Apple to Start Reopening U.S. Stores Next Week

[arn]

They specifically corrected for that. Along with demographic corrections (age, income and geography via zip code, race), they found the rates of cough and fever for their sample versus the general population, found that their sample did have a slightly higher rate, and then reweighed for it. See page 23 in their paper.

I didn't see that in the abstract. But correcting for it isn't really the same thing. Otherwise you could just do any study as non-randomized and correct for it. The reason people don't think that is acceptable is you don't know what you don't know and you can't correct for everything.

And just having same amount of cough % isn't a good way to standardize anyway, because maybe they had it 4 weeks ago, or asymptomatic etc...

arn

 

[Bolanders]

What exactly?

Is it worth it for the economy to shut down and likely ruin 30-50M people lives financially but to have half or 1/3 or 1/4 of the overall deaths that would have occurred? Each person has their own barometer so to speak.

I think people could weather this for 30 days or so, but they are now over it.

 

[JosephAW]

Why does Apple build stores only in hot zones? Must be a conspiracy.
Let each state decide what counties to open. Wear a mask. Problem solved.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Is it worth it for the economy to shut down and likely ruin 30-50M people lives financially but to have half or 1/3 or 1/4 od the overall deaths that would have occurred? Each person has their own barometer so to speak.

It depends on the timeline. Was it worth doing the lockdowns? Yes, the most important thing was to not overwhelm the healthcare system across the country.
Is it worth it now? I'd say it will depend by the state. I wouldn't completely open NYC, but I don't see many problems in reopening Texas with some extra precautions.
The reason for the lockdown was not to have less people dying from Covid-19, but to avoid unnecessary death from other issues (lack of masks, ventilators, respirators, beds, etc.). The virus won't be stopped until there's a vaccine, if there's going to be one.

 

[arn]

I think that is very fair but the million dollar question is how many peoples lives are going to be ruined financially? Is it worth it? We know it isn't with the flu since they don't shut down the economy for the flu. What is the acceptable death rate where it is not worth it? Is it total number of deaths and not the rate?

How many people died of the stress caused by the economy shutting down? How many still will?

Sure... and that's a completely separate argument. And I don't have a strong enough opinion about it to argue it. But that's completely separate debate from the "is coronavirus real or serious" debate that seems to happen in these threads.

I believe it's objectively serious (based on number of all-cause deaths with a lockdown).

Serious enough to wash your hands regularly? I think most people agree with that
Serious enough to shut down the economy for 5 years? I think most people don't agree with that

What we're arguing is what's the inbetween point.

arn

 

[mannyvel]

Really, the goal now should be to protect the people that are high-risk and let everyone else take their chances.

That means cordoning off nursing homes, etc. Anyone high-risk should either be wearing a mask or not going out. The senior hours are a good idea too, but it should probably be the "high risk" hour.

High risk means anyone old, obese, diabetic, male.

The question is whether we can make a wall around nursing and elder-care homes that works until a vaccine is ready. I think we can, because testing is rapid enough. That's going to cost, though.

 

[lkalliance]

Anyone who dies who has covid like symptoms can be included in the death count...Weakness is a symptom of covid. IDK anyone who dies without weakness. Hospitals get extra money for listing covid as cause of intake...they have a financial incentive to pump the numbers. I'm not sayings it's not a real thing to be concerned about, I'm just saying the numbers presented here are likely inflated.

One can reasonably debate whether they are miscounting COVID deaths, and reasonably point out the possible alternate motivations. The true impact of the disease will show itself when you compare the total deaths week to week to the totals from the same weeks in prior years. Then we don't have to argue about who counts, we can broadly see the impact.

I feel dirty now, talking about these unfortunate losses as numbers. Let's hope this ends with loss of life far less than the worst case.

 

[gamerdude]

Only in America some consider a pandemic to be a hoax.

 

[Timothy Leo Crowley]

The nominal death rate in the US over two months is 487,000. The question isn't whether people die. The question is how it compares to other causes of deaths. The majority of people grossly misestimate risks and causes of deaths.

The number of people in the US who die from slip, trips, and falls annually, (17k) is 45% that of car accidents (38k), and greater than those who die from AIDS-related illnesses (13k). Yet we say that cars are dangerous, educate kids about HIV, and completely ignore rugs and hard floors.

