Hello, everyone! This is my first time posting in this thread. I have been stalking it like crazy though! I just thought I would put in my $0.02 here.
I preordered about 50 minutes after the order page went live. I bought the 64GB version and I paid $17 for faster shipping. Normally, I wouldn't pay extra for shipping but I did in this case because I live in an area ( Alabama ) where there are no Apple stores. The closest one to me is a 3 hour drive one way, so to me, the shipping was worth it to have it on Friday so I could have it over the weekend.
Well, that $17 was a waste. I still do not have a shipping confirmation and am expecting to not receive my Apple TV today but yet people ( no blame to you guys! ) who did not pay shipping, even other people I have seen in my same state, are getting theirs today. Yes a very long string of curse words are echoing in my head right now. I am beyond frustrated! The only chance of me getting one today is to try to get one from Best Buy. This whole ordering experience was horrible!
I think a lot of this has to do with UPS. I've posted several times yesterday over an issue where Apple said I'd get something at one point and UPS had something completely different listed.
I know your situation is different however my point is that UPS had the wrong info. It is entirely possible to still receive your shipment today however I do agree with your thinking if Apple still shows processing then you may not get one today.
I'll also add that when the iPhone 6 Plus came out I did not receive a UPS tracking number via UPS my choice or my carrier until it was already at my local hub in the neighboring city. Sometimes (and I documented this in my previous post) they do not scan bulk orders individually until they're at their last hub.
My orders some of which were expedited now correctly reflect they're out for delivery however yesterday when they left Mt Juliet (Major Hub) they were showing as coming on Monday then when they hit the regional hub they (assumed) broke down the pallets and scanned each order individually and updated the shipping times.