Netflix’s business model is doomed at their price point.
It made sense when they had everyone else’s content, but they aren’t worth $20 when you also need to pay $5 for Parks & Rec on peacock, $5 for Star Trek on Paramount, $10 for the Sopranos on HBO, etc.
They didn’t evolve as the rest of the industry formed around them.
...but they
did evolve...into original content.
They had some great contracts out of the gate, when they were a fledgeling service. Studios, networks, and other rights-holders at the time were eager for a low-risk way to squeeze more money out of basically-dormant properties that were "on the shelf", way past their prime earning window in home video sales.
Once Netflix took off, modified watching habits, and
demonstrated the value of old content libraries for an all-you-can-eat/watch model...the studios/networks wanted that bigger pie (and recurring revenue) of streaming just for themselves. Which has led us to the great fragmentation we see now.
When those initial contracts were up with the likes of Starz, NBC/Universal/Comcast, Warner Bros., etc...in most cases Netflix wasn't even given the
chance to renew. Without a robust back catalog, they pretty much had no choice but to pivot to original content, so they would have differentiated programming that they owned and controlled...and would never "expire" off the service.
The competition is more fierce now than ever, so in order to keep swinging for the fences and (hopefully) hitting home runs in the form or programming you can't get anywhere else—they need more and more money. Crucially, due to the lack of ads and carriage fees (like cable has), none of the money necessary to keep developing programming is offset. Hence the subscriber price increases.
Do I think Netflix's value has decreased? Yes.
Do I think their frequent price increases are annoying and (too) high? Yes.
...but I don't think it's accurate at all to pin their down fortunes on "they didn't evolve". You can evolve and still fail. If they couldn't get pre-existing content for backfill, and original content isn't working as well or as fast as they hoped...I'm not sure any other "evolved" option was/is even
available to them.
The VOD/stream/binging industry that formed around them is one they in large part created. The unintended consequences of that industry is crushing them.
It'll take a few years, but my projection is that the streaming bubble will pop, and we'll see more consolidation of streaming services like WWE Network + Peacock, HBO Max and Discovery+, etc...until there are maybe 3 dominant options left, closer to the early days of streaming. I'm convinced one of the 3 options will be Disney+. Now the other two? Who knows. Maybe Netflix, maybe Hulu, maybe services that don't even exist yet.