You're seriously trying to compare a virus with slips and falls. Sorry, but respectfully, you don't know what you're talking about. Good luck.

 

[iOS Geek]

Even if you believe that, it doesn't explain this. More deaths than typical for time of year.

View attachment 913332

The Pandemic’s Hidden Toll: Half a Million Deaths (Published 2020)

Far more people died in 2020 during the pandemic than have been officially reported, a review of mortality data in 35 countries shows.

www.nytimes.com

Oh I'm well aware that it's atypical for this point in the year. I fully agree with you there. But it doesn't change the fact that we're fudging the numbers. I've treated these patients. I've seen the numbers. It's no coincidence that hospitals in my area have seen an increase in COVID deaths while also seeing a signifiant drop in deaths of other causes at the same time. There are claims that a facility near mine has had ZERO deaths due to heart attacks in the last two months. I'm not buying that. It's a facility that specializes in cardiac care. But because they also have the same capability that my hospital does...they have treated almost as many COVID patients as we have.
Couple that with the state public health director outright admitting that we're fudging the numbers...then it even brings question to at least SOME (absolutely NOT all) of those numbers in the atypical range. I have no doubt that even if the manipulated numbers were taken out, that we would STILL have an atypical total for this time of year. But the numbers as we are being given are still less than honest and accurate. Maybe only a minimal amount of those totals are the result of manipulated data. I would feel confident in saying that it's NOT a HUGE percentage. But I would like to see more honesty in the numbers.

 

[MattMJB0188]

But, but, if they open to soon people will get sick again. Please. Nothing should have ever closed! FACTS.

 

[compwiz1202]

This thread is an absolute goldmine of science deniers to add to my ignore list

And this is another example of horrid moderation. The last two pages haven't even been on topic!

 

[NickName99]

Well, to be fair, as I mentioned above...my state's director of public health admitted on live television that this is what we're doing. If someone dies of say, a heart attack, for instance and a postmortem test results in a positive for COVID...then they died of COVID and not the heart attack.

That’s a way more nuanced statement than the original one, which was that all of those other deaths were misreported. If you died of a heart attack with no covid19 symptoms that’s one thing, but what if you died of a heart attack while on a ventilator with covid19? That’s a whole other can of worms right there.

What’s the point of all these attempts to downplay it as some kind of hoax? It resembles sticking one’s head in the sand and hoping the bad thing will go away. It doesn’t seem particularly brave or helpful.

 

[ericwn]

you must be a flat-earther too, right?

After a couple drinks of bleach, it really does seem flat!

 

[supergt]

This thread should be locked for rampant stupidity.

 

[compwiz1202]

You probably don't push the "walk" button when you cross the street either, do you? Those are for weenies. You da man! /s

Hate the people more that do hit the button but still cross early. And then the freaking walk signal wastes another 30s with nobody crossing.

 

[ericwn]

Exactly, killing the economy has done more damage than this flu ever did

Yeah, that poor economy anywhere. Nevermind a quarter of a million fatalities, that poor economy!

 

[compwiz1202]

Why does Idaho have an Apple store?

Yea it should have Potato Stores

 

[Darth Tulhu]

As for me and my family, this means nothing. My daughter will continue to educate remotely. I will continue to work from home, and practice all the social-distancing and safety measures that have been implemented as if they were never lifted. Order online as much as I can, shop at off-peak or late hours, and clean EVERYTHING.

Then I can sit back, popcorn in hand as I watch Darwin Awards going out towards the fools that take this disease lightly.

I LOVE IT when foolish behavior smacks fools with the consequences of their foolishness.

So, take note of the fools in your families and friends, folks, and keep them at a distance.

We might even see a reduction in MacRumors posters!

