Other A Foldable iPhone will Flop

[dawnrazor]

….the next big thing.

This is not their MO anymore…

 

[TVreporter]

Wooo my vote has made it 132 to 131 for “hell no way I am paying over $2000 for the first iteration of a phone.”

 

[Contact_Feanor]

Foldables aren’t failing to exist, but after seven generations they’re still under 2% of the market because most people see the cost, bulk, durability, competition in relation to other dedicated devices etc. issues as outweighing the benefits. That’s why I call them niche rather than mainstream — they’ll sell to enthusiasts, but the average buyer keeps choosing a regular smartphone. Apple might make money on them, but that doesn’t change the reality of limited adoption.

You weren’t arguing that they’d be niche but apple might make money on them though. You were arguing they are going to be a flop because nobody is asking for them.

 

[ayephoner]

I’m asking why for a reason. People use smartphones for its intended purpose: it’s mobile. A key driver of why people use smartphones is its portability and ability to use it with one hand.

A folding phone is still portable and can still be used with one hand. So what point are you making here?

 

[ayephoner]

Remember when Netbooks were a very small portion of computer market share? Remember when convertible laptops were a very small portion of computer market share?

Yeah, sometimes innovations work out, sometimes they don't.

Not long ago, the vast majority of cell phones were "dumb" phones. The only smart phones had full qwerty keyboards. The original iphone was a risk and plenty of people were saying similar things to what you've been saying in this thread. Same when the original iPad came out.

The truth is, most people feel that the smart phone market is pretty stale. There are constant complaints about the new iphone (or galaxy or pixel) feeling exactly the same as the previous gen (and the few before that). Some people are ready for something to happen with this market. I'm not sure if foldables are that change or not, but maybe...

 

[Pbwallstreet]

I’ve been waiting on an iPhone foldable for a few years now and I simply won’t switch to an Android device. The football team I support is a 4-5 hour train journey and as I return the same day, I don’t and can’t, carry an iPad/MacBook with me and take it in to the stadium!

Having a pocketable device that I can use the front screen like a normal phone for texting/calls etc, but open up when travelling to watch a movie or watch YouTube ticks every box for me personally and gives me the best of both worlds.

Doing a bit of surfing while enjoying a few pints down my local on my day off would also come in handy. I would still use the device folded like a normal phone the majority of the time no question, but having the option to unfold it and enjoy a bigger screen than a pro max on occasions absolutely has its benefits.

It’s a good use case. You understand that the screen would be plastic and the aspect ratio more square? So that movie… there would be large black bands and a lot of wasted space.

If you’re travelling like that… do you not carry a bag? You could have a dedicated iPad like the iPad Pro…

 

[Pbwallstreet]

The problem is you damage your credibilty when you make absolutist statements that are demonstrably false, making your post look more like a screed than a considered evaluation of the market. For instance:


That's demonstrably false, since real customers are spending their own money to buy various foldables.

Now you can argue volumes, but if you wanted to do that you would have said "Sales volumes of foldables are [cite figures and sources here]....".

But that's not what you did. Instead you simply denied the reality that some customers are not only asking for these, they are actually buying them, indicating there are pain points they solve for some people.

That's why I said you were conflating your views (that they offer no advantage) with views generally (which includes some for whom these phones do serve a purpose and solve pain points).

What problems is it solving for these people. Because someone is buying something doesn't mean that thing is solving problems for them. My point is that the foldable smartphone introduces its own set of new problems and non-folding devices are available that are better at what they do.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Going by your logic, there should never have been a tablet: the phone and laptop would have sufficed!

If you read what I said and my posts, yes there should have been a tablet.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

It was a laptop, a proven product category. A foldable smartphone is a tablet and smartphone combined. That is a relatively new concept that is far from mainstream.

The first galaxy fold came out seven years ago, not exactly a “new” concept anymore.
It is as new of a concept as a laptop was when the iBook G3 came out, in that laptops existed for the better part of a decade, most people didn’t have one… But they were clearly what was going to push the industry forward.

 

[ZiBart]

Wont flop unless extremely expensive (more than competition). I can see Apple innovate with software in tablet mode by switching between iOS and iPadOS when unfolded. This and other tablet optimized software refinements will be the key differentiating features in my opinion. I voted a no buy, but i could be convinced if under 2 grand, with at least dual cameras, a 1.5 day battery, slim as two iPhone Airs or slimmer, pencil pro and external monitor support like iPadOS.

 

[acblue94]

No I did not list personal opinions.

Yes you listed

I think biggest issue with foldables is the point of failure, which is the hinge and inner screen, not the price. Samsung is on the seventh iteration and they still haven't completely sovled this issue.

Everything you said was personal opinions

Exactly. Unless he’s Marty Macfly.

 

[GioGiusi]

No, it will not flop. Look at the fold 7, did it flop? No, it didn’t, so your guess is wrong.

