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Apple Sneaks Up on Motorola in Mobile Phone Sales, Android Surges Past iOS

LagunaSol said:
I'd hate to be in the Android hardware business. :(

The day will come when the manufacturers will barely be able to recoup their R&D, tooling and advertising costs for each model as longevity will be zippo and brutal competition will force prices down. See the PC manufacturing business for reference.

HP was smart to scoop up Palm - and they'll be even smarter if they focus on Palm-based hardware and not try to play the Android side too.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure the Android HW manufacturers know exactly what they're doing when releasing so many phones so often. The mobile market is huge - measured in billions of devices. Neither Apple nor HTC nor Samsung etc could cater for it all. They can quite happily release a device, sell a few million, and while they're still selling those few millions release another device. This is how the mobile device world has always operated, and will continue to operate so long as there are hundreds of millions of buyers who replace their phones at fairly frequent intervals. I don't think the smartphone market is anywhere close to saturation at the moment, based on the small proportion of buyers who actually have one. Perfectly competent Android phones hitting the street for £50 (or less) free of contract (which is happening right now) will certainly absorb those users, and Apple quite rightly don't even try and compete in that sector.
 
John Dillinger said:
Nokia werent doing too badly releasing phones at that pace pre iPhone were they??:rolleyes:
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And how's Nokia doing these days? ;)

Reed Rothchild said:
I'm pretty sure the Android HW manufacturers know exactly what they're doing when releasing so many phones so often.
Click to expand...

How are the PC makers (who "know exactly what they're doing") faring with PC sales' profitability these days? ;)

I'd much rather be in the position of RIM or Apple selling my own devices for my own platform than being a manufacturing schlub for someone else's (Google, Microsoft) platform. HP learned this lesson the hard way, pumping out cut-rate, razor-thin-profit-margin hardware for the sake of Microsoft's profit. Snatching up Palm seemed to be their way of saying they aren't going down that dead-end street in the mobile market (and the continued absence of Ballmer's HP Win 7 Slate seems to support that argument).

But let the increasing number of Android manufacturers continue busily commoditizing their products on behalf of Google's quest for world information domination (and Microsoft's desperate bid to become relevant in mobile again) and we'll see where everything ends up.
 
Reed Rothchild said:
I'm pretty sure the Android HW manufacturers know exactly what they're doing when releasing so many phones so often. The mobile market is huge - measured in billions of devices.
Click to expand...

Right on... I look at it like candy... phones come and go. Consumers know this and they buy what they think is the best one for them. May not be the best phone, or the best for you, but the best for them at the time. And in two years, they'll get another one and probably a completely different one. I know before my iPhone I didn't really care who made the phone as long as i liked it at the time.

Now the advantage Apple has (and this can be spun as a disadvantage) is iTunes. With the iPhone, once you have all your content and contacts in your iTunes libraries, it's going to be harder to switch from a iPhone to an Android. So I would think Apple retention is very high compared to other manufactures. This would be interesting to see numbers on.
 
Reed Rothchild said:
I'm pretty sure the Android HW manufacturers know exactly what they're doing when releasing so many phones so often. The mobile market is huge - measured in billions of devices. Neither Apple nor HTC nor Samsung etc could cater for it all. They can quite happily release a device, sell a few million, and while they're still selling those few millions release another device. This is how the mobile device world has always operated, and will continue to operate so long as there are hundreds of millions of buyers who replace their phones at fairly frequent intervals. I don't think the smartphone market is anywhere close to saturation at the moment, based on the small proportion of buyers who actually have one. Perfectly competent Android phones hitting the street for £50 (or less) free of contract (which is happening right now) will certainly absorb those users, and Apple quite rightly don't even try and compete in that sector.
Click to expand...

you are correct, the smartphone industry is still wide open...Nokia and MS hasn't really even weighed in yet.

Hardware manufacturers are happy that things are rapidly evolving - it just makes you want to replace your phone more frequent.



P.
 
LagunaSol said:
I'd hate to be in the Android hardware business. :(

The day will come when the manufacturers will barely be able to recoup their R&D, tooling and advertising costs for each model as longevity will be zippo and brutal competition will force prices down. See the PC manufacturing business for reference.

HP was smart to scoop up Palm - and they'll be even smarter if they focus on Palm-based hardware and not try to play the Android side too.
Click to expand...

So ultimately with the PC business model..who won??

Consumers....

as long as iOS stays niche the consumers will still win in the mobile space.

They'll get more and pay less....

eg...

TCO (UK)

droid (milestone) 300 mins, 300 texts per month, 1GB data

£500 (£450 with £50 cashback) 24 months

http://www.buymobilephones.net/mobi...lestone/T-Mobile/T-Mobile-20-(24mths)/2706367

iPhone (3GS 8GB) 300 mins, unlimited texts, 1 GB data

£815

http://shop.o2.co.uk/promo/iphoneindex/Pay_Monthly/3GS_8GB_and_16GB/Black


truth is as a product iPhone is vastly overpriced compared to similar offerings, and that doesn't even take into account other factors like how bad it is as a phone etc..
 
archipellago said:
So ultimately with the PC business model..who won??

