Eagerly waiting for it since i 1st saw the news on Iphone X on FlashtechLOUD. Hope to get it before Christmas
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KGI: Improved iPhone X Shipping Estimates Due to Better-Than-Expected Production, Not Weak Demand
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Yesterday, I checked the App Store app and found iPhone X models available in 3 stores around me. I purchased and picked one up two hours later. So how is it that people who ordered in early November still have yet to receive theirs while I got mine on short notice without having to wait at all?
Ming Chi-Kuo of KGI needs to analyze the return rate of iPhone X’s that were sent back to carriers and Apple because people we’re not able to sell them on various outlets such as eBay. I’m sure that is a factor for improved shipping times as well.
How do I know? I’m guilty and returned 2 within the 14 day return period lol
How do I know? I’m guilty and returned 2 within the 14 day return period lol
Didn’t read anything after you said you aren’t anti-Apple.
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Thanks for proving my point. As I said previously, good luck with your Apple investment.
So far I have not seen anyone other than me (and my wife) with one. I just went to Disneyland and didn't see one there (and I was looking.)
Awesome battery life by the way. Usually I have to use a backup battery at DL, but X took a 14 hr day there like a champ (and I used it.)
I absolutely love the iPhone X. I wasn't optimistic at all that I'd like it and feared buyers remorse because if the price, but now you'd have to pry it from my dead hands. It's my favorite iPhone out of all of them. I'm coming from a 7Plus and have had almost every model.
I have three coworkers that decided not to get one after they checked mine out citing "I'll wait for the Plus size." They just think the X is too small after having a 7Plus.
I think the size is perfect
It will be abundantly clear on the earnings release. If they hit the low end on revenue but the high end on profit margin, that likely means they sold lots of 8 Plus models but fewer X than expected. More likely they will hit or exceed their revenue target and hit but not exceed their profit margin target, which is entirely consistent with a successul X launch.
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Apple prioritized shipments to stores over pre-orders this year.
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That’s largely a function of how quickly Apple can ramp up the main supply chain. Why pay a reseller when you can buy from the source?
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I won’t name drop since I’m an accountant and not a finance major but it will be obvious from the January earnings release. The X will drive higher revenues but lower profit margins than the 8+. Analysts will be vetting both numbers. A revenue “beat” and profit margin “miss” would be treated far more kindly than a revenue miss with an earnings beat. I suspect we’ll see figures in line with a successful X launch.
Solid thoughts. Seems like a super reasonable thought approach to me, depending of course on just how accurate the teardown cost estimates are. Consider these:
- $370 in parts on $999 MSRP for the base X
- $247 in parts on $699 MSRP for the base 8
- $288 in parts on $799 MSRP for the base 8+
My somewhat-informed-but-mostly-half-assed guess is that they'll set records on both revenue and gross profit. For this not to happen, you'd need stuff like high price elasticity of demand or lots of platform switches. For better or worse, the X is not so "revolutionary" that it'll fail.
And then we can all bitch and moan about:
A) whether it's still a "success" if total units sold are down
B) what total units sold "means" with respect to Apple's manufacturing, the device itself, Android competition, the size of the mobile market, the end of carrrier subsidies, and a billion other things
C) whether there are any longer term implications from the numbers beyond Q2 forecasts
I'm waaaaaaaay more interested selfishly at seeing what we can glean about the trajectory for smartphone demand overall. We are in a brave new world now where the generational improvements in devices matter less and subsidies have died only to be replaced by payment plans that lock consumers into upgrade cycles. Lots of cool dynamics.
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this is what i suspect too. around me 5 potential buyers before the X announcement. out of these 1 ordered it but sent it back. the others passend and stick with their phones. one will buy a 7 plus.
I know some people who bought one. So far nobody returned it (I will keep mine for sure, too). I think it will take at least a year until we notice iPhone Xs in the wild regularly though. The iPhone 8 and 8 Plus are being sold in their 4th iteration (6, 6s, 7, 8). In a case they sort of all look the same. The sheer number of them out there will dwarve the X for a long time.
Why? I’m coming from the 4S and got the X and I like it.
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The market has skyrocketed the last couple of years so any benchmark investors use will look good.
Warren Buffett invests by buying failing companies and putting in new/successful managers to turn it around. His success wasn’t just from sitting in the market.
If you want expensive stocks then look at AMZN, TSLA, and NFLX. $175 is cheap for a company worth $900,000,000.
Do you know the difference between analysis and being leaked information ? Clearly you don't , cause you consider it to be analysis... please think it through .
Yup, that's why comparing one's portfolio to indexes using standardized metrics that analyze the return relative to the risk (volatility) makes so much sense. The Sharpe ratio is a pretty standard one. More advanced models will "decompose" a portfolio's returns into parts and see what's leftover. If it's positive, then you (maybe) have some alpha. So even in an up market, the question is how you perform relative to those benchmarks on a risk-adjusted basis.
