Kuo: Apple Vision Pro Unlikely to Receive Major Upgrades Until 2027

[aidler]

There's been a more than yearlong shortage in the semiconductor supply chain that contributed to this... it's not some nefarious plot. Source: My brother is in charge of accelerated computing hardware validation at AMD and deals with TSMC.

Of course you are right. As always, no one is responsible. It's just the circumstances. 😵‍💫

 

[Avatar74]

Of course you are right. As always, no one is responsible. It's just the circumstances. 😵‍💫

The circumstances were/are COVID-19 and the shift to electric vehicle production...

 

[deepspacecowboy]

I don't know if Steve would be a better CEO than Tim. The only thing I know is that pretty much every major tech company in the US has been doing the same thing in recent years, namely holding back technologies and slowing development cycles so as not to cannibalize their existing cash cows. That's what happens in a market like this, which economists call a tight and closed oligopoly.
I think it would be Steve, not Tim, who would have the vision and strength to break out of such a corporate habit.

Personally I think brining up Jobs is pointless. He's been dead for 19 years now. Let's all let the man rest. Finally.

What technologies do you think are being held back? I don't know that I agree or disagree with you, but I'm curious to hear more of your thoughts. And why would they care about cannibalizing their existing cash cows if the new thing is an even bigger cash cow?

Honestly, that line of thinking doesn't really make sense to me. It strikes me as somewhat conspiratorial. These companies are all spending billions of dollars every year on R&D. They do acquire a lot of small, innovative companies and I think there's definitely an argument to be made for that practice having a somewhat chilling effect on the industry. But it's not like big tech is spending all of that money only to hold back technologies.

 

[thewill586]

Your assumption that Apple will only make headsets like the VP is probably faulty. Leaked documents show that smart glasses have always been Apple's end-goal.

i don’t think so. what is the purpose of a light seal? ar glasses won’t have the feature set

 

[mongobongo]

No, but I can't use AVP either in that context... I have corrective lenses with prism. I checked. Zeiss cannot make my prescription.

There is a use case for this feature but it's very narrowly restricted to senior executives who do a lot of business travel and need the privacy. But business travel is being cut back, too, and I suspect that except for a handful of technocrats (and Taylor Swift), there aren't many senior execs who feel hard pressed to strap this thing to their head.

As for me, we're about fifty years away from the form factor that I would actually use... the only problem is that I won't be here in another fifty years. However, if by some miracle of cardiovascular science I am kept alive into my 100s, I'd probably just ask you to put me out of my misery so I don't have to watch the planet turn into an uninhabitable, fascistic hellscape.

If a product has enough narrow use cases it's going to appeal to just about anyone. Just look at iPhone and the millions of available apps. I think the VP will too one day.

 

[Dremmel]

The current VP looks like a new form of birth control. It is just not attractive. Until humans evolve sturdier necks and knees then the hardware needs a huge reduction in size and weight, the external battery has to go ... Mostly tho' Apple must woo back all the developers they burned. Right now they just aren't interested.

 

[TracesOfArsenic]

Hopefully that date has been forecast because Cook will be out by then and they can start from the beginning again.

 

[Avatar74]

If a product has enough narrow use cases it's going to appeal to just about anyone. Just look at iPhone and the millions of available apps. I think the VP will too one day.

iPhone has three major use cases, not narrow at all.

Also, and perhaps more importantly: The cell phone market in the U.S. began to surpass the landline market in 2005, the same year that Jeff Han demonstrated multitouch interfaces at MIT and iPhone development began. Furthermore, iPhone prices were subsidized by cell carriers for the first few years... as was already the norm for the U.S. cell phone market.

AVP is not going to see either of these benefits.

 

[Silverado]

Awesome! So it will be years of software updates for early adopters who pay the large sum for the current model without regret in their investment!

 

[mongobongo]

iPhone has three major use cases, not narrow at all.

Also, and perhaps more importantly: The cell phone market in the U.S. began to surpass the landline market in 2005, the same year that Jeff Han demonstrated multitouch interfaces at MIT and iPhone development began. Furthermore, iPhone prices were subsidized by cell carriers for the first few years.

AVP is not going to see either of these benefits.

iPhone has several major use cases and in addition an overwhelming amount of narrow use cases. Most third party apps represent one of those narrow use cases.

 

[Avatar74]

iPhone has several major use cases and in addition an overwhelming amount of narrow use cases. Most third party apps represent one of those narrow use cases.

Re-read my post. Its biggest use case was massively subsidized. AVP doesn't have that benefit.

 

[mongobongo]

Re-read my post. Its biggest use case was massively subsidized. AVP doesn't have that benefit.

