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KGI: Improved iPhone X Shipping Estimates Due to Better-Than-Expected Production, Not Weak Demand
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There's a world of difference between intelligent use of large amounts of information, which is what Kuo and Wall Street analysts do, and cherry picking one or two (or even a few) facts and trying to fit a narrative around them. This should be obvious.
As for your "including you" attempted swipe, I assumed nothing. I commented on what people here are are doing. That was a statement of fact. I like to stick with facts and then make deductive inferences when possible. Inductive if not. Half assed conjecture, especially to fuel a biased perspective, not so much.
the notch is a workaround and looks very unnatural to the human eye. There is no defense in landscape mode for it. Do you watch tvs, use desktops, go to movies, etc, with a notch ???? It wouldn't be there if it didn't need to be for the unlocking. It's a compromise.
Which is perfectly reasonable. Unlike others who will either condemn or praise something without ever trying it.
Ive only seen one in the wild and the user said she was unsure if she was going to keep it. Anyone see any more users?
My friend has one but is going back to a plus, said screen is too small. I haven’t seen any in public at all
Know what those who don’t revise when presented with new info are called? I can understand how his intelligence and lack of ego might make some here insecure...
Well, if you two haven’t seen them then clearly all the hype is a hoax and they’re not selling any at all. They only exist in store displays and commercials. No one has ordered any or went to a store to buy one.
Don’t get your pitchforks out, but another day, another every iPhone X sold out at Apple stores across the US (besides California) at 9:47 PM ET. Those Cali phones will be gone before closing on the West Coast.
COMPLETELY green with new stock this morning, now all gone.
Just reporting facts here. Not claiming to have carrier data or actual numbers, but Apple Stores are sold out again.
COMPLETELY green with new stock this morning, now all gone.
Just reporting facts here. Not claiming to have carrier data or actual numbers, but Apple Stores are sold out again.
Apple stopped giving launch weekend numbers years ago. And since they predicted a record quarter that topped Wall Street’s expectations, their silence is positive news. If sales for the first 3 weeks were so bad that they no longer thought they would meet their expectations, their legal counsel would advise them to revise the guidance.
Now, it could be that 8+ is still selling better than expected, even after the X launch, though since they have similar price points, that wouldn’t be a disaster for Apple, either. However, the simpler explanation given that wait times have dropped about 1 week as each week passes is that supply was able to ramp up on schedule for a big wave of shipments in December, which makes sense given the holiday shopping season.
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My cousin and I both have the X and are keeping it.
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Wall Street disagrees with you.
Good points. I keep going back to it, but $87B disagrees with the naysayers too.
This article just confirms what Apple already knew about X production ramp when they guided for Q1.
Of course no on really “knows” for sure, but everything points to positive reception, demand, and production for iPhone X.
If we didn’t speculate a little, there would b no need for a discussion forum and we could all just wait for the numbers to come in. I feel our speculation is based on reasonable assumptions and facts we do know like guidance and demand at Apple stores.
And wow, their Q4 was absolutely stunning with 0 iPhone X sales and only 2 weeks of iPhone 8 and Watch 3. Absolutely incredible with almost no new products.
With Tim Cook in charge, no one will ever have trouble getting a new iPhone each year. Innovating Apple products, now that's a different story.
Apple said the 8 series had been the most popular from launch through the earnings call, which was 1 day before the X launch. What surprised Apple was the mix between the base 8 and the 8 Plus. It was skewed more heavily toward the Plus than they were expecting.
Ugh, the "NOTCH."
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LOL. No Borrowing. Just make sure you and your Financial Advisor both agree on the price to get out, and pay attention closely.
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Hey, that's "The Old Mac Guy's" line. Let's be original?
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I still doubt that we could buy one at the store (without ordering it online) before 2018....
In my case, I’m temporarily in Tokyo and if I buy it on the store, I get immediate tax free. If I order it online, not. Makes a big difference
In my case, I’m temporarily in Tokyo and if I buy it on the store, I get immediate tax free. If I order it online, not. Makes a big difference
I could have picked up a space gray 256 Friday morning while I was having my wife's and my phone looked at. I just couldn't do it.
Saying "this isn't just confirmation bias" doesn't mean you aren't guilty of it. What's really sad is that you don't realize you're doing it.
I won't waste my time "ticking off" problems—because I already did so in the other thread, in detail, and you chose to ignore them. For example, I explained how $87B guidance is perfectly consistent with a scenario involving a YOY quarterly decline in unit sales.
People who actually went to Wharton—or HBS, GSB, Booth, Sloan, or frankly even a top 30 business school—are able to critically analyze things. They're actually, well, intelligent. They also don't make rudimentary mistakes with respect to understanding the most elementary principles of corporate finance.
