John Gruber wants the iPhone X to start at $1500

[BigMcGuire]

This is the flip side of what I said about not assuming that people can't afford something just because they feel it's overpriced.

Are we adults here? Have we worked and lived in the real world? People need to stop making assumptions about the financial situations of total strangers. An extra $63/month might be a big deal for someone who is already paying a mortgage/rent, car payments, insurance, utilities, credit cards, and other loans each month.

<clears throat repeatedly> <steps up on pedestal> You can only make assumptions about others when you're financially well off! That makes you better (aka smarter) than everyone else. </steps down> </attempt at sarcasm> - definitely not me. lol. My wife's + my (2x) $44.xx/mo is definitely felt!

 

[The_Machine]

Yep, you can buy the cheaper iPhone if you can't afford the more expensive one.

The cheaper iPhone is expected to be based off the iPhone 7 which at that point will be a 4 year old design. People are bored with it. In terms of the fast moving smartphone space it's a very dated looking design with huge bezels compared to the competition. Many people, including myself, accepted that Apple went against its established tic-tock release schedule with the 7 under the assumption that Apple was planning something big for us in 2017 to make it worth the wait.

I assure you that no one thought that what we were waiting for was going to cost $731 more than an iPhone 7 Plus. More expensive then we have seen from Apple with the iPhone platform to this point? Sure. Not one thousand five hundred dollars expensive.

If you can't see why "just buy the cheaper iPhone" is a crappy response to give loyal iPhone users in this case then that's on you. There is a huge amount of context here at play. Everyone's been anticipating this redesign for a very long time and will not be satisfied with yet another phone based on the iPhone 6's design. Telling these same people that if they want the redesign that have waited years for that they need to drop $1500 on it would be a disaster.

Gruber's out of his mind to think this would be a good idea. I don't buy for a minute that Apple would go down this road.

 

[JulesJam]

The cheaper iPhone is expected to be based off the iPhone 7 which at that point will be a 4 year old design. People are bored with it. In terms of the fast moving smartphone space it's a very dated looking design with huge bezels compared to the competition.

The only 2 manufacturers producing phones with the edge to edge displays are Samsung and LG - the 2 companies producing the AMOLED edge to edge panels.

So it's not that fast moving of a market. You have the 2 companies who produce the AMOLED panels putting them in their flagship phones. Its the S8/S8+ and G6 that have them. That's it.

If you can't see why "just buy the cheaper iPhone" is a crappy response to give loyal iPhone users

You aren't grasping fundamental concepts here. Apple is a business not a social club and their goal is to extract maximum profits from the consumer.

You will still want it even if you can't afford it. There will be high demand and it will sell. Those who can't afford it and want it will either wait to buy it used next year, go in debt or save to buy it. And if the condition of their current phone is such that they can't wait, they will buy the iP7s instead.

There will not be a huge defection of iPhone users buying G6's and S8's due to the edge to edge displays. Not gonna happen. And the Note 8 is going to be at least as expensive as the iPhone Edition so that won't be an option for them either. Plus the Note 8 is going to be freakin' huge and the fingerprint sensor is going to be on the back by the camera again, albeit separated by the flash this time.

it is also true that spiking the price just cause some can afford it doesn't make it a good choice.

If people buy it and Apple profits off the product, it is a good choice. As long as the iPhone Edition is priced so that the upper middle class can afford it, and $1500 is within that range, it will sell. They may not be buying it for their teenagers any longer but that will only increase the appeal.

iSheep will not be jumping to Android if they can't afford the iPhone Edition. They will just wait to buy it used, go in debt or save to buy it. Or buy the iP7s.

7s and 7s+ will be a choice, but they'll feature the same design for the fourth year in a row, still with big bezels, they can't expect huge sales from those models.

It depends on if the camera improves and if they have glass backs and wireless/fast charging or not. If they do, I think they will sell well. iSheep always say they don't care about a feature that Android has when the iPhone doesn't have it yet. Then when they get it, they pee themselves with delight, lol!

Wireless and fast charging are da bomb. So dang convenient, I don't even have to think about charging my phone. I just set it down on the charger when I come home or on the nightstand before I go to sleep. No fiddling with a cord in the middle of the night if I want to look at my phone and then just set it back on the charger. And if there ever is an issue, 15 minutes on a fast charger and I am back to 25% charge.
[doublepost=1499359330][/doublepost]

$1,500 would be the equivalent of $63/month

It shouldn't put you in the poor-house

Exactly - if you can't afford $2/day for your hand held computer/phone/camera all in one device, you are already in the poor house.

