Waiting for the 2017 MBP (Kaby Lake / Cannonlake / Coffee Lake??)

[wheelhot]

This one is golden. I can visualize a life with dongles and unified ports, shall move on and continue using SJ-era mbps.

Haha, though I admit the video is funny, I'll say that it's more clickbait (anything that says bad things about the new MBPs will get more clicks) then actual useful content as what you'll need is to just get 4 pieces of USB-C to USB-A adapter, these are direct converters so it's small and much cheaper then buying those hubs.

Since these adapters are so cheap, you can even permanently attach them to your USB-A cables.

I read they skipped it this time because the quads weren't ready yet (for 15").

Huh, what you mean quads are skipped for the 15"?? Last I check, the 15" MBPs are running on Quad i7s

 

[Verix]

Huh, what you mean quads are skipped for the 15"?? Last I check, the 15" MBPs are running on Quad i7s

Lastest gen intel quad-core chips is what he means.

 

[TheRealAlex]

#1. Kaby Lake is only available in Dual Core form on mobile chips.
#2. Only way to get a Quad Core Kaby Lake is to use a Desktop class Quad Core CPU
#3. Only way to get a Mobile Quad Core Kaby Lake is to wait for Cannon Lake.

 

[wheelhot]

#1. Kaby Lake is only available in Dual Core form on mobile chips.
#2. Only way to get a Quad Core Kaby Lake is to use a Desktop class Quad Core CPU
#3. Only way to get a Mobile Quad Core Kaby Lake is to wait for Cannon Lake.

So looks like Apple might not update the 15" MBP till Cannonlake, if I recall they did this before?

 

[curmudgeonette]

#3. Only way to get a Mobile Quad Core Kaby Lake is to wait for Cannon Lake.

A leaked Intel timeline from earlier this year shows:

Desktop quad core Kaby Lake available December to January.
Mobile quad core Kaby Lake available January.
Mobile dual core Kaby Lake with GT3e graphics available February to May.

 

[karbim]

Of course, the Skylake used in the new MBP was available almost a year ago. So if Intel hits target of early 2017, you can count for their inclusion in a spec bump in 2018 (plus taking into account the measly improvements).

 

[johngwheeler]

#1. Kaby Lake is only available in Dual Core form on mobile chips.
#2. Only way to get a Quad Core Kaby Lake is to use a Desktop class Quad Core CPU
#3. Only way to get a Mobile Quad Core Kaby Lake is to wait for Cannon Lake.

I'm not sure #3 is correct - AFAIK a Kaby Lake 45W quad-core (H-family) is planned before the end of 2016:

http://wccftech.com/intel-kaby-lake-roadmap-2016-2017/

Sure, it will only have GT2 graphics, but so does the current 2016 MBP 15"!

The 2 + 3e U-series for the MBP 13 will not be available until Feb/March 2017.

I have no idea if the KL roadmap shown is accurate or on-schedule, but it does seem to suggest that the quad-core 45W KLs for the MBP 15 could be available quite soon. Even so, I don't expect any MBP refreshes before WDC 17.

John

 

[campyguy]

This one is golden. I can visualize a life with dongles and unified ports, shall move on and continue using SJ-era mbps.

My GF is not and never wants to be dongle-free, and I'm thankful for that preference. :evil grin:

 

[monkeydax]

I'm not sure #3 is correct - AFAIK a Kaby Lake 45W quad-core (H-family) is planned before the end of 2016:

http://wccftech.com/intel-kaby-lake-roadmap-2016-2017/

Sure, it will only have GT2 graphics, but so does the current 2016 MBP 15"!

The 2 + 3e U-series for the MBP 13 will not be available until Feb/March 2017.

I have no idea if the KL roadmap shown is accurate or on-schedule, but it does seem to suggest that the quad-core 45W KLs for the MBP 15 could be available quite soon. Even so, I don't expect any MBP refreshes before WDC 17.

John

Considering production only in Nov-Dec, I doubt we're going to see that in any MBPs in 2017.

