Do or die year for Windows Phone
A NYTimes article details some of the challenges and sees 2012 as a crucial year for Microsoft's Windows Phone strategy.
It's been almost five years since the first iPhone was released. And Microsoft still hasn't successfully answered (pun intended.) It's also been more than ten years since the first iPod was released. Microsoft responded with Zune, it failed, and Microsoft quit. Then there was the Danger acquisition and the KIN failure. Now Microsoft is desperately attempting to pay retail sales people for each Windows Phone handset sold. And the media is starting to smell blood in the water around Windows Phone. There's a well-established track record of failures outside Microsoft's Windows + Office core competency, and Windows Phone shows no signs of being a breakout success.
Ballmer, in his final CES keynote, should avoid pre-announcing vaporware like Windows 8. He'll need to hype Windows 7 handsets because they desperately need attention from developers, retailers, the tech media, and consumers. I'll bet a dollar Ballmer will be waving at least one Nokia Windows Phone on stage. He might even point to a rack of WP7 phones the way he pointed to a rack of "Windows Slates" in 2010. Remember that? That moment may have been a deciding factor in the CEA giving Ballmer and Microsoft the hook. The CES keynote is supposed to be about new, innovative, interesting products in the consumer electronics space. Not an infomercial for devices with a legacy OS jammed into new form factors.
And Ballmer will also need to talk about something that *is* actually selling well now. That limits his range of topics to Windows 7, Office 2010 for Windows, Office 2011 for Mac, and Xbox 360 with Kinect. But of course, since CES is about consumer electronics and not about legacy office productivity software, he'll talk about Kinect. No, Xbox isn't exactly new. But Xbox profitability is a new thing for Microsoft.
The original Xbox was sold from 2001 to 2005 and it lost Microsoft $4 billion over that period. Its successor, the Xbox 360, suffered the infamous Red Ring of Death heat-related hardware failures, and Microsoft logged a one-time $1 billion charge in 2007 to replace the bricked units. The recent success of Kinect is just starting to help Microsoft recoup all the billions it lost. Yay.
So maybe we'll see one more Monkey Boy act. One last embarrassing spasm of arm-waving and phony enthusiasm. Ballmer might spend 10 minutes or so playing Xbox 360 games with Kinect. And if he does, that's what he will be remembered for after all those years of forgettable CES keynotes, with and without Bill Gates.
Oh, and as for Windows Phone "doing or dying" this year? Well, Microsoft has shown us that there are different levels of doing and dying. Microsoft did Zune. Its precise time of death isn't certain, but Microsoft went through the motions of promoting it as though it were still alive for years after its actual death on the market. Maybe they'll do the same for Windows Phone.