Waiting for the 2018 MBP

[skogkatt]

On a general level, what really worries me is that nowadays Macs account for approximately 10% of Apple's revenue. 10% only. If the allocation of internal resources is proportional to this figure... good luck with our renwed and revamped MBPs... 😕

 

[RJ2010115]

Judging by the numbers Apple Insider gathered, the keyboard failure rate isn‘t too bad - the keyboard is the cause for 11.8% of all defects on the 2016, 8.1% of all defects on the 2017 model. Considering a lot of MBPs don‘t have any defects within the first year, these numbers aren‘t too bad. Especially the 2017 MBP isn‘t too far away from the previous design with ~6% of defects attributed to the keyboard.

IMHO, these numbers are certainly no reason to avoid the current MBP.

https://iphone.appleinsider.com/art...s-failing-twice-as-frequently-as-older-models

And there's more. I have a Macbook Pro 15 2016 and had the keyboard (top case) replaced without a real failure of the keyboard.

What I have (and everybody has,AFAIK - even 2017 Macbook pro's) is, when the keyboard gets hot (gaming or high usage) the keys start to sound different and become more sticky. This doesn't change the performance nor reliability, just sounds and feels different. As far as I know, apple doesn't consider this a defect, just the way it works, and when the keyboard gets cooler, this goes away.

They did change the top case, and I suppose some of those 11,8% and 8,1% is because of that.
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On a general level, what really worries me is that nowadays Macs account for approximately 10% of Apple's revenue. 10% only. If the allocation of internal resources is proportional to this figure... good luck with our renwed and revamped MBPs... 😕

10% is more than iPads(7%) and much more than the "other" section (6%) of their revenue. And "other" includes homepod, apple watch, airpods, ipods, apple tv's and every cable and accessory.

I think we're safe...

 

[EugW]

Judging by the numbers Apple Insider gathered, the keyboard failure rate isn‘t too bad - the keyboard is the cause for 11.8% of all defects on the 2016, 8.1% of all defects on the 2017 model. Considering a lot of MBPs don‘t have any defects within the first year, these numbers aren‘t too bad. Especially the 2017 MBP isn‘t too far away from the previous design with ~6% of defects attributed to the keyboard.

IMHO, these numbers are certainly no reason to avoid the current MBP.

https://iphone.appleinsider.com/art...s-failing-twice-as-frequently-as-older-models

As the article states, the 11.8% quoted for the 2016 is twice as much as the 2014 model. It's hard to compare this way though since it's percentages.

Another way is consider this is by absolute numbers. I'm not sure how many units were sold, but the number of warranty events for the 2016 overall was lower, but the number of warranty events for the keyboard specifically was significantly higher.

2014 - 118
2015 - 114
2016 - 165 <-- This represents a 40-45% increase in absolute number of warranty events due to the keyboard.
2017 - incomplete data since they only have a partial year's worth of data.

 

[Poki]

As the article states, the 11.8% quoted for the 2016 is twice as much as the 2014 model. It's hard to compare this way though since it's percentages.

Another way is consider this is by absolute numbers. I'm not sure how many units were sold, but the number of warranty events for the 2016 overall was lower, but the number of warranty events for the keyboard specifically was significantly higher.

2014 - 118
2015 - 114
2016 - 165 <-- This represents a 40-45% increase in absolute number of warranty events due to the keyboard.
2017 - incomplete data since they only have a partial year's worth of data.

I'm afraid that's the closest we'll get to indicative numbers. I still think that those percentages aren't too bad. Even on the 2016 model, the keyboard represents just 1 in 10 defect MacBook Pros. And if we assume that less than 10% of MacBook Pros fail in the first year (unfortunately I do not have data on this, but I wouldn't think the number is higher than that), the keyboard problem affects less than 1% of all 2016 MacBook Pros sold. Which, by all means, isn't a huge risk to take.

 

[EugW]

I'm afraid that's the closest we'll get to indicative numbers. I still think that those percentages aren't too bad. Even on the 2016 model, the keyboard represents just 1 in 10 defect MacBook Pros. And if we assume that less than 10% of MacBook Pros fail in the first year (unfortunately I do not have data on this, but I wouldn't think the number is higher than that), the keyboard problem affects less than 1% of all 2016 MacBook Pros sold. Which, by all means, isn't a huge risk to take.

