My thoughts on this, being 10 the most realistic and likely and 1 being unrealistic for the new MacBook Pro:
First of all, lemme congratulate you on a rational set of expectations. I'll be comparing them to mine, for the sake of discussion
- June release: 8. We will have 230-250 days since the last release, which is just a little below the average time for a new one to come up (the average is 267 days). May be even later, but June seems to be the right shot.
Agreed. No one seems to be paying much attention to the average release dates, but instead are sticking to what Digitimes reports. While the Buyer's Guide doesn't take into account the current available chips, I'd say it's usually a reliable source to go by.
- Redesign: 7. The MacBook Pro hasn't got a redesign for over 3 years now. It's about time for a redesign. If not now, then when?
Here, I'd go with a 5 or a 6. A redesign is surely possible (specially if it comes out in June, as it'd give good WWDC material), but not the most prement need of this laptop line.
- Merge between MacBook Pro and MacBook Air: 3. Is it a toaster-refrigerator? Would Apple have to drop the dedicated video card if it chose to go that route? A little risky. And unlikely to happen, although not impossible either.
I'd lower that to 1 or 2. On Jobs' bio, a a very logic concept was described. It had to do with simplifying the product lines. It was a 2*2 table, where the lines were Low-end and High-end, and the columns represented either portable or non-portable computer. We can see this alligning perfectly for the mobile lines (MBA vs MBP for basic or pro needs), and also for the desktop lines (Mac Mini vs iMac) if the Mac Pro gets discontinued.
Also, merging the MBP and the MBA is bound to cause too much negative effects on the MBP. We're talking about storage space going down, CPU/GPU power going down, screen quality going down (despite the higher resolution), less number of ports, lack of RAM/drive upgradeability, higher price, soldered interior (meaning that if one thing goes puff, replacement isn't as simple)... all-in-all, the MBA is a terrific machine, but the MBP still has a place as a machine that offers other things.
- Thinner MBP: 6. If the MBP gets a redesign, it will probably get thinner and lighter.
There was an interesting mock-up made a while ago. It made it overall thinner by making it less curved in the bottom and top, and adding a slight wedge-shape to it. If the ethernet port goes, I'd say this idea is completely possbile.
I also found this less-refined mockup, but the kind of concept would work too. Basically, keep the form factor and lower the curvature of the top and bottom parts.
- Ivy Bridge: 10. Of course Apple is going that way. Unless it has a good reason not to... and I don't see any.
- USB 3.0: 10. Comes with Ivy Bridge.
Ah, I wish USB 3.0 was that simple. While it does make sense they include 3.0, Apple once played an akward move. The first iMacs had native USB 2.0 support, yet Apple still included USB 1.0 only. Why? To boost Firewire 400 usage. (I believe my facts are straight, lemme know if there's any incorrection here, in particular regarding numbers used). Apple could be doing the same to boost up Thunderbolt usage. I wouldn't say it's
likely, but it's reason enough for me to drop that USB 3.0 10/10 chance to a 9/10.
- Quad-core on all models: 2. Probably not. Apple is going to keep a dual-core in the lower-end.
Agreed. There is only one quad-core CPU the 13" MBPs could use, and Apple typically likes to provide two CPU options for the 13" tier.
- 4 GB RAM: 8. Probably all models will get 4 GB RAM. 8 GB would be a little too high. Not impossible, though.
I'd even rise that to 9!
- Dedicated video card on all models: 1. Not going to happen. The lower-end will get an Intel video card.
I can see it happen if they took out the ODD. 1/10 chance seems just right though.
- AMD 7000M series on higher-end models: 8. Probably. Unless Apple choses NVIDIA. But I think it's going AMD this time again, since it seems to have better support for retina displays.
No opinion here. I'm not a fan of Nvidia, but Apple has used it before so who knows.
- Retina display: 7. I can't see a reason why Apple would not put a retina display on the MBP. It's supported by the hardware (the Ivy Bridge and the AMD 7000M series) and by the software (both OS X Lion and Mountain Lion). It is technologically possible and much cheaper than it used to be (Apple put it inside a US$ 499 iPad). And if Apple does not put a retina display on the MBP now, somebody else may launch a retina laptop before it when Windows 8 comes out in October (and Apple will not have time to update the MBP again before October - it will probably only update it again next year).
- IPS display: 6. Possibly. The iPhone has it, the iPad has it, the iMac has it. Only the laptops don't. It's about time!
Agreed.
- SSD instead of HDD: 4. Possibly, but a trade-off if it happens.
Perhaps 1/10. They are still too expensive for the price they provide.
- ODD dropped: 5. If the MBP is redesigned and gets thinner, the ODD may be dropped.
I so wish so!
I went through the macrumors archives and checked the rumor situation before the previous three updates.
1. Supply constraints are reported up to a month before the actual launch from resellers. Closer (1-2 weeks) to the actual launch the Apple store shows some signs, e.g. increased shipping estimates.
2. New part numbers emerge a few days (up to 10) before the launch, typically from resellers, but sometimes also from some Apple store somewhere around the world. This seems to be a very solid indicator of an imminent launch.
3. The actual specs of the new models don't surface until a few days before the launch, sometimes only hours before the new products become available. Everything before that is speculation.
Current status:
1. Some supply constraints have been reported, but in most cases MBPs have re-appeared in stock. No evidence for constraints in Apple stores.
2. Nothing.
3. Ivy Bridge is given, everything else is speculation
I would say it's unlikely that new models will be announced next week, due to the lack of concrete rumors. Beyond that I don't have much to say.
Thank you so much for an
amazing post, which did not get half the attention it should. Definetly one of the most helpful (if not the most) posts I've read on this topic!