Knowledge is power, we only have two shot at finding a wolf. The wolf won't try anyway to target the thug or stalward, they will go for tomorrow, me, techgod, DP anyway....
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[WW] Knee-Deep in the Dead - WOOF WOOF WEREWOLVES WIN
- Thread starter twietee
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It may or may not be something that may or may not be useful for the wolves to know.
I'd like to remind everyone how DP talked everyone (well, almost everyone) into not voting for him even after he was outed, so we have to remember that he could have ulterior motives for asking everyone else to out themselves without doing so himself....
Frankly, if I was the guard I wouldn't have outed myself.
ok, i understand your hesitation given the precedent, and in truth i also think sythas should have committed to come out only once it was clear that people had bought into the strategy.
on the other hand, by coming out as the highest value role remaining, he sort of forced everyone hand on the strategy, which is not a bad thing.
also consider this: if i were the infected wolf (i cannot possibly be the alpha or kami), i would already know the identity of all the other wolves. I would also know the role of all the other wolves, which in turn means that i would have a fairly good idea of what the possible roles of the remaining villagers are.
DP you can be alpha or kami if the Seer was infected... Unlikely but it is possible.
ok, i understand your hesitation given the precedent, and in truth i also think sythas should have committed to come out only once it was clear that people had bought into the strategy.
on the other hand, by coming out as the highest value role remaining, he sort of forced everyone hand on the strategy, which is not a bad thing.
also consider this: if i were the infected wolf (i cannot possibly be the alpha or kami), i would already know the identity of all the other wolves. I would also know the role of all the other wolves, which in turn means that i would have a fairly good idea of what the possible roles of the remaining villagers are.
ok, i understand your hesitation given the precedent, and in truth i also think sythas should have committed to come out only once it was clear that people had bought into the strategy.
on the other hand, by coming out as the highest value role remaining, he sort of forced everyone hand on the strategy, which is not a bad thing.
also consider this: if i were the infected wolf (i cannot possibly be the alpha or kami), i would already know the identity of all the other wolves. I would also know the role of all the other wolves, which in turn means that i would have a fairly good idea of what the possible roles of the remaining villagers are.
And he's giving the power to tomorrow to control the situation, they can't both be infected
assuming both stalwart and thbug are in play (which we do not know), they already have 4 good targets.
If they successfully go after those, they don't need to kill the thug at night. they will lynch them or leave them for dessert at the end
they would not have lynched Plutonius that early then, not without the morpher anyway
But not who had what, which helps them with their nightly kills. Some are obviously going to be better choices for protection than others. They definitely don't want to possibly waste a kill at this point in the game.
That's the only reason i'm hesitant about this.
ok, i understand your hesitation given the precedent, and in truth i also think sythas should have committed to come out only once it was clear that people had bought into the strategy.
on the other hand, by coming out as the highest value role remaining, he sort of forced everyone hand on the strategy, which is not a bad thing.
also consider this: if i were the infected wolf (i cannot possibly be the alpha or kami), i would already know the identity of all the other wolves. I would also know the role of all the other wolves, which in turn means that i would have a fairly good idea of what the possible roles of the remaining villagers are.
Before I outed myself, Melrose, Ravenvii and Fenris did not posted wich roles they had, and at this point it's really a good thing to do that after Techgod reduce the possibility and we are at 2 days from the end if we don't catch anyone.
And you and SS already said that you tought I was the seer, so I was, imo a relatively big target anyway
ok yes, that would indeed be a possibility, but only if I infected tomorrow on night 1. and requires a number of other unlikely occurrences.
Definitely unlikely. Tomorrow is the only person I trust at this point.
I'm also a bit leery that Sythas came out so quickly. But maybe because I would have been MUCH more hesitant, so I could be projecting.
However. if the Seer was infected before revealing himself they can both be wolves. Seer scanned DP Night 1 and found a wolf - either the Seer was also infected Night 1 or they waited to reveal and were infected before they revealed.
At this point Tomorrow doesn't even have to be the Seer - he could have been initial wolf soother all along. The infected Seer is still in play and they still have the swapper power to use and they are fishing for who best to use it on. Pluto didn't have a useful power so was sacrificed to sway the village.
Its unlikely but possible and DP has totally omitted it from his analysis - plus he is still alive which makes me suspicious.
i think at the end you did the right thing, but i would have waited to see if the others would buy into the approach first
if fenris and moyank and the others do not follow suit, then your coming out would be a help for the WW, i am afraid.
i understand the hesitations, but i really thing we are in a deep hole and without something a bit aggressive we lose for sure.
We need everyone out now. Scanning Pluto and I can get another scan in if Sythas protects me. Even if Sythas gets targeted today, I'll get in another scan.
And SS ? why would an infected wolf scan another wolf ? Just say you scanned him on day 2. do not make any sense, we already have a lot of informations
EDIT : Added the quote
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I'm not against protecting you tonight, but imo it's not a good target, Ravenvii and SS already cleared Tomorrow's target and it doesn't make any sense for him to be infected before scanning and telling us for plutonius, so we already have the information.
you are still alive as well.
and actually we already discussed variation of this scenario. it is not impossible, and you should not exclude it, but is it the more likely picture? it requires an uncanny number of coincidences.
if what you are contrasting is one single unlikely scenario versus a number of scenarios where any pair of the players can be wolves, then it should be obvious that you should go with the odds.
But if we lynch a wolf and it's not the kami, it would be a good idea to scan him tonight tho...
EDIT : Added the quote
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ravenvii's role was known at the point you outed yourself - he'd already admitted to leaching Tomorrow.
Could be but Not necessarily - could have been a villager trying to save the Seer power if they thought Tomorrow would now end up dead or swapped.
sythas, please quote the post you reply to.
it gets very hard to follow the conversation!
I get it, but if you're infected and you started this whole thing, I'm going to be ticked at you!
I'm the Thug. At the end of the day, if I get lynched today the wolves knowing about it won't matter anyway.
True. I am still alive too but I'm not the threat you are. I have to go out to daughter's graduation but will muse on it while there.
I agree its unlikely but if true revealing everyone hands it to you.
imo, I forced the discussion, wich a lot don't contribute. I want Moyank, fenris, melrose to tell us the role they have, but in the end I'm voting people you wont at least say something / vote
I get it, but if you're infected and you started this whole thing, I'm going to be ticked at you!
I'm the Thug. At the end of the day, if I get lynched today the wolves knowing about it won't matter anyway.
i am not infected, nor a wolf.
and now i am really invested in this thing to pay off
sythas, please quote the post you reply to.
it gets very hard to follow the conversation!
Corrected those posts
it was in reply to Techgod suggestion