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I'm hanging on to my iPad 3 ready to throw the cash at them as soon as Air 3 comes out so I hope it's this year (although somehow I doubt it...) I've always bought Apple products at launch for the last 8 years, it feels too weird to buy one mid-cycle. I hope whenever they do update it we get the new smart keyboard with it.
 
I'm actually in favor of slower release cycles. A new iPad model every year (or less) often discouraged me from buying new models (I jumped from iPad 2 to iPad Air 2). The Air 2 is great still, and there's not really much in the way of competition. Google's tablet flagship is still the Nexus 9, and the Air 2 beats it.

I'd like a 17" MacBook Pro, though!

I couldn't agree more. A few years ago I purchased "the new iPad" (iPad 3), and in 5 months or so, the iPad 4 was released, with the 3 being discontinued. This happened because the 3's Retina display was underpowered. It became laggier and laggier as new iOS releases came out, and now on iOS 8 it's VERY slow. 5 months after purchasing, I was past my return period with an expensive iPad that was worth much less because of a new model. Disappointing!
 
I couldn't agree more. A few years ago I purchased "the new iPad" (iPad 3), and in 5 months or so, the iPad 4 was released, with the 3 being discontinued. This happened because the 3's Retina display was underpowered. It became laggier and laggier as new iOS releases came out, and now on iOS 8 it's VERY slow. 5 months after purchasing, I was past my return period with an expensive iPad that was worth much less because of a new model. Disappointing!
I sill have the iPad 4th generation - is the Air 2 good upgrade?
 
Honestly I could see this being a small unheralded update. Without a keynote. That way the attention isn't taken away from the pro; it gets the spotlight for a month. We'll see, I wouldn't rule it out completely. I'd say maybe 20/80 we'll see it next month.
 
Honestly I could see this being a small unheralded update. Without a keynote. That way the attention isn't taken away from the pro; it gets the spotlight for a month. We'll see, I wouldn't rule it out completely. I'd say maybe 20/80 we'll see it next month.
I would be shocked if the Air 3 were to be announced next month.

Apple will focus their marketing attention on the iPad Pro. An Air 3 with better specs/features (assuming the current price remains the same) could negatively affect iPad Pro buzz and sales.

The iPad Mini received a non-update last year while the Air received a major one. This year, it was the Mini with no update to the Air.

I suspect that Apple is rebalancing their upgrade cycles on the iPads. Major updates every other year and stagger the major updates between Mini and Air. The result is that SOME iPad device is getting a major update every year.
 
I would be shocked if the Air 3 were to be announced next month.

Apple will focus their marketing attention on the iPad Pro. An Air 3 with better specs/features (assuming the current price remains the same) could negatively affect iPad Pro buzz and sales.

The iPad Mini received a non-update last year while the Air received a major one. This year, it was the Mini with no update to the Air.

I suspect that Apple is rebalancing their upgrade cycles on the iPads. Major updates every other year and stagger the major updates between Mini and Air. The result is that SOME iPad device is getting a major update every year.
That does make sense as the iPads they do release are already extremely powerful and more than capable of being a flagship device for 2 years.
 
Honestly I could see this being a small unheralded update. Without a keynote. That way the attention isn't taken away from the pro; it gets the spotlight for a month. We'll see, I wouldn't rule it out completely. I'd say maybe 20/80 we'll see it next month.

Obviously it is all just speculation, but if that was the case why not announce it at this past week's keynote. That is essentially what they did with the mini 4. It was totally unheralded and given like 10 seconds of afterthought time.
 
An Air 3 is very likely around October. It'll be pushed out as a minor update, without a launch event.

Only two hardware upgrades are really feasible at this stage without Apple impinging on other products:

* A9 chip, to replace the A8. NOT the A9X as in the iPad Pro; in other words, slightly faster but not meaning much to most people
* The mysterious second-gen TouchID sensor, as found in the iPhone 6S

Forget about more RAM, or 3D Touch, or Pencil support. Ain't gonna happen. That's for iPad 4 at a special launch event next year, maybe WWDC in June. Engineering required is too significant.

