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Apple Watch Demand Flattening as 42mm Models Estimated to Represent Over 80% of Orders
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Apple Watch is the first mainline Apple product I've seen in recent years that I immediately thought wasn't going to be a big hit.
The price is silly high for a complementary product to the iPhone, and it just comes off as something that's nice to have, and not necessary at all.
IMO they've got to hit $199 to truly get big sales with this product. I expect to see a price drop by the time the second version arrives next year.
The price is silly high for a complementary product to the iPhone, and it just comes off as something that's nice to have, and not necessary at all.
IMO they've got to hit $199 to truly get big sales with this product. I expect to see a price drop by the time the second version arrives next year.
In an election, you have well-tested, statistically validated, randomized methods of surveying that have been refined over repeated elections spanning decades where you *always* find out the results. In this case, you have consumer buying guesses that are neither randomized nor statistically valid, in part because the statisticians don't generally get access to actual results.
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Also an election generally has two main contenders, usually each with 40 to 60% of the vote, which makes the statistics more meaningful. In our case, if Apple sells 10 million, that's less than one-third of one percent in the United States. Given that most election surveys have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 to 5 percent, you can see the issue. The margin of error is at least 10 times greater than the percentage you're trying to measure.
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Those are subjective qualities. I'm looking at my SS Apple Watch with classic leather buckle and I think it looks amazing, slick, beautiful, well-crafted/designed
Great, it's the best house in a lousy neighborhood. Hope you enjoy living there....
Everything Apple (and plenty other consumer electronics companies) makes is unnecessary and arguably overpriced. It just strikes me as odd that people think nothing of upgrading their cell phone to the latest and greatest every year or two, when really, their old phone functions just fine. Yet to spend $399 on a watch, well that's just stupid.
And the price--the price is $399, anything above that you're are paying extra for aesthetics, looks, materials, the jewelry factor. But when you're talking about the value/functionality, the $399 price is the benchmark.
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I know right? Just think how much better they'll be in 4-6 years!!! That's when they'll be truly be awesome.
Huh! The expected demand was ALWAYS 15M in 2015; that's what I saw pre-launch for 1 year. So, revising BS predictions is now called "falling demand"... Those so called analysts are useless hacks.
15M would be a better launch than the Ipod and Iphone. Its less than the Ipad, but the Ipad was a device with a broader appeal.
15M would be a better launch than the Ipod and Iphone. Its less than the Ipad, but the Ipad was a device with a broader appeal.
Perhaps you don't get out enough lol. I've seen about seven 4:3 men to women. Ages appx 30-60. Sport 5, SS 2. Perhaps SoCal is Apple Watch country.
At the numbers quoted Apple will sell more of them than Macbooks and Mac Pros. Of course it isn't necessary. Almost none of the stuff in modern society is necessary.
No fan of the Apple Watch or the post-Jobs Apple in general, but this is an astounding number of units compared to what Android was able to do (and I love my ZenWatch).
I still question the value of a wearable > $200. But that's just me. I think the Apple Watch doesn't have enough value for its price tag (and to be honest, a wearable is just an extra hassle sometimes).
I still question the value of a wearable > $200. But that's just me. I think the Apple Watch doesn't have enough value for its price tag (and to be honest, a wearable is just an extra hassle sometimes).
When I used the word "necessary" I mean in that the product clearly justifies it's usefulness. iPhone, obviously useful. iPad, obviously useful as a bigger screen to enjoy the internet and videos on. Laptop, obviously useful. Apple Watch? It gives me notifications on my wrist, and tells me my heart rate, for $400+. The Apple Watch is a really tough sell at it's current price.
The best part about owning an Apple Watch is how little I have my phone in my pocket while I am at home. Instead I find myself spending less time with a screen in front of my face and more time doing other things. Now many will not need a watch for this, but in a culture where I pick up my phone to see if I have missed calls, messages or emails, somehow I always ended up on using twitter or safari. It was a time sucker. I love being able to wrestle with my kids and glance quickly for a missed call or a missed message. My wife has noticed the same usage pattern for herself as well. Necessary - No. Convenient - Definitely.
I've had one since launch day, i have 3 friends who are currently still awaiting dispatch, saying June. 2 friends want one, but are waiting until stores have stock so they can just walk in.
Its one of those products you don't actually see its usefulness until you wear one for a week. I would hate to be without mine now, my iPhone battery life is even better now because I'm doing all those micro notifications on my watch. Its so handy to quickly take that call while say chopping vegetables just a simple press with 1 finger, before with the phone i would have to drop everything , wipe my hands then answer the call, does not even have to be a call just your phone making a noise you can just look at your wrist to see if its something you can just ignore for now.
I think once more watches get into the hands of people, and their friends see them using it and them talking about how handy it is, then the watch will slowly start building up even more sales.
My only regret now is that i did not go for the SS version, i went for the sport because i was not sure if i would actually use and take it to so did not want to spend £1000 on something i might not really use, i was so wrong.
Its one of those products you don't actually see its usefulness until you wear one for a week. I would hate to be without mine now, my iPhone battery life is even better now because I'm doing all those micro notifications on my watch. Its so handy to quickly take that call while say chopping vegetables just a simple press with 1 finger, before with the phone i would have to drop everything , wipe my hands then answer the call, does not even have to be a call just your phone making a noise you can just look at your wrist to see if its something you can just ignore for now.
I think once more watches get into the hands of people, and their friends see them using it and them talking about how handy it is, then the watch will slowly start building up even more sales.
My only regret now is that i did not go for the SS version, i went for the sport because i was not sure if i would actually use and take it to so did not want to spend £1000 on something i might not really use, i was so wrong.