 

[craigio85]

The cheaper iPhone is expected to be based off the iPhone 7 which at that point will be a 4 year old design. People are bored with it. In terms of the fast moving smartphone space it's a very dated looking design with huge bezels compared to the competition. Many people, including myself, accepted that Apple went against its established tic-tock release schedule with the 7 under the assumption that Apple was planning something big for us in 2017 to make it worth the wait.

I assure you that no one thought that what we were waiting for was going to cost $731 more than an iPhone 7 Plus. More expensive then we have seen from Apple with the iPhone platform to this point? Sure. Not one thousand five hundred dollars expensive.

If you can't see why "just buy the cheaper iPhone" is a crappy response to give loyal iPhone users in this case then that's on you. There is a huge amount of context here at play. Everyone's been anticipating this redesign for a very long time and will not be satisfied with yet another phone based on the iPhone 6's design. Telling these same people that if they want the redesign that have waited years for that they need to drop $1500 on it would be a disaster.

Gruber's out of his mind to think this would be a good idea. I don't buy for a minute that Apple would go down this road.

Exactly.

I maintain, though, I haven't seen any convincing leaks that have made me think "yup, the iPhone 7s is definitely a thing". I genuinely don't think it is - it just seems to be a widely accepted assumption based on tradition. I think we're looking at a launch of one new iPhone model, the 8.

If it ever did turn out to be true that the killer features were reserved for some sort of exclusive model costing more than a MacBook, i'm out. I could easily afford it, but I'd deem it a frivolous waste of too much money.

 

[JulesJam]

I could easily afford it, but I'd deem it a frivolous waste of too much money.

It depends on what you mean by easily afford. If you made $2M per year, you wouldn't think twice about paying $1500 for a smartphone.

But if you make $200k per year and have a mortgage, 2 kids to put through college, a stay at home spouse, drive a nice car and save for retirement, then although you make a good living, you can't afford it.

 

[craigio85]

It depends on what you mean by easily afford. If you made $2M per year, you wouldn't think twice about paying $1500 for a smartphone.

But if you make $200k per year and have a mortgage, 2 kids to put through college, a stay at home spouse, drive a nice car and save for retirement, then although you make a good living, you can't afford it.

Sorry but you're wrong.

My income is sufficient for me to be able to put £500 each month into savings and I have enough savings to buy fifty £1300 phones if I wanted to. I'd simply be making a rational decision that the cost doesn't equal the benefit.

 

[michael9891]

There's been no leaks of parts or features (that I know of) for the 7s & 7s+ models. So maybe the one with slim bezels we keep seeing will be in place of those as well. But different versions of them. They broke tradition with the 7 not being a proper redesign, so who knows.


One around the price of the current 7+ and then maybe a higher spec 'premium' model. If that were the case, maybe it would satisfy everyone. It would certainly satisfy more people than releasing a redesign out of reach for many.

People are just expressing opinions and thoughts on here, don't think there's any need to get personal and make assumptions on how someone lives their life.

 

[The_Machine]

It depends on what you mean by easily afford. If you made $2M per year, you wouldn't think twice about paying $1500 for a smartphone.

But if you make $200k per year and have a mortgage, 2 kids to put through college, a stay at home spouse, drive a nice car and save for retirement, then although you make a good living, you can't afford it.

What is it exactly you envision Apple providing the public in this theoretical $1500 iPhone? I'm specifically asking what you think this extra $731 of wiggle room to play with would allow them to design and build into this iPhone that couldn't be achieved at a price point more in line with today's top of the line smartphones.

AMOLED? Sorry, Samsung has shown that you don't need to price your phone at $1500 to give consumers this with a near edge to edge display.

Better camera? I guess. Depends on how much you believe cameras are being held back on smartphones due to the parts being expensive versus the inherent limitations that the size of the lense (and other components) you can fit into a smartphone. Building great cameras into cellphones is cutting edge tech, but I wouldn't be so sure that throwing money at the problem would drastically speed up the technological advances being made in the area. Apple's already putting bleeding edge tech in each new iPhone they release yearly as it is.

Faster processor? Maybe. This is another area that Apple seems to already be building in some of the most advanced components available on the market with each generation at the current price ceilings.

More Ram? Sure. Apple could theoretically triple the amount of Ram (for example) in this new high end iPhone and tweak iOS to take advantage of it. I'm not really sure Apple's current high end iPhones are all that Ram constrained, but no reason they couldn't do this.

