[WW] Battlestar Galactica - GAME OVER - MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

[chrmjenkins]

If twietee is Helo and the Cylons believe it, he might not live for two more deaths.



It's not next to null. Baltar and Six are both seeking each other out. However since they aren't sharing the same checklist, I don't think their odds increase by a huge amount. Saying it's next to null makes it sound like there is no chance. There's a decent chance although there's also a decent chance Baltar has already been killed.

If 12 is lynched, 12 explodes. So 12 hasn't been lynched. 12 may have been found since we had one night without a death but that can also mean that Starbuck protected who the Cylons were going to off. So the odds that 12 has been found by the cylons aren't null either. It's slightly more realistic that the cylons chose a single individual to kill and it was 12 moreso than the cylons and starbuck chose the same individual to kill/protect. Odds are better 12 has been contacted. But there is no proof other than odds.

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I think that's still up in the air. ravenvii clarified the citizen/human naming when asked but not the bit about the word 'traitor'. I fall either way on that. He may not have seen the query. For now I'm working under the assumption that it was flavor text like the human/citizen.

Assuming a max of 2 deaths per day/night cycle, it's possible that they could scan every single person before they die, so their odds are simply the number of nights times 2 over the total number of people. Since they are looking for each other and not a third party to both of them, their situations are similar. However, six knows not to scan Cavil, so his odds increase slightly. Cavil can also tell him if Baltar is dead (scan dead humans) and it's not worth scanning anymore.

 

[twietee]

The advantages of instakill today are that we have two 'lynches' in a row, without cylons interfering at night. We also have one clear player in the game (me) who's less atractive to be killed the next night (no special anymore). That'd mean one less problem to worry about tomorrow too.

 

[SilentPanda]

The advantages of instakill today are that we have two 'lynches' in a row, without cylons interfering at night. We also have one clear player in the game (me) who's less atractive to be killed the next night (no special anymore). That'd mean one less problem to worry about tomorrow too.

I think you should instakill today (game today, not necessarily Friday today) and I think we should all talk about it, I just don't care for Sythas' badgering of "do it! do it now!" We can likely talk about it all day long and it not matter that much.

 

[chrmjenkins]

The advantages of instakill today are that we have two 'lynches' in a row, without cylons interfering at night. We also have one clear player in the game (me) who's less atractive to be killed the next night (no special anymore). That'd mean one less problem to worry about tomorrow too.

You're just as attractive to kill without your special ability if you're helo. You're a safe no vote for the villagers so it behooves the cylons to remove you to add more uncertainty to the mix.

 

[Queen of Spades]

My "vote" for sniping would be Sythas, tomorrow, or QoS.

My tepid list would be as follows:

QoS
Sythas
Tomorrow
Jav

I'm a citizen. I would prefer not to die, since we'd be wasting the insta-kill on a human, but it would probably shed some light on the way people are voting, and it's still early enough to overcome it. Still, I'm putting it out there that using it on me would be a complete waste.

I'm going with Don't panic. He's usually an early kill when he's not evil, and suggesting everyone come out and say who they are while being a baddie is the kind of clever tactic I'd expect from him. If I'm wrong, it's still a compliment, you can keep that.

 

[Sythas]

I want twietee to use his insta kill today, before we have a deadline, not at the start of the day.

He was talking to hold on instakill someone for again another day, and for me it's just not a good idea, even waiting to see if he'll live another day yesterday was not a good idea, imo. The hunter should simply reveal himself by using his skill, not by saying he could use it some day...

He seems to have a short list of 4 person he thinks they are cylon, instakill one of them and be done with it, because if we lynch 12, 12 will instakill the hunter and poof! we are still all alone and the Cylon are laughing really hard...

Soo if we let him stay alive, without him using his skill..... we are not in a good position.

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by day I'm always talking day three, not friday...

