Leopard - Has some funky new features which advanced power users / maczealots are crying out for, but those people are few, and hardly likely to skip to Vista for the sake of a few months. Competition is a fat lazy monopolist with Vista, a product that was relased years late to a chorus of yawns, farts, and howls from people who found that the drivers weren't ready. General opinion is that 10.4 is better. Vista SP1 is slated for Q2/Q3, at which point it might work as advertised. Conclusion - wait a bit, make 10.5 better and put a brand-new glossy-looking offering up against Vista+elastoplast when that comes out (and no doubt breaks a few million machines, again).
iPhone - mobile phones are the single most successful category of electronics product the world has ever seen, the single biggest threat to the iPod/iTMS goldmine, the best way to access the non-computer-owning majority of the worlds population, and the electronics item people have the greatest emotional attachment to and carry with them everywhere. The competition are half-a-dozen hungry, highly competetive and skilled companies who already have superior product out on the street and plenty more in the pipeline. Conclusion - throw all your spare resources at getting a vaguely credible offering out the door ASAP, make some future-dated announcements to buy a bit of breathing space, start beavering away at a portfolio pipeline of variants in much the same way as iPod (3G, entry-level, slimline, special-purpose, etc.).
You can write as many letters to Steve as you want, he won't give a ****. He's more worried about the fact that something like a BILLION handsets shipped in 2006, and about 10-15% of them are 3G that can stream content in realtime, every single one with network providers desperately trying to sell ringtones, music, games and video through them. Or in other words, Nokia, SE, Samsung, LG and the like shipped many times more iPod/iTMS competitors in 2006 than Apple has made in the last six years. If he doesn't appear to have a credible strategy for getting on top of that little problem, analysts are going to ding his stock by a lot more than 3% (which barely rates as a wobble). The Mac area, on the other hand, is growing phenomenally and is totally under control (shipments up something like 34% yoy last quarter).
Good post.