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Apple Watch Demand Flattening as 42mm Models Estimated to Represent Over 80% of Orders
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At the end of the day, Apple still sold more in 1 month by far than Google shipped in all of 2014 across all the models they have out. So still a victory
A victory?
I don't understand your comment. First - Google doesn't make watches - other manufacturers do. But if you're referring to devices that run Android Wear, then your point is still a bit silly. Why? Because they really aren't competing.
If you have an iPhone - you can buy an Apple Watch (or 3rd party watch that is cross-platform like a Pebble or FitBit). If you have an Android phone 0 you can buy an Android Wear device (or one that is cross-platform)
At no time is an iPhone user able to use Android Wear (for now) and at no time can an Android phone user use an Apple Watch (naturally you could - but your functionality would be next to nothing).
But in competition or not - I fail how something like this is "victorious" or why it should even matter. Just about all of these "smart" watches do the same things. You can argue form or a feature here and there - but overall, right now, there's great parity.
Wearables is till quite in its infancy.
Lastly - how many people do you know that buy a phone based on what watch they can use. More than likely - it's the other way around. Someone buys the phone they want and then seek out compatible peripherals.
I have two smart watches right now. I like them for what they do. But I wouldn't call any smart watch currently on the market TRULY "Smart" - they just haven't gotten there... yet
I'm not a college kid, I'm 25. I said former professor. My demographic, young urban professionals should be the target demographic.
I still don't understand these numbers. Apple was selling barely 15 million iPhones a year in 2009. I highly doubt Apple is expecting that many sales on a gen 1 device in a new product category.
Why are people taking analyst's numbers as anything besides barely more than an educated guess?
how are people translating "demand flattening" to flop?
I'm shocked it is 80% 42mm. I thought it would be closer to 70/30.
I'm shocked it is 80% 42mm. I thought it would be closer to 70/30.
Stop complaining if you ordered a gray/black watch and haven't got it, we know already, what did you expect?! This is the master at logistics at work... they weren't quite sure how the watch would go so they didn't pile up stock they can now adjust manufacturing appropriately... why do you think Apple is the most successful company ever the past few years.
If Samsung or LG had the same sales success for their wearables as the Apple Watch, it wouldn't just be a victory, every board member and executive would be fist pumping and throwing massive parties. So yes, it is a victory. Remember the original iPhone had less sales it's first year than the Apple Watch.
It's unheard of for demand to decrease after 40 days of it going on sale
I equate this to something like the PS4. Initial pre-orders were huge on the first few days. Of course, because people wanted to ensure they got one early. The next 60 days? I bet orders trickled in and were very slow. It wasn't until the PS4 was actually in the stores that sales picked back up again.
Well, while there may be some people who want to wear an iphone-sized device on their arm, there are still going to be plenty of people who don't. I have a 38mm AW and I promise you it's more than big enough for the type of interactions worth doing on a wrist.
IMO wearables are the outcome of people wanting both something small and something large to meet their needs. I don't see them growing in size, I see them staying the same or shrinking, while gaining functionality that's suited specifically for a tiny screen. I think we're a long way from the "giant wrist cuff" scenario.
Dude, back off on the caffeine. I never said "everyone." I said "those." If you are not one of "those," then this does not apply to you and you can just move along.
BTW - Have you done any meditation or relaxation exercises? Maybe a nice herbal tea and a massage would do the trick.
Another BTW -- I am totally loving my "unnecessary, expensive POS."
You realize I wasn't arguing about succubus rather one being victorious OVER the other. I find the comment and the need to put one against the other silly
I think 40+ will be the biggest target demographic based on the price.
College kids in general are poor. 20-something professionals are also penny pinchers - they are paid less starting their careers, have student loans, spending money at bars, but also trying to save up for a house.
30-somethings who are still single can afford watches. 30-somethings that have kids don't have money either.
Once you get in your 40s, there is more disposable income.
I'm not surprised. Right now, people are into "bigger is better" with phones so it makes sense to me.
The 38mm SGS is a perfect size for me. Anything larger would dominate my arm and I don't want that. I probably could sell it and make a few $$ but I'm enjoying it too much. I was told that a call I made on it yesterday was clearer than on my iPhone!
It is the first watch I've worn in decades (not counting the Fitbit I wore for a few months before it was recalled) and can't see not wearing it every day.
Yeah I'm actually surprised more people got the bigger version. I got the 38mm and love how sleek and small it looks, rather than the iPhone on wrist look a 42mm would have on me. I say the smaller the better, I wish the watch was just a band that showed notifications and a line of text.
The only way to see this as a sales flop is to compare the sales numbers against an imaginary and unrealistic projection, based on, well, nothing. It's an odd feature of the market analysis business that a huge success can be characterized as a failure by simply comparing a good reality with Utopian projections.
Usain Bolt holds the record for running 100 meters in 9.58 seconds. He could run a race tomorrow, beat everyone else by a full second, and someone would call him a failure because he ran 9.64 seconds in that race. Even better, you could predict how he's primed to go, and say this time he's sure to run it in 9.5 seconds, flat. He runs the race, beats everyone else by a full second and breaks the world record, running it in 9.53 seconds. But wait, wasn't he predicted to run a 9.50? Sorry, Usain, you're a failure. You might as well hang up your shoes, now, 'cause you're a loser.
Really?
All the criticism and claims of the
Watch being some kind of flop are based on comparing (estimated) sales against various prognostications pulled out of somebody's, um, air.
Kuo's own first week pre-order sales estimates were north of 2 million watches. Other first day estimates were north of 1 million.
