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The more I think about it, FenrisMoonlight sounds far too much like a conspiracy theorist to be taken as a villager.

Agreed. For some reason he wants to make a case where you're infected/wolfy and it just doesn't make any sense. He's also not saying anything about rick (whose behavior has been puzzling to say the least), which makes me think we have our 1-2 punch...
 
Tomorrow's status as the seer was also indirectly confirmed by Scepticalscribe's spying.

If he wasn't the seer, he would need to have knowledge of the seer's scans, which imply that the seer was infected.
plus his behavior/posting is consistent from early on with his claims as being the seer.

this leaves scenarios where he was infected, especially if it was after the swap, but makes other scenarios implausible, imo
If I'd infected the Seer, I'd try to use scans to clear the Seer (or a wolf pretending to be Seer)
 
Agreed. For some reason he wants to make a case where you're infected/wolfy and it just doesn't make any sense. He's also not saying anything about rick (whose behavior has been puzzling to say the least), which makes me think we have our 1-2 punch...
True. Rick's behaviour is puzzling.

I've been looking at it from the other angle.

If rick is a wolf, wolves were lucky to kill/scavenge the hunter and then used the power on SS. It's possible - lucky kill/scavenge, shoot the Spy so can't follow the Seer afterwards.

If ravenvii is a wolf, and the Seer wasn't infected, ravenvii messed up the leech. I think ravenvii is more cunning than that and unlikely to have made that mistake. Hence possible scenario where the leech wasn't used. It's very dangerous for the village.
 
Even if ravenvii is a villager he messed up the leech - there was no chance of it saving the Seer by the time it was used as it was after pluto had been lynched. I don't think he'd have made that mistake so ravenvii
 
I have a few issue with fenris’s position:

  • the fact that he didn’t use the blocker power to at least try to prevent plutonius swap of the seer
  • the continuous focus on very complex scenarios verting on some complicated combinations of infections/deceptions. While such scenario are fun to envisage and should be kept in mind, this shouldn’t be at the expense of much more likley ones. Especially when such scenarios do not provide any sort of clear advantage to the wolves, except maybe a big ‘Muahahaha’ moment at the end.
  • His resistance in coming out with his role when it was useful, especially when almost everybody else did. If the reasons at the beginning were understandable, they became untenable at the end, IMO (what would have mattered to the WW if you were the stalwart, when the infection was most likely used and the ww had plenty of non-immune villagers to pick from if it was not)
  • The focus on finding the infected wolf –which might not even be in play, since it could have never occurred or it could have been plutonius or even melrose- instead of finding the original wolves, of which at least one is still at large, maybe two. In addition he focused on a very late game infection (seemingly to drag me in), rather then the more likely early infection
  • The claim to have been NW with Chrmjenkins, but not to have known his role, which seems bizarre at the least. Furthermore, in a previous post (#770: “ok. I'm used to the old games where NW and hunter were separate roles - completely missed that NW could have additional roles –“) he claimed that he didn’t know tha NW could also have roles, which would be obviously inconsistent with being the blocker AND NW. Also coming out with the NW info so late seems strange as a minimum
Fenris provided some more less reasonable explanation for each thing separately (except fot the NW bit, which is crucial), but together they still malke a large pile of circumstantial evidence.

Further, none of the above is inconsistent with him being a WW (unlike some of the things that rick and Ravenvii did)
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In the case of Ravenvii, most of the case hinges on the weird use of the leech power.

It doesn’t make much sense to me in either case, since it appears to be wasted no matter what, unless some of fenris’ theories are at least in part correct and tomorrow was infected the night after he came out and ravenvii only pretended to leech him, to keep a ‘secret ‘power. Still, it would seem that the power would have been more useful if it was -infact- kept secret.

On the other hand, chaos is Ravenvii MO, so anything is possible.
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Rick is also possible, as mentioned before he has gone up and down in my book, and the recent change from participating to single-word posts swang him back to the dubious group.

Plus he and ravenvii are the only two whose claimed role are consistent with the alpha/kami/third (if we believe fenris with the NW)
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as far as comeagain and Moyank, they could have lied about their role, or be infected, but they are both lower in my book than fenris/ravenvii/rick
Tomorrow can only be infected, so for now i won't be voting for him
 
@Don't panic Interesting analysis.

I was highly suspicious when rick came out that he'd shot SS. Lots of things didn't make sense to me about his story, and I was going to accuse him of being a wolf. The next day Pluto was the obvious lynch as confirmed wolf by Tomorrow. Then TechGod put out his list of roles and I saw chrmjenkins was only listed as NW (partially confirming rick's story) so I questioned the roles. At that point I was under the impression that he had to have had a role from the general pool to go with NW and wanted to figure out what was going on without giving away anything.
 
