The original intent of the lockdown was to flatten the curve so we did not overwhelm the capacity of the Health Care system. That has been accomplished. The lockdown was never a long term solution. There is no universe where you can sustain a lockdown for a year and half while a vaccine is developed. So, it is time to think about how to get the economy and important services reopened, unless we have moved the bar to a new purpose for the lockdown.
There is a natural tendency to fixate on Covid 19 deaths. I get it. But, we really need to think about the total societal good. People have not been able to see their doctors for routine checkups. How many cancer diagnosis have gone undiscovered? Calls to suicide hotlines are way up. Drug overdose. Domestic violence. Crime as people become more economically desperate. What about the economic misery of a depression, which may kill tens of thousands or more? We dont Have the luxury of simply optimizing around one singular metric, such as: Minimize Covid 19 deaths.
There is much being made of the fact that many of these states don’t meet CDC guidelines for reopening, and that is concerning. But, even Dr Fauci has acknowledged that these are general guidelines and not applicable to all regions or counties within states. We have a rural county in north eastern California that has zero C19 cases. They can’t possibly have 2 steady weeks of decline in cases because they never had one. It requires some common sense. On the other hand, reopening tattoo and massage parlors seems kind Of crazy to me.
I like Cuomo’s model. Open the valve slowly and watch the results. To me the most important gauge is The number of new C19 hospitalizations. We need to stay well below capacity. Meanwhile, protect the most vulnerable, cancel large events, wear masks, social distance, wash hands, and slowly reopen important services and elements of the economy.