Coronavirus (Covid-19) informational thread

[iOS Geek]

Not the same source but essentially the same message... corroboration, i guess:

Coronavirus: 'Stop saying it's a bad flu' - Doctor fighting Italy outbreak shares dramatic account

The doctor says "the message of the danger of what is happening" is not reaching people in a Facebook post shared 29,000 times.

news.sky.com

I work in a hospital that treated a coronavirus patient last week. Definitely true to say this is NOT just a "bad flu". The thing that bugs me most...is when people keep saying "you know we have a flu going around right? And it's killing more people?"
Yes...there are more flu cases right now and more deaths from the flu. But...percentage wise...coronavirus is more dangerous. Especially because there is no vaccine. The US isn't prepared for a widespread outbreak. The hospital I work in is one of the biggest in the area. If coronavirus goes widespread here, we will be overwhelmed. Fast. We don't have the space. The population within a 15 mile radius of my hospital is over 2 million. There isn't a single hospital in the area that would be able to handle a widespread outbreak.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I work in a hospital that treated a coronavirus patient last week. Definitely true when you say this is NOT a "bad flu". The thing that bugs me most...is when people keep saying "you know we have a flu going around right? And it's killing more people?"
Yes...there are more flu cases right now and more deaths from the flu. But...percentage wise...coronavirus is more dangerous. Especially because there is no vaccine. The US isn't prepared for a widespread outbreak. The hospital I work in is one of the biggest in the area. If coronavirus goes widespread here, we will be overwhelmed. Fast. We don't have the space. The population within a 15 mile radius of my hospital is over 2 million. There isn't a single hospital in the area that would be able to handle a widespread outbreak.

It seems that the US is where Europe was about a month ago. Hopefully this will mean that the season will be over before an outbreak, but at this point this is just hoping for the best. I don't think that there is a single nation that is prepared for something like this on a large scale.
Can we even prepare for it other than reducing the impact a little bit?

 

[iOS Geek]

It seems that the US is where Europe was about a month ago. Hopefully this will mean that the season will be over before an outbreak, but at this point this is just hoping for the best. I don't think that there is a single nation that is prepared for something like this on a large scale.
Can we even prepare for it other than reducing the impact a little bit?

There are currently claims that the US has "passed the point of containment", which means the next few months will probably be rough.

One of the unknowns is whether or not there is even a "season" and whether or not the warming temperatures of spring and summer will slow it down (especially because there ARE cases in the Southern Hemisphere right now, which would suggest that summer temperatures might not be helping anything. (Off the top of my head, I don't know the exact number of cases in those countries, so maybe it IS helping...maybe it isn't). We won't know until it starts to warm up. One silver lining though is that we're getting to the point to where flu season is going to begin winding down. Once that's done...there's one less thing to worry about. Coronaviruses that we are used to seeing all the time, do typically slow down once summer comes around. Just have to hope this one shares that quality. What's keeping me level headed is the statistic I saw this morning that something like 70% of cases in China have entered recovery. What that says to me (hopefully) is that this is just going to be a few month-duration thing. First case in China was around New Years and now here we are in March hearing that most of their cases are recovered or recovering. (Whether or not it's actually true...I don't know. Only heard that one story). If it's true...That wasn't even three full months. So while it may be a rough few months...we can only hope that's all it is. Personally, I'm choosing to believe this. If I'm wrong...then I'm wrong. But since I have to go to work...I need to keep a level head. Telling myself this might end when it warms up...is keeping my head somewhat clear. I have anxiety as it is, so I'm trying my damnedest to not let this get to me.

As for preparing...just do what you normally do to avoid the flu. 6 feet is a magic number going around right now. If someone's coughing...keep that 6 feet minimum between you. I'm just going to repeat something from a post I saw on Facebook yesterday. Shop as you normally would. Don't go nuts and bulk buy EVERYTHING. (Like we're seeing with hand sanitizer and toilet paper). Shop as you normally would, but for a FEW items...pick up a little extra. Canned foods, pasta, jarred sauces, frozen dinners, stuff like that. Don't go and buy the entire store out of toilet paper 😂 Also recommended is just go out and buy a few things to keep you entertained if you have to be stuck at home. Buy some board games if you don't have any. Get a deck of cards. Buy some iTunes cards for your kids so they can get some new movies and shoes. Keeping yourself entertained while stuck at home could end up being just as important as everything else. Don't need people going crazy because they have nothing to do and can't leave the house.

