Ebay takes around a 20% cut with fees and shipping. I'm seeing some listings for $5000, so after all is said and done, they won't be getting more than $500 in profits. Seems a lot of risk to potentially lose $5k for less than $500 profit. Ebay generally sides with the buyer over the seller.
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Apple Vision Pro Delivery Dates Slip to Mid-March
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But the examples you brought up are from established categories… TVs, phones, laptops and cars.
This is a whole new territory with VR/AR/MR headsets… Meta has poured billions into it without any huge profits (at least, not that I’m aware of). I’m only looking at the category in itself… Quest is the gold standard when it comes to headsets and I haven’t come close to buying one.
Not trying to compare Meta to Apple, but it needs to be stated that how many average Joes are willing to place something on their head. TVs have the potential to be used for years… regardless of how expensive it could be, shared among family and friends. While pricey smartphones can be traded in as a way to subsidized the cost and be used for years as well.
Same thing with laptops and cars… used for years, but the question I ponder will the Vision Pro be a device annually updated? And what will be the lifespan in terms of software support? Even YouTube and Netflix hasn’t fully embraced it yet.
And from what orifice did you pull that number?
HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors G5
Yes, but at one time, each of those was a brand new thing too. I have lived long enough that there was a time where not one person- rich or poor- owned a cell phone... not one person owned a laptop... Apple did not even exist for a tiny slice of my life, etc. All mainstream tech things we take for granted today as ubiquitous had a time in history where there was a first buyer... likely ridiculed for bothering with that "dumb thing that will never catch on."
And Meta also rolled out the Facebook Phone. Remember that one? Microsoft tried the Windows phone. Remember that? There were MP3 players long-since in place before iPod. Apple was selling LG 5K monitors for YEARS before rolling out ASD. Mighty Amazon and Google were selling smart speakers years before HomePods. Shall I go on? All of those offerings were/are also CHEAPER than Apples too. One can get a pretty robust Android smart phone for 20% of iPhones price today.
Apple is always LATE to whatever tech party. What "we" usually spin is "Apple is not always first but they wait until it can be done right." However, "we" seem to have this negative slant on this ONE product and are forgetting all of the usual gotos for about everything else.
Let's see if mighty-(est?) Apple's cut at this can make it a success. That requires a little patience & observation instead of digging the grave and burying the body before anyone can actually touch & see the body yet.
We collectively ridicule all things Meta/FB, Google, Microsoft, Samsung in countless threads... except in this instance where we seem to be assuming since they couldn't hugely succeed, how could Apple have any chance? Did those other players become smarter than Apple and I missed it? Do they have greater resources than Apple and I missed that? Who is king or near king of the tech mountain at any given time last few years?
And if so, maybe Apple does find a way to increase the manufacturing so they can sell additional units to additional demand: there's a big world beyond only the 5% or so of the global population living here in the USA.
To be determined. I recall when the first big brick cell phones were out and people were ridiculing the whole concept... that the masses would never want to carry around a phone at all times. Why would I want the potential for people to bug me with calls anywhere I am? My boss would be able to call me at any time and I want work to stay at work and private life time to be my own. Besides there are pay phones everywhere if I need to make a call. Etc.
Did you know that AT&T spun off their entire cellular business at one point in time to pursue much more sensible landline opportunities going forward... and then had to buy their way back into it when it turned out there was mass potential for cell phones.
Are we not the "think different" crowd? Or perhaps I don't understand what that tagline means?
Is there anyone who doesn't already have a TV- or more than one- in place? Vpro won't replace TVs for social/family watching. In such scenarios, people will use the tech they already have. But there are those other times where one is solo and away from the physically anchored tech at home or office. Instead of making do with a 2-3 inch high screen or maybe a 7-8 inch high tablet or even a 8-11 inch laptop screen, one might rather work on or watch something on a 50"-100" screen, etc. Here's an easy, portable, mobile way to do that for that person. There is NO way to carry the big screen TV and surround sound system setup at home onto the plane, to the hotel, onto the train, etc. I have no way to easily take the 40" desktop screen everywhere I travel... so dropping down to only 16" is quite the productivity plunge. Maybe this can help me have the 40" with me in such cases? Or 50" or 100"?
This probably doesn't replace phones unless some of the iPad VOIP apps make that an option in wifi zones. My cellular iPad Mini is my phone (VOIP + buds) so I can actually envision the possibility.
But this product also won't be worth nothing in a few years. So if someone wants the next version, they sell or trade this one in to reduce the cost of the next one... just like they do with phones, tablets or computers. Many of those people who are wanting "cheaper" will probably only get some of their price points by buying THIS generation as used in a few years.
Both of which had a time when not one person owned one... and then a time where only relatively wealthy people owned them... and then many pretty much own them now.
Nothing- not even iPhone- jumped from nobody to huge numbers in a day, in a week, in a month, in a year. How many iPhone 1s shipped in that entire first year? Statista says 1.4 million. It wasn't gigantic numbers of iPhone after all of year 1. Time will show us if this is a complete fail or a huge hit. My guess: somewhere in between the two.
Aside: work the revenue math of iPhone vs. Vpro potential:
- 1.4M times about $350 per phone on average = $490,000,000 in revenue for all of year 1.
- $490M divided by an average of about $3700 per AVP (assuming in some upgrades) = approx. 133K units.
Comparing some 200 million iPhone units likely to be shipped in 2024 vs. a brand new kind of product just launching in 2024 makes no sense. But if you get more head to head and measure in dollars, iPhone 1 revenue vs. potential Vpro revenue is not so far apart if Vpro sells out in the next 12 months. If they can make more than the starter 80K and people buy them, it's not a great leap to assume 133K is possible.