 

[Don't panic]

The advantages of instakill today are that we have two 'lynches' in a row, without cylons interfering at night. We also have one clear player in the game (me) who's less atractive to be killed the next night (no special anymore). That'd mean one less problem to worry about tomorrow too.

this.
it is exactly as having two lynch in one day, so yes it should be used.
besides, there is still the possibility that twietee is a cylon (in that case the real Helo would likely be dead already), and this will clear him. unfortunately for twietee, that won't take him completely off the kill list, because as chrmjenkins said, a cleared citizen reduces the uncertainty level. thus he will be on the list, but possibly not on the top of the list (specials are still more dangerous, esp with so many players still left.

as far as baltar, twietee is right.
it clearly states in the rules it will be publicly announced when he turns, so it has not happened yet.
This is good because it fragments the cylon voting block into 2 or 3 (if #12 has not been identified on the no-kill night) separate 'units' without possibility of coordinating the votes and possibly voting to kill each other.

i would stick by twietee's menu
-discuss at length
-insta-kill
-lynch

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I'm a citizen. I would prefer not to die, since we'd be wasting the insta-kill on a human, but it would probably shed some light on the way people are voting, and it's still early enough to overcome it. Still, I'm putting it out there that using it on me would be a complete waste.

I'm going with Don't panic. He's usually an early kill when he's not evil, and suggesting everyone come out and say who they are while being a baddie is the kind of clever tactic I'd expect from him. If I'm wrong, it's still a compliment, you can keep that.

i'll happily take the compliment, but as happily leave behind the vote.
and it is still early in the day: only day 3 and one of the night kills didn't happen.
plus you can say the same (experienced, tend to go early) for most players in this game!

 

[Don't panic]

just nerdish post, but we are lucky baltar and 6 have not found each other yet.
the odds that they did by this morning was >60%, the odds that they do by tomorrow morning will be >95%. the next night is certain.
i know you were all just waiting for this

 

[twietee]

You're just as attractive to kill without your special ability if you're helo. You're a safe no vote for the villagers so it behooves the cylons to remove you to add more uncertainty to the mix.

Yes, I know. I always thought this a good thing because I think Athena is more precious than my role (by nuances ). Hope she's still alive. The Cylons can't be sure if I was protected last night - more than generally since I stayed dubious and the enhanced threat by being killed trying to protect me (assuming I'd be a Cylon) would be another factor for not protecting me. If we're playing this right and have some luck we might get another no-kill night.

I agree with the Queen, though. Comeagain? was a 'fun' kill I'd say - to create some bait. It actually worked, Koodauw's death goes back to it. scepticalscribe is a very good player, so that makes sense, but DP and chrmjenkins structure this game by far the most imho. We should be careful also in that direction, although I hate to admit that I'd prefer not to kill (one of) them. Still both of them geniuses couldn't present us a Cylon..go figure...heh

just nerdish post, but we are lucky baltar and 6 have not found each other yet.
the odds that they did by this morning was >60%, the odds that they do by tomorrow morning will be >95%. the next night is certain.
i know you were all just waiting for this

Are the dead included?

 

[Don't panic]

Are the dead included?

it takes into account that both would not scan themselves or dead people and not rescan people already scanned, also 6 won't scan brother cavil nor the person they are trying to kill the same night.

i spare you the numbers otherwise it is certain i will be lynched today.

 

[chrmjenkins]

just nerdish post, but we are lucky baltar and 6 have not found each other yet.
the odds that they did by this morning was >60%, the odds that they do by tomorrow morning will be >95%. the next night is certain.
i know you were all just waiting for this

Well, they've had 3 nights of scanning. Six has had four total scans and knows not to scan brother cavil. That's 4/13. 4/10 if you assume that their kill orders did not match their scans AND their kill orders never landed on Baltar.

Baltar has had 3 scans and didn't know who the kill orders were going to be. So the only people he wouldn't have scanned are the day time kills. So that's 3/12.

So the best case scenario I can come up with for them is 65%. Not sure where you get 60% when you consider that the actual odds are much lower because you have to consider the possibility that either we or the cylons killed baltar.