 

[yaxomoxay]

There are currently claims that the US has "passed the point of containment", which means the next few months will probably be rough.

One of the unknowns is whether or not there is even a "season" and whether or not the warming temperatures of spring and summer will slow it down (especially because there ARE cases in the Southern Hemisphere right now, which would suggest that summer temperatures might not be helping anything. (Off the top of my head, I don't know the exact number of cases in those countries, so maybe it IS helping...maybe it isn't). We won't know until it starts to warm up. One silver lining though is that we're getting to the point to where flu season is going to begin winding down. Once that's done...there's one less thing to worry about. Coronaviruses that we are used to seeing all the time, do typically slow down once summer comes around. Just have to hope this one shares that quality. What's keeping me level headed is the statistic I saw this morning that something like 70% of cases in China have entered recovery. What that says to me (hopefully) is that this is just going to be a few month-duration thing. First case in China was around New Years and now here we are in March hearing that most of their cases are recovered or recovering. (Whether or not it's actually true...I don't know. Only heard that one story). If it's true...That wasn't even three full months. So while it may be a rough few months...we can only hope that's all it is. Personally, I'm choosing to believe this. If I'm wrong...then I'm wrong. But since I have to go to work...I need to keep a level head. Telling myself this might end when it warms up...is keeping my head somewhat clear. I have anxiety as it is, so I'm trying my damnedest to not let this get to me.

Yeah, unfortunately only time will tell.
Thanks for all you do, being in that field of work is not easy when things are "normal", I can't imagine how difficult it is at the moment while you're waiting for the Tsunami to hit...

 

[Raid]

@yaxomoxay There's another very techinical analysis of the spread of Corvo-19 here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov?dmin=2020-01-28&l=unrooted

Hope the worst that happens to your family in Italy is a mild case of cabin fever...

 

[yaxomoxay]

@yaxomoxay There's another very techinical analysis of the spread of Corvo-19 here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov?dmin=2020-01-28&l=unrooted

Hope the worst that happens to your family in Italy is a mild case of cabin fever...

Thanks, feel free to add it to the first post (it's a wiki)

 

[smirking]

One of the unknowns is whether or not there is even a "season" and whether or not the warming temperatures of spring and summer will slow it down (especially because there ARE cases in the Southern Hemisphere right now, which would suggest that summer temperatures might not be helping anything.

I remember reading somewhere that some research determined that the ideal temperature for Covid-19 transmission was about 8.5C (~50F). There was also a case study by Chinese scientists that suggests that the effects of air conditioning may help the virus stay afloat, stay viable, and travel farther (at least in an enclosed space).

Warmer and dryer weather is coming soon to California. I am hoping hoping hoping that a hot spring will slow this down enough to prevent it from spiraling out here.

 

[iOS Geek]

Yeah, unfortunately only time will tell.
Thanks for all you do, being in that field of work is not easy when things are "normal", I can't imagine how difficult it is at the moment while you're waiting for the Tsunami to hit...

A level head is key! Admittedly I was a little overconfident...until we had that one case at our hospital. Now it's in the back of our heads. It was a wakeup call for sure. Personally, I had no contact with that patient. I float to the ER on occasion when I am needed, but I am primarily in L&D/NICU. We already follow strict prevention procedures on our floor year-round, so for us, the only change is that we're being even more strict than we already were. All of the volunteers on our floor are off the floor until April 10th at the earliest. And as of today, the ER and other departments are no longer allowed to call me (or anyone who works on a unit with children when they aren't floating) to their unit unless it is an absolute worst case scenario emergency, and even then, there is a pyramid list of people they have to contact and bring in before they can get to us.