Remember, this is only in the first year, under warranty. Stuff like defective keyboards may take longer time to manifest. This type of damage may be cumulative.

 

[Poki]

Remember, this is only in the first year, under warranty. Stuff like defective keyboards may take longer time to manifest. This type of damage may be cumulative.

That sure may be the case, but that has also been the case with various defects in the 2015 and prior MBPs. This data shows that within the first year, the 2016 and especially the 2017 MacBook Pro is not much more likely to fail, as opposed to many opinions on the internet. That's pretty much all I'm trying to say. Without long term data on all models, we cannot conclude anything about long term reliability anyway.

 

[MrGunnyPT]

On a general level, what really worries me is that nowadays Macs account for approximately 10% of Apple's revenue. 10% only. If the allocation of internal resources is proportional to this figure... good luck with our renwed and revamped MBPs... 😕

There's more Windows machine than ever, plus don't forget that the Macs are really freaking expensive compared to that 150$ notebook that your aunt uses to scroll on Facebook

 

[travod]

Still nothing

yawn

maybe I'll just do my first big purchase on a phone. If the new iPhone comes out before Macbooks...

 

[MrGunnyPT]

Still nothing

yawn

maybe I'll just do my first big purchase on a phone. If the new iPhone comes out before Macbooks...

New Macbooks in June, don't forget.

Save up, no point of spending for spending on either phone or macbook right now with upgrades coming within the next 3 months

 

[wxkkeup]

New Macbooks in June, don't forget.

Save up, no point of spending for spending on either phone or macbook right now with upgrades coming within the next 3 months

edit: in 1 month & 2 days

 

[inksane]

On a general level, what really worries me is that nowadays Macs account for approximately 10% of Apple's revenue. 10% only. If the allocation of internal resources is proportional to this figure... good luck with our renwed and revamped MBPs... 😕

It may be 10% of apples revenue but those macs are used to develop macOS software and iOS apps since macOS is required at least to sign those apps and upload them to the store. They won't abandon macs even if it's 1% of the revenue because 'having a good system' makes you 'want' to develop apps for that system.

 

[The Reasonable One]

That's my take. I'm running a 2013 15". Very nice machine but horrible, horrible image retention on display. I sat through 2016 because of less than positive reviews, the price increase, etc. Sat though 2017 because it did not change. 2018 is my year to replace my current MBP. If Apple still sends out what it has the last two years, I am likely to try Dell or Lenovo. Booting Windows to a desktop rather than using the tiles gives an experience more like MacOS.

I have no complaints about the Apple tax as long as I don't have to read about problems like I have seen with the last two model years. Design elements that almost require the expensive Applecare plus purchase. C'mon Apple, swallow some pride and dump the "art" vision of computers.

Dude the image retention sucks. If I had heard you had this issue a year or so ago I would have told you what I did. I complained going into an apple store requesting to see a manager for my 2012 15 rMBP for 3 months until they acknowledged that this was a bad problem and was their fault. Then they told me there was nothing they could do unless I called some line that they gave me. I called them and yelled st them for like 20 minutes and they replaced everything because. They replaced my heat sink, display, upper chassi, battery, and gpu while also upgrading me to 16 gb of ram from 8 unexpectedly because this occurred in 2015 and they didn’t stock the 8 gb version anymore. All of this was free and my image retention was gone and I had an essentially new computer that lasted me til January or February when it’s gpu decided to not show up for work. If you bought the computer within the last 3 years the extended warranty I forced them to let me use me should still cover you but I doubt you bought it that recently.

 

[jeremiah256]

Apple needs to get back to producing the best computers it can, not just what looks good and sells, it's really a vortex right now, with the entire computer line a mess. Apple needs to straighten up, serve it's customers first and foremost rest will happen. Right now Apple is just burning it's hard earned reputation...

Q-6

They are producing computers that sell reasonably well, therefore they are serving their customers. It just might be the average Macrumors member is no longer the customer they want or need.

 

[maflynn]

It just might be the average Macrumors member is no longer the customer they want or need.