On Buffett: exactly. This is part of what I tried to explain to the guy in the other thread. He is for some strange reason convinced that Buffett doesn't do fundamental analysis, despite that being discussed in virtually every book about Buffett on the planet, including the one by Mary Buffett herself. And he's under some illusion that Buffett picked Apple because he just "liked it" and "it was cheap," which is more BS. One of my favorite Buffett quotes debunks that silliness: "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
Lastly, those stocks you mentioned are certainly expensive. But that doesn't mean by corollary that Apple is "cheap." I ran a bunch of numbers on this in the other thread. Multiples such as Price to FCF, FCF/EV, EBITDA/EV, and Price to Book all put Apple in the middle of the pack among US equities. Even using PE, Apple isn't even in the top 20% of the Russell 3000.
Everything is relative. The word "cheap" implies relativity; it is meaningless without comparisons or a baseline. But no matter how you slice it, it's hard to make the case that Apple looks "cheap." Reasonable? Definitely. On the cheaper end of the spectrum? In some models, sure. Room to grow? Very possibly. "Cheap by any measure," which is what that guy laughably said repeatedly? Demonstrably false.
Perhaps you and I are just having a semantic discussion here on definitions and are in total agreeemnt. If so that's totally cool! That just wasn't what was happening with Baywatch or whatever his name is.
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Shortly after the keynote I cut out a black taped notch and tried it on my iPhone 7
Like any 3 year old kid could have predicted - it obscured lots of essential statusbar info (do not disturb mode, battery percentage, rotation lock, tether status) and lots of landscape video.
Confirming my earlier conclusion that only an UI-lunatic could have designed this
(for the sake of diplomacy, I will not draw conclusions on buyers here...)
Now reading all the developer instructions on how to minimize all the hassle, I think Apple design people have gone nuts and a serious reorg is needed there.
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Stock price in and of itself does not indicate whether or not a company is a good value.
Anyway, supply ramped up a lot faster than I expected. Either the analysts were wrong about supply constraints or demand really isn’t as strong. Who knows. We’ll find out soon. You do have to figure that some people are turned off by the lack of a home button and by Face ID. Most people won’t bother to read up on this stuff the way people here do. I saw a couple of people over the weekend who had no interest because they couldn’t figure out how to use the phone without a home button. So it’s actualy a great thing that Apple kept the 8 and 8 Plus around.
That's pretty strong empirical evidence. In a market with a true shortage your iPhones would sell quickly.
Whaha - all those returners paying "restocking fees".
Apparently those phones are sold as new again.
Apple should pay those customers "waiting line reduction fees" instead
And offer the rest "notched pixel discounts", btw
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This is not how stock markets work. Apple stock is fairly fixed and hardly follows its mkt cap - whatever news there is. Implying that shareholders profit far less than the company itself.
Something is not working there as it should, really.
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Yes, totally jury-rigged. How can you advertise a bezel-less screen phone then have a notch with a dead space?
If the notch doesn't bother you, wonderful, but design wise it's still a fail, whether people wish to admit it or not.
It will probably require a 2" wide notch, going cross-wise over the screen before some people acknowledge that. And I for one, would not underestimate Joni to be ready for that.
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No I don't, I love my 7, Still doesn't "blend in". If it's physically there it doesn't blend in. It's there covering part of the screen. You and a million others can pretend you can't see it, perhaps you've convinced yourself you can't see it, but it's there covering part of the screen. Can you see the part of the screen obscured by the notch? No you can't because it's there doing a great job of not blending in.
Wait.... wait ..... thank god your "20%" are the rational thinkers on his forum lol... you do realise the cynics and pessimists are still right case Ming said the improvement is 10-20% in shipping , which still does not explain how initial estimates going well into Q1 2018 which the "rational 20%"
were cheering are now jumping on the 1-2 week delivery ...while failing to look at the facts that don't add up - but don't worry those rational thinkers 150% believe demand is huge ! And will accept any news... logic or not that is pro apple, any news that is not pro apple is false ...logic or not ... yes MR is fun. Selective reading helps. I'm sure you loved the raise in production from 3 to 10 times ..... though don't ignore the 10-20% ..... it's the 10-20% that matters.... so in other words Ming had a good idea what the ramp up was . And if say apple is 20% ahead.... say 6 days (in a month), interesting estimates have dropped from 4-5 weeks to 1-2 ..... maybe some room for being cynical about demand?
So since iOS 11 has been a buggy mess, the finely tuned X is a buggy mess?
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Aren’t you doing the same thing. Hell all of us are
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Ok. Thanks for the report. But who cares. It’s a phone.
Ok so you dont own one, never used . Ok got it thanks!