 

[jkcerda]

corona virus details

“But it’s just generally good practice to make sure you have a two-week supply of anything you may need. Whether it be food or prescription medication. Not only for you, but also your family.”

 

[iOS Geek]

I remember reading somewhere that some research determined that the ideal temperature for Covid-19 transmission was about 8.5C (~50F). There was also a case study by Chinese scientists that suggests that the effects of air conditioning may help the virus stay afloat, stay viable, and travel farther (at least in an enclosed space).

Warmer and dryer weather is coming soon to California. I am hoping hoping hoping that a hot spring will slow this down enough to prevent it from spiraling out here.

Ugh...an ideal temperature of about 50...means we're screwed in my area. At this time of year, we are normally within 10 degrees above and below of that, and will be in terms of "average" until next month. Our average weather for this time of year is not going to work in our favor in that case. Warm and dry is something I would like right now, unfortunately when we get warm...it ain't dry 😂 When it's warm here...it's humid as hell!

Right now, the claim is that the warmer weather will slow it down or stop it. The answer to that claim...is that we won't know until we get there. I'm not really a fan of hot weather, but this is one time where I'm wishing it would start as soon as possible!

 

[smirking]

Right now, the claim is that the warmer weather will slow it down or stop it. The answer to that claim...is that we won't know until we get there. I'm not really a fan of hot weather, but this is one time where I'm wishing it would start as soon as possible!

There's some hope that warmer weather itself will stop it in its tracks, but Singapore is hot and it didn't prevent an outbreak there. Still, perhaps the temperature combined with a competent response assisted the Singaporeans in arresting the growth of Covid19 quickly. Despite the population density of Singapore, they got it under control quite impressively. Maybe they had some help.

 

[AustinIllini]

There's some hope that warmer weather itself will stop it in its tracks, but Singapore is hot and it didn't prevent an outbreak there. Still, perhaps the temperature combined with a competent response assisted the Singaporeans in arresting the growth of Covid19 quickly. Despite the population density of Singapore, they got it under control quite impressively. Maybe they had some help.

I think it would simultaneously take some measure such as quarantine combined with warm weather to really slow this thing.

Also might want to turn the air conditioning off if you have it.

 

[iOS Geek]

There's some hope that warmer weather itself will stop it in its tracks, but Singapore is hot and it didn't prevent an outbreak there. Still, perhaps the temperature combined with a competent response assisted the Singaporeans in arresting the growth of Covid19 quickly. Despite the population density of Singapore, they got it under control quite impressively. Maybe they had some help.

Exactly. The ticket to this might just be combining every single "small" detail that might not work when done on their own. Maybe on it's own, the weather won't stop this. But when combined with other measures, the weather might be the factor that does just enough to push us to having the upper hand. This could be a situation where "just enough" could end up being HUGE.
[automerge]1583855500[/automerge]

I think it would simultaneously take some measure such as quarantine combined with warm weather to really slow this thing.

Just posted the same thing before I saw that you beat me to it!

 

[smirking]

Exactly. The ticket to this might just be combining every single "small" detail that might not work when done on their own. Maybe on it's own, the weather won't stop this. But when combined with other measures, the weather might be the factor that does just enough to push us to having the upper hand.

In most places in the US, we have the advantage of lower population density. If enough people take this seriously and stop calling it just another flu, we might have enough structural advantages to keep this thing to an annoying extended (but manageable) disruption to daily life instead of something that turns the world upside down.

If people fail to grasp the basics of infectious disease 101 because they're unwilling or unable, it's not going to be a good year.

Best wishes for your safety and the safety of your healthcare provider teammates. I used to be one of you and that's one reason why I'm being very vocal about this (to the great dismay of many, even some of my friends).

 

[AustinIllini]

In most places in the US, we have the advantage of lower population density. If enough people take this seriously and stop calling it just another flu, we might have enough structural advantages to keep this thing to an annoying extended (but manageable) disruption to daily life instead of something that turns the world upside down.

If people fail to grasp the basics of infectious disease 101 because they're unwilling or unable, it's not going to be a good year.

Best wishes for your safety and the safety of your healthcare provider teammates. I used to be one of you and that's one reason why I'm being very vocal about this (to the great dismay of many, even some of my friends).