If so, would that mean Vpro is destined to be as big as iPhone in the longer run. Of course not. Phone functionality is probably much more mainstream than VR/AR may ever be before it can be implanted and thus invisible and somehow magically powered. But again, I wouldn't start digging the grave now until enough time passes to prove if Apple can make upwards of about 60% as much revenue as iPhone 1 did in its maiden year (if not 100% or more)... which requires selling only the amount they've apparently already made, plus another 53K units by this time next year.
Probably not... like just about all Silicon last few years has not been annually updated, except iPhone... which must be updated each year even in there is not a great leap in the A-series brain... because far too much of Apple's revenue revolves around this single product.
When iPhone launched, it had ZERO third party app support. Apple Marketing says Vpro is launching with more than 1 MILLION apps on day 1... which is admittedly almost entirely iPad apps- not customized ones for Vpro- able to run in the Vpro view. But even there... vs. iPad, Vpro allows many of them to run together in the same view at the same time... a significant advantage over multi-tasking on iPad.
We're about 4 years into Silicon Macs now and "we" generally consider them a huge success. However, there are tons of apps that have not yet gone Silicon... and some that may never go Silicon.
Where's that huge mix of AAA games on mighty iPhone? Where's all those ray-trace games on M3 Macs? There's still plenty of select media not available through the iTunes Store. Etc.
I have zero expectations of having everything on day 1, before even one customer possesses one yet. But passage of time will either move stragglers to join the mix... or not... same with unpublished media not yet on iTunes... same with AAA games on Silicon... same with apps not yet evolved for Silicon. Until they make an app (or don't), one can watch YouTube and Netflix and all of the other kinds of media not available in apps via Safari.
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I had forgotten that pre-orders opened today until I saw this article (around 10:18am Pacific). I went to the Apple website, did the sizing with my phone, configured it and was able to place an order (for a model with 256GB) with delivery on February 2nd. So I'm confused about the assertion that delivery times are slipping.
It appears they slipped and are coming back down. Did you by chance do in store pickup? It might just be the ship to home times that have slipped.
In the past the Apple Watch delivery date could depend on which Watch band you selected so it isn't impossible that they didn't have enough stock of a particular size light seal.
if they do not have a U.S. Apple I.D. then it will not work correctly per Apple notes.
It’s new so it’s exciting. Only big question now is it practical and useful. And the answer is that it’s not for everybody. However there are enough people that the Vision Pro will have a use for be it gaming, spatial computing or movie watching etc
I think the delivery times may vary depending on your facial scan for the light seal because mine are still available for deliver feb 2nd
Do you really think there's a huge market for scalping these? Sure a few anxious enthusiasts with more money than sense might fall for it, but nowhere close the PS5. I doubt there's a huge market even at 3.5K, anything beyond that is insane.
Sony has failed to make a compelling case for its $500 VR device, which is backed up by the console gaming leader. I just don't see how this will take off, at least in its current state with its current capabilities.
HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors G5
I don't know. A whole bunch are now marked up on Ebay right now. If Apple announces any kind of sold out or "not available for 6 months" timeline or similar, watch "completed transactions" on Ebay and see how many complete and at what higher price they sold. It was quite robust for PS5 priced well above retail when they were in short supply for about 15+ months.
If maybe the goal is to sell them to the rest of the world since Apple is not (yet), you might be able to check "Completed Transactions" as soon as a week or two after Feb 2 and see how many have indeed paid the scalper price for one.
I have seen $17K Apple Edition watches sell with not one bit of added technical functionality vs. the base model gen 1 that was also sale (no, the bit of gold involved was not THAT much more costly). I've seen people pay $40K for courtside seats to a single basketball game. I've paid $1500 for a couple of row 8 seats to a single basketball game. A few weeks ago someone paid (was it about) $60K for a gen 1 iPhone that they can't ever use (only hoping that they can sell it for more in the future). People will pay millions for art that only hangs on a wall somewhere, does nothing and probably will rarely be seen by more than a small number of eyes. I've paid $6K for a TV that is forever anchored to a single spot in my home until it conks. In a retail job in college, I sold huge quantities of Rolex watches for as much as $15K each that were less time accurate than a $3 Timex and had no other functionality or any apps. I've seen all manner of crazy stuff for sale on Ebay and can't believe some of it sells. Maybe give this a look to get a sense of it all. A simple lunch with Buffet sold for over $4 million on Ebay.
$3500 is an "eye of the beholder" dollar amount. Ask me to spend it when I was 15 and I'd think I'd need 20 summers of lawn mowing like mad to maybe have enough. Ask me in 2024 and that's just a portion of homeowner insurance for only 1 year that I'll thoroughly hope I will not make 1 claim against. Check a star or NBA players tip for service for a single dinner and it might be that much or more. It's relative. Is $1500 for a phone expensive? There's a mid-specced MB16" for sale right now at $3499 vs. say a cheap Chromebook available for $200. Is that $3499 "expensive." Mac guy may passionately argue no but Chromebook guy may think it's insanely expensive.
I fully appreciate your pessimism about this product. It all reads like it is not for you. Other people may feel differently. There's over 8 Billion other people on the planet. It doesn't take but a tiny slice of them to buy every one that Apple makes in 2024, including every one that is scalped on Ebay. Maybe they sell out? Maybe they don't? We find out in time. Our guesses- positive or negative- mean almost nothing in getting to the the answer to such questions.
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I have a big head as well. Mine was 25W as well. I did three measurements, it was 25W twice and 23W once. Still available Feb 2