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Gonna be a bust?
- Thread starter RodDavies
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Not that anecdotal evidence means anything, but even some of my hardcore Android friends are lusting after it.
I in the "sell like wild at first, then drop off" camp. But I'm certain it'll sell well enough to justify continuing to refine the product, and in a couple generations it'll be good enough to really take off. Not a home-run product, but at least a solid base hit, maybe even a double.
Ok, I see. It's easy to misjudge around here it appears, sorry.
Now when it comes to watch and to the usage hours, I guess it all depends how you use it. Do you see yourself interacting 4 hours a day with the watch screen? Personally I don't. I had the fit gear from Samsung for several months. Surely it wasn't a slick smartwatch but what I did find useful about it is being notified of calls or texts or emails and stuff, from the wrist while my phone was in my pocket, on the charge, in the other room etc. That gear fit I had to charge it every 2 days and a half, much better then the apple watch but surely it did lot less. However, I am intending to use Apple watch the same way. For notifications and workout in general.
The very front page of this site. Rumours for sure but thems the numbers being thrown around.
Well...
Even assuming a 75% markup, they aren't even making them for that little. Sooooooo.... I'd love to hear your justification for them selling at a loss.
Samsung Gear 2 is $300 & I think all could agree that it doesn't seem to have a higher bill of materials than Apple Watch and Samsung is known to sell at slimmer margins, so I'm honestly assuming your comment is more wistful than logic driven. You may as well have said "they should of made (sic) it the price of a pack of gum"... that has equal grounding in reality.
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Not sure that is a valid analogy...
http://cdn1.appleinsider.com/appletv-140228-1.jpg
I feel like this fashionable health accessory will also be used heavily for popularizing new iOS 8 features like Voice Text over iMessage & location sharing... and in tandem with HomeKit for controlling all of your home automation... and with Apple Pay sans removing phone from pocket or purse, and w/ the next Apple TV even more integrated than the current Remote app that Apple showcased, and as a silent GPS for both driving & walking directions with the targeted taps indicating when & which way to turn, and I actually feel like even the custom emojis & Morse Code like taps will be popular.
I'm not sure what gen 2 will bring, but to me- this is a solid product already.
Are those friends that have already bought ones like the gear and other android smart watches? I can see the
Watch doing a lot of damage to the existing smartwatch's marketshares, but I still don't see it expanding much beyond the people who already bought a smartwatch, and the people who think the current ones are cool but won't buy them because they aren't an apple product. It's an apple product so it'll sell well at first, but I really don't see it being a big seller for long. Smartphones took off because they allowed us to cut down on the number of devices we needed to have with us, and the watch seems to be going against that.
Are those friends that have already bought ones like the gear and other android smart watches? I can see the
It's an apple product so it'll sell well at first, but I really don't see it being a big seller for long. Smartphones took off because they allowed us to cut down on the number of devices we needed to have with us, and the watch seems to be going against that.
Please remember, it's not going to do "a lot of damage" to many other SmartWatch brands, as this only works with an iPhone.
The question is, and we don't have figures....
How many current Smartwatch owners are also iPhone owners ?
Wait, why are you asking that? What about people like me, who are iPhone owners, but don't own a Smartwatch yet, but plan on buying the Apple Watch?
Nope. One friend in particular who's brought it up a couple times received a free Pebble through her former employer as a gift a couple years back, but I don't think she ever actively used it.Are those friends that have already bought ones like the gear and other android smart watches? I can see the
It's an apple product so it'll sell well at first, but I really don't see it being a big seller for long. Smartphones took off because they allowed us to cut down on the number of devices we needed to have with us, and the watch seems to be going against that.
My friends like to think of themselves as fairly computer-savvy and give me crap for being their token Apple-using friend, but they don't know crap about mobile tech. I know more about their Android phones than they do. I don't know if any of them even know what a Galaxy Gear or Moto 360 is.
Because he said:
"I can see the Watch doing a lot of damage to the existing smartwatch's marketshares, but I still don't see it expanding much beyond the people who already bought a smartwatch,"
Almost forgetting that it can't do THAT much damage, esp outside of USA.
Almost as if he was forgetting you need to be an iPhone owner 1st.
I'd like to see the numbers (don't suppose there are any) that show which phones current smartwatch owners own.
Most current modern Smartwatches are AndroidWear based, so that kinda might imply that the majority of them may well not be iPhone users.
Hence the Apple watch probably is not going to impact that much as the Apple watch is pretty useless for android phone users, which is a LOT, and the vast majority in quite a few countries.
I'm just pointing that out, as some seem to have forgotten, right now, this is basically just an iPhone accessory.
I think we all expect that will change in time when newer models come out each year
Well, let's suppose that, say, right now there are a 100 smartwatch owners, and most of them are Android phone owners.