 

[Don't panic]

basically we have today (insta-kill + lynch) to get 6, or there will almost certainly be 4 cylons, if baltar is alive

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Well, they've had 3 nights of scanning. Six has had four total scans and knows not to scan brother cavil. That's 4/15. 4/12 if you assume that their kill orders did not match their scans AND their kill orders never landed on Baltar.

Baltar has had 3 scans and didn't know who the kill orders were going to be. So the only people he wouldn't have scanned are the day time kills. So that's 3/13.

So the best case scenario I can come up with for them is 56%. Not sure where you get 60%, unless you're rounding up. The actual odds are much lower because you have to consider the possibility that either we or the cylons killed baltar.

they also would not rescan people scanned, or previous night kills.

 

[chrmjenkins]

basically we have today (insta-kill + lynch) to get 6, or there will almost certainly be 4 cylons, if baltar is alive

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they also would not rescan people scanned, or previous night kills.

It's possible Baltar could have scanned every single nightly kill the night they were killed. I removed the kill scans from six's scenarios. However baltar obviously wouldn't scan people that were lynched. It's possible he already scanned them before they were lynched, but he couldn't scan BOTH the lynched and the killed, so I simplified it by assuming he wouldn't scan the lynched and could potentially scan the killed. Neither of my scenarios assumes rescans.

 

[Don't panic]

It's possible Baltar could have scanned every single nightly kill the night they were killed. I removed the kill scans from six's scenarios. However baltar obviously wouldn't scan people that were lynched. It's possible he already scanned them before they were lynched, but he couldn't scan BOTH the lynched and the killed, so I simplified it by assuming he wouldn't scan the lynched and could potentially scan the killed. Neither of my scenarios assumes rescans.

ok, last post on the subject. if you disagree, I yield and you win .
i am treating every night as independent chance of finding the partner, so in night 1 baltar had 1/14 chance to find 6 (15-self), while Six had 1/12 (15-self-cavil-comeagain). either is good for the match, so total of night 1 is 1/14+1/12=~15.4%. For night 2 you take away the people dead + the one scanned the night before, and so on. the total chance is the sum of all independent events.
would love to go into details but i am afraid everyone else will be bored out of their minds and lynch us.

 

[SilentPanda]

It's possible Baltar could have scanned every single nightly kill the night they were killed. I removed the kill scans from six's scenarios. However baltar obviously wouldn't scan people that were lynched. It's possible he already scanned them before they were lynched, but he couldn't scan BOTH the lynched and the killed, so I simplified it by assuming he wouldn't scan the lynched and could potentially scan the killed. Neither of my scenarios assumes rescans.

Baltar can only scan for alive people to be Six. Do you mean Cavil?

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so total of night 1 is 1/14+1/12=~15.4%. For night 2 you take away the people dead + the one scanned the night before, and so on.

They scans are independent and without knowledge from each other. I think the chance is closer to 8% which is roughly Six's chance. Also as people die from cylons and lynchings, those could be people Six already scanned or not which also changes the % chance as days and nights go on. Likewise with Baltar.

 

[chrmjenkins]

ok, last post on the subject. if you disagree, I yield and you win .
i am treating every night as independent chance of finding the partner, so in night 1 baltar had 1/14 chance to find 6 (15-self), while Six had 1/12 (15-self-cavil-comeagain). either is good for the match, so total of night 1 is 1/14+1/12=~15.4%. For night 2 you take away the people dead + the one scanned the night before, and so on. the total chance is the sum of all independent events.
would love to go into details but i am afraid everyone else will be bored out of their minds and lynch us.

You can't sum the independent events with respect to tomorrow's outcome. You can only sum the days' chances before anything happens. The fact that is would have likely happened by now has no bearing on whether it happens tonight.

For instance, tonight is: baltar has a 1/6 shot of guessing six. (10 people left, 3 of whom have been guessed, 1 is his self).

For six, it's 1/4 (10 people left, 4 of whom have been scanned, 1 is cavil, one is self).

