Verizon to Preview New Android Devices, Not iPhone at CES?

[Geckotek]

Well, I am going out on a limb here and predicting that Verizon won't get the iPhone in 2011. I don't think that they will get it until their 4G LTE footprint is large enough (2013?). There are too many disadvantages to CDMA (slow speed, lack of concurrent voice/data). Apple would be going backwards if they supported CDMA.

The speed is fine and can still be upgraded (but I don't think they will). Simultaneous voice & data is also available.

These disadvantages to CDMA are a bug that AT&T has put in all it's user's ear. 92M ppl on Verizon right now know it's not true and issues like voice+data are already resolved if Verizon and Apple decide to.

 

[bergmef]

Like I said, there are probably some CDMA engineers on Apple's payroll and have been building CDMA prototypes (maybe from the very beginning).

That said, I do not believe that they have enough engineering talent to launch another handset based on sufficiently different network technologies. Apple's headcount is very, very small for a company of its size. There have been multiple instances in the past where it appears that Apple has struggled to stay on schedule because of limited HR.

One piece of evidence: they created a new group: a new device bringup group charged with launching new technology. The common belief is that Apple was grabbing engineers from their regular duties and having them work on new products (e.g., iPhone, iPad, iOS) which delayed improvements in existing products (e.g., Macs, OS X).

I think that Apple would spend a few dollars to bring on a few more CDMA engineers to bring up a production-caliber handset that would generate hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue. Just my opinion.

It's only the rf end of the phone so my guess is 2 engineers with 2 technicians. Really don't need more unless vacations get in the way.

We do avionics for military and civilian aircraft. Transmitters in the 700W range (RMS) and matching receivers (with distributions to send to the appropriate antenna (top or bottom, whether the aircraft is right side up or upside down)) and we employ 4 rf engineers and 3 techs to handle all the work.

 

[cvaldes]

Well, I am going out on a limb here and predicting that Verizon won't get the iPhone in 2011. I don't think that they will get it until their 4G LTE footprint is large enough (2013?). There are too many disadvantages to CDMA (slow speed, lack of concurrent voice/data). Apple would be going backwards if they supported CDMA.

Apple will put LTE in the iPhone when the vast majority of the world has built out their LTE networks (which is planned for 2012), hence 2013 sounds about right for an LTE-supported iPhone.

Right now, there is only one major market with an active LTE deployment. The U.S. Apple is not going to shove an expensive, power-hungry chip into a handset to offer LTE (whose spec isn't even finished) to service a fraction of one market on Earth.

 

[jacollins]

Predictions on how much Verizon's stock will DROP if they don't announce after all the rumors for CES?

 

[dmusicstud]

Apple - New Tech vs. Old Tech

Like they are doing with the DVD instead of Blu-ray?

I think your assumption is incorrect. Consider instead of DVD vs Blu-ray that Apple is embracing new media (digital downloads) over old tech (Optical Media, be it blu-ray or DVD). Not supporting Blu-ray is a statement that Blu-ray is a brief stepping stone to the newer digital downloable tech.

 

[ljova.com]

It would seem dumb to release a Verizon iPhone now, when a new one will be released in June. It would cause two different cycles for an identical product.

I.E. Verizon customers who get a new iPhone in January (if one was released), would be upset a new iPhone came out (with new features) months later.

I tend to agree - and as a Verizon customer myself, I'm actually thinking of holding out until the iPhone 5 release, regardless of what network it's on.

More people need to start singing the song...
http://youtu.be/N8fmc9h3ssE

 

[JGowan]

Why the F would/should Verizon introduce a Verizon iPhone. That is a STEVE/APPLE job. Now, when/if that happens (and it will), Steve will have the Verizon's CEO, Ivan Seidenberg, come out and gush about everything. Anyone thinking Verizon would/should intro such a device is delusional.

