How would this be objectively determined? What does "likely" even mean? Is 60% odds of success good enough? 50%? 10%?
Well, I'm not a lawyer or a judge, but I'd say that depends....
If Apple just unilaterally decided they wanted to spite Epic and kick fortnite off the App Store - it'd likely be a fairly low bar. The argument would pretty much be - we've been paying all required fees, following all rules, and were just blighted for no good reason.
If there was an interpretation of contract dispute, perhaps similar to the "Hey!" e-mail app, then the bar would probably be 50/60%
But, instead, if you as the developer you unilaterally decide to violate contract terms then the bar is going to be very high, maybe 95% - 100%. For a *preliminary injunction* (which has a higher bar then the initial TRO / Temporary Restraining Order) you'd likely have to be able to point to an absolute "bright-line rule" to justify your action and justify your request for relief (e.g. order Apple to return fortnite to the App Store and allow for Epic Direct IAP).
That may be all your interested in - so you can stop here if it mostly answers your question.
----------------
Overall, though, I'd say the answer is going to be mostly based on what prior similar case precedence has been. I mean, the accusations of some business or another being "anti-competitive" are not brand new or novel. So what's the history of anti-competitive cases (in general and similar to the case being made) been like?
Obviously, that's not going to be the end of it - but it seems to be the largest stumbling block for many that I see. They're just Team A or Team B. For or against. This is why lawyers will spend their entire lifetime in just one single particular part of law - because they need to know the entire history of cases in their corner of law.
I mean, you or anyone on this forum, may in their heart of hearts feel that 30% is too much and Apple shouldn't be able to deny you 3rd party App stores. But, when the FTC itself says, regarding Sherman Act, section 2, that it has historically been interpreted to mean "
it is not illegal for a company to have a monopoly, to charge "high prices," or to try to achieve a monopoly position by what might be viewed by some as particularly aggressive methods." Then that means you're going to have to show how Apples actions deviate from "
something other than merely having a better product, superior management or historic accident."
This isn't to say there aren't things that Apple does that harm developers or consumers - but those are different cases. On this topic, though, Epic has an uphill battle. And the forum favorite bullet points of "monopolies are illegal, period." or "high prices" or "Apple is maintaining its monopoly by only allowing its own App Store and no others" don't have significance unless Apple is deviating from the rest of the market. Which isn't the case, since as far as Apple locking out any competing "app" stores - that is identical to what happens on Playstation, Xbox, and Nintendo game systems. As far the as 30% - Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft, Google, Steam, they all charge that amount. Epic can deviate for the better. And Google can deviate, again for the better, to allow for 3rd party app stores. But, this doesn't mean that because the xBox, Nintendo, and Playstation systems don't - that they're anti-competitive. Or, explain, why is it legal for them, but not for Apple.
So for a number of reasons, Epic's case is viewed as being very weak, based on historical interpretation of anti-trust law.
Epic has stronger points where they discuss how the App review process isn't clear cut and straight forward. And that Apple maybe denying apps not based on rules violations, but because they compete against Apples own interests. But, any win on these points is unlikely to result in what Epic and Apple critics are arguing for - a 3rd party App Store and reduction of the 30% revenue cut.
Moreover, the judge is saying, more or less, that they don't feel Epic is even being honest in the claims it's bringing forward based on Epic's own conduct and refusal to understand basic distinctions (i.e. the doctrine of clean or dirty hands).