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Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2007

iBookG4user said:
If I average 32 posts per day, then I'll be in the top fifty by the time the next one comes out in January. I'm off to a pretty good start, got over 40 posts today and yesterday and over 30 for a couple days before that.
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the things we shoot for. aren't dreams great? :)
 
you lot said:
RE: the (sexy) iBlue avatars
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I know I've had a lot of other avatars but somehow teh sexy™ avatars have become "my thing". :eek: Now I almost feel like I am disappointing people by using something else. Sometimes they get complaints though so I have to watch it. (there's always one to spoil it, eh?)
I'll go back soon, my little perverts.... as soon as my Triumph the comic insult dog + good weather wishes for the London picnic thing is over... and any other more tasteful things that tickle my fancy along the way. :p
 
imagine when were older.. i wonder if we will be here forever with 200,00 posts each.. the newbies wont have anything.

once you join MR its for life!!! hahahaha

this is an awsome forum :D
 
DoFoT9 said:
imagine when were older.. i wonder if we will be here forever with 200,00 posts each.. the newbies wont have anything.

once you join MR its for life!!! hahahaha

this is an awsome forum :D
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Have you not got your MR tattoo and microchip yet?
 
iBookG4user said:
I'm off to a pretty good start, got over 40 posts today and yesterday and over 30 for a couple days before that.
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iBookG4user said:
I posted over 81 times today so I managed to edge ahead of siurpeeman. 81 posts in one day is my new record.
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Even if you try to help other forum members, posting that rapidly is very much frowned upon here. Counting posts in hindsight (what I'm doing here) is interesting, but counting them as you make them is a sign of potential trouble. Despite good intentions you might have, it annoys other members to see the same name show up every few minutes all day long, so I suggest that you slow down. I know this thread (and my comments) produce a mixed message about this. In fact, here I am posting about slowing down just as I'm about to post my third chart about the people who post the most. :eek:
 
Doctor Q said:
Even if you try to help other forum members, posting that rapidly is very much frowned upon here. Counting posts in hindsight (what I'm doing here) is interesting, but counting them as you make them is a sign of potential trouble. Despite good intentions you might have, it annoys other members to see the same name show up every few minutes all day long, so I suggest that you slow down. I know this thread (and my comments) produce a mixed message about this. In fact, here I am posting about slowing down just as I'm about to post my third chart about the people who post the most. :eek:
Click to expand...
To follow up on that, we (I) tend to remove large chunks of posts if we feel someone is spamming for attention/a 'tar/the Marketplace/whatever.

To post just to bump your post count will often invite a visit by the Post Deletion Fairy. And believe me, the costume shows far too much of me, so you don't want to see it.
 
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Chart #3: "End of Time" Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q on July 4, 2007