So they only have a 42% shot of being activated by tomorrow (assuming baltar still lives and survives the night).

Throw out twietee and you're at 1/5 + 1/3. 53%. Not 95%

Baltar can only scan for alive people to be Six. Do you mean Cavil?

Not sure what you're asking.

 

[Don't panic]

ok, very last post on the subject.
i was calculating odds a priori, that is the odds that they find each other at the beginning of the game, by a certain day.
but since now we know they didn't find each other yet, the old events are irrelevant and the chances for them to find each other on the next night depends on how many scans/kill overlap, so there is not a single number, but a range, and in general lower then i posted above (although still substantial), so i don't know if you are right, but i am wrong. t
all is futile anyway, since raven will let us know when it happens.
sorry for the diversion everyone.

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just saw you post. i concur

 

[chrmjenkins]

ok, very last post on the subject.
i was calculating odds a priori, that is the odds that they find each other at the beginning of the game, by a certain day.
but since now we know they didn't find each other yet, the old events are irrelevant and the chances for them to find each other on the next night depends on how many scans/kill overlap, so there is not a single number, but a range, and in general lower then i posted above (although still substantial), so i don't know if you are right, but i am wrong. t
all is futile anyway, since raven will let us know when it happens.
sorry for the diversion everyone.

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just saw you post. i concur

We're all just jaw exercising until twietee pulls the trigger anyway

 

[Comeagain?]

... (experienced, tend to go early) for most players in this game!

Why thank you!

 

[SilentPanda]

Not sure what you're asking.

I was... I... I don't know what I was asking either. Maybe I shouldn't type, watch videos, and eat sandwiches at the same time.

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Why thank you!

ZOMBIE! KILL EM twietee!

 

[Comeagain?]

ZOMBIE! KILL EM twietee!

The ghosts do talk (albeit not about gameplay) in these games, unless the GG decides otherwise. So… you're stuck with me!

I actually think next time I host a game, I'll find some way to involve the dead as well.

 

[Don't panic]

ok, since the "open source" approach seem to have lost all traction and interest, we'll archive that (i would still like it to be tried someday, although probably it is best to do it earlier in the game) and move on to the next item on the to-do list.

insta-kill: i'll break it in three groups

sligthly more suspect (to me): jav, sythas, QoS, rick, pluto,
slightly less suspects (to me): panda, tomorrow, moyank, chrmjenkins
not suspect (to me): myself (obviously), twietee (since he would be the shooter)

 

[chrmjenkins]

ok, since the "open source" approach seem to have lost all traction and interest, we'll archive that (i would still like it to be tried someday, although probably it is best to do it earlier in the game) and move on to the next item on the to-do list.

insta-kill: i'll break it in three groups

sligthly more suspect (to me): jav, sythas, QoS, rick, pluto,
slightly less suspects (to me): panda, tomorrow, moyank, chrmjenkins
not suspect (to me): myself (obviously), twietee (since he would be the shooter)

Which day did you decide each of those was clear? Only after last night did you seem to see me as ok. I'm curious why you think tomorrow and moyank are clear since they've been relatively quiet. I'm guessing you decided on moyank on day 1 (after night 1 - it's called day 1, right?) since she hasn't talked much since then.

 

[Don't panic]

Which day did you decide each of those was clear? Only after last night did you seem to see me as ok. I'm curious why you think tomorrow and moyank are clear since they've been relatively quiet. I'm guessing you decided on moyank on day 1 (after night 1 - it's called day 1, right?) since she hasn't talked much since then.

here i only cleared myself, as i know who i am, and twietee since at discussion is his use of the instakill
if i was helo i would instakill one of the top group
doesn't mean those on the bottom are all equally good in my eyes

 

[chrmjenkins]

here i only cleared myself, as i know who i am, and twietee since at discussion is his use of the instakill
if i was helo i would instakill one of the top group
doesn't mean those on the bottom are all equally good in my eyes

Yeah, I understand that. Just trying to understand what makes you see the other group as less threatening.