Apple Watch U.S. Online Sales Estimated at 3 Million Through 3 Months

[ToroidalZeus]

2 harsh realities need to set in for the people of this forum.

1. People just aren't that into wearables (at least in their current state).
2. Apple just didn't do their best on this one.

Sad truth is Apple hasn't done their best since SJ died.

Apple Maps Fiasco - Scott Forstall Scapegoat
Trash Can Mac Pro - Weak and overpriced
iOS 8 - Bugs
Beats Purchase - Hella Overpriced
New MacBook - Only 1 port and awful keyboard
Apple Watch - Confusing UI and overpriced
Apple Radio / Pandora Clone - Poor UI and music selection (also now dead with AM)
Apple Music - Confusing UI

iPhone 6S - 16GB Storage and 1GB VRAM?

It's death by 1000 cuts. Without SJ I don't think Apple can change the world anymore.

 

[AppleScruff1]

Before the product ever went on sale Tim Cook said they weren't going to release figures on it and would be reporting it in the "other" category along with TV, Beats and other accessories. If Apple was expecting iPhone or even iPad like sales for this product from day one there's no way they'd get away with reporting it as "other".

Or they just played it safe in case it didn't sell tens of millions.

 

[ToroidalZeus]

I'm not a huge Imagine Dragons fan either. My point still stands. You don't throw a fancy cocktail party in San Francisco with live music for a product that is a flop.

That's exactly how you know it's a flop. When the CEO cares more about throwing a party than developing a good product you got an issue with leadership.

 

[Rogifan]

They used the word phenomenal..... Must be really special ...

You of all people should know it's in thier DNA... This comes to mind to illustrate my point...

Point is if the Watch isn't selling all the adjectives in the world won't change that. So if Apple is misleading employees by telling them demand is greater than expected and continuing to grow, they can only get away with it for so long before reality kicks in.

 

[Rogifan]

And what are people such as yourself doing? Just the opposite of the naysayers.

I've not once said the product is a huge success. I have no idea. I don't even own one. All I'm saying is we don't have any credible evidence to suggest it's a flop.

 

[gsmornot]

I was thinking about this further and did a quick search. Other watch brands selling watches in this price range have done no better and for the most part less in the number of annual unit sales than Apple has with their watches. I don't think after looking the sales numbers the estimated 3 million sold is bad at all. I see many people saying they have not seen very many out in the wild and that includes me but then again I don't see many high end analog watches either. I see more empty wrists or wrists with something other than a watch. When I do see a watch its not often one that was several hundred to several thousand dollars as far as I can tell. I do see them, just not in the numbers people assume they should see Apple Watch to consider is successful. All in all my point is for an expensive watch they are not doing too bad.

 

[dec.]

That's exactly how you know it's a flop. When the CEO cares more about throwing a party then developing a good product you got an issue with leadership.

Oh yes, that's right. He's Apple's in-house party planner.

 

[Joe Rossignol]

No they were just guaranteed an exclusive, it clearly states that about 3 lines into the article!

I reached out to Slice Intelligence to learn about their methodology since many were wondering about it after last week's article. Only after that did Slice Intelligence offer to share their latest data in a follow-up exchange, which I of course am more than happy to share with our readers. I fully understand if you don't believe that sequence of events, but I am being honest. That's my last comment on it.

 

[ToroidalZeus]

Oh yes, that's right. He's Apple's in-house party planner.

Yep, with all the musical guests (U2, drake, the wknd, etc) during the Apple Keynotes it sure does seem that way.

 

[I7guy]

2 harsh realities need to set in for the people of this forum.

1. People just aren't that into wearables (at least in their current state).
2. Apple just didn't do their best on this one.

Some more harsh realities:

The actual number sold could be much, much higher given only Apple knows how many have been sold. And, the internal sales targets are not known. Seems like most people are benchmarking Apple watch sales against the iPhone.

 

[kdarling]

1,875 Apple Watch Editions!

When did Apple last sell so few of a product? I think this may be a record. Did the Newton ever have such low numbers

In its first six months, the Apple II only sold about 600 units. (High price was one problem. Lack of stores, another.)

And didn't android wear sell only 720,000 in the whole of 2014? So several different manufacturers, and 4 times the amount of time and Apple still sold more than 3 X the amount of watches.

Android Wear didn't even go on sale until mid 2014, and the most popular models (the round Moto 360 and LG-R) didn't become available until September, and in short supply at that.

Why is Mac Rumors so obsessed with Slice Ingelligence? When in the past have they ever predicted sales of other Apple products and done so accurately? And since their data doesn't include all launch countries how accurate can it be anyway?

Rog, I love ya, but where were all you data doubters back when Slice reported huge sales the first week? Or when far, far worse sources claimed people with iPhones web surf or buy more than other OS users? Hypocrites, the lot of you.

As for Slice, I'd say their source is unprecedentedly accurate and detailed for US online sales. Now that store sales are here, though, it loses much of its value. And of course it's meaningless outside the US.

