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[WW] Friend... or foe? : GAME OVER WOLVES WIN
- Thread starter ravenvii
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I see QoS had to 'air out' a little, but I think it's important to muck up our gods from time to time so that they eventually notice we aren't mere pawns on a chessboard. 
Since it was officially stated by decree that we can't just tie out our way through life we shall take that into account when analyzing futuristic vote patterns and such when interpreting the doings of our fellow companions.
Since it was officially stated by decree that we can't just tie out our way through life we shall take that into account when analyzing futuristic vote patterns and such when interpreting the doings of our fellow companions.
Sorry anjinha.
My apologies for suspecting you - and I did, partly, suspect you. Actually, I was almost sure you were one of the furries…….
Re the final format, as the participants were okay with it, I'm fine, too.
And now, let us see what the night brings……..
My apologies for suspecting you - and I did, partly, suspect you. Actually, I was almost sure you were one of the furries…….
Re the final format, as the participants were okay with it, I'm fine, too.
And now, let us see what the night brings……..
so we are down to 7 villagers and 2 WW, probably 6 and 2 tomorrow morning. still good odds for the village without the infection at play.
the tie-break votes add information for the village to be analyzed (basically doubling the votes), so even if it is only two days, there are some patterns that my start to emerge.
of course it would be quite different if we had caught ourselves a wolf.
we have 3 confirmed villagers: tomorrow, plutonius, anjinha
of the 9 people remaining, this is how frequently they voted for known villagers at some point, so far:
moyank: 1 (tomorrow)
twietee: 0
sythas: 2 (plutonius, anjinha)
melrose: 0
meister: 2 (tomorrow, anjinha)
queenofspades: 1 (anjinha)
dontpanic: 1 (tomorrow)
scepticalscribe: 1 (anjinha)
rick: 2 (tomorrow, anjinha)
of course, this does not mean that sythas, meister, and rick are all 3 ww (especially given we only have 2), or even that a single one of them is, since obviously voting for a villager is not a WW exclusive (and WW can and do vote for their kin to throw the scent off often enough), but still something to keep in mind
the most information from votes is extracted when one of the ww is on the bubble so that other ww might have to come on their defense.
people on the bubble were moyank on day one and meister on day two
day 1. if moyank were a wolf, it is possible (again with multiple exceptions throughout the games) that the other wolf would have done something to help her, especially if it was not blatant.
both during the regular vote and the tie-break vote, an extra vote from the other wolf could have made her much safer, especially since there were several throw-away votes or non-votes.
for this reason i had concluded earlier (and now) that it is very unlikely that she is a wolf. if it turns out she is, than we should look into people who vote for tomorrow (of which rick, meister and myself are the only ones still alive)
day 2. if meister were a wolf, the same reasoning as above works. similarly to above, the regular vote had people looking on, and/or putting in non-committal votes. however, the tie-breaker was a packed vote, so no room for standing on the sidelines and bide time. IF meister was a wolf, the other wolf either gambled to doom him to earn 'villager steet cred' (in this case it would be one of moyank, twietee, melrose and myself), or voted to protect him (so s/he would be one of rick, sceptical, sythas or queenofspades)
of course if meister is a villager, then not much can be gained from the votes.
i believe this to be the case.
rick and meister voted in lock on both days, suggesting some sort of connection, but this is reasonably explained by the fact that they are teammates. there is no reason to doubt that, as if they weren't, the 'real' teammates would know they were lying.
well, hopefully i can survive one more night (maybe with some third party help?) and i can put some more thought in the morning/tomorrow. just wanted to sneak this in before 'dawn'
the tie-break votes add information for the village to be analyzed (basically doubling the votes), so even if it is only two days, there are some patterns that my start to emerge.
of course it would be quite different if we had caught ourselves a wolf.
we have 3 confirmed villagers: tomorrow, plutonius, anjinha
of the 9 people remaining, this is how frequently they voted for known villagers at some point, so far:
moyank: 1 (tomorrow)
twietee: 0
sythas: 2 (plutonius, anjinha)
melrose: 0
meister: 2 (tomorrow, anjinha)
queenofspades: 1 (anjinha)
dontpanic: 1 (tomorrow)
scepticalscribe: 1 (anjinha)
rick: 2 (tomorrow, anjinha)
of course, this does not mean that sythas, meister, and rick are all 3 ww (especially given we only have 2), or even that a single one of them is, since obviously voting for a villager is not a WW exclusive (and WW can and do vote for their kin to throw the scent off often enough), but still something to keep in mind
the most information from votes is extracted when one of the ww is on the bubble so that other ww might have to come on their defense.
people on the bubble were moyank on day one and meister on day two
day 1. if moyank were a wolf, it is possible (again with multiple exceptions throughout the games) that the other wolf would have done something to help her, especially if it was not blatant.
both during the regular vote and the tie-break vote, an extra vote from the other wolf could have made her much safer, especially since there were several throw-away votes or non-votes.