Consumers....
Click to expand...

Did they? Have you looked at any consumer customer satisfaction surveys lately?

Apparently by "winning" (paying less) they're "losing" (getting an unsatisfactory product with unsatisfactory service).


paul4339 said:
Hardware manufacturers are happy that things are rapidly evolving - it just makes you want to replace your phone more frequent.
Click to expand...

Yeah, like every two years on contract. :p
 
Popeye206 said:
Right on... I look at it like candy... phones come and go. Consumers know this and they buy what they think is the best one for them. May not be the best phone, or the best for you, but the best for them at the time. And in two years, they'll get another one and probably a completely different one. I know before my iPhone I didn't really care who made the phone as long as i liked it at the time.
Click to expand...

Those were the dumbphone days. These are the smartphone days. And once you're heavily invested in a specific platform (i.e. apps), it's going to be hard to break free (look at Windows). I don't think there will be as much churn between smartphone platforms as you think.
 
617arg said:
I think the fact they are moving so quickly means they could win developers. As more and more people start using Droid devices the iPhone will begin to look like a waste of time to develop for.

I hope this won't be the case but Android consistently looks better and better.
The desktop look looks yummy too.......
Click to expand...

The only reason Android has a larger market share now is for two reasons. (a) iPhone models times 5 = number of Android models and (b) Their phones are spread across several networks. ONLY REASONS!

It also doesn't help that Apple made a couple mistakes this year. Let me guarantee you something. Once the iPhone goes over to Verizon, Apple will regain its crown again.

Android OS isn't superior; it just isn't.
 
archipellago said:
So ultimately with the PC business model..who won??

Consumers....

as long as iOS stays niche the consumers will still win in the mobile space.

They'll get more and pay less....
Click to expand...

I'm not convinced that this will always be the case... there's a strong likelihood that Access will be a commodity - independent of the hardware. That is, a data plan is a data plan regardless of which device you use on it.

One reason why the iPhone plans are more expensive than others (today), is because of subsidies.

P.
 
Google Will End Up On Top With Apple 2nd

It will shake out like this....

1) Android OS will be end up being the "Windows" of the phone world because it will be the OS of choice for almost all phone manufacturers except Apple
2) iOS will end up being #2 only because it runs only the iPhone which will remain the "premium" phone
3) All others will whither away....

Lots of room for both Google and Apple to dominate.

My next phone? Definitely an iPhone!!!
 
LagunaSol said:
Did they? Have you looked at any consumer customer satisfaction surveys lately?

Apparently by "winning" (paying less) they're "losing" (getting an unsatisfactory product with unsatisfactory service).


Yeah, like every two years on contract. :p
Click to expand...


the more you pay for a product the happier you will be with it.... its a simple fact, in fact its got a statistical name somewhere.

I would say you are a classic example.....biased to the extreme point where the view is pointless.

also, in real terms Mac users are (worldwide) almost statistically irrelevant. Easier to keep 13 million people a year happy than the other 287 million!

so when customers answer yes to the are they happy/unhappy with any product..... is it the OS, the manufacturer, the service or what?

I've owned Macs for a long time... first eMac was my first, and my opinion has never been canvassed, maybe that's because I've complained to Apple and taken them to court a few times..? How impartial are these surveys..?

below average across the board...
 
Pc market is mature. Back in the 1990's Dell and Hp had very nice margins.

Right now the smartphone market is where pc market was back in the 1990's. Nice margins for everyone and no one cares about the future. Only difference is that a smartphone is cheap enough for almost everyone.

Who cares what will happen in 10 years. By then htc and others will probably move on to the next big thing


LagunaSol said:
And how's Nokia doing these days? ;)



How are the PC makers (who "know exactly what they're doing") faring with PC sales' profitability these days? ;)

I'd much rather be in the position of RIM or Apple selling my own devices for my own platform than being a manufacturing schlub for someone else's (Google, Microsoft) platform. HP learned this lesson the hard way, pumping out cut-rate, razor-thin-profit-margin hardware for the sake of Microsoft's profit. Snatching up Palm seemed to be their way of saying they aren't going down that dead-end street in the mobile market (and the continued absence of Ballmer's HP Win 7 Slate seems to support that argument).

But let the increasing number of Android manufacturers continue busily commoditizing their products on behalf of Google's quest for world information domination (and Microsoft's desperate bid to become relevant in mobile again) and we'll see where everything ends up.
Click to expand...
 
paul4339 said:
I'm not convinced that this will always be the case... there's a strong likelihood that Access will be a commodity - independent of the hardware. That is, a data plan is a data plan regardless of which device you use on it.

