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Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread
- Thread starter yaxomoxay
- Start date
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Yes, I think he did the best thing.
In bocca al lupo ragazzi. Sono sicuro che ce la farete e ritornerete piu' forti di prima!
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Stunning picture. Oh Lord, how many times I walked in front of the Duomo!
I was there a few years ago, and I remember a lot more people milling about. This looks more like what you'd see just as the sun came up, before the crowds formed.
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If you need a random fact of the day:
In 1665, when bubonic plague temporarily shut down the University of Cambridge, Isaac Newton returned to his home town for nearly two years. During this period, he did much scientific work in motion, optics, and mathematics. His three laws of motion became the foundation of modern dynamics, and from that he discovered the law of universal gravitation.
The moral is that if any of you are stuck at home or elsewhere, try to use the time for something productive, not just binge watching TV (or spending all day posting at MacRumors).
People in the US has no clue what 1% death rate means. If only 10% of the US catch the virus in 2020, that equates to 33 million people. If only 1% of the 33 million die from it, that equates to 330,000 deaths in the US. The flu causes 60,000 deaths. Now lets bump up the infection rate to 40%. That equates to 132 million people. Using the same 1% death rate, that equates to 1.32 million deaths. Thats more deaths than cancer, heart disease and flu combined. At 40% infection rate, it would become the number 1 cause of death in the US. Think about that the next time you think 1% is just a small number. Now lets use the same 40% rate for the rest of the world. There are 8 billion people. 40% infection would equate to 3.2 billion. 1% death rate would equal 32 million deaths.
According to the video posted the other day, everyone concerned is actually good in terms of stemming transmission.
Follow up:
Did NOT throw up at work because of anxiety 😂 Feeling pretty damn proud of myself for that...since I came close 😂
My hospital is barring our volunteers until mid-April (that date will be re-evaluated as it gets closer). Most colleges in my area have extended their spring breaks and announced when break is over...they will be doing classes strictly online.
I have to brag about US hospitals a bit: SOMETHING is being done right. Despite all the cases in the US...it does not sound like any of them are doctors or nurses. (I’m saying that because I feel pretty certain that we would all be hearing about it if there was). As long as we can keep that going and keep ourselves healthy...for the public...we got you. If there are any doctors or nurses here reading this...I’m sure you’re saying it with me. We got you. Let’s kick this thing’s ass!!!
Yeah, we are all either high risk and/or have friends and loved ones who are high risk. I have a mother-in-law in an elderly facility. My brother's father-in-law are in an elderly facility. My parents are both past 78 years old.
And I am a huge Tom Hanks fan.
It’s a bit polarizing really, I’ve had to take measures moving forward by Canceling a fully paid cruise to Turks and Caicos ‘s I had in late April. A timeshare in Fort Myers I have was alerted had multiple occupants cancel their vacations, even my local gym is making adjustments where the locker rooms may not be allowed to be used, etc.
I realize sacrifices Have to be made, but what shocked me the most, is how fast everything is advancing in terms of preparations being taken ‘now’ versus tomorrow. In the same respect, I think swift movement is necessary to tackle this the best we can, and create distance from large audiences _until_ their is a grasp on this.
I realize sacrifices Have to be made, but what shocked me the most, is how fast everything is advancing in terms of preparations being taken ‘now’ versus tomorrow. In the same respect, I think swift movement is necessary to tackle this the best we can, and create distance from large audiences _until_ their is a grasp on this.
My guess here is that full containment is not really on the table anymore. This is all about slowing the spread. If everybody gets sick all at once, mortality rates will be through the roof. It seems our best chance is to slow it down so as to not overwhelm the health care providers.
g.
This is what I asked earlier, what happens if a national quarantine is declared for 14 days, and new cases drop off. What now, business as usual? They’ve talked about carriers, who would still be out there.
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I disagree, they want to reduce rates of infection so as not to overwhelm medical facilities, think about stadiums full of people mingling, how would you manage that? Then when a high priced player is infected, this has a substantial cost associated with it, this is a threat to the team. My understanding is the cancellation of the NBA is “for now” until circumstances change for the better.