I don't think that's the case, there are complaints, and I was (and continue) to be disppointed in a number of facets related to the MBP, but I think overall its an excellent machine. I'm saddened by the lack of response regarding the keyboards and it leads me to think that we'll not see any sort of changes to the keyboard in 2018

 

[AdamA9]

They are producing computers that sell reasonably well, therefore they are serving their customers. It just might be the average Macrumors member is no longer the customer they want or need.

That's the problem with forums like this, everyone who reads threads like this feel like they need the most because someone else said they wanted to most and so on and so forth.

Until I found this thread I was just going to buy whatever comes out. No questions asked. I just want a new laptop. Now I find myself wanting more RAM than I need and a quicker CPU than I need because threads like this tell me Apple should be offering the customers the best of the best. When really, the ~20m units they sell a year are to people who really probably couldn't tell the difference. They're the target for Apple it seems.

 

[Ma2k5]

That's the problem with forums like this, everyone who reads threads like this feel like they need the most because someone else said they wanted to most and so on and so forth.

Until I found this thread I was just going to buy whatever comes out. No questions asked. I just want a new laptop. Now I find myself wanting more RAM than I need and a quicker CPU than I need because threads like this tell me Apple should be offering the customers the best of the best. When really, the ~20m units they sell a year are to people who really probably couldn't tell the difference. They're the target for Apple it seems.

I think this thread just highlights that people want only things that their competitiors already be providing or Apple has previously provided - which isn't unreasonable. Things like:

- 32 GB Ram as an option
- Keyboard that is less prone to disaster
- F keys instead of touch bar (or a reworked touchbar) as an option
- Power extension cable that came bundled before so we don't have to feel static
- 1080p front camera
- Maximum battery capacities (e.g. 99.5wh as previous versions)
- Provide a dock, similar to ASUS does for the Zenbook 3 (would kill off all port complaints)

Could go a bit more into things like some magsafe alternative, or a smaller trackpad too etc. This may look like it is asking for a lot, but really it isn't - especially considering the competition and also considering the premium we are all happy to pay for it.

Now, if we asked for 64GB/128GB ram on these laptops, GTX 1070+, dual CPU etc I'd agree that they are just farfetched needs (some laptops may support them but they are a brick and/or have cooling issues).

You hit the nail on the head with the consumer anecdote - that most who pay may not even realise these omissions so they will continue to sell. But that doesn't

a) Make it right
b) Mean we are spoilt or entitlted users wanting the "very best". Majority of us are just asking to match competitor offerings
c) I am not saying that the target should be us - the target should be to keep up / beat the competition

You guys remember how popular Beats Headphones were when they were actually a load of crap tech, but got sales due to brand name (thankfully now they are not POS and have been vastly improved since Apples takeover)? Let's hope that doesn't end up the case for MacBooks in the future, which end up lagging behind the competition and only sell due to being Apple.

 

[mdbradigan]

I think this thread just highlights that people want only things that their competitiors already be providing or Apple has previously provided - which isn't unreasonable. Things like:

- 32 GB Ram as an option
- Keyboard that is more prone to disaster
- F keys instead of touch bar (or a reworked touchbar) as an option
- Power extension cable that came bundled before so we don't have to feel static
- 1080p front camera
- Maximum battery capacities (e.g. 99.5wh as previous versions)
- Provide a dock, similar to ASUS does for the Zenbook 3 (would kill off all port complaints)

Could go a bit more into things like some magsafe alternative, or a smaller trackpad too etc. This may look like it is asking for a lot, but really it isn't - especially considering the competition and also considering the premium we are all happy to pay for it.

Now, if we asked for 64GB/128GB ram on these laptops, GTX 1070+, dual CPU etc I'd agree that they are just farfetched needs (some laptops may support them but they are a brick and/or have cooling issues).

You hit the nail on the head with the consumer anecdote - that most who pay may not even realise these omissions so they will continue to sell. But that doesn't

a) Make it right
b) Mean we are spoilt or entitlted users wanting the "very best". Majority of us are just asking to match competitor offerings
c) I am not saying that the target should be us - the target should be to keep up / beat the competition

You guys remember how popular Beats Headphones were when they were actually a load of crap tech, but got sales due to brand name (thankfully now they are not POS and have been vastly improved since Apples takeover)? Let's hope that doesn't end up the case for MacBooks in the future, which end up lagging behind the competition and only sell due to being Apple.