One reason why the iPhone plans are more expensive than others (today), is because of subsidies.

P.
Click to expand...


The example i gave above, which you seem to have missed would seem to indicate that costly iPhone plans are purely down to Apple prices (sold in to carriers)
 
SeattleMoose said:
It will shake out like this....

1) Android OS will be end up being the "Windows" of the phone world because it will be the OS of choice for almost all phone manufacturers except Apple
2) iOS will end up being #2 only because it runs only the iPhone which will remain the "premium" phone
3) All others will whither away....

Lots of room for both Google and Apple to dominate.

My next phone? Definitely an iPhone!!!
Click to expand...


As per the article, Apple are 7th....

they will stay seventh, unless the TCO drops..
 
LagunaSol said:
Those were the dumbphone days. These are the smartphone days. And once you're heavily invested in a specific platform (i.e. apps), it's going to be hard to break free (look at Windows). I don't think there will be as much churn between smartphone platforms as you think.
Click to expand...



If I trade in my 3GS for an android phone I can still use it as an iPod touch and not lose any apps
 
Yet again, what a ridiculous comparison. This is like comparing one BMW model vs. every Honda Model.
 
NebulaClash said:
Here's an interesting article. Talks about the launch of the new Blackberry and the new Droid 2 phones. The key point is that there are no real lines for the Droid 2, supply is on hand and ready to sell, and there's no waiting time for an order. Contrast that to the iPhone 4 June launch and you see there is greater demand for the iPhone 4 than there is for the Droid 2.

So why is Android taking the overall lead? Because when you throw dozens of models into the same bucket, and throw in some BOGO deals, you eventually add up to a large group. But it's not as if each individual phone is doing as well as the iPhone.
Click to expand...


It could be that from 1.7 million iphone 4 sold only 340,000,00 were new costumer all other where people upgrading there phones.
 
archipellago said:
The example i gave above, which you seem to have missed would seem to indicate that costly iPhone plans are purely down to Apple prices (sold in to carriers)
Click to expand...

Correct I agree ... I understand the money goes to Apple... my point being that if hardware and plans were sold separately... then the consumer can pay upfront prices for their smartphones and just get a regular plan.

That is I will have a choice to buy a $600 iPhone and get a $60/month plan
Or
a $400-$600 Android phone and get a $60/month plan.

the consumer can decide if they are getting more/less value for the premium priced iPhone.


P.
 
LagunaSol said:
Those were the dumbphone days. These are the smartphone days. And once you're heavily invested in a specific platform (i.e. apps), it's going to be hard to break free (look at Windows). I don't think there will be as much churn between smartphone platforms as you think.
Click to expand...

While that sounds reasonable, I haven't found it to be so... and that's coming from someone who used to spend real money on WinMo apps for years... not the 99 cent expenditures so popular today.

I, and the people I know, have had no qualms about jumping between WinMo, WebOS, iOS, RIM or Android, even after investing in apps.

What I've found that's far more important, is the _availability_ of my favorite apps on a platform. For example, Slingplayer, which is not cheap, but for which I have happily paid when available. Certain weather, news, eBay, blah blah you-name-it apps are favorites as well, but most times even a web based version is an okay substitute.

I think the same would apply even to subgroups such as gamers... who care at least as much about availability as price.

It's just like buying a new car. It doesn't matter how much I invested in the old one... I'll still invest in aftermarket items on the new one as well. :) Compatibility is nice, but not necessary.
 
I think it's the iTunes library that makes the iPhone sticky. I see Android users say, oh well, I already have an iPod so who cares? But with the iPhone you can have it all in one device.
 
archipellago said:
the more you pay for a product the happier you will be with it.... its a simple fact, in fact its got a statistical name somewhere.
Click to expand...

Uh huh. I'm sure that's the reason behind it. :rolleyes:

archipellago said:
I would say you are a classic example.....biased to the extreme point where the view is pointless.
Click to expand...

Ah, the old "accuse the opposition of bias rather than responding to facts with counter-facts" ploy. Someone already used that lame trick on me in this thread. You're too late. :p

archipellago said:
also, in real terms Mac users are (worldwide) almost statistically irrelevant. Easier to keep 13 million people a year happy than the other 287 million!
Click to expand...

Wait, Dell sells 287 million computers every year? Astounding!

And are Apple users happier because they pay too much (as you claimed above) or because there are too few of them? :confused:

archipellago said:
so when customers answer yes to the are they happy/unhappy with any product..... is it the OS, the manufacturer, the service or what?
Click to expand...

Yes.

archipellago said:
I've owned Macs for a long time... first eMac was my first, and my opinion has never been canvassed, maybe that's because I've complained to Apple and taken them to court a few times..? How impartial are these surveys.
Click to expand...

Wait, so now the survey data itself is bogus? I thought it was based on joy from overpaying or being a member of a minority. :confused:

You seem conflicted.
 
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