 

[Garrett998]

I'm considering potentially holding out until WWDC for a potential 15" spec bump/refresh. I am also hesitant to purchase a first generation product but don't really want to wait until fall 2017 if there won't be a bump/refresh before then. I have a few questions though if anyone has expertise to share.

1. What are the chances that Apple will skip Kaby Lake and hold out for Coffee Lake (aka Cannon Lake)? Have they skipped CPU generations in the past? As far as I can tell, the Kaby Lake chips suitable for the 15" MBP should be available in Q1 2017.

2. I know 32GB of RAM is not an option because the low power variant of DDR3 RAM currently used maxes out at 16GB and the lower power variant of DDR4 RAM is not compatible with Skylake. Would compatibility come with Kaby Lake and could we therefore see 32GB of the lower power variant of DDR4 later this year?

3. What are the chances that Apple will switch back to Nvidia for graphics? Has Apple tended to use proprietary cards with Nvidia like the AMD Radeon Pro Series? If not, what current Nvidia chips would be possibly seen in a refresh?

4. Do you think Apple will lower the cost of any (or all) of the models with the refresh? And I mean the new bumped/refreshed models, obviously the current model will get discounted at some retailers.

I'm not so concerned about the marginal CPU power/efficiency difference between Skylake and Kaby Lake, but rather the possibility for 32GB of low power RAM, improved Nvidia graphics, and any tweaks with the first generation TB rMBP being ruled out.

 

[karbim]

1. Very high
2. Not going to happen before 2018
3. Not any time soon, maybe for the next major update (in 4-5 years) or when they go for their home made chip
4. It's possible they'll get a $100 reduction in price within the year, nothing life changing

The difference between Skylake and Kaby Lake won't be measurable in real life activities...

 

[thekev]

I'm considering potentially holding out until WWDC for a potential 15" spec bump/refresh. I am also hesitant to purchase a first generation product but don't really want to wait until fall 2017 if there won't be a bump/refresh before then. I have a few questions though if anyone has expertise to share.

1. What are the chances that Apple will skip Kaby Lake and hold out for Coffee Lake (aka Cannon Lake)? Have they skipped CPU generations in the past? As far as I can tell, the Kaby Lake chips suitable for the 15" MBP should be available in Q1 2017.

2. I know 32GB of RAM is not an option because the low power variant of DDR3 RAM currently used maxes out at 16GB and the lower power variant of DDR4 RAM is not compatible with Skylake. Would compatibility come with Kaby Lake and could we therefore see 32GB of the lower power variant of DDR4 later this year?

3. What are the chances that Apple will switch back to Nvidia for graphics? Has Apple tended to use proprietary cards with Nvidia like the AMD Radeon Pro Series? If not, what current Nvidia chips would be possibly seen in a refresh?

4. Do you think Apple will lower the cost of any (or all) of the models with the refresh? And I mean the new bumped/refreshed models, obviously the current model will get discounted at some retailers.

I'm not so concerned about the marginal CPU power/efficiency difference between Skylake and Kaby Lake, but rather the possibility for 32GB of low power RAM, improved Nvidia graphics, and any tweaks with the first generation TB rMBP being ruled out.

1. It depends on what processors are released for Kaby Lake. Notebooks are Apple's best selling macs. In the past they were kept up to date.

2. Apple tends to limit configurations wherever possible. It unlikely later this year as it's a major change. Apple doesn't use sodimms for memory. It's soldered directly to the board.

3. They go back and forth. I don't know where karbim comes up with his predictions. They used NVidia in 2012 and a nearly identical one in 2013. They have used AMD since then. No one has spotted out a definitive pattern, but it's probably influenced by cost, power consumption, availability, etc.