So what else? Exotic materials? Apple Pencil compatibility to make it a direct Note competitor? What else? What is it you think Apple is gonna give you here for that extra $731 other than a larger monthly payment on your instalment plan?

If you think the current price points are so drastically holding Apple back that adding a new tier that costs an extra $731 is needed then you should be able to easily articulate why.

Remember that anything along these lines would need to be looked at from a cost to benefit ratio.

 

[craigio85]

There's been no leaks of parts or features (that I know of) for the 7s & 7s+ models. So maybe the one with slim bezels we keep seeing will be in place of those as well. But different versions of them. They broke tradition with the 7 not being a proper redesign, so who knows.

That, and the fact there's virtually no logical reason to have brand new versions in the 7s and 7s Plus.

The 8 is expected to have a display size very similar to the current 7 Plus and also the dual camera setup - so it should have both of the selling points of the 7 Plus. Going on the assumption the 8 will retail in a similar price bracket to the current 7 range (which I'm virtually certain it will), there would be no logical reason to opt for a 7s Plus unless you preferred the design - but that's a tiny market. Why would Apple waste valuable production-line capacity (not to mention the cost of development) on two new phones that comparatively few consumers would opt for?

 

[itsmilo]

Don't ever undertestimate the horrible decisions made by poor people.

but its only 1 dollar if i finance it up until my childrens 16th bday!

That, and the fact there's virtually no logical reason to have brand new versions in the 7s and 7s Plus.

The 8 is expected to have a display size very similar to the current 7 Plus and also the dual camera setup - so it should have both of the selling points of the 7 Plus. Going on the assumption the 8 will retail in a similar price bracket to the current 7 range (which I'm virtually certain it will), there would be no logical reason to opt for a 7s Plus unless you preferred the design - but that's a tiny market. Why would Apple waste valuable production-line capacity (not to mention the cost of development) on two new phones that comparatively few consumers would opt for?

to charge an additional 100 bucks for an update which used to come naturally while maintaining the price points of past years. just look what happene to the iPad and its "Pro" line. instead of releasing an iPad Air 3 at the usual price point they were able to sell a "cheaper already dated" version for the price you used to get the "new" model for.

i predict an iPhone 7S / iPhone 7S Plus to start with 64 GB at the current price point and an iPhone Pro to start with an additional 100 bucks and only 32 GB (the first iPad Pro started with 32 GB right?) this way people may be tempted to get the 7S cuz it is "cheaper" with yet more storage OR have people choose the even more expensive iPhone Pro version with 128 GB cuz 32 GB clearly isnt enough but for people that dont want to spent more

 

[44267547]

It depends on what you mean by easily afford. If you made $2M per year, you wouldn't think twice about paying $1500 for a smartphone.

But if you make $200k per year and have a mortgage, 2 kids to put through college, a stay at home spouse, drive a nice car and save for retirement, then although you make a good living, you can't afford it.

Nice assertion and you're math is wrong. The amount of consumers purchasing iPhones based income isn't equivalent to generating 2 Million in revenue on an annual basis. Also, Your math doesn't even take into consideration joint income, savings and or what someone can afford based on a $1500.00 iPhone.

If someone can justify spending XYZ on an iPhone based on whatever they make annually, it won't stop someone from Purchasing it. Not because it's just an iPhone, because they made the conscious decision to do so at their over all cost to benefit.

 

[sfkeepay]

Don't ever undertestimate the horrible decisions made by poor people.

Occasionally true. Additionally, never underestimate the poor decisions made by privileged people, laboring under misconceptions and stereotypes about "the poor".



(If I have misunderstood your intentions or your message, I sincerely apologize.)



**Remember to be a good job creator - step over the homeless, not on them. - (Not) Ayn Rand**

 

[craigio85]

but its only 1 dollar if i finance it up until my childrens 16th bday!



to charge an additional 100 bucks for an update which used to come naturally while maintaining the price points of past years. just look what happene to the iPad and its "Pro" line. instead of releasing an iPad Air 3 at the usual price point they were able to sell a "cheaper already dated" version for the price you used to get the "new" model for.

i predict an iPhone 7S / iPhone 7S Plus to start with 64 GB at the current price point and an iPhone Pro to start with an additional 100 bucks and only 32 GB (the first iPad Pro started with 32 GB right?) this way people may be tempted to get the 7S cuz it is "cheaper" with yet more storage OR have people choose the even more expensive iPhone Pro version with 128 GB cuz 32 GB clearly isnt enough but for people that dont want to spent more

Good point, but it doesn't sway my opinion on the matter.

