First of all, lemme congratulate you on a rational set of expectations. I'll be comparing them to mine, for the sake of discussion
Thank you!
Agreed. No one seems to be paying much attention to the average release dates, but instead are sticking to what Digitimes reports. While the Buyer's Guide doesn't take into account the current available chips, I'd say it's usually a reliable source to go by.
Yes. And I've never seen Apple update its products in six months - which would be the case if it had released the MBP in late
Here, I'd go with a 5 or a 6. A redesign is surely possible (specially if it comes out in June, as it'd give good WWDC material), but not the most prement need of this laptop line.
A redesign is not necessary, but it may be desirable. If Apple adopts retina displays, it is a great opportunity to revamp the laptop line. An IPS retina screen, for instance, might require a redesign, even if subtle. With the adoption of retina, Apple could opt to change to 16:9 screens instead of 16:10, for instance - it is currently one of a few companies that sell 16:10 laptops and even its iMacs use 16:9.
I'd lower that to 1 or 2. On Jobs' bio, a a very logic concept was described. It had to do with simplifying the product lines. It was a 2*2 table, where the lines were Low-end and High-end, and the columns represented either portable or non-portable computer. We can see this alligning perfectly for the mobile lines (MBA vs MBP for basic or pro needs), and also for the desktop lines (Mac Mini vs iMac) if the Mac Pro gets discontinued.
Also, merging the MBP and the MBA is bound to cause too much negative effects on the MBP. We're talking about storage space going down, CPU/GPU power going down, screen quality going down (despite the higher resolution), less number of ports, lack of RAM/drive upgradeability, higher price, soldered interior (meaning that if one thing goes puff, replacement isn't as simple)... all-in-all, the MBA is a terrific machine, but the MBP still has a place as a machine that offers other things.
I agree with you. I would give it no more than 1. However, I chose 3 because of two facts which I took into consideration: (i) there were recent rumors of a merge between the MBP and the MBA and these rumors sometimes have some truth behind them; (ii) I've seen the new Sony Vaio Z series, in which Sony packs a 35W TDP Core i7 inside a thin 13" laptop which is even lighter than the 11" MBA (so it is possible, although there would be considerable trade-offs: Apple would have to drop the optical disk drive and the dedicated video card, for instance). Therefore, I think it to be possible, but not likely to happen.
There was an interesting mock-up made a while ago. It made it overall thinner by making it less curved in the bottom and top, and adding a slight wedge-shape to it. If the ethernet port goes, I'd say this idea is completely possbile.
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I also found this less-refined mockup, but the kind of concept would work too. Basically, keep the form factor and lower the curvature of the top and bottom parts.
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Agree. But I would bet in an even more aggressive redesign, in which Apple would make the MBP even thinner.
Ah, I wish USB 3.0 was that simple. While it does make sense they include 3.0, Apple once played an akward move. The first iMacs had native USB 2.0 support, yet Apple still included USB 1.0 only. Why? To boost Firewire 400 usage. (I believe my facts are straight, lemme know if there's any incorrection here, in particular regarding numbers used). Apple could be doing the same to boost up Thunderbolt usage. I wouldn't say it's likely, but it's reason enough for me to drop that USB 3.0 10/10 chance to a 9/10.
True. But Apple could even choose not to adopt Sandy Bridge or to move away from Intel and adopt ARM architecture. Of course all of this is theoretical and very unlikely to happen, but it has happened in the past, in one form or another.
Agreed. There is only one quad-core CPU the 13" MBPs could use, and Apple typically likes to provide two CPU options for the 13" tier.
Yes.
Perhaps - just perhaps - Apple rises the memory of the highest end model to 8 GB. But I would bet on 4 GB for every model.
I can see it happen if they took out the ODD. 1/10 chance seems just right though.
I don't see it happen even if they drop the ODD. A dedicated video card adds cost.
No opinion here. I'm not a fan of Nvidia, but Apple has used it before so who knows.
I would bet on AMD. I think Nvidia cards won't support retina resolutions.
Apple will adopt retina Macs, sooner or later. Even Intel has announced they are coming when it unveiled Ivy Bridge. And Apple will rush to be the first one to offer them. If Intel predicts that retina displays are coming to the regular PCs in 2013, and if Windows 8 supporting these displays is to be released in October 2012, Apple should hurry to get these high resolution screens before anybody else does. It has two means to guarantee that: (i) to control supply of such screens (and even the almighty Apple may fail to do that, as Samsung, for instance, is able to produce such screens in-house); or (ii) to release Macs equipped with such screens before Windows 8 launches. I would bet on (ii).
Perhaps 1/10. They are still too expensive for the price they provide.
Yes, they are expensive. Apple would have to adopt 128 or 256 GB SSDs instead of 500-750 GB HDDs. That would be a considerable trade-off. But Apple may be willing to do that. Of course they are pricey, but Apple has recently bought a company that produces SSDs. We may see some surprises here. But perhaps not this time.
I so wish so!
Sooner or later, they will. Apple is not willing to adopt Blu-ray, and, given this choice, there's no other route to go other than dropping the optical disk drive.
Thank you so much for an amazing post, which did not get half the attention it should. Definetly one of the most helpful (if not the most) posts I've read on this topic!
Great post indeed. Crude, but right to the point.
