Kuo: Apple Car Still in Early Stages, Unlikely to Launch Until 2025-2027 at Earliest

[farewelwilliams]

People here have no idea that it'll be another 50 years before fully autonomous cars are ever on the road...

Just look at how slow progress has been over the last 10 years, compared to 20 years ago.

Sounds like you haven't seen the latest FSD beta by Tesla. It self drives on local streets and highways *today* with human supervision. It can also navigate parking lots. Only things left to do is connecting the local streets to parking lot entrances to find a parking spot and continue the march of the 9's of safety stats. The capability will be here in the next 1-2 years, and it'll be safe enough in about 5 years.

Progress is measured on the exponential scale, not on a linear scale.

 

[MacManTexas56]

If you are driving more than 300 miles, you are almost certainly on a road that has a supercharger. Very few trips are >300 miles. And a tiny percentage of those are on routes that don’t intersect super chargers. That’s how Tesla chose where to place them.

As for “planning,” you simply enter your destination into the car’s nav, and it tells you where to go, and suggests which super chargers to stop at.

we drove from Texas to Calgary, Canada with stops in Colorado, Wyoming and Montana along the way. Most roads were back roads with tons of miles in between gas stations. Doubtful there were superchargers along all these roads. We never saw a Telsa on the way up on this route. The way home we took main roads and saw Tesla's all over the place. Took the "scenic route" on the way up there and the main highway back. We'd miss out on the scenic route if we had a Tesla.

 

[hagjohn]

that means you have to modify your trip JUST so you can charge your car. If you do a route you normally go and it doesn't have a charger, then you have to modify the trip completely and put you in an area you wouldn't otherwise go adding on time to your trip. Again, if you're main highway driving, then sure it won't be a problem, but not everyone sticks to the main highways. It's just not realistic at this point to act like you can drive anywhere in the USA and there's a supercharger available. I can't imagine going on a trip and having to plan the entire drive based on where a supercharger would be.

The law of supply and demand will kick in but like people have said above, there are ways around this already.

 

[ArtOfWarfare]

that means you have to modify your trip JUST so you can charge your car. If you do a route you normally go and it doesn't have a charger, then you have to modify the trip completely and put you in an area you wouldn't otherwise go adding on time to your trip. Again, if you're main highway driving, then sure it won't be a problem, but not everyone sticks to the main highways. It's just not realistic at this point to act like you can drive anywhere in the USA and there's a supercharger available. I can't imagine going on a trip and having to plan the entire drive based on where a supercharger would be.

It's pretty easy. You tell the car where to go and it takes you there, routing through chargers as needed.

It's easier than taking a trip in a gas vehicle, where you'll have to mix gas stations into your trip but who knows where you'll find them. You'll have the stress of "oh crap - I'm down to 20 miles and I seem to be between towns in the middle of the woods now..." in a gas car. Vs a Tesla just knowing where all the chargers in the world are and ensuring you're always within range of a few.

 

[MacManTexas56]

The 50 mile stretch of backroads don't need a supercharger because it's only 50 miles long. You'll drive from one end to the other and be able to drive for another 200 miles.

Every Tesla vehicle can recover at least 75 miles from a Supercharger in 5 minutes. So recovering energy for that little backroad jaunt will only take 3 minutes, max. Model 3 and Y can do it in closer to 2 minutes.

Talking about how those backroads don't have superchargers is like talking about how there's gaps between gas stations that are 30+ miles long between Vegas and LA - that's fine, people will stop for gas before or after the gap.

who said the backroad was only 50 miles long? take a drive through Wyoming or Montana and if you're not on a main highway, you are on the backroads for hundreds of miles. You can take an entire trip through those states without hitting the main highway.

 

[cmaier]

we drove from Texas to Calgary, Canada with stops in Colorado, Wyoming and Montana along the way. Most roads were back roads with tons of miles in between gas stations. Doubtful there were superchargers along all these roads. We never saw a Telsa on the way up on this route. The way home we took main roads and saw Tesla's all over the place. Took the "scenic route" on the way up there and the main highway back. We'd miss out on the scenic route if we had a Tesla.

ok. So the 3 people who make such trips should buy different cars.

 

[MacManTexas56]

It's pretty easy. You tell the car where to go and it takes you there, routing through chargers as needed.

It's easier than taking a trip in a gas vehicle, where you'll have to mix gas stations into your trip but who knows where you'll find them. You'll have the stress of "oh crap - I'm down to 20 miles and I seem to be between towns in the middle of the woods now..." in a gas car. Vs a Tesla just knowing where all the chargers in the world are and ensuring you're always within range of a few.

sure, it will take you on a route WITH chargers. I don't want to take a main highway up to Colorado. I want to take the backroads. Not sure why this concept is so hard to grasp.

 

[MacManTexas56]

ok. So the 3 people who make such trips should buy different cars.

Really, only 3 people take long road trips and don't go the main highway?

 

[cmaier]

sure, it will take you on a route WITH chargers. I don't want to take a main highway up to Colorado. I want to take the backroads. Not sure why this concept is so hard to grasp.

Because it’s a dumb argument. “I want to do something pointless and it’s inconvenient if I buy a car nobody is forcing me to buy.”

If you insist on avoiding main roads, stick to ICE cars for as long as anybody makes them.

 

[cmaier]

Really, only 3 people take long road trips and don't go the main highway?

Yes. Only 3. The reason that highways exist is because they cover the routes most people take over long distances.

 

[MacManTexas56]

Because it’s a dumb argument. “I want to do something pointless and it’s inconvenient if I buy a car nobody is forcing me to buy.”

