Gen 3 butterfly keyboard

[PickUrPoison]

Not trying to start a flame war or anything but as I also regularly visit reddit, and a couple of users are already reporting problems w/ the keyboards:

https://www.reddit.com/r/macbookpro/comments/96y63y/has_anyone_experienced_keyboard_issues_on_2018/

If this is true then skipping 2018 also was the correct decision for me.

As the 2018 MBP installed base approaches a million units, even a thousand complaints would be 0.1%. In any case, it’s still too early to know much, unless it was a disaster which apparently it’s not.

By no later than the six month mark there will be enough hard data to begin comparing it to the previous generations and getting a pretty good sense of how successful the latest revision has been. By the end of year one, data should be sufficient to extrapolate long-term reliability.

 

[537635]

I am not being a nay-sayer, but all keyboards have a failure rate. One or two issues out of the whole lot won't indicate if there is still a fault in the keyboard design.

I will wait for if/when we hear more complaints roll in on there being keyboard failures before making a judgement of if there is still an issue on the 2018 MBPs on a wide scale.

*DISCLAIMER - This was typed on a working 2017 MBP keyboard*

Oh, this again. We've heard these arguments with 2016 and 2017 models also. Nothing is wrong. This is blown out of proportion. Vocal minority.

Can we please agree that industry wide 2016 and 2017 keyboards are one of the worst if not the worst in terms of reliability. If not, please give example of other keyboards failing even more. So if Apple wants to regain a position of making quality products - new keyboards need to be flawless. And sticking a condom under every single key just isn't it.

Besides, this is the author of BTT. I will tend to trust him far more than some anonymous Macbook forum user.

 

[Painter2002]

Oh, this again. We've heard these arguments with 2016 and 2017 models also. Nothing is wrong. This is blown out of proportion. Vocal minority.

Can we please agree that industry wide 2016 and 2017 keyboards are one of the worst if not the worst in terms of reliability. If not, please give example of other keyboards failing even more. So if Apple wants to regain a position of making quality products - new keyboards need to be flawless. And sticking a condom under every single key just isn't it.

Besides, this is the author of BTT. I will tend to trust him far more than some anonymous Macbook forum user.

And oh this again! (Sarcasm) I clearly stated that we need to hear more complaints before we jump to conclusions but clearly you missed that part. I am not sayin there is an issue, I’m not saying there isn’t, but we need more than one or two people to speak up if there are issues.

But if you want to automatically jump to assumptions or just like the drama of “oh the sky is falling” before knowing the severity of the situation, go ahead.

Edit: Oh and for the record, I never said there wasn’t an issue with the 2016/17 keyboards. Clearly there is an issue and I agree with that. I have a 2017 MBP and know the risk, and I also know there is a 4 year repair program.

 

[turbineseaplane]

I am not sayin there is an issue, I’m not saying there isn’t, but we need more than one or two people to speak up if there are issues.

One or two people?
Have you read through this forum and others?

Heard the podcasters and tech writers talking about this - many times with their own experiences?

 

[Painter2002]

One or two people?
Have you read through this forum and others?

Heard the podcasters and tech writers talking about this - many times with their own experiences?

Ugh, do I have to have an exact number of people? Clearly I am generalizing, 1 or 2 issues here and there out of the thousands of 2018 MacBook pros that have been sold.

But you know, you all seemed convinced that there is an issue on the 2018 MBP so I’ll let you take the limelight. Maybe you’re right, and maybe, just maybe we don’t have enough data and your wrong. All I suggest is consider your data sources and be careful on making assumptions.
[doublepost=1534221001][/doublepost]

One or two people?
Have you read through this forum and others?

Yes I have read this forum and others, and we were talking about the 2018 MBP keyboard failure, not the 2016/17. The issue of the 16/17 MBP is already known. I haven’t seen significant posts on this forum or others to suggest there is an issue with the 2018 models (yet, keyword). Again, I am NOT SAYING THERE ISN’T an issue with the 2018, just saying it’s too early and not enough complaints on a large scale to say there is an issue.

 

[537635]

Yes I have read this forum and others, and we were talking about the 2018 MBP keyboard failure, not the 2016/17. The issue of the 16/17 MBP is already known. I have seen significant posts on this forum or others to suggest there is an issue with the 2018 models (yet, keyword).

You do know that 2018 keyboard is the same as 2016 and 2017 with the addition of a silicone membrane, which only delays but not prevents the inevitable (see ifixit testing). The membrane is not fused and doesn't seal the mechanism from debris, only prevents ingress to certain extent. This extent was the only question and with these reports coming in so quickly and from reputable people I cannot but be pesimistic about this (owning a 2018 15 inch Pro and coming from a 2016 model).

Patiently waiting for somebody to suggest that this is a user's fault because they ate a donut 1.3 meters from the keyboard.