So much ^ this. Great post.

I love Mac OS - and I'm willing to pay a premium to use it over competitive Windows-running products...but the key is competitive. The competition is no longer "catching up" - it is now surging ahead. Apple needs to step up their game or, eventually, people are going to realize it's just not worth the premium anymore. Hopefully the new "pro-focus" that Apple has been espousing isn't just lip service. I guess we'll find out in just over a month. My $ is sitting here ready for an upgrade - but $3k+ for a device I can get for $2k elsewhere with the main differentiating factor being solely OS isn't going to fly.

 

[Falhófnir]

- 32 GB Ram as an option

Would require a completely separate SKU (with few shared parts with ostensibly similar models) for what would be an extremely low-volume model. It sucks Apple don’t offer the option for those who need it, but at this point in time, intel’s messing around is more to blame than Apple themselves are. If Apple had known the cannonlake and on 10nm designs were going to be pushed back and back there might have been a case for building that machine, as things are by the time they’ve engineered it, the chips will probably support it.

 

[socialwill]

So much ^ this. Great post.

I love Mac OS - and I'm willing to pay a premium to use it over competitive Windows-running products...but the key is competitive. The competition is no longer "catching up" - it is now surging ahead. Apple needs to step up their game or, eventually, people are going to realize it's just not worth the premium anymore. Hopefully the new "pro-focus" that Apple has been espousing isn't just lip service. I guess we'll find out in just over a month. My $ is sitting here ready for an upgrade - but $3k+ for a device I can get for $2k elsewhere with the main differentiating factor being solely OS isn't going to fly.

I like your point that while the OS has some advantages for me personally, almost everything I do can be done in Windows as well. However I like the Apple ecosystem and what it brings but it will be a hard sell to have a laptop that has decent specs when other systems are rapidly catching up

What I believe might happen this year is we will see a couple of new Surface laptops from Microsoft with TH3, updated specs and in 2 possible sizes. Both a 13 and a 15 version. The 15 might include a GPU, maybe the AMD one. We have several Surface laptops in use and people love them. While not the most powerful rig, they are light, have a 3:2 amazing screen, support touch, have a good keyboard, a magnetic power supply, and great battery life. Bump them to quad core and add TB3 and you have serious machine (maybe ditch the fabric?)

Apple needs to turn its Pro devices into serious Pro devices. Yes, they are thin enough, so it is not a size issue but more on what the device can do and how it works.

 

[TailsToo]

So much ^ this. Great post.

I love Mac OS - and I'm willing to pay a premium to use it over competitive Windows-running products...but the key is competitive. The competition is no longer "catching up" - it is now surging ahead. Apple needs to step up their game or, eventually, people are going to realize it's just not worth the premium anymore. Hopefully the new "pro-focus" that Apple has been espousing isn't just lip service. I guess we'll find out in just over a month. My $ is sitting here ready for an upgrade - but $3k+ for a device I can get for $2k elsewhere with the main differentiating factor being solely OS isn't going to fly.

Same here - I can't justify what it would cost to get a MBP with a 1TB hard drive. SO much more than Windows based PCs with superior specs.

Apple just announced a $100 billion stock buyback - how about being more competitive in the market? That iPhone money won 't always be around.

 

[MrGunnyPT]

edit: in 1 month & 2 days

Meant for both iPhone & Macbook on that post because he wanted to buy both things.

I like your point that while the OS has some advantages for me personally, almost everything I do can be done in Windows as well. However I like the Apple ecosystem and what it brings but it will be a hard sell to have a laptop that has decent specs when other systems are rapidly catching up

What I believe might happen this year is we will see a couple of new Surface laptops from Microsoft with TH3, updated specs and in 2 possible sizes. Both a 13 and a 15 version. The 15 might include a GPU, maybe the AMD one. We have several Surface laptops in use and people love them. While not the most powerful rig, they are light, have a 3:2 amazing screen, support touch, have a good keyboard, a magnetic power supply, and great battery life. Bump them to quad core and add TB3 and you have serious machine (maybe ditch the fabric?)

