Kuo: Vision Pro Likely to Launch in Late January or Early February

[citysnaps]

People have been criticising Apple for as long as I can remember (looking back, I recall the iMac initially being mocked for not being a "real computer", then the iPod being derided by people wanting a newer iMac instead, then the iPhone criticised by people wanting another iPod or Mac).

It may not be youth or ignorance, but something is making these people extremely cynical about Apple and incapable of evaluating anything Apple does objectively. Right now, one theory I have is that Apple, being a design-led company which claims to be at the intersection between arts and technology, continues to be misunderstood. It's like so many people have been conditioned to judging tech products based on quantifiable metrics like processor speed, amount of ram, number of pixels, physical capacity of batteries etc, and then Apple comes in and completely upsets conventional wisdom by showing how design matters in the mass market where the customer is the end user, and is completely free to choose a product based in intangible factors that cannot be measured, such as the look and feel of a device.

Maybe you can shed some light, given that you have been using Macs for 15 years more than I have.

Your analysis is spot-on. There a lot of unhappy/cynical people out there. The reflexive cynicism often expressed here started with the release of iPod and has continued with almost every product since (iPod, iPhone, Apple Tablet, Watch, AirPods, etc). All projected flops.

I think many people are just intrinsically unhappy, and taking a swing at the Man (Apple) helps them feel better.

 

[GuruZac]

Cars?

Cars and electronics aren’t usually considered the same product. Surely you understood the point

 

[chucker23n1]

Cars and electronics aren’t usually considered the same product.

But there’s no real reason not to lump them in the same category. (And cars, increasingly, are electronics.)

Surely you understood the point

I don’t think Apple is under any illusion that this will sell as well as iPhones do.

 

[Jensend]

Where's the designs of a physical controller? I've seen no mention of that here.

Ahh, existing tech. Not great.

Would using your head to point, and using a button/key on a controller of your choice (or perhaps a different hand gesture) not work for you?
I mean, I'd prefer a 6 DOF controller option, but that's not happening (yet).

The way I see it, Apple is adding two or three new pointing options—head, eye, and hand— that weren't built into previous Apple devices, without removing previous options.

As long as you can get the device on your head and wear it comfortably, I'm mostly seeing upsides as far as accessibility is concerned, compared to other Apple devices.
The "comfortably" part will be a challenge even for those without any major disabilities.

 

[Jensend]

It's a fail for me, I don't see in 3D (Dwayne syndrome), and no thumbs to do the pinch and not much finger movement otherwise.

I just saw a news story that mentions that another option is touching your hands together to trigger an input event.

I also wouldn't want to wear one for any length of time.

I think this is, by far, the biggest issue. I'm a VR enthusiast, and comfort us probably the biggest reason I don't use it more.

Does it adjust to only using perspective when layering,

I'm not sure what you mean by that. I can't think of anything they'd want in a monoscopic view that they wouldn't also want in a stereoscopic view. Maybe stronger ground shadows so you can more easily determine the depth of an element? You can also determine depth by moving your head side to side.

 

[bobcomer]

Would using your head to point, and using a button/key on a controller of your choice (or perhaps a different hand gesture) not work for you?

Maybe, though it's hard to tell without testing it. Hand gestures, probably not.

As long as you can get the device on your head

That I don't know, it depends on if you have to do any adjustment of the device to put it on. (tighten it down for instance)

The "comfortably" part will be a challenge even for those without any major disabilities.

Agreed.

 

[bobcomer]

I just saw a news story that mentions that another option is touching your hands together to trigger an input event.

Maybe.

I'm not sure what you mean by that. I can't think of anything they'd want in a monoscopic view that they wouldn't also want in a stereoscopic view. Maybe stronger ground shadows so you can more easily determine the depth of an element? You can also determine depth by moving your head side to side.

That one is hard to describe, but by perspective, I mean things like angles and sizes of objects. If they assume just 3D viewing, they wouldn't concern themselves with that inside the viewing distance of 20 feet or so, but I would need that perspective view all the way in. It's another one of those things that I'd have to see to know if it worked for me. (or not) I know some distance/perspective tests I can either spectacularly fail, or score better than average, but never average.