Here is an excellent analysis of the Slice Intelligence Apple Watch "sales report" that is well worth a read by anyone interested in hearing the full story beyond the spin.

Actually, if you read past all the usual AI handwaving, that article ends up using the Slice data to say that Apple Watch sales are going relatively great for this category.

 

[Rogifan]

Or they just played it safe in case it didn't sell tens of millions.

Exactly. Which just proves my point that all these Wall Street analysts predictions are nonsense. This isn't a mature product category. They have nothing to base their predictions on. And knowing that Apple would be burying Watch results in this "other" bucket should've given them a clue not to go crazy with sales predictions. Unless you have short sellers who intentionally threw out crazy predictions so they could later revise them down.

 

[dec.]

Yep, with all the musical guests (U2, drake, the wknd, etc) during the Apple Keynotes it sure does seem that way.

Maybe he's just trying a bit too hard to be like Steve Jobs? (U2, Dr. Dre...)

 

[Apple_Robert]

This whole wearables FAD/Gimmick needs to die.

I think the following song is very apropos to your sentiment. Enjoy.

 

[Marshall73]

This is just free press for these guys, their figures will be as accurate as all other analysts, in other words complete bunkum.

 

[Popeye206]

To me, 3m units in the US in 3 months seems pretty good to me. I wouldn't expect a 1.0 product to be a run away success. We won't know until the earnings report.

 

[aduteau]

Significantly fewer sales than predicted by financial analysts last year, when the product was revealed..

They estimated 10, 15 and even 30 million units sold in 2015.
http://fortune.com/2014/09/09/the-apple-watch-what-the-analysts-are-saying/

This story reports only an estimate, and only US sales, but I don't see global sales for 2015 hitting 10 million, let alone higher.

Seriously ... WallStreet People who "Predict" Apple product sales have NO CLUE about the product at all !
All those predictions are PR to make shares go up for clients they have, pure speculation !

Of course the watch is NEVER going to match the iPhones in sales ! but some people here were thinking this to be the next big thing to challenge the iPhone. The iPhone is always going to be a best seller because people normaly buy them at the end of every 2 years of mobile contract. If it wasnt for contracts that last 2 years ... and that the price of the iPhone is included in the data plan per month ... then the iPhones sales would be doing like the iPad is doing right now in sales !!! No contract ... Less sales !

Heck even a cheap normal watch at 50$ is hard to convince people to buy and wear ... Watches are fashion items plain and simple ... fashion is not the same for everyone and is NOT something everyone needs.

A phone on the other hand IS something people need

Now those that mean its a failure ? NO
This is the hardness project to convince people to buy that Apple has ever made !!! It has no contract .... its a blend between fashion and electronic ... and you wear it all the time ...
All those points are all new to people and Apple is the one showing the way for this.

Down the road the watch will have more sensors for medical use, will probably have more designs to follow fashion trends and it will STILL sell much less then the iPhone or iPad, but wont be doomed because it sells less !

Dont let WallStreet people with doom headlines tell you otherwise they only see numbers and dont get the bigger picture of different products ... just last week they were calling for Apple to discontinue the MAC line because of low market share .... All they care are numbers !

 

[Chupa Chupa]

Sad truth is Apple hasn't done their best since SJ died.

Apple Maps Fiasco - Scott Forstall Scapegoat
Trash Can Mac Pro - Weak and overpriced
iOS 8 - Bugs
Beats Purchase - Hella Overpriced
New MacBook - Only 1 port and awful keyboard
Apple Watch - Confusing UI and overpriced
Apple Radio / Pandora Clone - Poor UI and music selection (also now dead with AM)
Apple Music - Confusing UI

iPhone 6S - 16GB Storage and 1GB VRAM?

It's death by 1000 cuts. Without SJ I don't think Apple can change the world anymore.

In theory I tend to agree but:

1. Mac Pro was conceived while SJ was living. It is what it is, but I wouldn't classify it as a weak powered machine.

2. iOS 8 bugs -- not really fair. What OS doesn't have bugs. I forget which update to Mac OS X it was but if a FW hard drive was plugged in it would erase it! This was when SJ was CEO. Even SJ never oversaw the release of a perfect 1.0 version of an OS.

3. Beats - remains to be seen. Yes, it was expensive. But Apple's streaming music offering, which is where the market is headed was weak. So I applaud Cook for being realistic that Apple needed the assistance of Iovine and Dre in this instance. We'll see how it works out in the coming year. Personally I won't pay for streaming music, but I'm an aging Gen X who fondly remembers combing though the CD racks at Tower Records. I enjoy owning hard copies, but I'm in the clear minority.

4. iPhone 6S - deets are still under wraps, and yes 16GB is chintzy in 2015. But just today the WSJ reports that Apple, despite only owning a 20% marketshare in smartphones retains 92% of the profits for the industry. So clearly mainline consumers are unfazed and Apple's strategy of "forcing" the upgrade still works. So no policy fail there.