4. Apple increased pricing base model pricing on the 15" by $400 when it debuted the retina macbook pro. It's the same increase this time. That one dropped by $200 when they came out with an option that only used integrated graphics. It specifically used iris pro, so the cpu option was slightly more costly, but it lacked a discrete gpu. They dropped it back to $2000 at that time. Right now the 2015 model occupies the $2000 spot. Something else might occupy that later. Wait and see. No one can tell you more than that. I personally think they're going to take a (well deserved) beating based on price. 14-15" tends to be the most popular size for other brands. The 13" models were more popular with Apple partly due to pricing. Right now they are very top heavy, and they're still a mass market brand. They're expected to sell millions of these per quarter and may find that hard to keep up when they offer poor value, specifically a high starting price with constrained storage.

 

[GeorgeVes]

What's the integrated GPU going to be inside that 45W quad core Kaby Lake? Cause the current HD530 is quite laggy compared to last year's Iris Pro...

 

[bab5139]

I dont think they will need to use lpddr4. DDR3 runs @1.5v, LPDDR3 @1.1v, DDR4 @1.2 and LPDDR4 @1.1. Thats only a 9% difference. I would suspect that all they need is a processor type to run ddr 4 which Kabby lake can.

Im not sure if they would upgrade the laptop that soon. Im in the same boat though. I have a new one on my desk but its most likely going back. I cant spent that type of money for a max of 16 gigs. It's annoying.

 

[xmonkey]

I'm considering potentially holding out until WWDC for a potential 15" spec bump/refresh. I am also hesitant to purchase a first generation product but don't really want to wait until fall 2017 if there won't be a bump/refresh before then. I have a few questions though if anyone has expertise to share.

1. What are the chances that Apple will skip Kaby Lake and hold out for Coffee Lake (aka Cannon Lake)? Have they skipped CPU generations in the past? As far as I can tell, the Kaby Lake chips suitable for the 15" MBP should be available in Q1 2017. Apple has skipped before, on the 15" (they skipped Broadwell).

2. I know 32GB of RAM is not an option because the low power variant of DDR3 RAM currently used maxes out at 16GB and the lower power variant of DDR4 RAM is not compatible with Skylake. Would compatibility come with Kaby Lake and could we therefore see 32GB of the lower power variant of DDR4 later this year?

3. What are the chances that Apple will switch back to Nvidia for graphics? Has Apple tended to use proprietary cards with Nvidia like the AMD Radeon Pro Series? If not, what current Nvidia chips would be possibly seen in a refresh?

4. Do you think Apple will lower the cost of any (or all) of the models with the refresh? And I mean the new bumped/refreshed models, obviously the current model will get discounted at some retailers.

I'm not so concerned about the marginal CPU power/efficiency difference between Skylake and Kaby Lake, but rather the possibility for 32GB of low power RAM, improved Nvidia graphics, and any tweaks with the first generation TB rMBP being ruled out.

1. IMO, highly likely they skip it. There are not enough major changes with KL to motivate Apple to switch to it.

2. Supposedly only the Ultra Low Voltage chips (8W/15W) for KL will support LPDDR4. The 28W and 45W CPUs will still be only capable of DDR4. Coffee/Cannon Lake should bring LPDDR4 to the higher wattage parts.

3. I can only see Apple doing this if Nvidia starts making drastically lower wattage mobile chips. Right now they're all too high for Apple's design goals. The 1050m runs at a pretty low wattage, but it's not exactly much better than the 460.

4. Very likely the price drops. My guess is $200 across the board. We're paying a fairly high early-adopter tax currently.

What's the integrated GPU going to be inside that 45W quad core Kaby Lake? Cause the current HD530 is quite laggy compared to last year's Iris Pro...

It will be GT2 series (comparable to current HD530, some improvement still), there is no Iris Pro Quad-core on the roadmap for KL and it's likely this is why Apple has gone back to a dGPU in every 15" model.

 

[johngwheeler]

Considering production only in Nov-Dec, I doubt we're going to see that in any MBPs in 2017.

The "ready to sell" date is allegedly planned for December 2016 (i.e. next month), maybe slipping a month or two, but even so what makes you think Apple would not do a spec bump to Katy Lake for a whole year (2017)?

I know Apple are slow to get new CPUs into their machine, but waiting a whole year for a drop-in processor upgrade? The current MBP was a bit different because there was a redesign as a well an updated CPU.