for this reason i had concluded earlier (and now) that it is very unlikely that she is a wolf. if it turns out she is, than we should look into people who vote for tomorrow (of which rick, meister and myself are the only ones still alive)
day 2. if meister were a wolf, the same reasoning as above works. similarly to above, the regular vote had people looking on, and/or putting in non-committal votes. however, the tie-breaker was a packed vote, so no room for standing on the sidelines and bide time. IF meister was a wolf, the other wolf either gambled to doom him to earn 'villager steet cred' (in this case it would be one of moyank, twietee, melrose and myself), or voted to protect him (so s/he would be one of rick, sceptical, sythas or queenofspades)
of course if meister is a villager, then not much can be gained from the votes.
i believe this to be the case.
rick and meister voted in lock on both days, suggesting some sort of connection, but this is reasonably explained by the fact that they are teammates. there is no reason to doubt that, as if they weren't, the 'real' teammates would know they were lying.
well, hopefully i can survive one more night (maybe with some third party help?) and i can put some more thought in the morning/tomorrow. just wanted to sneak this in before 'dawn'
Appreciate your input DP. Two points I have to comment on atm:
First:
I thought about this before. Not saying this scenario is very
likely but it is possible and should be taken into consideration:
Tomorrow and Pluto could have been the 'legal' partners of our baddies. Killing their partners off early (in fact D1 and N1 at best) has several benefits for the ww:
- you can pretend to be a team wihtout causing too much trouble when called out
- first thing you'd do as a Seer is scanning your partner, right? at least extremely early in the game
That goes in general, especially the second point. The first would point into rick and Meister's direction although this could be purely accidental (likely).
Second:
Your list is not really that informative (let alone the amount of (bad-) luck involved: last game I was personally involved in killing all three villagers Day1-3, chrmjenkins and QoS were even both locked by me!: still I was innocent (could be debatable after all). I'm saying this because it tends to even more simplify the new voting rule at hand. A rule that makes it quite easy for a wolf to stay low - there's always somebody down for a tie et voilà: much easier to avoid attention that way I believe.
I'm saying this not to critisize you, well in a way I do, but because I have problems myself to put these 'clouded' info into perspective.
Let alone this gambling god taking over now
First:
I thought about this before. Not saying this scenario is very
likely but it is possible and should be taken into consideration:
Tomorrow and Pluto could have been the 'legal' partners of our baddies. Killing their partners off early (in fact D1 and N1 at best) has several benefits for the ww:
- you can pretend to be a team wihtout causing too much trouble when called out
- first thing you'd do as a Seer is scanning your partner, right? at least extremely early in the game
That goes in general, especially the second point. The first would point into rick and Meister's direction although this could be purely accidental (likely).
Second:
Your list is not really that informative (let alone the amount of (bad-) luck involved: last game I was personally involved in killing all three villagers Day1-3, chrmjenkins and QoS were even both locked by me!: still I was innocent (could be debatable after all
). I'm saying this because it tends to even more simplify the new voting rule at hand. A rule that makes it quite easy for a wolf to stay low - there's always somebody down for a tie et voilà: much easier to avoid attention that way I believe. I'm saying this not to critisize you, well in a way I do
, but because I have problems myself to put these 'clouded' info into perspective. Let alone this gambling god taking over now
I don't see that as a problem, though. People with any special knowledge or power in these games NEVER come forward soon enough (or at all) to actually provide some help. Everyone behaves likes like dumb sheep if they have an ability (no offense if you have an ability).
Be aggressive. If you sit and wait you'll be dead.* Back when I was playing before, I remember a couple games at least that ended well for the village because people who knew something were actively trying to help rather than saying "Oh gee guys I'm voting for so-and-so" - voting for someone isn't a clue that you have a power. Come out of the Power Closet and tell us if you know something; if you get eaten then we know you're right and can look at voting patterns. Basically, barring any dumb move by the bad guys, these games so often just wind up in everyone randomly lynching people until one side wins. The wolves win more often because they can sway vote counts.
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Some useful points made in the past two posts by DP and twietee.
Firstly, while I doubt that both WWs managed to kill their partners, I think it quite possible that one did, and that both may have been attempting to do so.
This would free them up to claim to be the 'legitimate' partner of one another, and, more to the point, it would also free them up from the challenge of having to construct increasingly elaborate half-truths, or lies, to a 'real' partner, and would also rid them of the possible temptation of a suspicious partner seeking to 'out' them.
The fact that both rick and Meister have claimed to be partners does not absolve or confirm either of them as wolves, although, for now, I am inclined to think that both of them actually are partners, and nether of them are wolves.
I think it may also be useful to see what the Seer may have to offer if not 'tomorrow', then the following day, (if, that is, the Seer is still with us by then).
While I was wrong about anjinha (again, deepest and profound apologies, I did think we had managed to snag one), I do still think one, (if not both) WWs may be found among the more taciturn of our community.
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Some good points, there, too.
Firstly, while I doubt that both WWs managed to kill their partners, I think it quite possible that one did, and that both may have been attempting to do so.
This would free them up to claim to be the 'legitimate' partner of one another, and, more to the point, it would also free them up from the challenge of having to construct increasingly elaborate half-truths, or lies, to a 'real' partner, and would also rid them of the possible temptation of a suspicious partner seeking to 'out' them.