If you insist on avoiding main roads, stick to ICE cars for as long as anybody makes them.

what I find dumb is you trying to tell me how I should travel. Who said I was buying a Tesla or someone was forcing me to buy one? just saying for long road trips it just doesn't make sense at this time for a lot of people.

 

[MacManTexas56]

Yes. Only 3. The reason that highways exist is because they cover the routes most people take over long distances.

They have main highways and smaller highways. If I want to drive to Colorado, I want to see the cool scenic route...aka small highway or backroads.

 

[ipponrg]

sure, it will take you on a route WITH chargers. I don't want to take a main highway up to Colorado. I want to take the backroads. Not sure why this concept is so hard to grasp.

Keep in mind some people don’t enjoy taking the back roads because they only care about their destination and not the scenic route to go there.

 

[MacManTexas56]

Keep in mind some people don’t enjoy taking the back roads because they only care about their destination and not the scenic route to go there.

what does that have to do with me taking the back roads tho? lol

Tesla is not for everyone and that's my point. But somehow I'm in the wrong bc I don't agree with taking main roads where chargers are.

 

[ipponrg]

what does that have to do with me taking the back roads tho? lol

You were complaining about how having an EV wont allow you to take scenic back roads, so I was just reminding you of some of your audience that is reading 🙂

 

[MacManTexas56]

You were complaining about how having an EV wont allow you to take scenic back roads, so I was just reminding you of some of your audience that is reading 🙂

it's not for everyone and not realistic at this point. Some trips may be quicker to take the backroads than it is to take the main highway. And the guy above suggesting people stop every 2 hours to pee anyways, so might as well charge your car at that time too. We all travel differently, which is why not everyone drives a Tesla.

 

[The Game 161]

So much for 2024 lol

 

[innovationwho]

1) Tesla re no ay finished yet, sorry but they are not!
2) Apple will never release the Apple car, they just will not. They missed their chance. By the Tim they get it out it will be over 10 years old. That is like designing a plasma screen TV and taking over 10 years to release it only to find that others are selling flat screen 4K LED TVs.

That’s actually wrong. Let’s take Airpods Max as an example. Apple said they were 2-4 years in the making. If we took your belief by heart, that means they wouldn’t have the chips that are in them. Probably not even Bluetooth 5.0 even though 6.0 is out right now. I mean even the iPhones. They are constantly being developed yet they are always ahead of any competition. Developing something for years doesn’t mean it will be years behind because you can design something years ahead and make small changes to add current tech if need be.

 

[Labeno]

In that distant future, cars will not likely be sold to individuals anymore, and car insurance for a person in an autonomous car will no longer be needed. It will all be robot-taxis by that time. Apple is probably planning on that.

 

[Tagbert]

There are many contract auto manufacturers, which have been used even by companies like Porsche, Mercedes, etc. They’ll have no problem getting them made should they choose not to own their own factories.

Yes, companies like Magna Steyr already do specialty manufacturing for various automobile companies. They are already building the Jaguar I-pace for instance

 

[Kierkegaarden]

As much as I like Apple products, I will never put my life into the hands of a self-driving car.

What if you were in a backseat passenger area that was reinforced to withstand even the most devastating crash?

 

[Kierkegaarden]

Kuo is a great source for products that are 6-18 months out. For products that are a few years out, I don‘t think his supply chain sources are as relevant. He has no sources inside Apple, unlike e.g. Gurman (from Bloomberg) and a few others.

Good point. He has no idea how long Apple has been on this project, how much r&d has been devoted to it, and what form it will take.

This is what I think — it makes sense for Apple to enter this market because:

-Most people use transportation every day, like phones.
-They could make the world a better place by putting a form of clean transportation out.
-The size of the market is massive.

 

[chucker23n1]

Autonomous vehicles will ultimately be far safer than human-controlled cars.

In the long run, yes, but probably not for another decade or two.

 

[anthogag]

Apple could be designing for solid state batteries...

 

[dguisinger]

I own way too many Apple products.... and I still think this is such a stupid concept, I can't believe people take it seriously.

Apple does a few things well, one of them is outsourcing. The market exists for outsourcing the building of small electronic gadgets at the scales of millions of units a year. There are only maybe a hundred(?) facilities capable of building cars, most are in use or shut down and in disrepair. Maybe they could find a vehicle manufacturer willing to build it for them, but come on...with as arrogant and low-margin for the outsourcers that Apple is known for? The car companies aren't that desperate for business. The stories from suppliers are numerous on how they are forced to compete in a zero-sum, everyone-but-apple loses game. I just don't see this working unless Apple builds their own vehicle plant, and I just don't see Apple ever deciding that is the one thing they want to actually spend their money on.

Then add to it what the analyst said. Apple sucks at the implementation end of ML. Siri stood still for years for many reasons... privacy decisions, the talent that wrote Siri bailed, lack of extendability by 3rd parties, etc. Tesla has self driving vehicles being beta tested by non-trained individuals on public roads, TODAY. Uber which was expected to be one of the top self driving firms has exited because they screwed up so badly (And Uber's pricing model was always based on eventually replacing human drivers to make money, so it was essential to them). In 8 years, Apple is going to have nothing to offer that hasn't been leapfrogged by every other company that actually sells vehicles now.

I just don't understand the desire for Apple to produce a car... either from Apple, or from consumers.
Apple doesn't build TVs or Microwaves or eBikes. What makes a commodity, a car, more appealing than any of those? I don't think Apple should get into Microwaves or eBikes, and I'm not sure TVs would have been a success either.