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Apple Taking 'Cautious Approach' to iPhone Assembly This Year, Lowering Component Orders by 20%
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I keep wondering the same thing. . . new campus built, an engineering center in OR, and looking to build another campus someplace. . . what are all these people doing?
Phones have become commodities.
Marketing will mean less and less, or more and more?
Can any advertising guys, here, chime in?
Marketing will mean less and less, or more and more?
Can any advertising guys, here, chime in?
Makes sense. The supply cut rumors from last year weren't incompatible with the iPhone results. It is entirely possible Apple placed orders on a pace to sell an expected 60+ million iPhone X and then had to cut back to 40 million once it was released. They had plenty of inventory on hand but didn't need any more and cut orders mid-way through the production cycle. That can put suppliers in an unexpected bind.
This upcoming year it would seem Apple thinks a slower start with a ramp-up if demand is higher than expected makes better business sense. Apple has shown it isn't afraid of two month wait times for a new product, and doing it this way gives suppliers better assurance they will be fulfilling orders for an entire 12 months instead of having to potentially idle production lines unexpectedly.
This upcoming year it would seem Apple thinks a slower start with a ramp-up if demand is higher than expected makes better business sense. Apple has shown it isn't afraid of two month wait times for a new product, and doing it this way gives suppliers better assurance they will be fulfilling orders for an entire 12 months instead of having to potentially idle production lines unexpectedly.
Crime is a very loose word when associated with stocks. Analysts know when they are going to release a report. The media knows when it will release a story. "Friends" know when to buy/sell. Anyone that thinks this doesn't happen is living in a fantasy world. I've seen it happen multiple times, even at the small companies I've been with.
I take the layperson approach, I just keep buying AAPL every three months with my dividends (although I did go with IBM this time, it's pretty low price right now, but 4% div, and views by some analysts are swinging from hold to buy).
Does anybody bother with applying basic logic to these fallacious "reports"?
Everybody on the planet knows that an iPhone X Plus is coming this September. That increases the total number of iPhone models being offered simultaneously from 15 to 17.
With two more models of the best selling smartphone (worldwide even though not yet available worldwide) being offered during the 2nd half of 2018, how in the hell can someone believe component orders, hence iPhone shipments will decrease 20%.
Nikkei has replaced Ming Chi Kuo as the worst source of iPhone information on the planet, but that hasn't stopped 17 reprints, as fact, of the article.
With the iPhone 7, also thought I had everything I needed. Until I realized that my previous iPhone 6 performed better at recording video. Video quality was so much smoother. Apparently there are video recording issues with iPhone 7 and upwards mentioned on Youtube. Turns out that Apple has the cinematic video stabilization (first introduced with iPhone 6) when you apply this setting at 1080p only on iPhone 7 models and higher. Apparently this results in shaky 4k videos if that is turned on. Probably too much processing for the chip to handle. On top of that, models from iPhone 7 contain the so called "optical image stabilization" which is supposed to generate great results when recording. But does not, due to that piece of hardware being so vulnerable to movement and possibly high frequency sounds, which does not seem to be fixable with a software update. Last I heard Apple might be working on a patent with OIS on correcting these issues in a future model. Will consider upgrading a 2018 or 2019 model depending on how soon Apple can implement the improvements for video.
*looks at calendar*
*About 3 months or so until the next iPhone comes out*
Yup, time for the stories to start coming out to scare up demand.
*About 3 months or so until the next iPhone comes out*
Yup, time for the stories to start coming out to scare up demand.
I think this time it might be true.
I’m not kidding I have literally seen maybe 3 or 4 iPhone X since it’s launch.
And I know of only 1 that got an iPhone 8+.
This years iPhone launch will be identical to EVERY other iPhone under Cook. A CPU that’s 1 level faster, a camera that as 1 more lense, and most likely that is all.
I mean look how bad the iOS 12 is. Outside of “controlling” app usage it does nothing new.
Well actually the emoji have tongues now so 2 NEW things lol.
I’m not kidding I have literally seen maybe 3 or 4 iPhone X since it’s launch.
And I know of only 1 that got an iPhone 8+.
This years iPhone launch will be identical to EVERY other iPhone under Cook. A CPU that’s 1 level faster, a camera that as 1 more lense, and most likely that is all.
I mean look how bad the iOS 12 is. Outside of “controlling” app usage it does nothing new.
Well actually the emoji have tongues now so 2 NEW things lol.
No, it doesn't
Yes, it would, and suppliers protect themselves from substantial changes to supply orders with contractual penalties should they occur.
Huh?
Everybody knows Apple is going to announce/release an iPhone X Plus this September. Total iPhone models being offered simultaneously will increase from 15 to 17. If everybody knows this then so does Apple. Apple would not cut orders and incur penalties (even if iPhone X sales were disappointing to Apple) knowing that they would need those components in the near term for the iPhone X in the next product cycle, and another model of the X, especially when many of the iPhone X's components are supply limited due to industry production capacity limitations.
I am not always looking at other people's phones, but I don't think I have seen one iPhone X other than the demo at Best Buy.
But, Apple has sold millions of them, so they have to be out there.
Interesting, this is the first I heard of this being the reason, but it has logic to it, at least when it comes to footprint.
With all the improvements Apple made with 10.6, I wonder what happened with 10.7?