But if you want to automatically jump to assumptions or just like the drama of “oh the sky is falling” before knowing the severity of the situation, go ahead.

There is no drama. I like working inside Apple ecosystem very much and it bothers me that quality control has fallen so low, that all of the sudden a keyboard on a 3000 EUR laptop failing after a few months is the new "normal".

 

[Painter2002]

You do know that 2018 keyboard is the same as 2016 and 2017 with the addition of a silicone membrane, which only delays but not prevents the inevitable (see ifixit testing). The membrane is not fused and doesn't seal the mechanism from debris, only prevents ingress to certain extent. This extent was the only question and with these reports coming in so quickly and from reputable people I cannot but be pesimistic about this (owning a 2018 15 inch Pro and coming from a 2016 model).

Patiently waiting for somebody to suggest that this is a user's fault because they ate a donut 1.3 meters from the keyboard.



There is no drama. I like working inside Apple ecosystem very much and it bothers me that quality control has fallen so low, that all of the sudden a keyboard on a 3000 EUR laptop failing after a few months is the new "normal".

I understand and am equally hesitant/pessimistic at callin the gen 3 keyboards a fix, but to date I simply haven’t seen an influx of people reporting failed keyboards on 2018 machines yet. To say there is an issue, or call someone a nay-sayer just because they are reminding people to use caution before jumping to conclusions is a little premature until enough data is out to say there is an issue.

I was just trying to kindly remind that it’s early in the cycle of the 2018 model, and quite honestly we haven’t seen enough complaints yet on the new keyboard. I mean where are all the threads on this forum complaining that their 2018 MBP keyboard is failing.

I am not saying there isn’t the possibility there is an issue with the 2018 model, but I don’t think the verdict is out yet on that one. That’s all.

EDIT: Also, yes I am aware of the design change, as I have been following these threads as much as everyone else on here.

 

[537635]

There is no verdict for 2016 and 2017 model either. Apple hasn't said anything (besides "very little" keyboards might fail so we'll just replace the whole topcase for free), there are no official numbers what percentage of laptops were serviced.

What I am saying is that Apple got a reputation for making the worst (and I really mean the worst... I cannot rememeber something else failing this miserably) keyboards in the history of computers. 2018 model is the same (really... it's the same keyboard with a slightly better ingress protection). There is still the problem of sensitive mechanism so there is no verdict necessary. These keyboards are equaly prone to failure as the previous ones. We just need to wait and see how good the ingress protection is. A single complaint after just a few weeks is definitely not a good sign.

This was a quick and dirty fix, when redesign was definitely needed.

 

[fokmik]

After 1 week we have 1 report for the 2018,while on the 2016, after 1 week we got 100 reports...
But hey,the 2018 its the best keyboard made by humans

 

[ascender]

Remember though that the iFixit tests on the membrane seemed to suggest it works well at keeping particles out. And the key caps can be replaced, meaning users should be able to take them off to clean under a problematic key (or replace it meaning no new top case), so both those things would seem to be good improvements over the previous design?

 

[Tusskan]

Remember though that the iFixit tests on the membrane seemed to suggest it works well at keeping particles out. And the key caps can be replaced, meaning users should be able to take them off to clean under a problematic key (or replace it meaning no new top case), so both those things would seem to be good improvements over the previous design?

If that is true, I guess that will open up a new markets for Apple Customized Keycaps as in Mechanical Keyboards.

 

[maflynn]

And the key caps can be replaced, meaning users should be able to take them off to clean under a problematic key

The spacebar is still impossible to remove without breaking it, and removing the other keycaps is a risky proposition, especially if you're not used to such delicate work.

 

[vaugha]

There is no verdict for 2016 and 2017 model either. Apple hasn't said anything (besides "very little" keyboards might fail so we'll just replace the whole topcase for free), there are no official numbers what percentage of laptops were serviced.

What I am saying is that Apple got a reputation for making the worst (and I really mean the worst... I cannot rememeber something else failing this miserably) keyboards in the history of computers. 2018 model is the same (really... it's the same keyboard with a slightly better ingress protection). There is still the problem of sensitive mechanism so there is no verdict necessary. These keyboards are equaly prone to failure as the previous ones. We just need to wait and see how good the ingress protection is. A single complaint after just a few weeks is definitely not a good sign.

This was a quick and dirty fix, when redesign was definitely needed.

agreed.

 

[poorcody]

... there are no official numbers what percentage of laptops were serviced.

https://appleinsider.com/articles/1...em-to-improve-reliability-and-thats-not-great

These numbers are based on actual data of repairs collected from Apple stores and other repair centers:

*Keyboard repair rates of MacBooks by model year:
2014: 5.6%
2015: 6.0%
2016: 11.8%
2017: 8.2%

 

[deeddawg]

https://appleinsider.com/articles/1...em-to-improve-reliability-and-thats-not-great

These numbers are based on actual data of repairs collected from Apple stores and other repair centers:

*Keyboard repair rates of MacBooks by model year:
2014: 5.6%
2015: 6.0%
2016: 11.8%
2017: 8.2%

With due respect, you're misrepresenting the numbers -- that's not what the article states. I'm sure it's unintentional as it's easy to misread.

