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Gonna be a bust?

IMO, first quarter of sales will show 'good' movement of product in countries like the US, UK and Japan (especially if subsidized!). China may have a good first quarter of sales for Apple as well. Everywhere else in the world will equate to near zero in sales. After first quarter, saturation will set in and sales will fall off significantly and then stabilize for the third and fourth quarters until the refresh the following year. Rinse and repeat. Sales will equate to less than 10 million in the first year. And I have a feeling that YoY sales will decline, until the :apple:Watch matures by year 3.
 
RodDavies said:
I 'get' the elegance of design and of Apple design in particular. You TELL me, the homescreen on the Apple Watch looks good to you with all those little circular bubbles on a, basically, rectangular watchface? Maybe YOU just don't 'get' it.
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I agree with you, but your arguing personal taste. If he likes it, he likes it. If you don't, you don't. I look at the Apple watch (as anything other than a sport accessory), as a nerdy-google-glass-type-thing. But others will wait outside all night to grab one.
 
I have a feeling most people on this site (including myself) are vastly underestimating just how wildly successful this thing is actually going to be. Will be fun to watch how this turns out.
 
tkermit said:
I have a feeling most people on this site (including myself) are vastly underestimating just how wildly successful this thing is actually going to be. Will be fun to watch how this turns out.
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Or the total opposite, as the general public start to find out what it can, or rather can't do, and realise they already have to have their phone on them all the time, which is a new concept for watch wearers, also the daily charging.

I think we all expect a typical rush to buy the latest Apple gadget, I think that's a given.

It's what happens after that we don't know about.

Pricing is going to be an important factor of course.
No Network discounts on a watch, and again there is the what does it do that my phone does not already do question.

But yes, it will be interesting.

It will also be interesting to see how Apple plays this long term, given that, right now, it's just an iPhone Accessory and also for a large part just a remote screen for things being done on the phone.

How long it will take Apple to break this umbilical cord and for the Watch to become a device in it's own right that everyone can buy.

At the moment, as we know, it's only a percentage of certain iPhone users that it's going to be any good for anyway.

It's going to be interesting also for those without iPhone who don't think, don't read, and just buy an Apple watch anyway :)
 
Honestly, I don't really expect the price to be that much of an issue. Nor will (the amount of) functionality be the deciding factor, I think, as long as it does whatever it does exceptionally well. Since this is Apple, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt on that one. What remains to be seen is whether this will be something people lust over, like the first iPod or the first iPhone. Then everything else will be secondary. I had friends in 2001 who were sold on the iPod just after seeing and handling it for a few minutes, sometimes before they literally had any idea of what it actually did ('this iPod is awesome – what does it do?'). They just knew they needed to have one.
 
Piggie said:
again there is the what does it do that my phone does not already do question.
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I think it doesn't need to do anything the phone doesn't already do. If the Watch can do everything the iPhone does independently of the phone, that would be ideal, and I think that is where the Watch is headed, eventually. But even the Watch as it is now, dependent as it is on the phone, will be useful to me. For instance, I'm sitting in my living room now, in my pajamas, which has no pockets. My phone is in the bedroom because I have no way to carry it. If I had the Watch, I could be wearing the Watch, and be connected to my phone through it.
 
Night Spring said:
I think it doesn't need to do anything the phone doesn't already do. If the Watch can do everything the iPhone does independently of the phone, that would be ideal, and I think that is where the Watch is headed, eventually. But even the Watch as it is now, dependent as it is on the phone, will be useful to me. For instance, I'm sitting in my living room now, in my pajamas, which has no pockets. My phone is in the bedroom because I have no way to carry it. If I had the Watch, I could be wearing the Watch, and be connected to my phone through it.
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Well that raises 2 questions.

1: Will it work that far away from the phone.

2: what will you be able to do on the watch, before you realise you need to walk to the bedroom to get it as the watch is just too restrictive and a pain to use, so it's just easier to get up and go get it.
 
Piggie said:
Well that raises 2 questions.

1: Will it work that far away from the phone.

2: what will you be able to do on the watch, before you realise you need to walk to the bedroom to get it as the watch is just too restrictive and a pain to use, so it's just easier to get up and go get it.
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1. Good question. Be interesting to find out.

2. Don't have to get up, because I have my iPad with me. See, that is what I keep saying -- right now, if I want all the functions of my phone, I have to bring both my iPad and iPhone to the living room. But if I had the Watch, I can leave the phone behind. This is why I'm excited about the potential of the Watch -- no more phone! Just the Watch and iPad. I know it isn't there yet, but that's my ideal device combo.
 
I'm interested in the watch. I think it'll be useful to me with the ability to check certain things without having to bring out my phone. Plus if it'll let me message people discretely, that'll be a plus.

Who knows if I'll consider it that useful but I'll try it!
 
Piggie said:
Well that raises 2 questions.

1: Will it work that far away from the phone.

2: what will you be able to do on the watch, before you realise you need to walk to the bedroom to get it as the watch is just too restrictive and a pain to use, so it's just easier to get up and go get it.
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1. Yes, it's going to use Wifi, and will probability work through your home Wifi. My Wifi runs through all the house.
 
Tanegashima said:
1. Yes, it's going to use Wifi, and will probability work through your home Wifi. My Wifi runs through all the house.
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Well, if it uses WiFi to connect to your phone, then it could use public WiFi to become much more independent and connect to your iCloud... No ?
 
McWizard said:
The fact you have to be carrying the phone for it to work, makes it really worthless to me!
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So let me get this straight, you want the Apple watch to REPLACE your phone?