No I get that but I think VP and spatial computing will eventually be huge despite not being subsidized and I'm convinced iPhone would have been too. Would it have taken longer? There is definitely a case for that.

 

[Avatar74]

No I get that but I think VP and spatial computing will eventually be huge despite not being subsidized and I'm convinced iPhone would have been too. Would it have taken longer? There is definitely a case for that.

But these aren't use cases. These are platforms.

What can I do with "spatial computing" that I absolutely need to do? I already needed a phone and internet access in 2007 (I already had these things in 1993-96; by 2007 they were a necessity). I still have a phone and Internet access. I have a laptop too. AVP offers me nothing I need that these devices don't already provide.

VR manufacturers still haven't really figured that out. They're like John Sculley looking at Hypercard having absolutely no idea what to do with it. Sculley was only the third worst thing to happen to Apple.

 

[Someyoungguy]

Someone doesn't remember Mac IIvx/Centris 650 saga. Here's a brief history lesson.

In 1992, Apple introduced the Mac IIvx for the low, low price of $3000. It sported a 32KHz 68030 (16-bit bus), 4 MB RAM, 80 MB HD and a CD drive. What a great deal. That is until 4 months later Apple released the Centris 650, which looks exactly like the IIvx but with moar RAM, larger HD and a faster 68040 chip. The real kick in the teeth was it sold for $250 less. You've been IIvx-ed.

As an old fart I have to correct some things that aren’t really material to your point; but as I said, I’m old and smelly.

The 68030 ran at 30 MHz, not KHz. It also had a 32-bit bus. You’d have to go back to the 68000 to have a 16-bit data bus.

You may now return to the status Kuo.

 

[mongobongo]

But these aren't use cases. These are platforms.

What can I do with "spatial computing" that I absolutely need to do? I already needed a phone and internet access in 2007. I still have a phone and Internet access. I have a laptop too. AVP offers me nothing I need that these devices don't already provide.

VR manufacturers still haven't really figured that out. They're like John Sculley looking at Hypercard having absolutely no idea what to do with it. Sculley was only the third worst thing to happen to Apple.

I see you point, there is a case to be made that iPhone had stronger use cases than VP out of the gate but iPhone is an incredibly high bar to clear and I don't think VP needs to do that.

Content consumption is already a major use case for VP that will appeal to most people who try it. As I said there are also many narrow use cases and there will be many more, both major and narrow.

I predict shopping and education will be other major use cases someday down the line. You have tried the VP yourself right? Seeing photorealistic objects in 3D space is going to make shopping in 2D feel like going from black and white to color.

 

[Surf Monkey]

If a product has enough narrow use cases it's going to appeal to just about anyone. Just look at iPhone and the millions of available apps. I think the VP will too one day.

Well, I don’t know about that. iPhone has several killer applications that are virtually universal. The phone, text messages, internet web browsing, email, camera, video. None of these are niche use cases.

 

[Avatar74]

I predict shopping and education will be other major use cases someday down the line. You have tried the VP yourself right?

Education relies on government funding, and usually comes in low on everyone's priorities... As I mentioned elsewhere on the forums, 40 years ago I already saw them cut back. Instead of Apples schools had to start buying the Franklin Ace (][e clone).

But the shopping example is one that I think is the killer app for VR/AR/MR ... just not yet.

Seeing photorealistic objects in 3D space is going to make shopping in 2D feel like going from black and white to color.

You're on the right track... but consider for a moment the other thing that made iPhone's ecosystem... it was purposely anchored to iTunes Music Store. iTMS had a compelling use case: convenience. Around 2000-2001, Apple quietly licensed the one-click purchasing patent from Amazon. This is the key to what built Apple's comeback.

The next frontier would be no-click purchasing. Imagine being able to look at a person's jacket, a sofa in a friend's house or a car on the road, and say "I want that" and your MR glasses locate the closest merchant, set up the order, and submit your sizing, color/model preferences, and shipping information all at the snap of your finger.

Forget a 3D re-rendering of the item... Anything you can see you can buy.

That's the holy grail. That's a trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars sized market.

But it's about 50 years away both in terms of the AI, the chipset, the battery size and the form factor: the camera, the display, the sensors, the CPU/GPU all sandwiched into normal optical lenses that can be fitted to any ordinary eyeglass frame.

The company that makes this product will dethrone Amazon.

 

[Surf Monkey]

I see you point, there is a case to be made that iPhone had stronger use cases than VP out of the gate but iPhone is an incredibly high bar to clear and I don't think VP needs to do that.

Sure. But Apple hasn’t marketed it that way. According to them it’s the future of computing, not the future of phones. So not only does it have to reach the iPhone bar, it has to reach something close to the Macintosh bar for the marketing to be true.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Education relies on government funding, and usually comes in low on everyone's priorities... As I mentioned elsewhere on the forums, 40 years ago I already saw them cut back. Instead of Apples schools had to start buying the Franklin Ace (][e clone).

