Apple Watch Demand Flattening as 42mm Models Estimated to Represent Over 80% of Orders

[usarioclave]

A. Its expensive for what it does.

My wife and I have been drawing messages to each other for the last 20 minutes. It's these fun, stupid things that make the watch really worth it.

Don't think of it as a productivity aid, even though it can be one. Think of it as a fun gadget that does lots of fun things. Calling someone with your watch? It's neat, and can be useful at times. Getting notifications, scanning email, and reading/replying to messages immediately? it's not really compelling, until you get to be dependent on it. Heart rate, music, etc? Sure, whatever.

I can turn my lights on/off and trigger the AC, pay for stuff, and book a round of golf.

It's a wrist swiss army knife.

 

[Mildredop]

how are people translating "demand flattening" to flop?

I'm shocked it is 80% 42mm. I thought it would be closer to 70/30.

I guess because for demand to flatten so soon after launch (has it even launched?!) suggests there aren't a great deal of people interested in it.

I would imagine things like the iPhone and iPad showed strong, increasing demand for many months/years. The iPhone probably still sees that.

 

[BrerBear]

Wrong.

The iPhone sold over 10 million in its first year. The iPad sold over 15 million in its first year.

Not true for the iPhone.

Q3 2007 0.27 million
Q4 2007 1.19 million
Q1 2008 2.315 million
Q2 2008 1.703 million
Q3 2008 0.717 million

It wasn't until Q4 2008 after the launch of the second model (3G) that sales jumped to 6.89 million.

 

[Michael CM1]

This is ridiculous. That number is still 5x that of the nearest competitor and is a great first round for a tech accessory. Haters, shut up. It's still a cool product just maybe not for you-- just like you probably don't have at least one item from the Apple lineup.

"NASA decides to just visit nearest star system with new time-warping space ship."

That's basically how I read it. Apple is still outselling everybody else despite it being a first gen product and available in zero stores right now. Also, if you go online now and see that it'll be six weeks to get a watch, you're not quite as tempted as you would be if it said two to three days.

 

[TechRemarker]

Ping?

Ping isn't/wasn't a product. Just an extra feature/layer they added to iTunes. Which of course was dead on arrival, because it would only work if everyone was using iTunes like everyone is using Facebook. So Ping wasn't so much a flop as it's timing. They should have waited until people were using iTunes again which won't happen until they offer on demand unlimited playing for a monthly fee along with curated stations and user generated playlists like Spotify.

 

[Yojimbo007]

he says the Apple Watch has a lack of killer apps, not a very useful Digital Crown, insufficient battery life, room for form factor improvement, sometimes sluggish processing and response times and iPhone dependance for most settings and internet access.

Kuo has no idea what he is talking about... If the above comment is an indication of what he knows !

 

[TechRemarker]

The big problem is:
Why I need an Apple Watch?

You don't "need" an apple watch, just like you don't need a "watch" and just like you don't need a tablet. The average person needs a computer and a phone. But everything else is a luxury and watch makers and tablet makers don't expect to be something everyone needs like a phone. But rather a supplemental purchase for people who can afford it and find value in it.

It will improve your interactions with your iPhone but no, Apple nor anyway is saying you need one.

 

[TMRJIJ]

Wrong.

The iPhone sold over 10 million in its first year. The iPad sold over 15 million in its first year.

Corrected post. iPhone sold 6.1 million units in first year.

 

[mattopotamus]

80% of the watches sold were 42 mm because Apple screwed up by making a 38 mm watch. If anything, the 42mm should have been the smaller watch. 42 & 48-50 mm would probably have been better, and had a more balanced split in sales. Even when they were announced, I remember thinking how insignificant the 4mm size difference was.

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b.c having a watch half way up your arm is a good idea...

This is a 38mm on my 165mm wrist. You cannot tell me the 42 would look better/right

 

[AmpSkillz]

b.c having a watch half way up your arm is a good idea...

This is a 38mm on my 165mm wrist. You cannot tell me the 42 would look better/right

Look better... that's debatable, since you have a small wrist and the 38 isn't tiny on you, but i can certainly tell you that a watch face that is 4mm bigger would not be "half way up your arm" nor would it look silly on you at all.

 

[Glideslope]

Yawn....

This is a surprise? Revisions of -20% to -30% are optimistic.

It's an overpriced Gadget. Wake up Tim. Get Back to the Mac. Serious updates please. Your experiment is over. It went poorly.

 

[Tom G.]

I like the phrase in the article:

"Kuo expects total Apple Watch shipments to fall within the 15 million range for the 2015 fiscal year, lower than the consensus of 20-30 million units,"

He sounds like someone who guesses lower than the consensus and when he is right looks good. As has been pointed out in other posts, they're all guessing. No one but Apple knows for sure, and they are not telling.

Meanwhile my 7 May order is to be delivered in the 23 June to 8 July time frame, unless production picks up, or a sufficient number of people to who instant gratification takes to long people cancel their orders. I'm pulling for you quitters.

 

[Lictor]

Kuo also notes that over 80% of orders are for larger 42mm models, implying a male-dominated customer mix based on the assumption that 42mm and 38mm watches are mainly purchased by men and women respectively.

That's only a supposition... Women can also wear very big watches - and the 42mm is certainly not a very big watch. Casual or "fun" big watches seem to be quite popular with women here, just like very big rings or earloops can be.

