DiamondMac
macrumors 68040
Hate to break it to you, but the SECCG is already set. Two undefeated teams going against each other.
Refs will make sure of that. It has already been shown time and time again this year.
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2009/10 College Football Thread
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Hate to break it to you, but the SECCG is already set. Two undefeated teams going against each other.
Refs will make sure of that. It has already been shown time and time again this year.
steve2112
macrumors 68040
I know the game is already set. If Alabama loses before the SECCG, though, it will knock them out of the BCS title game. Maybe. I mean, LSU stayed at #9 even though they lost. I was saying they are going down since we are playing them next week. Err, correction. We are playing them and the officials next week. We've already been victims of SEC officials on a couple of occasions this year.
I don't know why, but I like Stanford. Maybe it's Jim Harbaugh. I always kinda liked him as an NFL player. I like his attitude. I just wonder how long it will be before someone tries to hire him away from Stanford.
IgnatiusTheKing
macrumors 68040
Even though everyone wants to say that it's set (between Texas and the Bama/Florida winner), TCU has a real chance to get to the national championship game. That's scary.
dukebound85
macrumors Core
why is that scary😕
those darn non-bcs schools beatin the big boys oh man they suck and never deserve a chance and if they do get a shot, like TCU, everyone looks for a reason why they shouldnt be there
its
dmr727
macrumors G4
I'll tell you right now - I don't think anyone wants any part of that TCU squad. They're on a mission.
IgnatiusTheKing
macrumors 68040
It's "scary" because it will upset the whole BCS and usher in a completely new idea of how things should be (especially if TCU wins). It might also make the Mountain West more attractive as an automatic qualifier.
Well that was the point. Alabama could lose at Auburn; Florida could lose at South Carolina or Florida State; or Texas could lose at Texas A&M. None of those things are likely but they are all possible.
SLC Flyfishing
Suspended
How in the hell does Utah kill their opponent this past week 45-14, have all those losses by teams ahead of them (Boise struggled to beat a team with a losing record in LA Tech), and yet we drop 2 spots in the BCS ranking. LSU loses and they go up a spot, Utah wins big and we drop 2. Somebody needs to explain that one to me.
I think nobody want's to give TCU any ammunition to complain about not being given a shot at the title should they beat Utah. After the debacle that was the BCS title game with two one loss teams (one of them a loss to an unranked team), while Utah was the only un-beaten and left out.
If TCU beat a top 10 Utah next week and won out, then were left out of the title game the outrage would be deafening. So we've got to rig the system so TCU has less of a claim.
We need a playoff.
SLC
I think nobody want's to give TCU any ammunition to complain about not being given a shot at the title should they beat Utah. After the debacle that was the BCS title game with two one loss teams (one of them a loss to an unranked team), while Utah was the only un-beaten and left out.
If TCU beat a top 10 Utah next week and won out, then were left out of the title game the outrage would be deafening. So we've got to rig the system so TCU has less of a claim.
We need a playoff.
SLC
IgnatiusTheKing
macrumors 68040
Utah doesn't belong in the Top 10 right now, but they will if they beat TCU. I don't think a win over New Mexico qualifies them for that kind of jump.
Besides that, there won't be any outrage outside of Fort Worth if Texas goes unbeaten and faces an unbeaten Florida or Alabama. The way the BCS looks right now, it appears there is now little chance of an unbeaten TCU getting passed by a one-loss team, but an unbeaten Cincinnati could jump them with wins over #25 West Virginia and #12 Pittsburgh.
steve2112
macrumors 68040
And now for something completely different. This is nominally related to college football, though. Mississippi has a bunch of community/junior colleges, and most of them play football. A few have even developed the reputation of being "football factories". Anyway, they held the state championship game this weekend. East Mississippi Community College beat Gulf Coast Community College to claim the state title. The final score was 75-71, with no overtime. The game featured 1,192 yards of offense. I guess somebody forgot to tell the defenses that a game was going on. Ironically, the defense won the game when EMCC intercepted a pass on the goal line with less than 1 minute left in the game.
http://www.clarionledger.com/articl...ORTS/Wild--Lions-win-shootout-for-first-title
http://www.clarionledger.com/articl...ORTS/Wild--Lions-win-shootout-for-first-title
SLC Flyfishing
Suspended
I guess saying top 10 was a stretch, but you get my point. They're trying to suck as much value out of beating my Utes as they can. But even if TCU does run the table as do the two teams in the BCS championship game (assuming TCU isn't one of them) TCU still has a legitimate gripe.
Again, we need a playoff.
SLC
IgnatiusTheKing
macrumors 68040
I agree that we need a playoff and that TCU would have a legitimate gripe if they go unbeaten and get left out, but my point was that no one else will care if they are number 3 behind unbeaten SEC and Big 12 champs.
SLC Flyfishing
Suspended
I'd care!
Anyway, has anyone figured out how Utah can win and still drop 2 spots in the rankings, while LSU loses and climbs one spot?
SLC
Tomorrow
macrumors 604
If TCU makes it into the top 2 and thus qualifies to play for the NC, isn't that how the BCS is supposed to work?
Don't dismiss the possibility that Alabama or Florida could lose and still end up ranked higher than TCU. Stranger things than that have happened.
Okay, I'll explain it to you.
LSU has lost two games - both of them to the #1 and #3 teams in the country. Alabama has been ranked as high as #1. Losing to two #1 teams isn't really much to hang your head over.
As for Utah, a couple of things are at work there. One component in the rankings and computer scores that contribute to the BCS is strength of schedule, which is largely based on BOTH (1) the quality of your opponents, and (2) the quality of your opponents' opponents.
Utah beat Wyoming by 12 two weeks ago. Last week, BYU - a team ranked lower than Utah, beat the same Wyoming team by 52. Utah also lost to Oregon, an opponent who suddenly doesn't look quite as impressive after getting beaten by then-unranked Stanford.