Code: 
Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank
----  --------------  --------  ----  -----
  1   mad jew           30.1      1      0
  2   jsw               20.3      3     +1
  3   mkrishnan         17.3      5     +2
  4   devilot           15.7     17    +13
  5   WildCowboy        14.1     23    +18
  6   dynamicv          13.6     49    +43
  7   PlaceofDis        13.4     12     +5
  8   dmw007            12.2     19    +11
  9   Doctor Q          12.2      4     -5
 10   Blue Velvet       11.5     14     +4
 11   raggedjimmi       11.3     26    +15
 12   ~Shard~           11.3      7     -5
 13   MacRumorUser      10.9     38    +25
 14   iBlue             10.3     40    +26
 15   Abstract          10.2     15      0
 16   emw                9.8     20     +4
 17   yellow             9.8     13     -4
 18   psychofreak        9.5    ---    ---
 19   katie ta achoo     9.5     31    +12
 20   Chundles           9.3     32    +12
 21   CanadaRAM          9.0     27     +6
 22   Eidorian           8.7    ---    ---
 23   dcv                8.5    ---    ---
 24   Jaffa Cake         8.4     47    +23
 25   Mitthrawnuruodo    8.2     25      0
Code: 
Proj  Projection      Weighted  Cur   Delta
Rank  End of Time       Rate    Rank  Rank
----  --------------  --------  ----  -----
 26   bousozoku          7.9      8    -18
 27   iMeowbot           7.9     29     +2
 28   kretzy             7.8     43    +15
 29   EricNau            7.4    ---    ---
 30   MacNut             7.1    ---    ---
 31   balamw             7.0    ---    ---
 32   2nyRiggz           6.7    ---    ---
 33   robbieduncan       6.5     48    +15
 34   Mord               6.2     39     +5
 35   IJ Reilly          6.1    ---    ---
 36   bartelby           5.9     46    +10
 37   Applespider        5.7     30     -7
 38   zap2               5.4    ---    ---
 39   Lau                5.2    ---    ---
 40   Nermal             5.2     21    -19
 41   rdowns             5.1    ---    ---
 42   nagromme           4.9     36     -6
 43   twoodcc            4.9    ---    ---
 44   GFLPraxis          4.7    ---    ---
 45   mpw                4.6    ---    ---
 46   LimeiBook86        4.3    ---    ---
 47   skunk              4.2    ---    ---
 48   Counterfit         4.2     44     -4
 49   gekko513           4.2    ---    ---
 50   dpaanlka           4.1    ---    ---
Columns:
  1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
  2. Projection End of Time = members with the 50 highest projected post counts as time goes to infinity, based on a computed post rate.
  3. Weighted Rate = # posts per day by that member as a cascading weighted average, giving 50% weight to the most recent 6 months, 25% to the previous 6 months, 12.5% to the previous 6 months, and so on, with adjustments made based on the length of membership. See definition of weighted rate from July 2006.
  4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2007, or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
  5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank from now until the end of time.
 
jsw said:
To post just to bump your post count will often invite a visit by the Post Deletion Fairy. And believe me, the costume shows far too much of me, so you don't want to see it.
Click to expand...

*adds spam to thread* ;)
 
Comments on the End of Time Projections

I used my traditional weighted post rate formula. See the link in the previous post for a description of this formula.


At the Top

mad jew tops the End of Time projections, as he did last time. His weighted post rate has dropped only slightly, from 32.3 to 30.1 posts/day, so apparently he has the stamina to keep up his pace for eons.

Six months ago, mad jew's rate was 81% higher than jsw's, but jsw has taken it up a notch, so mad jew's rate is now only 48% higher.

Following mad jew and jsw are the "teens" -- those with weighted post rates between 13 and 19 posts/day: mkrishnan, devilot, WildCowboy, dynamicv, PlaceofDis. Rounding out the Top 10 are dmw007, Doctor Q, and Blue Velvet.

What appear to be ties in post rate can be resolved with more precision. dmw007 edges out Doctor Q 12.193 posts/day to 12.187 posts/day and raggedjimmi leads ~Shard~ 11.35 posts/day to 11.26 posts/day. The order of other apparently tied members was also determined by higher precision values.

The number of members with weighted rates of 10 or more posts/day is down from 18 to 15.

Measuring leads by either post rates or percentages, we find the biggest differences among the top posters:

Biggest lead by post rate:
9.8 posts/day lead: mad jew over jsw

Next biggest:
3.0 posts/day lead: jsw over mkrishnan
1.6 posts/day leads: mkrishnan over devilot, devilot over WildCowboy
1.2 posts/day lead: PlaceofDis over dmw007

Biggest leads by percentage:
48% lead: mad jew jsw
17% lead: jsw over mkrishnan
11% lead: devilot over WildCowboy
10% leads: mkrishnan over devilot and PlaceofDis over dmw007

Closest race by post rate:
skunk over Counterfit by 0.004 posts/day. That's a difference of 1.6 posts per year, or one post every 232 days!

Next closest:
dmw007 over Doctor Q, as mentioned above. The difference is equivalent to 2.3 posts per year, or one post every 160 days.

Closest race by percentage:
dmw007 over Doctor Q by 0.05%

Next closest:
skunk over Counterfit by 0.10%
Nermal over rdowns by 0.16%
gekko513 over dpaanlka by 0.34%


Changed members

As is usually the case, the End of Time Top 50 is very different from today's Top 50, because shorter-term members with high post rates show up among the top ranks.