 

[7o7munoz7o7]

I have had no issues with AT&T support, and to the contrary, most I have heard have said Verizon's support is terrible (Sprint's too). There are too many variables in this (location, who you talk to, how you talk to them, the issue) to make a blanket statement. If you listen to MR posters, you would think Apple's support was the world's worst, but it consistently gets high marks.

i wish my comments came just from reading MR...i have had issues with AT&T ever since i switched. horrible cell service, even worse customer service. I have spoke with AT&T multiple times. I have even filed a complaint to the BBB about their horrible customer service. Its not a blanket statement, its true. Maybe you called a few times and got one or two ok reps, but over all as a company they are the worst customer service experience you can get. I have been saying that before the report came out to confirm it. And who complains about Apples tech support...They have been ranked number one tech support for 10 years in a row and that wont be changing anytime soon...cant say I follow what your saying...

 

[Geckotek]

Apple will put LTE in the iPhone when the vast majority of the world has built out their LTE networks (which is planned for 2012), hence 2013 sounds about right for an LTE-supported iPhone.

Right now, there is only one major market with an active LTE deployment. The U.S. Apple is not going to shove an expensive, power-hungry chip into a handset to offer LTE (whose spec isn't even finished) to service a fraction of one market on Earth.

Someone from Stockholm or Oslo will be in here to scold you shortly. Well, after they thaw out.

Predictions on how much Verizon's stock will DROP if they don't announce after all the rumors for CES?

Ooooh...time to short VZ?

 

[bearbear]

If voice+data was such a priority for somebody, they wouldn't be on Verizon in the first place. A CDMA iPhone doesn't need it.

As for the engineers, how many are on staff? They've probably had a working CDMA version of the iPhone since the beginning, just in case (like they did with intel version of OS X)

I've never seen people so upset over an announcement or more like just the thought of an announcement by Verizon.

 

[NKT]

I've never seen people so upset over an announcement or more like just the thought of an announcement by Verizon.

So true. Want to see some frothy posts? Post something about a deficiency in an Apple product or a rumor about a VZW iPhone

 

[jglavin]

Dollars to donuts there was a CDMA 3GS built and ready for production, and the deal was never struck. Same with the 4, but perhaps this time they actually made the deal and this thing will see the light of day.

They need to just do it, get it over with, so the rumor mills can move on finally.

 

[Geckotek]

Like I said, there are probably some CDMA engineers on Apple's payroll and have been building CDMA prototypes (maybe from the very beginning).

That said, I do not believe that they have enough engineering talent to launch another handset based on sufficiently different network technologies. Apple's headcount is very, very small for a company of its size. There have been multiple instances in the past where it appears that Apple has struggled to stay on schedule because of limited HR.

One piece of evidence: they created a new group: a new device bringup group charged with launching new technology. The common belief is that Apple was grabbing engineers from their regular duties and having them work on new products (e.g., iPhone, iPad, iOS) which delayed improvements in existing products (e.g., Macs, OS X).

I think that Apple would spend a few dollars to bring on a few more CDMA engineers to bring up a production-caliber handset that would generate hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue. Just my opinion.

So I was reading up on the CDMA job postings and someone mentioned that they've been going on since 2008. That rung a bell for me so I looked up the interview of Ivan Seidenberg by Fortune:

He called Jobs in December 2007 and told him, "We really ought to talk about how we do business together. We weren't able to [reach an agreement] a couple of years before, but it's probably worth having another discussion to make sure we're not missing something." Jobs, according to McAdam, replied, "Yeah, you're probably right. We have missed something."

One could easily deduce that they have been planning this for quite some time. At the very least, as you mentioned, working on prototypes. This also jives with what John Gruber has been saying about a CDMA lab @ Apple.

To me this means a Verizon iPhone will likely happen one day, and that CDMA will be in it somewhere. These things are not proof it will happen this coming quarter, but to say they don't have enough engineering talent?!? How would you even start to know something like that?

 

[InsanelyApple]

I'll reiterate what I said a few months ago:

I envision it going this way...

Ivan talks for 30-40 min about how it is building out it's 4G/LTE network, adding more coverage, yada yada yada..

Then he says, "Oh, and one more thing.." and Steve Jobs walks out. The rest is history.

I believe this will happen too.

 

[Zc456]

Yet another year of wacky rumors and reasons as to why the iPhone is coming to Verizon...