 

[macduke]

It's not surprising that the article mentions most of the purchases being by men. Traditionally men are more likely to be early adopters of technology. That being said, I think the number of women buying Apple Watch will increase around the holidays and following years as they become accustomed to seeing other people with them and realize that there are some attractive designs for female users. Furthermore I believe Apple will expand upon their initial band selection, and perhaps even their case material selection further down the road, giving even more options to the feminine audience which typically does a better job at coordinating their clothing and accessories than men. My Milanese Loop will match everything I own whether it does or not! Although I might get a sport band at some point for working in the yard. My wife, on the other hand, doesn't like the current look and band options for the Apple Watch but mostly she is cheap and not willing to spend the money.

 

[Lictor]

The average person needs a computer and a phone.

The average person does not even need a computer for personal use... The average person only uses the computer for email and surfing, which can be done on the phone.

 

[iPadCary]

POS? Not in the least.

Right, right. Nothing Apple makes is a POS.
NO sarcasm, BTW, and it's pitiful that I have to actually make that known.
The latest MacBook notwithstanding.

Anyhoo, you know full well what I meant: not so much a technical POS,
but I mean overall in the contextual scheme of things.

 

[Lictor]

But, unlike the competitors, if the smartwatch remains a niche product, Apple will almost certainly drop the product line altogether as profits will not be significant.

Like they dropped the Apple TV or the Mac Mini ?

Until the iPad, every first gen Apple product was a huge failure. The Lisa, the precursor to the Mac, never sold. The first iPod was only bought by people working at Apple and their friends. The first iPhone was a flop...

Apple is not a company known to drop product lines just because it wasn't a huge success... Moreover, the Apple Watch *is* a success, it will sell above 10 million units with a profit margin that is much higher than any other Apple product.

 

[Shamansurf]

This sentence?

"Assuming that 42mm and 38mm watches are mainly purchased by men and women respectively, the Apple Watch has attracted mostly men."

This is a wrong headed assumption. Nurses and enthusiastic exercisers are female demographics that have demanded the watch, and their size choice will be based on their wrist size and use case, not their gender. Also, there are plenty of men who have small wrists.

The conclusion that the Apple watch is a guys watch is just wrong. In all the ways.

 

[macintologist]

Well I'm not buying one, and none of my friends or colleagues are buying one.

 

[menithings]

good, let it flop. focus on making a computer that is upgradeable and stop being so hostile to enthusiasts.

Also, bring back Windows 95! And floppy disks! And the show 'Friends'! And the goatee!

It's the 21st century. Integrated computers and mobile devices (including wearables) are here to stay. Try to catch up.

 

[iPadCary]

It's a life changer to me. It seriously is.
I also like to feel connected, and not miss something ....

Tell me: IN PRINCIPLE, what's the difference between looking at your palm every two seconds
or looking at your wrist every two seconds?
AND, I might add, not as often 'cause the battery's gonna run out.

Instead of missing notifications because my phone was in my pocket or on my desk -
I couldn't feel or hear the vibrations (I can't put the sound on, too distracting).

I don't know what to say to that ....
I guess until the Godsend that is Apple Watch, an iPhone was pretty much useless to you, huh.

Checking a phone every 15-30 minutes is such a different feeling than a watch.

Again, IN PRINCIPLE, I just don't see how.
Reading your entire comment, it reads like Apple Store copy, no offense.

Also, let me add this: maybe there was some grumblings before the iPod/iPhone/iPad were released,
but I don't recall after thier release seeing people say pretty much:
"Well, after actually having played with it for awhile, I can say iPod/iPhone/iPad is .... meh."
I am seeing these kinds of articles about Apple Watch.

Look, I'm an Apple guy since the 70s.
And even I know they just don't poop gold each & every friggin' time.

 

[cdm283813]

I'm waiting for a $100 price drop for gen 2 or 3. I haven't even seen the watch in person but I know a money grab when I see it. I don't want a $400 device that trys to replace my phone. It should compliment it and it should be easy to use and priced correctly.

 

[applebreed]

I'm only speaking for myself when I say this . . .

I was kind of on the fence about getting the Watch but reading about these long waits for the product to ship probably did more than anything to get me to pass. It created an impression in my head that goes kind of like "I'm not really sure why I need it, PLUS look how long I'd have to wait for it to arrive".

 

[DocMultimedia]

I haven't even seen one yet. Not a single person I know has received their watch. Demand is definitely going down because they don't even seem to exist.

If I ever get my watch maybe I'll be able to show it to someone....

 

[chrismac2]

It's the same as the point of people coming online to make sure the world knows how much you do want the watch. People like giving their opinion. Just because you want/have one doesn't make your opinion of the watch any more valid than anyone else's. I mean, are you saying you'd prefer to enter an echo chamber forum of people circle yanking about a product you like?

Well, I can only speak for myself. My only posts about the apple watch on this forum have been information/technical in nature, answering questions, etc., or a response to haters telling us why they don't want a watch.

It's a free country--I'm not saying you can't write "I hate the apple watch" posts--but this is an Apple Watch forum after all, in my mind, for Apple Watch enthusiasts to share tips, tricks, bugs, pre-order wait anxiety, etc.

Coming here to say "The Apple Watch is lame" is like me registering on a Windows Phone site, just to piss people off by saying "Windows Phones suck! I'm never buying one!"