Eighteen members (up from 17 last time) are projected to join the Top 50 list (sometime between now and the end of time):
psychofreak (#18), Eidorian (#22), dcv (#23), EricNau (#29), MacNut (#30), balamw (#31), 2nyRiggz (#32), IJ Reilly (#35), zap2 (#38), Lau (#39), rdowns (#41), twoodcc (#43), GFLPraxis (#44), mpw (#45), LimeiBook86 (#46), skunk (#47), gekko513 (#49), dpaanlka (#50)

None made the Top 10.

Eighteen members projected to fall off the current Top 50 list (in descending order by weighted post rate):
iGary, vniow, clayj, Sun Baked, Mr. Anderson, edesignuk/i], iGAV, arn, jelloshotsrule, Chip NoVaMac, Lacero, wdlove, scem0, Rower_CPU, jefhatfield, MacBandit, MrMacman, eyelikeart

Just missed the Top 50:
Sun Baked, with a weighted post rate of 4.0 (one post every 10 days)


Changes in rank

Highest projected rise in rank:
dynamicv, an astounding leap up 43 slots, from #49 to #6

Next highest (all those up 20 or more slots):
iBlue, up 26 slots from #40 to #14
MacRumorUser, up 25 slots from #38 to #13
Jaffa Cake, up 23 slots from #47 to #24

In an interesting coincidence, MacRumorUser's ascent exactly matches that predicted 6 months ago for katie ta achoo, who was also projected to rise the 25 slots from #38 to #13.

Highest projected loss in rank:
Nermal, dropping 19 slots, from #21 to #40

Next highest:
bousozoku, down 18 slots from #8 to #26

Three members retain their current rank: mad jew (#1), Abstract (#15), Mitthrawnuruodo (#25)


Trivia

psychofreak is not in the current Top 100, yet is projected to be in the Top 20 at the end of time!

Mechcozmo did not make the Top 50 list. With a long-term post rate of 4.6 posts/day and a short-term weight of 0.99 posts/day, his weighted post rate came out to 1.7 posts/day. On a Top 100 end-of-time list he would have been about #85.

Eight out of the Top 50 have a vowel as the first alphabetic of their username: iBlue, Abstract, emw, Eidorian, iMeowbot, EricNau, IJ Reilly, Applespider. Alphabetically, these letters spell "aaeeeiii", which is exactly the word I said when I learned of this fact.

The five MATLOC members (MAcrumors Three-LettOr Club) in the Top 50 are exactly the same as in the list from 6 months ago, and in the same order: jsw, emw, dcv, Lau, mpw

The Top 50 is 16% women. Since 6 months ago, women have broken into the Top 10 End of Time list, where they now hold 20% of the spots.

Based on total weighted post rate, the Top 50 will combine for one post every 3.2 minutes, 24 hours a day, for the rest of eternity.
 
Very interesting statistics, Doctor Q. I don't think I'll be able to make it into the Top 50 again... even if I maintain my posting rate of 10-11 or so posts per day (though my long-term average is considerably lower than that).
 
I guess my social life is getting better....I use to average like 10 post per day now down to like 4-6.

I think its because some of the topics these days are not as interesting as they were when I first joined up.



Bless
 
Wow 30, I better get posting if Im going to accomplish Q's numbers.:cool:
....but not today, Im going over to the beach.:)
 
Man, I remember I used to be real high on that list. Guess it was fun while it lasted.

jon
 
Perhaps I should congratulate those who aren't in these lists. You've made it to the real world! I hope some of you will tell me what the real world is like, in case I ever decide to venture out there.

I'll need to know simple stuff, like how to tell the sun apart from the moon, and how to cross the street safely with all those flying cars they must have by now.
 
Another member with a certain distinction: Colomb, whose official date of registration is June 5, 2000, but who has yet to post. Colomb was the first of many memberships transferred to the vBulletin-based forums.

Colomb has resisted the temptation to comment in any of the over 326,000 threads so far. Probably just waiting for an interesting topic to come up!

Long-term post rate: 0.000 posts/day.

Short-term post rate: 0.000 posts/day.

Position on the Top Infinity list of members: last.
 
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