 

[cvaldes]

To me this means a Verizon iPhone will likely happen one day, and that CDMA will be in it somewhere. These things are not proof it will happen this coming quarter, but to say they don't have enough engineering talent?!? How would you even start to know something like that?

I don't know. I'm just guessing, which would seem to be reasonable at a site called MacRumors.

 

[shartypants]

Announcing the iPhone at this show wouldn't impact sales at all, who doesn't know about the iPhone?

 

[cvaldes]

I'll reiterate what I said a few months ago:

I envision it going this way...

Ivan talks for 30-40 min about how it is building out it's 4G/LTE network, adding more coverage, yada yada yada..

Then he says, "Oh, and one more thing.." and Steve Jobs walks out. The rest is history.

It would never happen this way.

Steve does not play second banana to anyone. If you don't understand that, you basically do not understand Apple.

 

[mytdave]

no big deal

T-Mobile and Three announced they were getting the iPhone in the UK without any statements from Apple.

Not the same. Apple had already announced the iPhone would be coming to other countries/carriers. VZ is different because it would have to be a new model of phone (due to the CDMA radio) even if it was still called an iPhone 4, and a VZ unit would be a huge event since the US is the only place left with an exclusivity contract intact...

...I also think any VZ announcement (for 2012) will be for an iPhone 5.

 

[InsanelyApple]

Announcing the iPhone at this show wouldn't impact sales at all, who doesn't know about the iPhone?

It would too impact sales since Verizon customers could finally get their hands on the iPhone. It would impact sales positively.

 

[ghostface147]

Second, why are people still talking about iPhone on any carrier other than ATT until 2012? Do people not remember that 5-year exclusivity contract? Unless ATT has agreed to let Apple out of the contract, there will be no VZ iPhone in 2011.

I suspect that they have bought out the contract. Maybe they renegotiated it when the two companies switched from offering full price phones to subsidized phones.

 

[MacDawg]

i wish my comments came just from reading MR...i have had issues with AT&T ever since i switched. horrible cell service, even worse customer service. I have spoke with AT&T multiple times. I have even filed a complaint to the BBB about their horrible customer service. Its not a blanket statement, its true. Maybe you called a few times and got one or two ok reps, but over all as a company they are the worst customer service experience you can get. I have been saying that before the report came out to confirm it. And who complains about Apples tech support...They have been ranked number one tech support for 10 years in a row and that wont be changing anytime soon...cant say I follow what your saying...

What I am saying is... if you look at MR you would think Apple support is horrible because of some of the customer experiences, and yet they rate very high.

I am sorry your AT&T support issues have been terrible. Mine have not. My support issues with Sprint were much worse. I have been happy with AT&T in every way.

 

[cvaldes]

Announcing the iPhone at this show wouldn't impact sales at all, who doesn't know about the iPhone?

Of course sales would be impacted. Some people would hold off on iPhone purchases to be able to jump to a different network.

From a financial (revenue) perspective, it would be in Apple's best interest not to pre-announce a handset on Verizon's network (or any other CDMA network for that matter). If they are ready to sell it, they will just say "come and get it" or "ready in a week or so." There is no advantage to quashing a month or two of sales.

 

[Geckotek]

What I am saying is... if you look at MR you would think Apple support is horrible because of some of the customer experiences, and yet they rate very high.

I am sorry your AT&T support issues have been terrible. Mine have not. My support issues with Sprint were much worse. I have been happy with AT&T in every way.

That's like my experience with Verizon, it was always top-notch. Sprint on the other hand, not so much. AT&T...not great/not awful.

Everyone's experience will be different. The one thing all of these carriers have in common is that they spend as little as they can on CS. Just enough to keep the users from leaving in droves.

 

[OllyW]

Not the same. Apple had already announced the iPhone would be coming to other countries/carriers. VZ is different because it would have to be a new model of phone (due to the CDMA radio) even if it was still called an iPhone 4, and a VZ unit would be a huge event since the US is the only place left with an exclusivity contract intact...

...I also think any VZ announcement (for 2012) will be for an iPhone 5.

I agree, I expect any Verizon announcement to come direct from Jobs. I was just answering another poster who said Apple always made the announcement first in similar situations to those I gave.