 

[lkalliance]

Oh I'm well aware that it's atypical for this point in the year. I fully agree with you there. But it doesn't change the fact that we're fudging the numbers. I've treated these patients. I've seen the numbers. It's no coincidence that hospitals in my area have seen an increase in COVID deaths while also seeing a signifiant drop in deaths of other causes at the same time. There are claims that a facility near mine has had ZERO deaths due to heart attacks in the last two months. I'm not buying that. It's a facility that specializes in cardiac care. But because they also have the same capability that my hospital does...they have treated almost as many COVID patients as we have.
Couple that with the state public health director outright admitting that we're fudging the numbers...then it even brings question to at least SOME (absolutely NOT all) of those numbers in the atypical range. I have no doubt that even if the manipulated numbers were taken out, that we would STILL have an atypical total for this time of year. But the numbers as we are being given are still less than honest and accurate. Maybe only a minimal amount of those totals are the result of manipulated data. I would feel confident in saying that it's NOT a HUGE percentage. But I would like to see more honesty in the numbers.

This isn't so much a rebuttal to your post but you did remind me of something I read a couple of days ago:

Where are the heart attacks and strokes?

It seems (at least to the reporters in this case) that ER use is way down in areas that aren't car injuries and the like...they're worried that people that are experiencing heart problems or are showing signs of something very serious are too afraid to go to the ER, for fear of contracting COVID-19.

 

[Bolanders]

Yeah, that poor economy anywhere. Nevermind a quarter of a million fatalities, that poor economy!

Are 30-50 million ruined financial lives worth it? Why don't you believe we should shut it down every winter when the flu kills from 40,000-70,000 people in the US. Worldwide the flu kills from 300,000 to 650,000 per year. Why not shut the economy down every year?

I'll wait for your answer.

Because what you wrote is that 250,000 equals shutting down the economy for the greater good (in your eyes at least).

 

[iOS Geek]

That’s a way more nuanced statement than the original one, which was that all of those other deaths were misreported. If you died of a heart attack with no covid19 symptoms that’s one thing, but what if you died of a heart attack while on a ventilator with covid19? That’s a whole other can of worms right there.

What’s the point of all these attempts to downplay it as some kind of hoax? It resembles sticking one’s head in the sand and hoping the bad thing will go away. It doesn’t seem particularly brave or helpful.

I'm not downplaying it or calling it a hoax. I've treated COVID patients. I know full well how real and NOT made up this is. But there is still some dishonesty going around in the counts. People might be less inclined to doubt the severity of what we're facing... if there was more honesty and less manipulation about it. Using reopening as an example. There is a huge amount of people in my state that are using today's announcement of almost 3000 new cases as a reason not to reopen. Because our cases are still increasing. That part...is true. We have an increasing number of cases. However, these results came from a testing sample that is the largest daily testing period we've done. Those ~3000 cases...represent 14% of the tests for that time period. Which is among our LOWEST growth percentages, if not THE lowest growth rate we've seen. But the media isn't giving the percentages. They are using the raw numbers as a reason to say we shouldn't reopen. And they also have people convinced that these increases are happening because we are reopening. We haven't even begun reopening yet. These cases aren't a result of reopening and allowing people to go to an Apple Store, for instance (my state isn't on the list for reopening an Apple Store, but I'm just using it as an example). And they aren't a result of loosened restrictions either, because the loosening...literally just started.

 

[QCassidy352]

Over 75k dead (and rising at about 2k per day) over two months despite the most extreme social distancing the US has ever undertaken. For anyone downplaying the deadliness of this virus, what do you think that number would look like without social distancing? Not only would cases skyrocket, but what do you think would happen to the death rate if there weren’t hospital beds, trained medical staff, and ventilators for everyone who needed them?

 

[iOS Geek]

This isn't so much a rebuttal to your post but it does remind me of something I read a couple of days ago:

Where are the heart attacks and strokes?

It seems (at least to the reporters in this case) that ER use is way down in areas that aren't car injuries and the like...they're worried that people that are experiencing heart problems or are showing signs of something very serious are too afraid to go to the ER.

Now THAT...I would absolutely agree with. I'd almost guarantee that this is happening. That being a very likely situation...of course brings an entirely new problem to light.

 

[Bolanders]

Over 75k dead (and rising at about 2k per day) over two months despite the most extreme social distancing the US has ever undertaken. For anyone downplaying the deadliness of this virus, what do you think that number would look like without social distancing? Not only would cases skyrocket, but what do you think would happen to the death rate if there weren’t hospital beds, training medical staff, and ventilators for everyone who needed them?

I can definitely agree that we need to make sure that the system is not overwhelmed, but the death rate is likely going to end up near the flu IMO. This is definitely more contagious though.