Apple has done this kind of minor upgrade before. I got burned by it! I got a third-gen iPad originally released March 7, 2012. Then they came out half a year later with the iPad 4, with a few minor upgrade bumps that proved pretty significant down the line (Lightning connector, and Bluetooth low-power for Handoff).

So yeah. Wait until the end of October. If I'm wrong on this I'll eat my hat.
 
An Air 3 is very likely around October. It'll be pushed out as a minor update, without a launch event.

Only two hardware upgrades are really feasible at this stage without Apple impinging on other products:

* A9 chip, to replace the A8. NOT the A9X as in the iPad Pro; in other words, slightly faster but not meaning much to most people
* The mysterious second-gen TouchID sensor, as found in the iPhone 6S

Forget about more RAM, or 3D Touch, or Pencil support. Ain't gonna happen. That's for iPad 4 at a special launch event next year, maybe WWDC in June. Engineering required is too significant.

Apple has done this kind of minor upgrade before. I got burned by it! I got a third-gen iPad originally released March 7, 2012. Then they came out half a year later with the iPad 4, with a few minor upgrade bumps that proved pretty significant down the line (Lightning connector, and Bluetooth low-power for Handoff).

So yeah. Wait until the end of October. If I'm wrong on this I'll eat my hat.
You're not the first to make reference to the short time between the iPad 3 and iPad 4 for a comparison. That was NOT a minor upgrade. Processor upgrade (which had an impact on battery life and performance), front-facing camera upgrade.

It is nearly a year since the Air 2 was released so this isn't anything like the iPad3 -> 4 scenario. Too much time has passed. Even the minimal "upgrade" from the Mini 2 -> Mini 3 warranted stage time at last year's event. The Mini 4 upgrade was substantial and yet was given a mere 10 words this year.

I would like you to be correct, but I don't see this happening.
 
You're not the first to make reference to the short time between the iPad 3 and iPad 4 for a comparison. That was NOT a minor upgrade. Processor upgrade (which had an impact on battery life and performance), front-facing camera upgrade..

Well, that's debatable. For example, the review of the iPad 4 at TechRadar said "AGAINST: Not much of an update".

But when I say minor upgrade, I'm talking about how Apple marketed it. It was launched at a quick media scrum, not a big event. At the time Apple was focussing a lot of their marketing time on the then-new iPad mini, just like they're focussing now on the iPad Pro.

... But I think I've perhaps the best argument against what I said: Manufacturing capacity. With new iPhones and the new iPad Pro steaming ahead, plus a new iPad mini, where's Apple going to find the production lines to introduce a new iPad Air model too?

So, now I'm with the people who reckon next year :) June, at WWDC.
 
An Air 3 is very likely around October. It'll be pushed out as a minor update, without a launch event.

Only two hardware upgrades are really feasible at this stage without Apple impinging on other products:

* A9 chip, to replace the A8. NOT the A9X as in the iPad Pro; in other words, slightly faster but not meaning much to most people
* The mysterious second-gen TouchID sensor, as found in the iPhone 6S

Forget about more RAM, or 3D Touch, or Pencil support. Ain't gonna happen. That's for iPad 4 at a special launch event next year, maybe WWDC in June. Engineering required is too significant.

Apple has done this kind of minor upgrade before. I got burned by it! I got a third-gen iPad originally released March 7, 2012. Then they came out half a year later with the iPad 4, with a few minor upgrade bumps that proved pretty significant down the line (Lightning connector, and Bluetooth low-power for Handoff).

So yeah. Wait until the end of October. If I'm wrong on this I'll eat my hat.


I really hope you are right!!
 
I'm tempted by the mini 4 actually. I had the mini 1 before I got the air 1 this June, and the mini 4 seems kinda nice...
 
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