This is what I asked earlier, what happens if a national quarantine is declared for 14 days, and new cases drop off. What now, business as usual? They’ve talked about carriers, who would still be out there.
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Imo, it’s better to be proactive, even to overact, versus minimize this like our President has been doing all the way up to less than a week ago.
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It took 3 weeks for Wuhan to see a drop-off in cases, even with a full on lock down/quarantine because of infection spreads within families (inevitable).
Some of the timeline of cases could also be attributable to backlogs in testing, but the USA doesn't seem to be getting on top of that, despite the huge heads up they've had over China...
14 days would not be overly useful in reducing cases, in all likelihood.
It seems to have worked at least on a much smaller scale. Codogno, where everything started in Italy and it had been quarantined since the start, reported zero new infection yesterday https://www.ilgiorno.it/lodi/cronaca/coronavirus-zero-contagi-1.5063903. But the quarantine was still somewhat in effect since Italy announced a countrywide lockdown which would be valid for the next 2-3 weeks.
I did agree that the Western countries only started taking major actions (in the form of massive testing and smaller containment such as the one currently in effect in New Rochelle, New York) after they'd seen what happened in Italy, an EU member. Most of Western countries seemed to be rather disconnected with what was happening in China due to distrust over data being relayed by China and other political issues.
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Wuhan, China and Lombardy, Italy - yup. Fairly accurate assessment.
People who talk of higher number of cases of flu etc. also seem to ignore that flu season is measured over a 18+ week period (it's actually a 29 week period but there doesn't tend to be high incidence at the start and end). Hospital admissions in the US with confirmed influenza diagnoses peaked this year at 6.3 per 100,000 population in the week ending 8th Feb per CDC data. That's 20600 per week.
Take that 20,600 per week and consider that many complications of the flu might require hospitalisation without being immediately life threatening. Worsening of asthma or diabetes, or an ear infection. They won't require the same type or level of treatment. Indeed, that week saw 415 deaths attributed to influenza - 2%.
Are 38 cumulative deaths from COVID-19 worrisome? No. Would a continued 20% growth trajectory mean the poop hits the fan tomorrow? No - it's still under 5000 cases by next week. But it starts to get worrying if that trajectory continues. If flu caused all 20,600 people per week who were hospitalised to require care in ICU, a hell of a lot more would die. If coronavirus isn't slowed to way below those levels, a lot more people will die.
Also - influenza hasn't gone away. People still develop cancer. Road accidents. It's not like medical staff anywhere in the world were sitting around doing nothing when coronavirus popped up.
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It's been more than 14 days since Codogno was put on lockdown
so - it probably does take longer than 14 days to stop the spread.
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Its the revenge of mother nature of gruesome and horrible mistreatment of animals in China.
You will be shocked whats on youtube.
You will be shocked whats on youtube.
Yes, it will definitely take more than 14 days for a larger scale, especially with people not following the rules of quarantine, and even then it won't stop the spread. But 14 days could be sufficient enough to significantly slow down the infection in much smaller places.It's been more than 14 days since Codogno was put on lockdown
Then again, the Italian government started closure of schools and universities in Lombardy around the same time Codogno was quarantined, and they kept extending the deadlines because people treated the quarantine in most zones as a holiday instead of a real quarantine. They still went out in packs to bars, parks, restaurants etc. Unfortunately, human compliance was something that's very hard to get.
I also read that normally, most ICUs in many countries seem to run at about 70-95% capacities (before the addition of COVID-19 cases). Canada has around 3200 ICU beds and about 5000 ventilators available. The UK has 4100 ICU beds and high dependency beds (a step below ICU). The Netherlands has 1000 ICU beds. That's not a lot of leeway to cater to new influx of patients considering that based on Italy stats, 10% of positive COVID-19 cases (at this point about 1000+ cases) requires intensive care.
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