But the shopping example is one that I think is the killer app for VR/AR/MR ... just not yet.



You're on the right track... but consider for a moment the other thing that made iPhone's ecosystem... it was purposely anchored to iTunes Music Store. iTMS had a compelling use case: convenience. Around 2000-2001, Apple quietly licensed the one-click purchasing patent from Amazon. This is the key to what built Apple's comeback.

The next frontier would be no-click purchasing. Imagine being able to look at a person's jacket, a sofa in a friend's house or a car on the road, and say "I want that" and your MR glasses locate the closest merchant, set up the order, and submit your sizing, color/model preferences, and shipping information all at the snap of your finger.

Forget a 3D re-rendering of the item... Anything you can see you can buy.

That's the holy grail. That's a trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars sized market.

But it's about 50 years away both in terms of the AI, the chipset, the battery size and the form factor: the camera, the display, the sensors, the CPU/GPU all sandwiched into normal optical lenses that can be fitted to any ordinary eyeglass frame.

The company that makes this product will dethrone Amazon.

I don’t think “no click purchasing” is a good thing. Products are already easy to buy. Driving people to think even less about it is a corrosive and destructive plan that will have very negative consequences IMO.

 

[mongobongo]

Well, I don’t know about that. iPhone has several killer applications that are virtually universal. The phone, text messages, internet web browsing, email, camera, video. None of these are niche use cases.

It has both. I agree that all the use cases you mentioned are virtually universal. There are also 1.8 million or so third party apps and most of them represent some niche use case.

Still I don’t see why the VP constantly has to be compared to the world’s most successful product. It can still be a huge success while not being as successful as iPhone.

 

[jz0309]

I don't know where I'd rank Cook as a CEO, but I would place him as the best COO of all time. Apple was on the brink of death before Jobs hired Cook as COO of Apple in 1998. He kept the trains running on time and got Apple out of the red. I'd argue that if Cook had never joined Apple, there wouldn't be an Apple today.🤨 The company would have folded due to all the funds being spend on Steve's flights of fancy that dreamed up the iMac, iPod and iPhone.

Tim took all the R&D spent during Job's second coming and turn it into profit. Granted, if Jobs had remained, there would have been more wild ideas and R&D spending to dream up innovative designs and devices. It wouldn't have been the same, but thinner of the early Cook era.😝

I agree, Cook enabled Jobs to do what Jobs did best, and Cook did all the things Jobs wasn't good at.

 

[Surf Monkey]

It has both. I agree that all the use cases you mentioned are virtually universal. There are also 1.8 million or so third party apps and most of them represent some niche use case.

Right. But I seriously doubt anyone is buying an iPhone based on some niche app. They buy it for the features I mentioned.

Still I don’t see why the VP constantly has to be compared to the world’s most successful product. It can still be a huge success while not being as successful as iPhone.

But it isn’t off to a great start.

 

[mongobongo]

Education relies on government funding, and usually comes in low on everyone's priorities...

I meant education in a broader sense, not just public schools. Let’s call it learning. Instructions, courses, how-to’s and of course private education and professional development.

 

[thatsmyfish]

This assumes that the general public wants to spend significant time inside a system that makes you encounter the world through a camera.

Cameras are not able to replicate how your eyes see. There will always be serious compromises with systems like this. But most importantly, it is highly dubious whether more than a tiny sub set of people want to wear ANY device like this on their faces regardless of how much smaller it gets. It appears to me that the only viable realization of this idea is clear glasses that aren’t much bigger than standard sunglasses. But that kind of technology isn’t anywhere close to being realized and there’s a significant chance that it never will be.

People don’t want iPhones. It’s rude to take your phone out in public.

iPad is a dud. It will never see a refresh. It’s just a big iPhone.

The Watch is DOA. I already have a phone in my hand.

The future of AR, the ability to view virtual monitors, its impact on the work place, the ability to take your office with you wherever you go, to see texts out of the corner of your eye without having to use your hands, to privately view information without people looking over your shoulders, to transport yourself to another location, to visit with relatives thousands of miles away and appear to share a space with them and interact seamlessly?

That is the future. It will inform how we use our devices, and what Apple sells. This isn’t a speaker or a power charger. Apple will spend massively on this because it will revolutionize more than other products which were also dismissed by those who can’t not dismiss everything.

 

[thatsmyfish]

Right. But I seriously doubt anyone is buying an iPhone based on some niche app. They buy it for the features I mentioned.


But it isn’t off to a great start.

Apple Watch barely sold. iPhone was restricted to a single carrier. Apple is focused on Vision Pro X.