Apple needs to turn its Pro devices into serious Pro devices. Yes, they are thin enough, so it is not a size issue but more on what the device can do and how it works.

This, plus Windows laptops are always giving me issues and with Apple at least I can get a brand new machine on the next day or so like I did in the past...

Having to wait 3 months for DELL to RMA is a hell of a joke.

Or 6 months process with the Razer Blade, ever since I had this experience I swore to never buy a Windows laptop again.

 

[leman]

Same here - I can't justify what it would cost to get a MBP with a 1TB hard drive. SO much more than Windows based PCs with superior specs.

You can get a 1.8kg laptop with top of the line CPU, 1GB fast SSD, wide-gamut screen and 1.3 Gbit/s wireless for less? Where?

 

[CarbonCycles]

Really hard to wait for Apple to do anything interesting when companies like System76 are pushing systems like this out:

https://system76.com/cart/configure/oryp4

Granted it is a repurposed MSI...it seems to check all the major boxes for a lot of folks in the STEM field.

 

[mdbradigan]

You can get a 1.8kg laptop with top of the line CPU, 1GB fast SSD, wide-gamut screen and 1.3 Gbit/s wireless for less? Where?

Seriously? You're competing on specs?

X1 Carbon
XPS 15
Surface Book 2

then expand the weight restriction and get

aero 15x
msi stealth
razer blade
etc. etc.

all are approximately equal or better on available cpu options, screens, size / weight (in first section), arguably better on keyboard, inputs, screens, etc., then many of them are a good deal less expensive. then the second batch offers superior specs plus upgrade ability... in a specs war, Apple is rarely a winner. And that's fine when the margin is small. It's widening.

I wholeheartedly agree: the MBP touchpad is vastly superior. Mac OS is vastly preferred. But other than that, screen, keyboard, internals, ports, etc. - these are only marginally better, if they are at all (debatable). At a certain point, "preferred" isn't worth it. I want it to be. Maybe I'm dreaming, but I think that the most cash-rich company in the world, who almost single-handedly is responsible for the beautification and better build of laptop computers across the market, can compete on both specs AND fit and finish. I want them to wow us again. The current offerings simply don't serve enough peoples' needs. Yeah, perhaps power users are a small but vocal minority... but I work in a small development company... not a single one of the 40+ devs who have the 2016 or newer MBP prefers it.. or even really likes it. Many are thinking of an alternative on their next upgrade cycle. These are the people who develop apps, software, etc. Apple has been focused on the consumers for so long it forgot that people need to actually create the content its main market segment consumes...

I hope they have remembered this, as they have told us they have. We'll see in a month.

 

[leman]

Surface Book 2
X1 Carbon

These machines only come with 15W CPUs... And X1 Carbon has only a low-end GPU. Also slower WiFi.

XPS 15

Heavier, slower WiFi, no higher-tier CPUs (except starting with this year model which is not released yet).

then expand the weight restriction and get

What if I do not want to expand the weight restriction? We are matching specs, so lets match specs. Form factor and weight are also part of the spec. What if I want a very thin laptop and the top-end CPU at the same time? None of the laptops you quote give me that. In fact, none of them even get me top-end CPU performance, since they are either using low-wattage models or lower-end 45W CPUs...

So I'm asking — is there a computer that is identical or at least very similar in all of its characteristics to the 15" MBP for less money? You are either quoting ultraportables/convertibles with cut-down CPU (which are barely cheaper, if at all than the MBP, in the first place), or dedicated gaming laptops which make their own tradeoffs in order to host a better GPU... For example, aero15x... not only it uses a standard-resolution panel to cut down power-consumption and cost, it also doesn't give you an option to get a higher-end CPU.

I would certainly understand (and agree with it) if you said something like "I can get a machine that suits my need for much less money". But this "better spec for less" argument — which has been mindlessly thrown around as long as I remember talking about Macs — is simply silly. You are cherrypicking some features and completely ignoring the other ones.
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I hope they have remembered this, as they have told us they have. We'll see in a month.

I don't think we are in for a big surprise. it will still be fastest CPUs in the thinnest/lightest laptop among its class + mid-range graphics (I bet on Vega with HBM). You know, the same formula they've been using for the last 15 years. Don't see any reason for them to change anything they've been doing so far.