You might not like the explanation from a fan's perspective, but it's there and it makes sense.
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but it seems like over the past 10 years or so TCU has been more consistent with their winning than Utah has, although less than Boise State has. That could be on voters' minds, too.
Now you sound like a conspiracy theorist.
I don't think TCU will make it unless at least two of the top 3 teams currently each lose TWO games. I don't think a single loss by Florida or Alabama will necessarily drop them below TCU in the BCS, and a loss by Texas might not drop them that far, either.
As much as I like the Frogs and want to see them make it, their schedule just doesn't compare to what the top 3 have played so far. They're going to need MUCH more than to just win out to make it; they're gonna need some help to get there.
IgnatiusTheKing
macrumors 68040
LSU has close losses to the top two teams in the nation. Utah beat the worst team in the country. There is literally no reason for Utah to jump LSU right now.
IgnatiusTheKing
macrumors 68040
No. The BCS is supposed to match the two "top" teams from the BCS automatic qualifying leagues. A national championship by one of the non-AQ league teams would force people to re-examine how the system is set up precisely because the BCS leads us to believe that the "big" schools are so much better than the "little" schools because of their more difficult schedules.
That is definitely possible, but TCU's BCS number is very strong right now (compared to other non-AQ teams in the past) and they have another game that will enhance that number (should they win). A Florida loss to FSU, Alabama loss to Auburn or Texas loss to A&M would hurt their respective numbers a lot. Florida or Alabama could probably overcome it by winning the SEC championship game against the other, but Texas will face Kansas State (or Nebraska) in the Big 12 Championship Game, which might do more harm to their BCS number than help.
Texas' schedule hasn't been all that great. Their non-conference was terrible and the Big 12 is weaker than expected this year.
SLC Flyfishing
Suspended
I'm not saying Utah should jump LSU, but they shouldn't drop in the rankings.
And LSU shouldn't climb either.
I was thinking Utah should have gone up to 13 maybe 12, mainly because of some of the losses by teams ranked ahead of them.
They played better than they have all year and they drop in the rankings? That makes no sense to me.
SLC
IgnatiusTheKing
macrumors 68040
Tomorrow
macrumors 604
The goal is to match the top two teams. There's no provision for dictating their conferences.
I'll admit that the overall selection of the 10 teams is skewed in favor of the BCS conferences, but conference is not a factor in selecting the NC game.
LSU got a huge boost to their SOS by playing Alabama. Utah's SOS went down by playing New Mexico.
IgnatiusTheKing
macrumors 68040
You're right, it's not a stated factor. But everyone knows it's an unstated one.
Tomorrow
macrumors 604
I may be incorrect, but your posts seemed to imply that there would be a huge uprising if TCU were able to get into the top 2 and play for the championship. I'm not sure that's the case. Remember, two or all three of the teams ahead of them would each have to lose at least one, and probably two, games for TCU to get in - there wouldn't be much of an argument against them.
As far as I can tell, most people would accept the selection of the top 2 well enough that the only ones to complain would be Utah fans, and even then they wouldn't be complaining about this year.
IgnatiusTheKing
macrumors 68040
I think a non-BCS team getting into the national championship game would cause a big jolt to the system. Maybe not enough to change the BCS dramatically (though given the ridiculous rumblings from Orrin Hatch, who knows?), but I think it might alter the general sense (among the talking heads, especially) that the "small" schools have to start lower in the polls and "prove it" every year.
I also think there are a couple of scenarios where an undefeated Texas could get left out of the national championship. The Longhorns could get left out of the title game if they have lackluster wins over Baylor, Kansas, A&M and Kansas State/Nebraska and one (or both) of the following happens...
- Texas' margin over TCU (currently at .0614) might shrink considerably if the Frogs beat Utah, especially given the fact that Gameday will be in Fort Worth this weekend. Texas SOS (currently slightly lower than TCU's) will only get worse while TCU's will go up this week before taking a dip against Wyoming and New Mexico.
- If a #2 Alabama beats a #1 Florida on a last-second score in the SEC Championship, we could see an SEC rematch.
dmr727
macrumors G4
I think this is pretty unlikely - only because I'm not sure the human voters will let it happen. For example if Florida gets beat, I think they'll purposely drop Florida enough to keep a rematch scenario from happening. I'm not sure that SOS alone will put TCU in front of us, so the human voters again would have to drop us a spot after the lackluster wins for the switch to occur. Call me cynical, but the BCS is all about making money, and the sad truth is that there's more money to be made with a Texas/Florida or Texas/Alabama Rose Bowl than any other scenario. With this in mind, I think the voters will make sure an undefeated Texas is in the title game.
Don't get me wrong, this isn't a knock on TCU at all - it honestly wouldn't bother me if an undefeated TCU ended up in the title game over us (although a one loss Florida would bug me). They're undefeated - as far as I'm concerned, they have just as much a right to the title game as we do.
IgnatiusTheKing
macrumors 68040
The human voters are certainly the wild card here, and I agree with your points. I don't think either of the two scenarios I posted are likely, just possible.
Mack Brown has also been pretty successful over the years at lobbying the voters (a lopsided victory over Ohio state last year might have netted him an AP national championship) and after the perceived injustice last year, the human element will almost certainly ensure Texas gets in if they run the table. But still, OU, A&M and Kansas didn't do the Horns any favors this past weekend in terms of SOS and the Big 12 Championship game is likely to be a dud.
As for the SEC rematch idea, it's certainly far-fetched. Still, the voters love the SEC and we have seen teams lose late in the year and back into the game (OU in '03 and Nebraska in '01 come to mind), so you never quite know what they're going to do. Especially if it involves Tebow 🙄