The entire foldable market, all models combined, in less than 2% of smartphone sales. If it were an iPhone, it would be a flop. The mini never managed to garner more than 3% of sales. Discontinued. The Plus barely cracked 10%. Replaced.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

That’s besides the point. You said it yourself: it needs to be better at a set of things. And it is. It’s more portable than an iPad. It’s got the screen estate of an iPad mini and the portability of the iPhone. It has form factor versatility (use it as a regular phone. Use it as an iPad mini, use it as a tiny laptop folded at 90%). There you go. Better at a set of things. That it has compromises is not the point since the iPad had those as well, every device is a list of compromises.

Plastic screen, awkward aspect ratio, bulkier phone mode, small tablet screen size, complex hinge... — that’s not versatility, it’s compromise stacked on compromise.

 

[acblue94]

The first galaxy fold came out seven years ago, not exactly a “new” concept anymore.
It is as new of a concept as a laptop was when the iBook G3 came out, in that laptops existed for the better part of a decade, most people didn’t have one… But they were clearly what was going to push the industry forward.

No I did not list personal opinions.

haha. Ok bud

 

[Pbwallstreet]

The problem is that there are no clear goalposts here.

It is probably true that foldable phones wont become mainstream in the near future.
But lets be clear, mainstream phones are not the iPhone Pro or Pro Max but $2-300 android phones and maybe the low end iPhones.

The Pro and Pro Max belong to the premium segment in which foldables have more than a fair chance to become main stream.

And there is a very clear market for them. Lawyers, accountants, business executives and so.
I'm a lawyer and use a foldable since the Samsung Galaxy Fold 4. Many of my colleagues are using foldables and also many of my clients. It is quite common that at business meetings most of the phones on the table are foldables.
Why we prefer foldables? Convenience. It is convenient to carry one less device. And we are able and willing to pay for this convenience.
I admit that we are a niche. But quite a lucrative one.

So you use something that is compromised citing convenience... but as a lawyer, you are always carrying bags... sometimes wheeling suitcase style bags all over town...

 

[Pbwallstreet]

Yeah, a small phone is soo compromising. That’s why people didn’t buy the iPhone from 2007 until 2014…
To me it seems people simply don’t buy what they need, but what they want. People don’t need a big phone, they want the big phone, with the telephoto camera and the larger battery. People don’t need the Pro, they don’t want the normal iPhone.
Small phones are very useful, just not a good sell when for $100 more you can have a „normal“ sized phone with more battery and screen, and another $100 for the Pro. People didn’t buy the mini because for the price, it could t hold up with other phones, not because it was a bad phone per se.
I would have gotten a mini, but the 12 had bad battery life and the 13 still didn’t have that much better cameras. Considering I had a X and a 11 Pro beforehand, I grew reliant on the telephoto, but was disappointed with the ultra wide. So despite the smaller phone being technically a better size for my needs, the cameras and battery were too big of a trade off, conseriding the price.
Nowadays the technology has progressed far enough that we could have a mini with great cameras, battery life and a great screen, as well as super thin, durable and highly versatile foldables.

In reality, my GF has a Flip and will only change to Apple once they support certain software features and they offer a folding phone, because woman’s small pants pockets and weak vision don’t go along too well. She wants a phone that can adapt in screen size, I want a phone I can one hand.
We’re both in the market for a small and a folding iPhone, for good reason.
Difference between us and other people is, status doesn’t really matter and we just know what we want, not what the marketing wants is to want.

OP, the Vision was a flop for obvious reasons you listed, but your assumptions about how usable foldables are can’t hold that true, considering how many generations Samsung and even Google, among others, have released. Apparently someone is buying them.

People were buying Netbooks too. And convertible laptops. And they failed. There is a well established vector in technology of people who buy products like this: Early Adopters.

 

[ayephoner]

Plastic screen, awkward aspect ratio, bulkier phone mode, small tablet screen size, complex hinge... — that’s not versatility, it’s compromise stacked on compromise.

The foldable screens have come a long way. And I think whatever Apple uses will be better than whatever is out there now. Sure, it will be plastic, but it will be a better plastic screen than you thought was possible.

They will have a boatload of things to help with the aspect ratio. They wouldn't choose an "awkward" aspect ratio unless they would.

What does "bulkier phone mode" even mean? Thickness? The galaxy fold is 8.9mm thick when folded, the iphone 17PM is 8.75mm thick.

Small tablet screen size? lol

Complex hinge? you need to pick fewer talking points and have some actual substance behind them.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

You weren’t arguing that they’d be niche but apple might make money on them though. You were arguing they are going to be a flop because nobody is asking for them.

I'm saying both.

A folding phone is still portable and can still be used with one hand. So what point are you making here?

I'm saying that there is an intended use case for a small screen device like a smartphone: they are efficient and people use them in many different circumstances one handed. Unfolding it makes it a tablet and now it has to compete with a dedicated tablet and how a tablet is used.

 

[ayephoner]

I'm saying that there is an intended use case for a small screen device like a smartphone: they are efficient and people use them in many different circumstances one handed. Unfolding it makes it a tablet and now it has to compete with a dedicated tablet and how a tablet is used.