For perspective, 1st generation iPhone 1st 30 hours sales were 270,000, and first weekend sales, 1 million. iPhone 4 was the first model to get out of the 1M first weekend range, and 4S the first to get into more stratospheric numbers at 4 million.
Kuo's own 1st year estimate of 15 million Watches dwarfs Android-wear, with 720,000 sold for all makes and models in 2014. With estimates of several million Watches sold already, it's the category's sales leader, even while struggling through a supply issue. Next, wait to see the first year numbers. If Watch sells 14 million, that's stratospheric dominance over other makers. Will Kuo call it that a disappointment, because it falls short of his prediction of 15 million, which is based on... nothing? Should it mean anything to anyone if he does?
Usain Bolt holds the record for running 100 meters in 9.58 seconds. He could run a race tomorrow, beat everyone else by a full second, and someone would call him a failure because he ran 9.64 seconds in that race. Even better, you could predict how he's primed to go, and say this time he's sure to run it in 9.5 seconds, flat. He runs the race, beats everyone else by a full second and breaks the world record, running it in 9.53 seconds. But wait, wasn't he predicted to run a 9.50? Sorry, Usain, you're a failure. You might as well hang up your shoes, now, 'cause you're a loser.
Really?
All the criticism and claims of the
Watch being some kind of flop are based on comparing (estimated) sales against various prognostications pulled out of somebody's, um, air.Kuo's own first week pre-order sales estimates were north of 2 million watches. Other first day estimates were north of 1 million.
For perspective, 1st generation iPhone 1st 30 hours sales were 270,000, and first weekend sales, 1 million. iPhone 4 was the first model to get out of the 1M first weekend range, and 4S the first to get into more stratospheric numbers at 4 million.
Kuo's own 1st year estimate of 15 million
Watches dwarfs Android-wear, with 720,000 sold for all makes and models in 2014. With estimates of several million Watches sold already, it's the category's sales leader, even while struggling through a supply issue. Next, wait to see the first year numbers. If Watch sells 14 million, that's stratospheric dominance over other makers. Will Kuo call it that a disappointment, because it falls short of his prediction of 15 million, which is based on... nothing? Should it mean anything to anyone if he does?
If he is saying the digital crown is inconsistent, I agree. However, not in the slightest degree that it is useless.
The digital crown makes navigating the watch a dream and a well welcomed component. It's very well constructed and enjoyable to turn. I'm happy they went for it.
Otherwise, only complaint is that there are some major inconsistencies with it that really break the flow of using the Watch.
The digital crown makes navigating the watch a dream and a well welcomed component. It's very well constructed and enjoyable to turn. I'm happy they went for it.
Otherwise, only complaint is that there are some major inconsistencies with it that really break the flow of using the Watch.
running out of time
I think a lot of you are missing the point on this. Have any of you ever had to wait 3 months to get an Apple product once ordered? I ordered my watch April 20th my shipping time "July". I am tempted to cancel my order each day as I see no progress and reports that my model in particular is not being shipped to anyone. I can convince myself that I really don't need an Apple watch anytime soon as in maybe next year.
I think a lot of you are missing the point on this. Have any of you ever had to wait 3 months to get an Apple product once ordered? I ordered my watch April 20th my shipping time "July". I am tempted to cancel my order each day as I see no progress and reports that my model in particular is not being shipped to anyone. I can convince myself that I really don't need an Apple watch anytime soon as in maybe next year.
But what major product has ever taken off by having the 40+ demographic adopt it first? You need the young people to expand. If prices don't go down and if it doesn't distinguish itself from the iPhone more, I don't think there's that much room for growth.
The biggest issue I've heard over and over again is, "So what does it do that your phone doesn't" and I always struggle and say "uhhh well you can have notifications on your wrist and there's a heart rate sensor" and then people look at me with a puzzled look.
The one where Lenovo is about to pass them, and ASUS as well.
So you have HP at the top growing at 3.5% and eclipsing Apple by a huge amount, Dell at No.2, which is still ahead of them in total marketshare by 10% (albeit decreasing slightly at (-3.8%), Lenovo at No.3 by next quarter, and ASUS a year or two away (they will carve out the low-end from 'Other' category that lists 2.7m shipments) from the No.4 spot. These 'Others' are not going to Apple. Apple is stealing the high-end from Dell/HP. Many devs I know are just walking away from the ridiculous Apple pricing, and Win10 is shaping up to be very solid.
That will leave Apple in the No. 5 spot by 2017.
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Your opinion.
It's a life changer to me. It seriously is. And worth all the money.
I have an Engineering job I need to be focused at. The more focus I can give the project the quicker I can get it done, and the better it is. I also like to feel connected, and not miss something like 'Honey - my car won't start' or 'dinner will be ready at 5:30'.
Instead of missing notifications because my phone was in my pocket or on my desk - I couldn't feel or hear the vibrations (I can't put the sound on, too distracting).
Now, I know when something comes in, and know I'm 'connected'. The wrist pulse is so much nicer. Plus, I'll look at the time once in a while (I don't want to dig out my phone - not meant for checking the time!!!). And when glancing at the time, it's so easy to see a red dot for any missed or dismissed notifications.
It really keeps me 'in the zone', and has improved my work life so much now. Would really help if I were a college student studying. I'd still 'feel connected' but could keep up on my work.
Checking a phone every 15-30 minutes is such a different feeling than a watch.
That's a service, not a product . They also didn't really update Ping ... It didn't get improved, it got AXED .
iPad, iPod, iPhone, iMac, Mac Mini, MacBook Pro, Mac Pro all improved with time .
Apple Watch will follow suit .