Appleinsider claims the above numbers as the percentage of "warranty events" which were keyboard repairs -- NOT percentage of units sold, which they don't give any figures on. Meaning -- of the macbooks brought in for a warranty repair, the listed percentages were the portion of those repairs which were the keyboards. There's still no solid info relating the warranty numbers against the total units sold.

The 2014 MacBook Pro model year saw 2120 service events in the first year, with 118 related to keyboard issues necessitating an upper case replacement —5.6 percent of all MacBook Pros serviced in the first year. The 2015 has 1904 service tickets, with 114 relating to the keyboard, making 6.0 percent.

The two numbers are very similar, which is to be expected. The keyboards were essentially unchanged since the 2012 Retina MacBook Pro, and should have failure rates similar to each other.

Apple released the new keyboard with the MacBook, and moved the design to the 2016 MacBook Pro. In the first year of the 2016 MacBook Pro, our data gathered 1402 warranty events, with 165 related to only the keyboard and not including the Touch Bar —11.8 percent.

As we mentioned, we now have a full year of data. Since the MacBook Pro release in June 2017, our data set has grown to 1369 captured service events in the first year of availability with 112 related to keyboard issues also not including any Touch Bar issues, very slightly growing the share to 8.2 percent.

 

[poorcody]

Appleinsider claims the above numbers as the percentage of "warranty events" which were keyboard repairs -- NOT percentage of units sold, which they don't give any figures on. Meaning -- of the macbooks brought in for a warranty repair, the listed percentages were the portion of those repairs which were the keyboards. There's still no solid info relating the warranty numbers against the total units sold.

The article states that the number of machines sold year-to-year is "pretty static", so the percentages can be compared year-to-year:

Overall, the total number of service calls is lower for both the 2016 and 2017 MacBook Pro, versus the older models, even including the keyboard failures. Given that the volumes of MacBook Pros sold over the years are pretty static, this points to a more reliable computer overall —which is good considering that there are no user-replaceable parts.

 

[udflyer]

As the 2018 MBP installed base approaches a million units, even a thousand complaints would be 0.1%. In any case, it’s still too early to know much, unless it was a disaster which apparently it’s not.

By no later than the six month mark there will be enough hard data to begin comparing it to the previous generations and getting a pretty good sense of how successful the latest revision has been. By the end of year one, data should be sufficient to extrapolate long-term reliability.

My hunch is this keyboard will be worse.

If debris gets under their new rubber, blowing it out with air wil be impossible....

We will see.

I find it strange that an Acer $200 windows pc has a more reliable keyboard than a $3,000 and above Macbook Pro

smh

 

[deeddawg]

The article states that the number of machines sold year-to-year is "pretty static", so the percentages can be compared year-to-year:

That wasn’t the point.

The numbers you posted are misleading. They’re not % of systems sold, they’re % of systems brought in for repair. How those change by year are irrelevant to the clarification I made.

 

[PickUrPoison]

That wasn’t the point.

The numbers you posted are misleading. They’re not % of systems sold, they’re % of systems brought in for repair. How those change by year are irrelevant to the clarification I made.

You make a good point. The actual rate of keyboard problems would seem to be quite low.

Of the approximately 10 million MBP Apple sells in a year, most wouldn’t need any service at all. But assume 10% needed some type of repair. Of those million units that required service, about 100,000 were due to problems with the new keyboard. That’s an overall failure rate of 1%. Yet some who post here will try to claim the problem is widespread.

Of course this assumes the AppleInsider data is representative of the population.

 

[537635]

1. People who do not have any kind of problems with keyboards.
2. People who have problems, but do not identify them (they think it's just a user error when something is mistyped).
3. People who recognize the problems but do not consider them important (they don't type a lot, mostly surf and use the trackpad).
4. People who recognize the problems, but live with them because the service is to expensive (many people do not know about the widespread issue and repair program).
5. People who recognize the problems and have had the topcase replaced.
6. People who recognize the problems and have had the topcase replaced multiple times.
7. People who recognize the problems and have had the laptop completely replaced.


I believe that users 2-7 represent a very large percentage. Certainly greater than 10%, with number 2 being the largest group. The machines are bought by people who have very little knowledge about computer and who are not well informed.

Apple hasn't posted any official numbers. We only have the Apple Insider's estimate. Which is in my opinion as good as any of ours. I know quite a few people with the 2016+ Pros. Sadly there isn't a single one, which wouldn't have any problems at all. Some just live with them and some had the topcase replaced already.