I would be surprised if there weren't a silent Kaby Lake update in mid-2017 because all the other vendors will have it then too, and it is probably only a minor update for Apple to keep them competitive.

 

[wheelhot]

From what I see, Apple updating only the 13" to KL is more likely then 15" as there's hardly any meaningful performance gains of KL for the 15".

And I do wonder, with Apple current trend of keeping old model to keep entry price low, (previous gen iPhone 6s being sold alongside iPhone 7, applies to iPads as well, rMBP alongside MBP), will they continue this trend forward? (rMBP alongside MBP or 2016 MBP alongside 2017 MBP?)

 

[bab5139]

More power efficiency alone is enough to me to say that Apple will move forward with Kabby Lake. That's why we got stuck with LPDDR3. As well as support for DDR4, optane storage tech, HDCP 2.2 (you can't stream 4k videos from netflix on your brand new 2016). I think that would be enough. However what is more telling is that apple usually waits 250+ days to upgrade the MacBook line. So I would expect an upgrade in September before school starts or a little afterward. But you never know with apple; it's all speculation.

 

[karbim]

...HDCP 2.2 (you can't stream 4k videos from netflix on your brand new 2016)...

Of course you can. The dGPU will take care of this with no issue.

 

[wheelhot]

More power efficiency alone is enough to me to say that Apple will move forward with Kabby Lake. That's why we got stuck with LPDDR3. As well as support for DDR4, optane storage tech, HDCP 2.2 (you can't stream 4k videos from netflix on your brand new 2016). I think that would be enough. However what is more telling is that apple usually waits 250+ days to upgrade the MacBook line. So I would expect an upgrade in September before school starts or a little afterward. But you never know with apple; it's all speculation.

DDR4 is unlikely as they'll want LPDDR4 (as far as I recall, there won't be LPDDR4 KL) unless they change their opinion about it.

I thought can't stream only for 13" MBPs? The Radeon Pros should have support for 4K streaming.

 

[bab5139]

@wheelhot - yea maybe. After relooking up the memory voltages, it's not as black and white as I first thought it was. Considering the voltage for LPDDR3 is 1.1v, DDR4 is 1.2v and LPDDR4 is 1.1v there is only a 9% difference between the two types. I have a feeling that the answer was part an engineering one as well as part a business decision. It's more expensive, would eat into profit margins, etc. It's possible that moving to kabby lake would make up the difference but i'm sure it's more complex than that. Im still looking for the amps or watts to really be able to compare them. It might be that the amps on lpddr3 are half as much as ddr4 which then would make more sense to me

You're probably right about the 460 and HDCP. I keep forgetting that card is in the machine. It's that forgettable

 

[rasputin1969]

A leaked Intel timeline from earlier this year shows:

Desktop quad core Kaby Lake available December to January.
Mobile quad core Kaby Lake available January.
Mobile dual core Kaby Lake with GT3e graphics available February to May.

Yes. The real screw-up here is that Apple should have released these skylake machines in the summer and then refreshed them with Kaby lake in March 2017.

 

[karbim]

Yes. The real screw-up here is that Apple should have released these skylake machines in the summer and then refreshed them with Kaby lake in March 2017.

Nope, Intel doesn't have yield that is good enough for Apple's production levels. And they would not release a 13" that's "better" than a 15" which doesn't make any marketing sense (less tempting to upgrade to 15" for users who could do with a smaller screen).

 

[curmudgeonette]

(you can't stream 4k videos from netflix on your brand new 2016)

Of course you can. The dGPU will take care of this with no issue.

The key word here is Netflix. For their 4K content, they're using some DRM feature that is only present in Kaby Lake.

 

[wheelhot]

The key word here is Netflix. For their 4K content, they're using some DRM feature that is only present in Kaby Lake.

Interesting, though I'm pretty sure Netflix would have an alternative for those not using KL as it doesn't make sense for them to get their customers to go out and buy a new notebook if they want to watch 4K