You can say it all you want, but that doesn't make it true.

I'll again point to when the iPad was first released. There were a ton of people saying that it was silly and not needed and that nobody needs nor wants a giant phone that no longer fits in your pocket.

I think the tablet market is doing just fine.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

The foldable screens have come a long way. And I think whatever Apple uses will be better than whatever is out there now. Sure, it will be plastic, but it will be a better plastic screen than you thought was possible.

They will have a boatload of things to help with the aspect ratio. They wouldn't choose an "awkward" aspect ratio unless they would.

What does "bulkier phone mode" even mean? Thickness? The galaxy fold is 8.9mm thick when folded, the iphone 17PM is 8.75mm thick.

Small tablet screen size? lol

Complex hinge? you need to pick fewer talking points and have some actual substance behind them.

“Better plastic” is still plastic — it scratches easier, looks worse in sunlight, and ages faster than glass. Apple can polish the edges, but they can’t change physics. As for aspect ratio, no amount of marketing spin fixes the fact that apps, video, and content aren’t designed for squarish layouts — wasted space is wasted space. Bulkier phone mode means exactly what it sounds like: you’re carrying a thicker brick that adds zero new utility when closed. The unfolded screen won't be as big as an Pad mini. Add in a complex hinge, and all you’ve got is a $2,000 compromise.

 

[Pbwallstreet]

You can say it all you want, but that doesn't make it true.

I'll again point to when the iPad was first released. There were a ton of people saying that it was silly and not needed and that nobody needs nor wants a giant phone that no longer fits in your pocket.

I think the tablet market is doing just fine.

We've discussed already that a tablet like an iPad isn't flawed like a foldable smartphone. I also have never said a tablet isn't a durable product with a durable market. I have already pointed out what Steve Jobs said when he introduced the iPad: it needs a reason to live, and for that, it has to be better at a set of things compared to other devices like smartphones and laptops and desktops. This is not the case with a foldable smartphone. It's a stack of compromises trying to be a jack of many trades. Tim Cook some years back said it best about Microsoft's convertible laptop: it's a lawnmower with wings.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

The entire foldable market, all models combined, in less than 2% of smartphone sales. If it were an iPhone, it would be a flop. The mini never managed to garner more than 3% of sales. Discontinued. The Plus barely cracked 10%. Replaced.

Ignoring some pretty important information there, which is that…
The mini was discontinued not just because it was a sales disappointment, but also because it was the cheapest of the flagship lineup.
The fold is in the absolutely opposite position, it’s likely to *start* at twice the price of today’s Pro.
Even if only less than 5% of iPhone customers choose to purchase it, that’s still about 5 million people willingly spending $2000+ on a phone who would have otherwise only paid around $1000.

 

[ayephoner]

“Better plastic” is still plastic — it scratches easier, looks worse in sunlight, and ages faster than glass. Apple can polish the edges, but they can’t change physics. As for aspect ratio, no amount of marketing spin fixes the fact that apps, video, and content aren’t designed for squarish layouts — wasted space is wasted space. Bulkier phone mode means exactly what it sounds like: you’re carrying a thicker brick that adds zero new utility when closed. The unfolded screen won't be as big as an Pad mini. Add in a complex hinge, and all you’ve got is a $2,000 compromise.

screens don't scratch as easily when they are folded in half for storage.
The front panel will do great in sunlight.
Good thing Apple is in charge of what their Devs make.
videos can be zoomed in on. Or not. Options are neat.
It won't be thicker.
It won't always be closed.
An iPad mini can't fold.
The hinge is kind of required for a folding device.

 

[ayephoner]

We've discussed already that a tablet like an iPad isn't flawed like a foldable smartphone. I also have never said a tablet isn't a durable product with a durable market. I have already pointed out what Steve Jobs said when he introduced the iPad: it needs a reason to live, and for that, it has to be better at a set of things compared to other devices like smartphones and laptops and desktops. This is not the case with a foldable smartphone. It's a stack of compromises trying to be a jack of many trades. Tim Cook some years back said it best about Microsoft's convertible laptop: it's a lawnmower with wings.

You've missed my point.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

Plastic screen, awkward aspect ratio, bulkier phone mode, small tablet screen size, complex hinge... — that’s not versatility, it’s compromise stacked on compromise.

So?
You act as if every first generation Apple product isn’t like this.
Newsflash: they all are.
Even the iPhone Air, smaller battery, single speaker, single camera.
Also, I still have absolutely no idea where you keep getting this idea that fold phones are required to be “bulky”, it is just simply not the case.
The galaxy Z fold seven, which I haven’t seen you mentioned once and you just seemed to completely ignore as if it doesn’t exist, is literally, no exaggeration, only 0.15 MM thicker and 20 G lighter than an iPhone 17 Pro Max.

ZFold 7: 8.9 MM thick, 215 G
iPhone 17 Pro Max: 8.75 MM thick, 233 G

Where is this hefty bulky brick you keep referring to? It certainly isn’t most modern folding phones.