For clarification, I'm in the last group. Had the topcase replaced 4 or 5 times (honestly cannot remember anymore), laptop was in service for the better part of its life. Now typing this on a 2018 model (for which I do acknowledge that Apple really did something no other company would do - replace the laptop with a newer model).
Still I do not for a second believe that the new keyboard is a permanent and well designed fix. Eventually I will buy a second Macbook and keep alternating between the two when one will be in service (cost wise I would either way be due for a new computer in a while).

 

[wchigo]

Had my 2016 13" nTB MacBook Pro pretty much since release and just picked up a new 2018 15" over the weekend. So far I really like the feel of the keyboard compared to the 2016 version. It just somehow feels more pleasant to type on, and while it is definitely less "clacky" than the 2016, that sits just fine with me.

Never had an issue with the keyboard on the first-gen rMB, which I had for a year or so before I bought the nTB. Had a period of a week or so where my left shift key didn't work on my nTB, but then it fixed itself and never cropped up again. Now on to the 2018 15", which I'm hoping to keep for longer, so hopefully my luck with the keyboard lottery continues.

 

[deeddawg]

Of course this assumes the AppleInsider data is representative of the population.

That of course is the big question. It's not clear how AI gets their data or how representative it may be of the overall population. Maybe it is? Maybe it isn't. We simply don't know.

I can only imagine they have a number of Apple store employees (or authorized repair places) with sufficient access in the repair ticketing system who provide AI with reports of some sort. Are they compensated in some way for risking their jobs by providing company-confidential information, or are they doing it on their own for some reason? If the latter, what is that reason and could it potentially skew the data they provide? Of the data sources, are they representative of the general population or are they concentrated in some segment whether by geography (i.e. large cities or east-coast) or other (university oriented stores)?

Essentially there are questions in terms of all the usual potential ways that data may not be a statistically accurate representation of the whole. So while the stats may be fun to discuss, they're effectively meaningless in terms of knowing anything for sure.

 

[Painter2002]

1. People who do not have any kind of problems with keyboards.
2. People who have problems, but do not identify them (they think it's just a user error when something is mistyped).
3. People who recognize the problems but do not consider them important (they don't type a lot, mostly surf and use the trackpad).
4. People who recognize the problems, but live with them because the service is to expensive (many people do not know about the widespread issue and repair program).
5. People who recognize the problems and have had the topcase replaced.
6. People who recognize the problems and have had the topcase replaced multiple times.
7. People who recognize the problems and have had the laptop completely replaced.


I believe that users 2-7 represent a very large percentage. Certainly greater than 10%, with number 2 being the largest group. The machines are bought by people who have very little knowledge about computer and who are not well informed.

Apple hasn't posted any official numbers. We only have the Apple Insider's estimate. Which is in my opinion as good as any of ours. I know quite a few people with the 2016+ Pros. Sadly there isn't a single one, which wouldn't have any problems at all. Some just live with them and some had the topcase replaced already.

For clarification, I'm in the last group. Had the topcase replaced 4 or 5 times (honestly cannot remember anymore), laptop was in service for the better part of its life. Now typing this on a 2018 model (for which I do acknowledge that Apple really did something no other company would do - replace the laptop with a newer model).
Still I do not for a second believe that the new keyboard is a permanent and well designed fix. Eventually I will buy a second Macbook and keep alternating between the two when one will be in service (cost wise I would either way be due for a new computer in a while).

The only problem I see with users is 2-7 is that I feel that would be a relatively small group of people. With the exception of people who only use their machine in dock mode, I have a really hard time seeing a large group of people ignoring or not addressing a keyboard issue on a purchase they dropped $2k or more on.

Part of the incentive most people buy Macs for is the service and reliability. If something as fundamental as the keyboard is broken, most people will take that in to Apple.

 

[537635]

Part of the incentive most people buy Macs for is the service and reliability. If something as fundamental as the keyboard is broken, most people will take that in to Apple.

On this forum absolutely. But in general I would speculate many also buy it for style and content consumption. If a key malfunctions from time to time, no biggie.

 

[Saturn1217]

The only problem I see with users is 2-7 is that I feel that would be a relatively small group of people. With the exception of people who only use their machine in dock mode, I have a really hard time seeing a large group of people ignoring or not addressing a keyboard issue on a purchase they dropped $2k or more on.

Part of the incentive most people buy Macs for is the service and reliability. If something as fundamental as the keyboard is broken, most people will take that in to Apple.

Normal people will live with a defective product for ages without getting it repaired. Think of all the people you see using phones with broken screens. Most people don't live that close to an apple store and it still takes effort to make an appointment and be without your computer for a while. Obviously I don't have any more evidence than you but you would be surprised how many people live with serious medical issues without seeing a doctor. The number of people who put off getting their computer repaired for something that doesn't render the computer inoperable is probably extremely high.