Obviously we're about to veer into PRSI here, but the message to Americans in general has been problematic.

On one hand, you have the Newspapers, who pay their bills using strong headlines. On the other, you have the President, who wants to protect his economy by downplaying the issue. Newspapers have lead to a panic in some places in America (toilet paper and hand sanitizer), while Trump has lead certain people to dangerously underestimate the issue.

Ultimately, the answer is probably "Yes, you should be concerned. This is a very serious illness" but "no, you probably shouldn't panic".

I didn't realize how populus Lombardy is. It's almost analogous to Wuhan in China in terms of population.

 

[smirking]

Ultimately, the answer is probably "Yes, you should be concerned. This is a very serious illness" but "no, you probably shouldn't panic".

Yes, don't panic. Just a handful things might be able to flatten the curve enough to make it mangeable. The only scenario in which this completely becomes all out mayhem is if the outbreak cannot be mitigated enough to buy healthcare resources time to prepare and discharge existing patients.

1) No mass events.
2) Stop shaking hands.
3) Wash your hands.
4) Don't hang out in enclosed spaces with poor air circulation with a lot of people.
5) If you get sick. Assume the worst. Do not give it to anyone if you can help it.

That's it!

If you're in a high risk group, you should probably be a hermit for a while. If you're not, live your life with some precautions, but don't hole up in a bunker.

Even if you do everything right or everything wrong, so much of this will boil down to luck. Ultimately, it's a numbers game, but if everyone's risk is lowered by 20% across the board, it adds up to a huge difference. It could be the difference between 100 million global infections by the end of May or only 400,000.

We really really need to get the testing situation sorted out though. We can't do the aggressive contact tracing that would allow us to slowly reverse the numbers until we have widespread testing.

As of earlier this week, testing is still being rationed so that the people who get tested are the ones who fit the risk profile to a T or ones who are going critical so they know how to protect the healthcare staff who have to treat them (and patients who would be infected if they ended up the wrong unit).

I have a friend who came down with the flu for the second time in the past few months after said spouse returned from a European business trip after meeting with a person from Italy who coughed throughout the meeting. Friend is mildly symptomatic and is being refused testing because they didn't "fit the profile".

 

[nicho]

I didn't realize how populus Lombardy is. It's almost analogous to Wuhan in China in terms of population.

Thrice the size, though, physically. Which may help with spread (lower density). I guess, though, it may also hamper response/support. Harder to ensure everyone gets supplies etc. without just letting them go to the supermarket which kind of defeats the purpose of the lockdown. Online shopping (especially online supermarkets and JD.com) kept China going through this...

 

[yaxomoxay]

A photo taken at a hospital in Milan of a nurse collapsed after hours of overtime, photo taken by her boss who to thank her for her hard work. This is now a symbol of the fight against Covid-19.

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Ultimately, the answer is probably "Yes, you should be concerned. This is a very serious illness" but "no, you probably shouldn't panic".

Yep. At the end we need to take this seriously, while at the same time we need to keep the economy up. The last thing the world need is for a collapse of the US economy, while the EU and China are on their knees, all while there is a virus spreading around the globe.

I didn't realize how populus Lombardy is. It's almost analogous to Wuhan in China in terms of population.

It's pretty populous, and it's also the locomotive of the Italian economy.

 

[iOS Geek]

Obviously we're about to veer into PRSI here, but the message to Americans in general has been problematic.

On one hand, you have the Newspapers, who pay their bills using strong headlines. On the other, you have the President, who wants to protect his economy by downplaying the issue. Newspapers have lead to a panic in some places in America (toilet paper and hand sanitizer), while Trump has lead certain people to dangerously underestimate the issue.

Ultimately, the answer is probably "Yes, you should be concerned. This is a very serious illness" but "no, you probably shouldn't panic".

I didn't realize how populus Lombardy is. It's almost analogous to Wuhan in China in terms of population.

You’re exactly right about the message to Americans. Speaking specifically about the media...I’m in FULL support of that doctor who basically said they need to shut up. Is this a big deal? Absolutely it is. But the added panic isn’t helping at all. Reporting it is one thing...24/7 bombardment about it is another.