Believe me, you would never downgrade to 7 after one day on X
the screen estate, the larger and crisper typo and colors, the lovely gestures instead of clicking on home button, the face unlock, and so on. Just put it in the leather case from Apple and you can throw it on the ground with no glass braking. I can tell you from several times
How many components are actually reused in a subsequent year's model? I suspect not many. Do you really think components like the FaceID module, the chipset, the screen and connector, the battery, and even the case are going to be 100% identical specification as the current X? Apple would be very much ahead by paying a cancellation penalty as opposed to having a bunch of 2017 era components in inventory.
Last year was supposed to be a super cycle of upgrades that didn't happen. Unit sales are still stagnant. Why wouldn't Apple plan for a level amount of unit sales for a fifth straight year next year rather than risk cancellation penalties and/or supplier disruptions?
It isn't that loose. Insider trading is a securities law crime. If you see it happen, you should report it to the SEC.
In terms of what analysts do, they prepare reports to advise their paying clients. It isn't living in a fantasy world to know that their jobs are not some sort of underworld conspiracy, as they so often portrayed. So yes, they are advising on buying and selling. That's the information they are peddling and they get paid by being right, not wrong. It is not even remotely illegal to form and disseminate opinions or forecasts.
In any case if you have your own investment plan and aren't trying to play the trading game, then why care what they say one way or another? I've been investing for over 30 years and over 20 in AAPL and have learned to invest based on my own goals and with the long game in mind. I've learned that the analysts are not to be distrusted or ignored entirely, but to be understood for imperfections of their analysis and the short timeframes they are generally considering. I know this isn't as appealing as calling them a clueless bunch of criminals, liars and cheats. But it is reality.
That’s the exact penalty I’m talking about. Having to pay an extra $112 just because they ran late this year. I always upgrade at launch. It would be a crap move on their part for some of their best fans.
So Apple will again be “surprised” with the “more demand than we expected” comment come next quarterly earnings?
Buying iPhones near the first two months of launch is really annoying, as you are competing with scalpers, especially in countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, or Japan where the Chinese scalpers will buy up most of the supplies, by cash.
Buying iPhones near the first two months of launch is really annoying, as you are competing with scalpers, especially in countries like Singapore, Hong Kong, or Japan where the Chinese scalpers will buy up most of the supplies, by cash.
Seems perfectly believable to me. iPhones (but also most other smartphones) are getting more and more expensive while updates get more and more incremental; a new iPhone will work perfectly well for several years. In fact, they are still selling new devices with several years old designs and processors because the technology already was very advanced several years ago.
I believe (and Apple probably does, too) that phones will move from a fast consumer goods market to where (their) computers are now: expensive but capable tools with longer upgrade cycles as they will do for a couple of years and are too expensive to be replaced more recently. And if that's the case, there's an increasing market saturation that makes for lower sale volumes (but steady revenue, probably).
I believe (and Apple probably does, too) that phones will move from a fast consumer goods market to where (their) computers are now: expensive but capable tools with longer upgrade cycles as they will do for a couple of years and are too expensive to be replaced more recently. And if that's the case, there's an increasing market saturation that makes for lower sale volumes (but steady revenue, probably).
20% fewer parts orders, but stock is only down 1.12%. That's not too bad. I'm guessing they had already expected a decrease in demand.
I understand what you are trying to say. You feel you should be able to upgrade sooner than a year without paying for however many months early you are when the new device is released. I do not understand how buying an iPhone X that was released in October or November and then wanting to upgrade to the next device that will likely be released in September and having to pay for the month or two that you are early to upgrade (according to the agreed upon terms) is the same as Apple preventing you from getting a new phone every year. You can get a phone every year. Or you can get a phone earlier than every year and pay the difference.
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I see lots of iPhones other than the X. Maybe 2 or 3 that clients have, but rarely any out in the wild.
For those on the installment plan, consider paying for the iPhone in cash. If you don't have that cash, wait until you do. My 17-year old granddaughter has figured that out on her own. When you are a little more successful, consider the same approach to buying a new car. Patience has its virtues. All of the items in my sig were purchased using cash.
It’s not really an “extra” $112 is it though? You were always going to pay $670 for the iPhone X you have and you’ll still only pay that.
If you choose to upgrade 2 months early because the next iPhone are available earlier, and bring forward 2 monthly instalments, that is your choice. But Apple is not asking/forcing you too and is still not charging you any extra over what you already agreed to pay them.
Personally speaking though, anyone who paid $999+ for a smartphone needs to give their head a little wobble anyways, so not really surprising so many struggle to grasp how their repayment plans work.
Just so everyone knows, this is fake new from the Nikkei Asian Review which was wrong just a few months ago about iPhone X and has been wrong many times before.
This report cites no specific people, companies, or entities to confirm the news, just "sources."
It's garbage, wrong, and designed to manipulate the stock. This is illegal and should be enforced, but it never will be.
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There are a lot of correctly bullish AAPL analysts. It's the idiots like Nikkei and Tony S. who are spreading nonsense all the time.
To be honest, Japan has no pulse on how Apple is doing, never have...so they shouldn't be listened to, ever.
This report cites no specific people, companies, or entities to confirm the news, just "sources."
It's garbage, wrong, and designed to manipulate the stock. This is illegal and should be enforced, but it never will be.
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What's not good is you believe this story is accurate after similar stories being proven wrong time and again.
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It's much better when you take an average. There are plenty of analysts who predicted 40M units and terrible results for iPhone X. Those were all wrong.
There are a lot of correctly bullish AAPL analysts. It's the idiots like Nikkei and Tony S. who are spreading nonsense all the time.
To be honest, Japan has no pulse on how Apple is doing, never have...so they shouldn't be listened to, ever.