Most don't when it comes to defending Apple. It's so obvious in the responses.
Eh, people do it every day on all kinds of things. It's not unique to Apple at all.
And I guess if it weren't happening on both sides, well, these forums would be awfully desolate.
It would just be cool if we could stick to the facts and avoid nutty extrapolations. The X is a neat device that has generated tons of media hype, and it's virtually a lock that Apple will have YOY quarterly increases in revenue and gross profit. Beyond that...not a lot.
You’re overrating yourself and your responses to what I’ve said. I never said anything about unit sales or that $87b couldn’t be achieved with lower unit sales.
Your pivot to unit sales being th measure was your doing. They are going to sell more units in F2018 than last year and any unit sales softness will be due to production. Watch the guidance for Q2 as they catch up with demand for the X. Three phones versus 2 last year and 1 of the 3 is groundbreaking?
You got your dander up by I said AAPL is cheap by any measure and think you’re a finance guru because you have heard of PEG and other basic finance concepts that are available on any website. My high level point has always been there is zero valuation concern on a cheap stock like AAPL and you pointed it to being middle “of the pack” on other random measures. The pack includes what I see as univestable companies. I never agreed that a stock like BEBE that has traded literally below its cash to be a comparable stock. When I said Apple is cheap by any measure, I implied you have to compare Apples to Apples. Apple can’t be compared to GM or Ford. That’s the trouble with comparing everything on the same playing field.
You hate PE...I think it’s relevant. You said it’s not about earnings, it’s about cash. Kind of the same thing at the end of the day. You have to make money sometime. Apple is killing it there. No promises, doing it. Not Tesla.
I think you like to be the curmudgeon nitpicking and masquerading as a truth seeker, but you’re really just a hater and not very intelligent. You have no idea about thinking critically other than getting caught in the weeds when I’ve been nothing but high level. You were incredibly wrong on Buffett’s style too, but you criticize with such authority as to convince yourself it’s a legitimate point.
You and Aspirin boy ganged up and liked each other’s posts, but nothing was settled other than you pretending to know about analyzing companies only to say your work is proprietary.
I really don’t care what you think about my education, lol. My Wharton friends would laugh at your elementary analysis that literally every high school student can bang out with an internet connection. Psychology is so much more important than anything you’ve thrown out there. I know the numbers and I think about them at a high level. My conviction on AAPL only goes as long as I see them killing it. The minute the facts change, I change.
Like Buffett, I’m not thinking about unit sales for 1 quarter. I see a company making mountains of cash, producing products people love, growing services, enjoying an expanding MULTIPLE, growing eps, buying back $200b, growing their $260b cash position, and adding iOS devices every year.
You remain wrong on numerous points, as explained previously several times. One of us does finance (successfully) for a living, and one of us actually did go to a top 3 MBA program. (It ain't you.)
No one believes you. Just stop.
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I'm not anti-Apple. You're pro-Apple. Big difference.
You can say all you want about me , but I have objective measures on my side. Like the Sharpe ratio of the primary portfolio that I manage, which vastly exceeds that of any of the major benchmarks over the last four years. This is why I sure do love cold, hard numbers!
Apple is reasonably priced but not "cheap." I proved that with a large number of metrics and with an unbiased and standard framework to approach thinking about relative valuations. You had no reply.
You clearly haven't read about how Warren Buffett invests. You equate cash and earnings. You don't understand why people who really do fundamental analysis don't rely on PE. You talk about psychology yet clearly are not versed on the basics of behavioral finance. And you ignore the clear and convincing data showing that Apple's price is reasonable but not cheap.
Your insisting something over and over is analogous to a kid screaming, "Water boils at 50 degrees." Saying it doesn't make it so. Saying it more times doesn't make it so either.
And apparently you're mad that I demonstated all of this so clearly in the other thread, so you followed me here to this one. I'm flattered, I guess.
You can say all you want about me , but I have objective measures on my side. Like the Sharpe ratio of the primary portfolio that I manage, which vastly exceeds that of any of the major benchmarks over the last four years. This is why I sure do love cold, hard numbers!
Apple is reasonably priced but not "cheap." I proved that with a large number of metrics and with an unbiased and standard framework to approach thinking about relative valuations. You had no reply.
You clearly haven't read about how Warren Buffett invests. You equate cash and earnings. You don't understand why people who really do fundamental analysis don't rely on PE. You talk about psychology yet clearly are not versed on the basics of behavioral finance. And you ignore the clear and convincing data showing that Apple's price is reasonable but not cheap.
Your insisting something over and over is analogous to a kid screaming, "Water boils at 50 degrees." Saying it doesn't make it so. Saying it more times doesn't make it so either.
And apparently you're mad that I demonstated all of this so clearly in the other thread, so you followed me here to this one. I'm flattered, I guess.
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