I liked your post as it was well argued and well written but I'd still take a different view.
Firstly the "we'll lose a dollar on every unit, but make it up on volume" may apply to manufactures that only make smartphones. To companies like Samsung, LG, Sony, Toshiba who make products in other areas having a smartphone is about brand recognition. They want to appear to be current and involved in what's currently popular and having a smartphone division, even if it loses money, is simply a form of brand advertising. If you don't believe in the value of a brand why does Cola-Cola spend 6.9% of their revenue on advertising?
Secondly, The "the need for consolidation" argument doesn't apply to other industries and products so why should it apply to smartphones? I can go into town and choose from hundreds of kettles and I've never felt "Oh man, I wish there was fewer choices".
I dunno, I find it hard to imagine that Samsung sees their phones as a loss leader for their dishwashers... It's unusual for a company to sacrifice one division's performance to benefit another. Even when there was all that talk about the "halo effect" from the iPod then the iPhone benefiting Mac sales, that was in addition to their profit margin not as a substitute for it. It's not that a brand doesn't have value, it's just that there are other, lower risk, ways to achieve the same goal.
Consolidation happens all around you. The auto industry, the newspaper industry, the over priced sanitized coffee house industry, PCs, airlines, social media, railways... Even housewares such as kettles have undergone "
a mass wave of consolidation".
I did say it would be the talk in the financial press... It's not about consumers saying they want less choice, it's about investors saying they won't invest in a company that can't give them a return.
Competition drives profits towards zero. As long as any company is able to make a profit, others will want a piece of that action and will start to compete for customers. In the beginning this leads to innovation-- competing with ideas and technological and manufacturing improvements. Over time though, there will be enough companies that profit margins fall to near zero and there's no money left in the till for further innovation.
For all industries, but technology products in particular, it's the kiss of death. If you can't innovate, you'll simply fade away. To get money for innovation, you need investment-- either from your own profits for from outside investors. With no profit, thus no return on investment, nobody will pony up. The only path to profits from here is to reduce the number of competitors. Companies start merging and acquiring each other until they feel they have the ability to differentiate themselves again and justify a profit that they can then reinvest.