Now, let's say when the Apple watch comes out, 200 iPhone owners go out and buy them.
All of a sudden, Apple owns 2/3 of the smartwatch market, and the other smartwatches have gone from being 100% of the market to 1/3.
That could be seen as Apple watch doing damage to smartwatch market shares.
Of course, above scenario requires big expansion of smartwatches to people who don't own one yet.
Now, let's suppose that currently there are a 100 smartwatch owners, but 50 of them are iPhone owners and 50 of them are Android owners.
Say, the 50 iPhone owners all abandon their current smartwatch, and buy the Apple watch.
In this case, the non-Apple smartwatch market drops by 50%, again causing considerable damage.
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To be honest.
I and most others are not convinced there is a Smartwatch market YET!
In time I think there will be, or rather there will be a computing wearable market.
If that's a old fashioned watch type device or something far more useful and futuristic we yet don't know.
Right now we are screwed when it comes to screen and battery.
We don't have the technology to make a nice usable wearable screen, and we don't have the technology to make a battery small enough to power it for any decent length of time
Am sure we'll get there, but not convinced a pretend watch is really the long term answer for the future of wearable computing due to it's inherent limitations.
I and most others are not convinced there is a Smartwatch market YET!
In time I think there will be, or rather there will be a computing wearable market.
If that's a old fashioned watch type device or something far more useful and futuristic we yet don't know.
Right now we are screwed when it comes to screen and battery.
We don't have the technology to make a nice usable wearable screen, and we don't have the technology to make a battery small enough to power it for any decent length of time
Am sure we'll get there, but not convinced a pretend watch is really the long term answer for the future of wearable computing due to it's inherent limitations.
Lol....
Really????!!!
I started my post with the words "assuming a 75% markup..."
Apologies for assuming that you were familiar with the definition of that word. =P
Seriously, though... as most would be able to figure out on their own: I do NOT have insider info on their bill of materials. I was using my knowledge of Apple's and Samsung's PAST history of markups to make a logic based GUESS of whether Apple could fulfill your pipe dream of selling Apple Watch for $199, whilst still maintaining an acceptable profit margin.
Let me know if you need any more in depth recaps or explanations of my posts. I try for clarity.
Agreed. I'm not convinced yet whether the Apple watch will be useful or not. But it's the first wearable device I'm tempted to try. With all other smartwatches and other wearable devices out there right now, I just look at them, consider their features vs drawbacks, and go, "Nah, maybe in a few more years when things improve a bit more."
I really think, in some way, and it's not clear yet, some in eye screen may be the end result.
Be that a super super updated Google Glass or something that beams into your eye or something.
I can't see anyway of getting a nice screen to use otherwise.
No one is going to want to carry a large screen.
very tricky to know.
To me, the problem with wearable screens is the input method. I have a speech impediment, so speech recognition isn't going to work for me.
Micorosoft's Holo-something glasses they just announced looks promising as a wearable screen, but if I need to carry a keyboard to use it, might as well carry a tablet.
Rumors based on what?
I would say it lasts 24 under heavy usage.
And it's true, because I said it.
Market share? Too simplistic. Sales are sales. Whether they make 5% of the market or 50%. All the
Watch will do is add smartwatch users. Adding users grows the market. Growing the market means it becomes more mainstream. That results in more sales for everyone. Apple tying the watch to an iPhone really only helps the other smartwatch manufacturers at this point. They won't lose many sales to Apple, because Apple has already limited their customer base to people who wouldn't buy another smartwatch to begin with. Apple legitimizes the market. If Samsung sold 100 before the Apple watch, maybe the sell 95 after the first year. In three, they are selling 300 because the market is now considered legitimate by the masses.As someone who follows Apple, I figure you would understand how little market share really means.
I do understand market share isn't everything. I was just throwing out hypotheticals about market share because someone else brought up market share first.
I do hope Apple watch makes wearable computing mainstream, like you say.
If they don't, I would suspect it won't become mainstream for some time. No one has the cache and influence with the mainstream that Apple does. If they can't make wearables desirable, I don't suppose anyone can at the moment.
You have to understand, when you hear the specs, the phone is very underwhelming. Especially compared to phones like the LG G3 (4k screen resolution) and Note 4, BUT, when you SEE it all in action, how well everything works together, how good the screen looks, the camera, just everything, it's a huge difference from reading specs on a piece of paper.
I agree, if the features in the current Apple Watch fail to take off it'll probably be a while.
The missing features that people seem to want - more battery, GPS, its own cell radio/wifi, more memory might be worth figuring out but it'll be awhile before I think we'd get a device that would check all those boxes and still be small enough to wear as a watch.