The same result can be achieved if Apple introduce the iPhone 8 with a £100 price bump over the current range. Then rather than drop the price of the existing 7/7 Plus, they leave it as it is now, as it would remain the cheaper option despite no reduction in its price tag.

There's just too many things that would make a 7s line a fussy mess. Take colour. An iPhone 6s user opting for a 7s over an 8 would, rightly, expect the current array of colour and storage options. Which means Apple manufacturing the 7s range in four main colours, three storage options - twice over for the Plus as well and alongside the new 8.

 

[g35]

John Gruber sounds like the kind of guy who urgently needs a swift kick to the nuts.

Pretty sure if it was an Apple employee who did this, he'd say, "thank you, sir, may I have another?"

 

[Cole Slaw]

Pretty sure if it was an Apple employee who did this, he'd say, "thank you, sir, may I have another?"

Haha, right.

 

[The_Machine]

Pretty sure if it was an Apple employee who did this, he'd say, "thank you, sir, may I have another?"

Gruber's a great writer and I usually enjoy his takes, but on occasion he says things that sound like he was just dropped on his head.

Not sure if anyone noticed, but he has done a bit of goal post moving on this top over the last couple days. On Twitter and his blog he's now positioning it to "$1200 to $1500." Seems like even he doesn't have confidence in what he originally said.

 

[blairh]

Not sure if anyone noticed, but he has done a bit of goal post moving on this top over the last couple days. On Twitter and his blog he's now positioning it to "$1200 to $1500." Seems like even he doesn't have confidence in what he originally said.

He's also getting a lot of backlash regarding this statement (as one would imagine) on Twitter, and I'm sure countless emails too. I bet he will either address this in a new post on his site or discuss it on an upcoming Talk Show podcast. There are a variety of reasons why a $1500 iPhone would be a mess for Apple up against the new 7S and 7S Plus.

 

[Glockworkorange]

John Gruber sounds like the kind of guy who urgently needs a swift kick to the nuts.

Gruber is a snide ass.

 

[blairh]

He's also getting a lot of backlash regarding this statement (as one would imagine) on Twitter, and I'm sure countless emails too. I bet he will either address this in a new post on his site or discuss it on an upcoming Talk Show podcast. There are a variety of reasons why a $1500 iPhone would be a mess for Apple up against the new 7S and 7S Plus.

Just as predicted.

https://daringfireball.net/2017/07/speculation_on_new_iphone_pricing

(Also hi John, I know you are reading this. Haha.)

 

[gorkt]

Geez. I took his statement as “it would be really interesting to see what a $1500 iphone would look like. Me too! What sort of features, materials and technology would it have?

 

[KeanosMagicHat]

Just as predicted.

https://daringfireball.net/2017/07/speculation_on_new_iphone_pricing

(Also hi John, I know you are reading this. Haha.)

I'm glad he took some time to illustrate his thought process, because the glibness of his previous comment just came across like pure greed.

He makes some decent points, but interestingly for me in the second last paragraph of his post he says this:

On the other hand, without question, this “new premium tier” strategy that I’m suggesting poses its own significant risk for Apple. The mere existence of the new edge-to-edge OLED iPhone could dampen excitement for the iPhone 7S and 7S Plus, leading to a decrease in overall sales. “I don’t want a 7S because it’s boring, but I don’t want to spend $1,200 on an iPhone Pro/Edition because that’s too much for a phone, no matter how nice it is.” That sentiment could be trouble for Apple.

This represents about 70% of my thoughts on the risks associated with this potential change in strategy and coming so late in his article, he doesn't really counter these points at all.

 

[nutriousmitten]

Gruber knows exactly what he is doing, and that is floating out some trial balloons on behalf/bequest of the marketing folks in Cupertino. Getting an idea of the price elasticity of consumers, if maybe not for this year but next year, is valuable info for Apple that can only be measured when a third party source floats it out there.

Gruber’s rep may take a bit of short term hit with fan backlash, but the pats on the back through the perks he will get rewarded with from Apple (ie some inside info to make him look like an expert insider at some point down the road on another product) for doing this, will all make it worth it.

 

[thadoggfather]

On the other hand, without question, this “new premium tier” strategy that I’m suggesting poses its own significant risk for Apple. The mere existence of the new edge-to-edge OLED iPhone could dampen excitement for the iPhone 7S and 7S Plus, leading to a decrease in overall sales. “I don’t want a 7S because it’s boring, but I don’t want to spend $1,200 on an iPhone Pro/Edition because that’s too much for a phone, no matter how nice it is.” That sentiment could be trouble for Apple.
–

I like what he says here ^

That could easily be the consumer predicament: 7s/7s plus isn’t worth the hassle of upgrading over previous gen for a 4th go round of same design...

