Death of the universal interface
I think the iPhone and iPod Touch devices have started a trend that will get even stronger with the iPad: the death of the browser as our universal interface for everything. Let me explain.
It used to be the case (before the www) that whenever you wanted a computer to do anything specific, you had to install an application. Software for booking a vacation, a plane ticket or buying a book was so specialized (and in need of a huge database) that you had to go to travel agencies and book stores.
Then came the web and browsers quickly became the universal interfaces. With the massive databases now available online, the browser could become the universal interface for practically anything. But because it was never intended for that, several helper apps had to be invented to add more intelligence to the dumb browser client. That's why we're stuck with stuff like Javascript, Flash and all the other add-ons.
Browsers are getting rather overwhelmed though. They have to accommodate everything from online shopping to reading newspapers, and from watching videos to doing your accounts. By nature, a universal interface can never be as perfect and useful as a smart, dedicated application.
However, we don't want to go back to a model where you need to go to a developer's site to download and install an application and then properly maintain it as it gets new versions etcetera - not when it's just for checking stocks. For our main productivity applications we do still accept this. But nobody wants to be bogged down by hundreds of 'useful' little utilities - at least, not in the way they have to be installed and maintained on a traditional OS.
Some companies think that the browser will take over everything and more or less become the OS. That's one intriguing vision. But I think Apple has shown us a different idea: the app store. Compared to the traditional way of acquiring and using software, the app store is brilliant. Easy purchase, easy installation an no maintenance for the user has led to its enormous success.
And with the app store we have seen the return of the dedicated application! Many, many iPhone applications are just 'smart interfaces' for data that's readily available on the internet (not necessarily on the web). But these interfaces are less cumbersome, present the data in a more useful way and only present the choices the user needs.
Apps like these fit the human way of working: we generally use tools that fit the task. You don't stir your coffee with a screwdriver (usually). Apps are small, dedicated tools. You book a plane ticket with the ticketing app, you check stocks with the stocks app. It's easy and you simply hit a button to go and do something else.
This model actually reflects the latest insights in the way humans perform tasks. We are context-driven. We essentially do not multitask but quickly switch our attention (and our persona, role and behavior) from task to task by switching our context. It's true: many people can't stand the interrupt-driven style that computers have forced upon us. The iPhone/iPad can follow our preferred way of working by making those context switches with only two taps. And yes, the iPhone/iPad also focuses our attention by showing only one relevant task/context on its screen at any one time.
That's why the iPad is brilliant. That's why Steve said it's the best experience for what it does: the iPad can offer you an infinite number of intuitive and custom environments, or contexts, for the tasks you want or need to perform. Changing your context only takes two taps. That's why I don't think the next OS will allow multitasking, unless they give in to popular demand.
I think the best developers understand this. They will amaze us with wonderful city guides, travel planning apps, interactive television schedules with video previews right there in the schedule, recipe books that can show you preparations interactively and step-by-step, electronic portfolio apps with pictures and demo reels for photographers, videographers, actors and models... to name just some ideas.
The big screen, the fast CPU and the design that doesn't distract from the task at hand - all that will make the iPad a winner.
to add a camera and multi-tasking to the iPad.
