I 'may' have over stated the 30bucks (although 50 is imho very likely indeed) but I think we are in for a lot of pain in the next few weeks/months, this is just the start.
Even 50$/share is still in Great Depression levels of panic, within
US stocks. That's a pretty pessimistic view, seeing as China's economy itself isn't imploding like we saw in the US and Europe in the depression, but the stock markets are panicking. The bigger concern I have here is that even if China's correction drives itself into a depression (which honestly, with how bubbled their economy is, is a possibility), it will ripple out as recessions in other countries, but that might not be bad for the world at large (and especially India). But even in a recession, >50% loss is excessive (120/share -> 50/share). 25% is a more likely number, IMO, assuming this generates recessions in the US and Europe like the US did last decade.
I do agree with the comments about volitility. It will take a while for all this to sort out, especially with Bejing interfering with their own markets in an attempt to stall things, as it hides how bad the panic is, and makes people even less certain about the future (since they don't see the bottom as quickly).
Can I ask what you think will stop this rout? What news apart from massively reduced stock prices will entice the market to buy? What good news is there on the horizon.
Do you know why the market has risen for the last 5/6 years? If you do, then I can't understand why you are optimistic... Like I said, just my opinion, if anyone thinks I am dead wrong, I wish you luck on your purchases.
My money is off the table.
It isn't about what will stop the rout, but rather what would keep it continuing. Are banks beginning to fail? Are employers going broke? Laying off employees? Are we seeing a shrinkage of the buying power of Chinese consumers? All these things are factors in how this plays out in the larger scheme of things beyond a stock panic, and how other markets get affected over the coming months.
I try not to follow overall market trends all that closely, since they are the one thing I can't really control (once the avalanche has started, it is too late for the pebbles to vote). And my investments are already diverse as it is. And being so far out from my own retirement, another recession in the US now, while painful, is not a reason to withdraw my money, or stop investing for my retirement.
