Comments on the End of Time Projections
I made the chart in the previous post based solely on the post rate over each member's length of membership. Current post counts do not affect this computation, since over time a member posting more frequently will overtake those posting less frequently.
The longer someone has been a member, the more likely it is that their post rate has reached a steady state. Some members speed up after an initial period of lurking, while others slow down afer an initial flurry, and there is no simple way to predict this. To mitigate this effect, I have included only those who have been members 6 months or more.
--- At the Top ---
The top three,
Mr. Anderson,
wdlove, and
jsw, were projected to have these same end-of-time positions
six months ago.
Mr. Anderson's long-term rate has dropped by about 1 post per day,
wdlove's has increased by about half a post per day, and
jsw's is basically the same (up very slightly). Note that a change in posting habits by a long-term member, even over 6 months, will affect their long-term rate less than it would a shorter term member.
More surprising than the Top 3 are the many "new" faces among the Top 10, including three who are in the current Top 50:
Mechcozmo,
Blue Velvet,
mkrishnan
and two who are not:
Platform,
emw
It's worth noting, however, that three of them,
Mechcozmo,
Blue Velvet, and
emw, have been members only about a year and that
Platform just barely made the 6 month minimum.
mkrishnan has been a member almost 18 months. Time will tell if the relatively recent members are subject to the "burnout" (some call it "getting a life"
) effect we have seen for some high-posting members in the past.
I hereby eat my words from six months ago, when I said I would be surprised if
jsw and
Chip NoVaMac could maintain their posting rates. Both did, and in fact increased,
Chip NoVaMac's by more than 1 post per day. Note: I will not eat my cherished Q hat.
--- Changed members ---
Compared to the Top 50 today, the end-of-time Top 50 is vastly different.
Fifteen members projected to join the Top 50 list:
Platform,
emw,
maya,
iGary,
CanadaRAM,
munkle,
stubeeef,
mad jew,
Mitthrawnuruodo,
Daveway,
powermac666,
Applespider,
brap,
Hector,
Yvan256
Fifteen members projected to fall off the Top 50 list:
Dont Hurt Me,
arn,
AlphaTech,
krossfyter,
Kwyjibo,
Backtothemac,
nagromme,
cb911,
Mudbug,
stoid,
job,
teabgs,
mac15,
mischief,
Durandal7
Only
Mr. Anderson and
wdlove are projected to retain the positions they have now, at #1 and #2.
Member projected to miss staying in the Top 50 list by a mere .025 posts/day (one post every 40 days):
Dont Hurt Me
--- Changes in rank ---
Highest projected rise in rank:
Blue Velvet, up an amazing 32 slots
just ahead of
Mechcozmo, up 31 slots
Next highest:
mkrishnan and
PlaceofDis, each up 17 slots
Chip NoVaMac, up 16 slots
yellow, up 14 slots
jsw, up 13 slots
aswitcher, up 12 slots
Highest projected loss in rank:
jefhatfield, down 37 slots
Next highest:
MrMacman, down 27 slots
iJon,
iGAV, and
rainman::|:|, each down 26 slots
Special mention:
Platform, not currently in the Top 100, projected to be #7
CanadaRAM, also not currently in the Top 100, projected to be #21
--- Excluded members ---
Two members were not included because they were just shy of the 6-month minimum:
dotdotdot would have been #6
clayj would have been #7
For the record,
King Cobra would have been #40.