@Don't panic Interesting analysis.

I was highly suspicious when rick came out that he'd shot SS. Lots of things didn't make sense to me about his story, and I was going to accuse him of being a wolf. The next day Pluto was the obvious lynch as confirmed wolf by Tomorrow. Then TechGod put out his list of roles and I saw chrmjenkins was only listed as NW (partially confirming rick's story) so I questioned the roles. At that point I was under the impression that he had to have had a role from the general pool to go with NW and wanted to figure out what was going on without giving away anything.

but then why would you be referring to "additional roles" in general.
in the old games indeed the NW was a full role, so if you were NW nothing else would apply. but if you are NW and blocker, i don't understand how you would be confused about that
 
but then why would you be referring to "additional roles" in general.
in the old games indeed the NW was a full role, so if you were NW nothing else would apply. but if you are NW and blocker, i don't understand how you would be confused about that
Thought I'd just explained that - NW/general pool but fine - tie the noose already - just remember it was you that sent a villager to their death...
 
none at all.
Well unless someone else makes the decision for you.

There are 7 people still alive, so a majority of 4 will lynch someone!

Votes
FenrisMoonlight: 3 Tomorrow, ravenvii, rick snagwell
ravenvii: 1 FenrisMoonlight

Yet to vote: Moyank24, Don't panic, Comeagain?

Voting Log
Post 1043 Tomorrow voted for rick snagwell
Post 1046 Tomorrow voted for FenrisMoonlight replacing previous vote in post 1043 for rick snagwell
Post 1047 ravenvii voted for FenrisMoonlight
Post 1050 rick snagwell voted for FenrisMoonlight
Post 1056 FenrisMoonlight voted for ravenvii
 
interesting move, rick,
any specific reason for the change?
It's a crazy move since if you were a wolf surely you'd have lynched me already?! Without blocker in play it would then take 2 days to lynch you so we'd have had 2 lynches and 3 more wolf kills would take place leaving us at 2 people, 1 villager and 1 wolf. IMO your now the only one cleared as I'm sure you figured that out.
 
I am hesitant because it really is a key lynching. We are 7 with likely 2 wolves.
With sythas out, every night is a guaranteed kill, so we can only mess up one lynching. Not even that if comeagain is a wolf or if they have an unexpected power.

Plus this will possibly be my last vote, as i think the midnight snack will be one of me or tomorrow (possibly comeagain).

Fenris is the most obvious choice, but his explanations are somewhat convincing. It just that there are so many things that are just a little off. He is a very good wolf or a very unlucky villager. :)
Rick has me completely baffled, especially with that last unexplicable switch
Raven is also doing the right moves now.

Moyank and comeagain went MIA ( share a thought, dudes!) and comeagain is especially dangerous with the executioner power.

The key whether to believe fenris is nw or not.
Aargh!
 
I am hesitant because it really is a key lynching. We are 7 with likely 2 wolves.
With sythas out, every night is a guaranteed kill, so we can only mess up one lynching. Not even that if comeagain is a wolf or if they have an unexpected power.

Plus this will possibly be my last vote, as i think the midnight snack will be one of me or tomorrow (possibly comeagain).

Fenris is the most obvious choice, but his explanations are somewhat convincing. It just that there are so many things that are just a little off. He is a very good wolf or a very unlucky villager. :)
Rick has me completely baffled, especially with that last unexplicable switch
Raven is also doing the right moves now.

Moyank and comeagain went MIA ( share a thought, dudes!) and comeagain is especially dangerous with the executioner power.

The key whether to believe fenris is nw or not.
Aargh!

I'm here! Sorry! We're preparing for Rainpocolypse: The Sequel here in Houston!

I've suspected fenris for a few days now and he just seems to be talking himself into looking more wolfy, which almost makes him less wolfy, if that makes any sense. In terms of NW, when I've been in it, I've had conversations with my partners about not sharing roles because of infection, so that almost makes me believe him. The less info you have, the less you have to lie to each other if infection happens. That said, he's still in my top 3, with rick and raven.

rick is just blatantly ignoring everyone in the thread, which is typical. If he was a wolf, would he be that blatant?

At this point, I'm leaning towards raven. I'm awful with percentages, but if we believe everyone's roles (and frankly, that's half of what we have to go on), the pool we have of possible original wolves is smaller than the pool of possible infectees, so I think the chances are better of getting one of them than trying to figure who has been infected. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only possible original wolves are raven and rick, right?
 
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