You don't understand demand for iPhones. The bulk of iPhones are sold in the first quarter of the year after their release. Few new iPhones are sold in the last quarter of the year because everyone is waiting for the new version.
If they're going to sell 50 million iPhone Xs, they need to be able to produce ~25 million of them by December. They need to be producing over 750,000 iPhone Xs per day.
If they are currently producing no iPhone Xs per day or even 10,000 iPhone Xs per day, there is going to be 1 iPhone X for every 75 people that want to buy one.
Apple is on schedule for the most disastrous launch of an Apple product ever.
You take what KGI reported for pure gold? The same guy who said that texting and calling would not be supported on the Apple Watch? And this guy here in this article without any track record?
I think we have to take all of this with a grain of salt. KGI knows a lot but he also gets a lot wrong. 10'000 pcs are not even a trail run. With 4 SKUs you would be looking at 2500 pcs per day per SKU. The other guy stated that they haven't even started, so he is clearly saying that KGI was wrong. So both reports contradict each other.
The only facts we have are;
- we know it's difficult to produce, like any other new flagship phone.
- the launch is later than expected, but that does NOT mean that there are difficulties with production and more of an intentional move by apple. But that is also not guaranteed.
-
The launch will be happening in 55 countries. To compare: The iPhone 7 was initially launched with a first wave containing 28 countries. This means that this will be the
biggest launch of an iPhone ever.
So there are several possibilities here;
- Apple is producing the phone as we speak and will have plenty in stock on launch. -> Unlikely, but not impossible based on the large first wave.
- Apple is not producing the phone and they will run into the worst launch ever with people ordering on the 27.10 at 9.02 European time and receiving 2018 as a delivery date. -> seems like the most unlikely case to me, given the large first wave, Apple's dependency on Q1 and holiday sales and only having to "reports" backing this theory up.
- Apple will have a pretty normal launch. We will have some initial stock to order for launch day, and it'll soon go up to 1-2 weeks, then 4-5 weeks and stay there until January. -> Most likely because of my reasons above and the fact that other releases were similar to that.