Why order one now when you will be able to walk into a store and pick one up next month? Much sooner than ordering online and getting a sometime in July ship date.
"Looking at your palm"? I guess there's not much difference. But aren't we supposed to be discussing technology products?
I presume you are actually referencing an iPhone, and pretending that checking one's iPhone repeatedly is comparable to "looking at your palm every two seconds." But that, of course, is a ridiculous pretense; digging out one's iPhone from a pocket, bag, or drawer, unlocking it, and then locating whatever information one is searching for is a process that takes far more than "two seconds"—and it's a process that clearly doesn't feel worthwhile, in the context of seeking a small piece of information (such as the time, the temperature, one's daily fitness status, etc.), to many Watch users of the kind who have responded to you.
Pretending that relying on an iPhone for such functions is equivalent to "looking at your palm every two seconds" is sneery, trollish behavior. It's an open-faced, bad-faith refusal to engage in an actual discussion about the asserted benefits of the Watch as a product. In short, you're acting like a jerk.
Again, that's a trollish sneer with no connection to reality. You can check your Watch hundreds of times a day without the slightest concern about killing the battery before bedtime.
Again: sneer, sneer, sneer. Plenty of sarcasm, but no substance whatsoever. You didn't even try to address what bbeagle was saying, why (s)he found the Watch vital in his/her use case. Truly ugly.
In light of the fact that you are responding to someone who actually owns and uses (and values) an Apple Watch, I have no idea why "IN PRINCIPLE" is such an enormously important issue to you. This discussion is not about smartphones and smartwatches in some kind of theoretical abstract; we're talking about actual iPhones and actual Apple Watches and the actual experiences that a number of owners of the latter have had with them. In that actual context, "checking a phone every 15-30 minutes is such a different feeling than a watch"—not least because checking the Watch requires a substantially lesser commitment of time and effort to access the piece of simple information sought. What "PRINCIPLE" does that somehow violate?
Given that you are parrying the direct testimonies of a number of happy Watch owners with nothing more than your uninformed armchair theorizing, may I suggest that the problem that leads you to "just n[o]t see how" is not a problem with the Watch, but with you?
Yeah, well here's the thing---the usefullness of the heart rate monitor is not in just "telling you your heart rate". The use cases happen when you do a workout and the watch needs to estimate how many calories you've burned. And while heart rate is an important vital sign to your overall health, nobody really gives a flip about it unless they're using it to figure other things out. I have my watch feeding my fitness data to another app so that it can figure it in with all my food intake and see where I'm at for the day. None of this has to be done manually by me. I just do the workout and everything else takes care of itself.
I've been using the Apple Watch for a few weeks now, and I would say about half of the benefit of owning it is the fitness features. If you're not going to take advantage of those, I would advise not buying one.
Like other users have said, I'm also using it to read/answer messages and phone calls and triage my emails. The notifications, glances, and apps are just icing on the cake. In fact, three different times now, I've accidentally left my phone at the house when I leave because I'm just used to leaving it in the kitchen and doing everything on my watch when I'm home.
The use cases are many for the Apple Watch. Apple just hasn't done a good job showcasing what they are.
I don't "need" a laptop, since I can have (and do have) a desktop computer everywhere that I go. I don't need an iPhone, because I can just get a feature phone. I don't need a car, I can take the bus. I don't need to eat out, because I can cook and grow my own food.
I don't need my iPhone 6 either, but I have no problem blowing $$ for a 42 SS Milanese. It wasn't a tough sell for me.
I'm talking about having two USB-C ports on a $1500 computer. I'm talking about having the same year GPU in a $2000 computer. I'm talking about having a workstation laptop for software developers that isn't solely focused on thinness, but rather expandability and retaining the ability to upgrade components. I'm talking about a workstation desktop that isn't cylindrical for the sake of design.
What nonsense are you talking about?
It seems like interest is actually picking up around me. Someone walked into my office the other day with one they bought and numerous co-workers have said they are ordering one now. About a month ago when I first got mine, no one seemed to care.
I couldn't help but read that in a Thurston Howell voice.
"Mummy loves her new watch."
Capital observation old man! Now, off to the club for cocktails!
But that's obviously (extremely) subjective.
All of those statements are doubted by millions upon millions of people.
And it tells the time. And it keeps track of your calendar. And it tells you the weather, both current and forecast. And it tracks your daily calorie consumption, exercise duration, and standing progress (far more than just heart rate). And it provides timer and stopwatch functions. And it serves as an NFC token for Apple Pay, hotel rooms, and untold numbers of similar functions TBA. And it provides Passbook functions, such as airline boarding passes. And it tells you the latest stock quotes. And it tells you the latest sports scores. And it acts as a remote control for iTunes and Apple TV (and very likely, in the near future, HomeKit). And it acts as a remote viewfinder for your iPhone camera. And it gives you turn-by-turn directions. And it acts as a Bluetooth speakerphone for your iPhone. And it permits texting and other new forms of communication with other iPhone and Apple Watch users.
...All of which is on your wrist, which makes it considerably more convenient to access than an iPhone (buried, and just as importantly locked, in your pocket or bag or charger) could ever be.
Which is far less than many, many people already pay for very nice watches (that boast overwhelmingly less functionality than the Apple Watch).
Only given your expurgated account of what the product actually does. In very much the same way that you blithely declare that an iPhone, iPad, or laptop is "obviously useful," a large number of people who have actually used an Apple Watch contend that it justifies its price tag just as blatantly.
Yet it will sell 10 times more than any other previous cheaper watches... Hmmm... I always find it funny when people can't got beyond their own self to see how it could be useful to others. The Ipod was much more expensive than that (in 2015 money) and had a much narrower use case.