And 8 prices could scare people away. On top of being not easy to find.,

Leaving consumers empty handed this year and Apple without the sales they expected

–
I don’t agree with “if there are iPad Pros and MacBook Pros why not iPhone Pros” – I don’t think anyone is arguing with a more premium IPhone beyond the expected cadence, its the price that determines how well this idea will mesh with people.

though I do agree with his point many people may even consider iPhone currently more pro than any pro tablet, just having a computer in their pocket and a camera anywhere they are as opposed to premeditated situations, or conceding to looking absolutely ridiculous at a concert wielding a slab of aluminum to take videos

Also, iPhone utility and relative perceived value is demonstrated with yearly upgrades, vs most people upgrading iPads at a slower rate

Back to the ‘Pro’ thing–

There is TONs of criticism iPad Pro isn’t pro, Or a laptop replacement, just a really nice spec’d tablet with a really nice OS, iOS, but also a double edged sword with its limitations

There is also TONs of criticism of MacBook ‘Pro’ now more than ever with a gimmicky touch bar and doing away with legacy ports a lot of pros still rely heavily on (clarification: I love my nTB and iPad Pro, just speaking from the general climate)

So if one doesn’t want a Pro laptop, you’re stuck with a throttled mobile Pros (Core M or M3 now, different tier than Skylake/Kabylake for sure) and one port for power and data.

If one doesn’t want a Pro iPad, you’re stuck with Air 1.5 with A9 Proc (in terms of body and screen)

If one doesn’t want a Pro iPhone, they are “stuck” with a P3 LED screen? I think most consumers will be ok with this,

OLED seems like a screen aficionado desire, imo. And I want one badly don’t get me wrong. I just don’t think I’m an average Apple consumer either

I think the most problematic thing is that Apple HAS created pent up demand for something new design wise with iPhone, after the 7 design was almost identical to the 6/6s and releasing an expected 7s with the same design too. So they are playing a risky game pricing this thing out of most people’s price thresholds, even factoring in the expected Apple tax,etc

 

[Puonti]

There are always people with iPhones older than previous year's model, who are looking for an upgrade. A 7S / 7S Plus following Apple's usual upgrade pattern will be enticing to many, regardless of what else is on offer at a higher price point. Even on these forums there are people who don't buy the non-S models simply because the S is a refinement of some design change and polishes that design to the very best it can be. Plenty do not care about that at all, but simply follow some other pattern of skipping certain years. 7S / 7S Plus will land nicely on many of these upgrade slots regardless of this year's iPhone lineup.

As for whatever else might be in that lineup, there are always people who are teetering on the edge of jumping ship, looking for something outside of Apple's offerings to try out or return to. If anything, a "special" model of iPhone with limited availability is an opportunity to entice them. It just becomes a matter of how reckless they are with their money, or how financially prepared or well-off due to whatever reason. This goes doubly for those who simply have to have the perceived "best" Apple device each year. Then there are those who are provided devices by their employers.

Plenty of takers in any case.

 

[Cartaphilus]

These takes on Gruber are so bad. He's one of the best writers re: Apple products. So he made a comment on something he'd like to see, which may or may not happen. Big deal?

I kinda get his point. Give Apple, with their resources, the power to create a device at a price the market has never seen, which will inevitably be packed with things that push technology forward, and see how the market responds. I'd guess the market, the market being us, would respond by opening our wallets.

This, finally. Gruber was NOT saying that he hoped Apple would charge $1500 for any version of the iPhone that is likely to be released later this year, but rather that he would like to see what Apple is capable of delivering if it weren't as constrained by perceived price ceilings. Perhaps Apple could deliver a phone that provided functions that were celebrated by users, but not for a price the market has already proven it would pay. Gruber is just saying Apple shouldn't just assume that there isn't sufficient market demand for a $1500 phone, no matter what it can do. There are lots of issues, of course, the most obvious being that developing such a super-phone would have to be financed before the market demonstrated that enough units could be sold at a profitable price. Nonetheless, Gruber is certainly entitled to encourage Apple to demonstrate an ability to out-innovate its competitors, even if it has to raise the price of its flagship models to recoup its investment in developing its capabilities. Customer surveys aren't going to be enough; as Henry Ford famously said, "if I had asked my customers what they wanted, they would have told me, 'a faster horse'".

Thanks for your insight, Cryates.