 

[jkcerda]

Obviously we're about to veer into PRSI here, but the message to Americans in general has been problematic.

On one hand, you have the Newspapers, who pay their bills using strong headlines. On the other, you have the President, who wants to protect his economy by downplaying the issue. Newspapers have lead to a panic in some places in America (toilet paper and hand sanitizer), while Trump has lead certain people to dangerously underestimate the issue.

Ultimately, the answer is probably "Yes, you should be concerned. This is a very serious illness" but "no, you probably shouldn't panic".

I didn't realize how populus Lombardy is. It's almost analogous to Wuhan in China in terms of population.

is it really about the economy? people are going full moron over TP and water, imagine what will happen if they sounded more serious AND the clown population we have went full moron? ignorance is bliss........

 

[yaxomoxay]

1) No mass events.

This is an election year. Without going into PRSI-style discussion (which usually ends up in blaming this or that; let's not do this here), the fact that it's an election year means that if the government stops mass events then the elections will severely be affected, one way or another. The same is true if the parties decide to stop rallies on their own.
It's going to affect political donations, it's going to affect battleground states, it's going to affect the legitimacy of the elections. It's a weird place to be; I am sure that all campaigns, from Sanders, to Biden, to Trump, are totally worried and unprepared at what to do because any action on a practical level will affect the political level from an elections standpoint. It's a totally weird circumstance here.

 

[iOS Geek]

In most places in the US, we have the advantage of lower population density. If enough people take this seriously and stop calling it just another flu, we might have enough structural advantages to keep this thing to an annoying extended (but manageable) disruption to daily life instead of something that turns the world upside down.

If people fail to grasp the basics of infectious disease 101 because they're unwilling or unable, it's not going to be a good year.

Best wishes for your safety and the safety of your healthcare provider teammates. I used to be one of you and that's one reason why I'm being very vocal about this (to the great dismay of many, even some of my friends).

Thanks for the well wishes! Would I be right in assuming it's situations like this that are making you glad you aren't in the field anymore? 😂 I love my job. I love what I do every day. I have the best coworkers in the world. I wouldn't want to change my job for any other. That being said...because of the heightened risk I have, simply because of my job...I still have that voice in the back of my head saying "look what you got yourself into, dumbass" 😂 😂 😂

 

[JagdTiger]

4 cases reported now in my state-one on Friday and 3 more yesterday. I don't remember the exact number, but I think they reported 17 negative tests. The tests certainly seem slim, though. I had a doctor's appointment in Lexington earlier today, and the office had done things like remove all the magazines from the waiting room. I was also questioned about travel out of the country, and had my temperature taken(this office I think has never done that before).

It got worse, the news media was not telling the absolute truth or were being told a more pleasing version to the public, there has been even discusons on it is worse then the flu...had the feeling it would spread more, New England may just get more cases.

 

[smirking]

You’re exactly right about the message to Americans. Speaking specifically about the media... Is this a big deal? Absolutely it is. But the added panic isn’t helping at all.

I'm of two minds about this. Just speaking of MacRumors, I think there are WAY too many Covid19 front page stories. It's becoming MacCovid19Rumors.

On the other hand, I didn't start really paying attention until the number of headlines started to irritate me. I figured that China stopped the worst of it and we had enough of a head start that it wouldn't really affect me too much in the end. Once I started digging in, my thoughts changed to, "Oh ---- people. We gotta knock this out early. Please stop saying it's the flu."

 

[yaxomoxay]

I'm of two minds about this. Just speaking of MacRumors, I think there are WAY too many Covid19 front page stories. It's becoming MacCovid19Rumors.

On the other hand, I didn't start really paying attention until the number of headlines started to irritate me. I figured that China stopped the worst of it and we had enough of a head start that it wouldn't really affect me too much in the end. Once I started digging in, my thoughts changed to, "Oh ---- people. We gotta knock this out early. Please stop saying it's the flu."

I started getting worried when it became clear that China kept this under wrap for two months