The fact that both rick and Meister have claimed to be partners does not absolve or confirm either of them as wolves, although, for now, I am inclined to think that both of them actually are partners, and nether of them are wolves.
I think it may also be useful to see what the Seer may have to offer if not 'tomorrow', then the following day, (if, that is, the Seer is still with us by then).
While I was wrong about anjinha (again, deepest and profound apologies, I did think we had managed to snag one), I do still think one, (if not both) WWs may be found among the more taciturn of our community.
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Some good points, there, too.
Let me clarify: this wasn't meant as an 'attack' upon Meister and rick specifically but something to consider (also as to why someone eventually voted for Tomorrow instead of Moyank for example). Maybe far fetched, I tend to overthink these things I must admit.
Agreed. Not sure what Melrose implied but my experience with these games is that ww that minimize participation - to a level where you'd almost say they don't care - are by far the hardset to catch. Except if you're called comeagain?, but unfortunately he's not playing anymore..
the vote flow becomes really informative only after at least one wolf is captured, because it illuminates possible tactics in vote control.
and yes, obviously voting for a villager does not mean one is a wolf (since otherwise most people would be wolves), not more than a vote for a wolfs means the one casting it is a villager, but in general -as a trend- a wolf will be directing their votes more to villagers than to wolves, as they can achieve that by maintaining apparent randomness, while the votes by villagers, particularly at the beginning, is truly random.
as far as the seer coming out, i think on day one it is too early.
day two could be a good idea, depending on circumstances
and yes, obviously voting for a villager does not mean one is a wolf (since otherwise most people would be wolves), not more than a vote for a wolfs means the one casting it is a villager, but in general -as a trend- a wolf will be directing their votes more to villagers than to wolves, as they can achieve that by maintaining apparent randomness, while the votes by villagers, particularly at the beginning, is truly random.
as far as the seer coming out, i think on day one it is too early.
day two could be a good idea, depending on circumstances
Unless they had been already kllled.
Usually, seeking the death - or the involuntary incapacitation - of the Seer is an imperative for the WWs.
However, for now, there is much that we don't know.
LOL, a bit aggressive but in this particular game I tend to agree. We probably need a special intervention soon or we're in trouble.
Rick was eaten. Narrative will come tonight, but wanted to update early so voting can start. Deadline will be tomorrow night. Formal deadline will come with narrative.
Rick?
Crikey. Hm. Well, that is a rather interesting choice for selection for a nocturnal murder.
Is this a case of leaving Meister - as rick's partner - bereft, or setting him up for a convenient lynching? Or is there something else in play?
I'm leaning to either Meister or QoS...
Killing the partner(s) is shortsighted a/o dumb... Knowing what your enemy thinks and being in a position to influence him is like a basic tenet of the Art of War.
Are we forbidden from naming our partners?
Killing the partner(s) is shortsighted a/o dumb... Knowing what your enemy thinks and being in a position to influence him is like a basic tenet of the Art of War.
Are we forbidden from naming our partners?
I don't think it is, but I would say to discuss that with your better half.
I'm with SS on the choice of Rick, a rather unusual choice. So I'll go with asking directly Melrose if he's a wolf. He never lie anyway
, so I'll be able to switch my vote.
I don't think it is, but I would say to discuss that with your better half.
I'm with SS on the choice of Rick, a rather unusual choice. So I'll go with asking directly Melrose if he's a wolf. He never lie anyway
No, I said I hardly ever bluff and I never, never cheat.
I'll wait for more votes to pile up before I actually open my mouth about what role I have.
Queen of Spades.
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Why would you lean towards me, after everything that has happened?
I might be new to this game, but I've read the Art of War and despite my quirky reasoning sometimes I would have to be a complete imbecil to kill my innocent twin
Why would you lean towards me, after everything that has happened?
I might be new to this game, but I've read the Art of War and despite my quirky reasoning sometimes I would have to be a complete imbecil to kill my innocent twin
I'm stirring the pot. I don't actually suspect anyone other than QoS, SS, and Sythas. But Sythas voted for me, and you know what THAT means.
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No, I said I hardly ever bluff and I never, never cheat.
Image
I'll wait for more votes to pile up before I actually open my mouth about what role I have.
Queen of Spades.
Do what you must, but I'm a villager. Just to get that out of the way.
Ohhh hoho ... I know what that means ...But Sythas voted for me, and you know what THAT means.
I know. I sympathise. And I am in a similar position myself.
It is like the scene in Monty Python (Life of Brian) where everyone calls out "I'm Brian", "No, I'm Brian", "No, no, no, it's me; I am Brian".
We're all villagers. Until we are either murdered, unmasked, or otherwise exposed.
Now, we do have four deceased. This includes a paired set of lynched individuals (Tomorrow and anjinha), and two who have been murdered, Tomorrow and Rick.
Rick strikes me as a strange choice for nocturnal death, unless one wants to either set up Meister, (whom I don't think guilty) or take out someone who might have been thought to have been the Seer.
We also have some curiously long lived survivors, for whose strength and insight the village may well have cause to be grateful for. A Guard working overtime, no doubt.