Because that is basically what you are saying...you want to leave your phone at home, wear the watch and have the watch still send you texts and receive calls for you, right?

Wake up.

It's an accessory to the phone. The phone will sell more watches and people who really want the watch will buy a phone....and neither either powerful enough or sized properly to do the job of both properly.
 
MozMan68 said:
So let me get this straight, you want the Apple watch to REPLACE your phone?

Because that is basically what you are saying...you want to leave your phone at home, wear the watch and have the watch still send you texts and receive calls for you, right?

Wake up.

It's an accessory to the phone. The phone will sell more watches and people who really want the watch will buy a phone....and neither either powerful enough or sized properly to do the job of both properly.
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I think we all know that this generation Apple Watch is an accessory to the phone. That doesn't make it unreasonable for people to want a stand-alone Watch that isn't an accessory to the phone, does it?
 
Personally, I tried out a Pebble when they went on Kickstarter and after a few months decided that it's obvious limitations and compatibility with my iPhone made me decide that I wouldn't buy another smart watch until Apple made one. Roll forward a couple of years and that is about to become reality. I cannot wait to have the wrist notifications etc back. So handy to just glance at what's occurring than getting a phone out and then deciding whether to read or answer it. Don't see the harm in charging over night either, your phone is on the wall so it's no big deal. AS LONG as it's a case of it getting through the entire day and not giving up at 2pm (just like iPhone 5/5S).

Each to their own though, if it's not for you then just don't buy it.

I'll be pre ordering ;)
 
It is a given that pre-orders and overall initial sales will be high. However, the future success will depend more on how many have buyers regret and also the answers to some of the unanswered question like battery life and usefulness away from the phone etc.
 
MozMan68 said:
So let me get this straight, you want the Apple watch to REPLACE your phone?

Because that is basically what you are saying...you want to leave your phone at home, wear the watch and have the watch still send you texts and receive calls for you, right?

Wake up.

It's an accessory to the phone. The phone will sell more watches and people who really want the watch will buy a phone....and neither either powerful enough or sized properly to do the job of both properly.
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Exactly. That is what I would like to see for the future.
I appreciate of course there would be limitations given the size of the device, and I would live with those when I chose to only have the watch with me. But for notifications, reading text messages, writing a short reply and being able to take of give some short phone calls if I needed (and that would be rare) I would want a future watch to be able to do it.
Limited yes, I accept it, but yes, that's what I would like.
 
Piggie said:
Well, if it uses WiFi to connect to your phone, then it could use public WiFi to become much more independent and connect to your iCloud... No ?
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Maybe.

It needs an iPhone for the apps to work, that's all we know.

----------
Night Spring said:
I think we all know that this generation Apple Watch is an accessory to the phone. That doesn't make it unreasonable for people to want a stand-alone Watch that isn't an accessory to the phone, does it?
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Why would I want a phone that doesn't let me make phone calls in private? Or has such a small screen that doesn't let me type a message? Or would have such a small battery because of the size?
 
Tanegashima said:
Why would I want a phone that doesn't let me make phone calls in private? Or has such a small screen that doesn't let me type a message? Or would have such a small battery because of the size?
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There's this nice big park right next to my apartment. Something the size of the Watch would be perfect for taking with me when I go for a walk. Especially nice in the summer, when I'm wearing light clothes that don't have big pockets for the iPhone. For making phone calls, I'd use a Bluetooth headset. Sending texts can be done either with speech recognitions or sending voice messages.
 
Night Spring said:
There's this nice big park right next to my apartment. Something the size of the Watch would be perfect for taking with me when I go for a walk. Especially nice in the summer, when I'm wearing light clothes that don't have big pockets for the iPhone. For making phone calls, I'd use a Bluetooth headset. Sending texts can be done either with speech recognitions or sending voice messages.
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Because the iPhone is SUCH a big phone, isn't it?

Huge!
 
Tanegashima said:
Don't you have two pockets?

Or if you use a skirt, a purse, or a fanny pack?
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Some of my summer clothes have no pockets, or the pockets are too small to hold a phone.

And yes, right now what I do is take a purse -- but if the Watch were an independent device, then I wouldn't have to bring a purse just to go for a walk in the park.

Sure, it's not such a big deal to grab a purse, but I'm just saying an independent Watch could make things a bit more convenient. After all, cell phones themselves are just convenience, too. I mean, what was wrong with waiting until you got home, or found a pay phone to make a phone call? People got by with doing that for decades before the cell phone was invented.
 
Night Spring said:
Some of my summer clothes have no pockets, or the pockets are too small to hold a phone.

And yes, right now what I do is take a purse -- but if the Watch were an independent device, then I wouldn't have to bring a purse just to go for a walk in the park.

Sure, it's not such a big deal to grab a purse, but I'm just saying an independent Watch could make things a bit more convenient. After all, cell phones themselves are just convenience, too. I mean, what was wrong with waiting until you got home, or found a pay phone to make a phone call? People got by with doing that for decades before the cell phone was invented.
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Agree 100%
 
Night Spring said:
Some of my summer clothes have no pockets, or the pockets are too small to hold a phone.

And yes, right now what I do is take a purse -- but if the Watch were an independent device, then I wouldn't have to bring a purse just to go for a walk in the park.

Sure, it's not such a big deal to grab a purse, but I'm just saying an independent Watch could make things a bit more convenient. After all, cell phones themselves are just convenience, too. I mean, what was wrong with waiting until you got home, or found a pay phone to make a phone call? People got by with doing that for decades before the cell phone was invented.
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You always need to carry a wallet with id, and coins for that payphone.
 
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