5. New MacBook - The original MBA was a POS too with a snail processor and also just one or two USB ports. Too soon to tell for this one.

Where I think we agree SJ is missed is the vetting gap he left. Clearly Apple's new UI's from iTunes to AW are not as polished or intuitive as SJ would have demanded. Ive was great because he had SJ to give critique him and buff out the rough edges or tell him to start over. I get the sense that Cook doesn't have this ability or influence or just believes the Apple logo is like Midas's Touch. The AW in concept is a great idea. But Apple's execution has been confusing.

 

[LordQ]

If only it was 100% iPhone-free and I could swim with it... Maybe next year.

 

[QquegChristian]

I'm sure Slice has an absolutely fantastic user base of the wealthy and elite that the Edition is targeting. If there's one thing powerful executives and celebrities are totally cool with, it is allowing a third party company to data mine their personal emails.

Ignoring all that praising of their algorithms, I'd argue that early adopters of ANY income are not the type of people to opt-in to a company that doesn't end with "oogle" and allow them to profit off of our personal data.

Apple is pushing privacy extremely hard right now... Surely they believe that it is something their core base, especially early adopters, care a lot about.

Not saying the main figures are off, but I'd bet they are significantly off on the Edition models. By significant, I mean they are likely triple that number. Beyond the data mining, I imagine many of those purchases happened over the phone with specialized support.

If Slice wanted to be useful, they'd use their evils to track return confirmations because that is so much more interesting and can give an exact percentage of their users' returns after purchase, which would scale up more evenly than their admittedly incomplete data.

I only suggest that because, though I friggin' love my Apple Watch, I've read SO many people say they returned theirs, or switched to a different size or casing, or ordered 1 of each to try them all on. The return/exchange rate has got to be stupid high.

 

[ninethirty]

I think you misunderstand my motivations. I don't want Apple to be unsuccessful. I just think the watch was a bad idea, and worse, poorly executed. If Apple felt the same, but launched it anyway, that's also questionable, and I'd still call it a flop.

Last October Tim Cook said Apple would not be providing data on the Watch and they would be reporting it in the "other" category along with TV, Beats and other accessories. That was also when Apple said they would no longer be reporting retail as a stand alone business. This is what Tim Cook said at the time:



Now if one doesn't buy Tim Cook's comments, the only other reason for hiding the Watch within an "other" category would be because Apple doesn't expect it to be an iPhone/iPad like blockbuster from day one. But if that's the case it's kind of hard to call it a flop if Apple's expectations for it were modest from the get go.

That's more like a harsh possibility. But if Apple comes out and says they sold 10 million of them, then I'll be impressed.

Some more harsh realities:

The actual number sold could be much, much higher given only Apple knows how many have been sold. And, the internal sales targets are not known. Seems like most people are benchmarking Apple watch sales against the iPhone.

 

[62tele]

Good article.

1,875 Apple Watch Editions!

When did Apple last sell so few of a product? I think this may be a record. Did the Newton ever have such low numbers?

Thank goodness for Slice. They are doing what Steve Jobs used to do at each keynote: tell us how many products Apple have sold.

Jonny Ive has said that he is "very tired." The reason for this is because he tried his hardest to design a thin, attractive watch and failed. The trauma of a thick watch is just too much to bear. He knows his heart is not in wearables. Neither is the general public's.

Slice methodology is pretty flimsy. The data only includes online sales tracked through the firm's app, email-scanning and partner services and mostly comes from big box stores and Amazon. Almost all sales estimates for more established products are routinely off by a good bit so it's doubtful that Slice's data is worth a flying crap.
Regardless, Apple Watch is destroying the competition for true smartwatches (vs fitness only bands).
This is a new products category. It's not iPod sales were that robust shortly after it was introduced.
I love how all the Apple and Watch haters on this site will jump at anything to validate their point of view of Apple's impending doom or failure in the wearable market.
FWIW, I love my watch. It proves it's worth every day and there is not a day that goes by when someone doesn't inquire about it.

 

[iConnected]

For the naysayers, here are some other famous Apple "flops".

Sales in the first quarter of availability:

iPod - 125,000 units.
iPhone - 1.1 million units.
iPad - 3.3 million units.
Mac - 50,000 units.

 

[Gsoz]

I'm so sick of this Slice firm.

When i read them mentioned I thought "Oh come on, not this **** again", but here we are :/

 

[I7guy]

I think you misunderstand my motivations. I don't want Apple to be unsuccessful. I just think the watch was a bad idea, and worse, poorly executed. If Apple felt the same, but launched it anyway, that's also questionable, and I'd still call it a flop.



That's more like a harsh possibility. But if Apple comes out and says they sold 10 million of them, then I'll be impressed.

Apple is not going to say how many it sold. Tim Cook has already stated they are not breaking out the numbers. So we here in forum land can sit and play armchair ceo, but the reality is, Apple watch outsold android wear based on a years worth of sales and we only know the minimum amount of sales, not the actual amount, based on data reported by some tracking app.