 

[HMI]

Gotta say, I don’t see the allure of wearing this apparatus on my melon for any length of time.
I genuinely don’t know how to handicap if this will be a success or a “meh”.

Subtract $100 if your melon is not ripe.

 

[Jensend]

Maybe.


That one is hard to describe, but by perspective, I mean things like angles and sizes of objects. If they assume just 3D viewing, they wouldn't concern themselves with that inside the viewing distance of 20 feet or so, but I would need that perspective view all the way in. It's another one of those things that I'd have to see to know if it worked for me. (or not) I know some distance/perspective tests I can either spectacularly fail, or score better than average, but never average.

I'm just not sure that from a VR UI perspective, if it matters that something looks like it's 3 feet away and one foot in width, when it's actually 6 feet away and two feet in width.
Apple is mostly avoiding direct touch. If you have to simulate physically touching something, good depth perception definitely helps, but in a UI that's more built around pointing, it doesn't matter as much.

 

[MNGR]

I was tempted to bring that up, but let’s be honest, there aren’t that many Macs sold >= 3,500$. Probably 80% of sales below $2k.

If I recall correctly I spent about $5k for my Mac II. It lasted for many years

 

[eifelbube]

Mass shipments of the Vision Pro to Apple will begin in the first week of January, according to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

In a Christmas Eve note, Kuo said the Vision Pro will most likely hit shelves in late January or early February based on this schedule.

Kuo estimates that Vision Pro shipments in 2024 will reach approximately 500,000 units.

Apple first announced the Vision Pro at WWDC in June, and said it would launch in the U.S. in early 2024, followed by more countries later in the year.

Happy Holidays!

Article Link: Kuo: Vision Pro Mass Shipments Begin Next Week, Launch by February

People still arguing that the VisionPro will be an eventual success because the iPod and iPhone were. Since this is an apples and oranges comparison, why not include the Newton …

 

[darngooddesign]

1. Apple Watch will fail, actually it's already failing.
2. Apple Vision Pro will fail immediately, after it is released.
3. Apple iPhone is failing, people are tired to pay thousands annually for nothing.

Apple and Apple's shareholders will experience a MASSIVE decline worldwide.
Because Apple "value" is just a pipe dream. It's just speculated/100% fake "value" without value.

Apple's trillions of dollars of market "value" is in reality much less. The next months will show this.

Apple, Google, and Microsoft, etc. are just imaginary giants. They are just extremely overhyped worldwide.

Geee those sure do look dramatic and compelling.

 

[Surf Monkey]

People have been criticising Apple for as long as I can remember (looking back, I recall the iMac initially being mocked for not being a "real computer", then the iPod being derided by people wanting a newer iMac instead, then the iPhone criticised by people wanting another iPod or Mac).

It may not be youth or ignorance, but something is making these people extremely cynical about Apple and incapable of evaluating anything Apple does objectively. Right now, one theory I have is that Apple, being a design-led company which claims to be at the intersection between arts and technology, continues to be misunderstood. It's like so many people have been conditioned to judging tech products based on quantifiable metrics like processor speed, amount of ram, number of pixels, physical capacity of batteries etc, and then Apple comes in and completely upsets conventional wisdom by showing how design matters in the mass market where the customer is the end user, and is completely free to choose a product based in intangible factors that cannot be measured, such as the look and feel of a device.

Maybe you can shed some light, given that you have been using Macs for 15 years more than I have.

You’re over thinking it.

 

[Surf Monkey]

But for high fidelity personal screening, headsets are the way to go.

According to who? I’m sure there are plenty of people who don’t want to wear a headset to watch a movie or show. Furthermore, headphone stereo is not the same as in-the-room multi-speaker surround sound, so your proposition is highly doubtful at best. And yes, I’ve watched movies and TV in VR.

On your other comment, no. I don’t need it to do everything. But it had better do a whole hell of a lot more than it appears able to do if it’s going to be the “next step” for Apple. A niche item in a market that has already arguably failed is not the path forward.

 

[Surf Monkey]

1. Apple Watch will fail, actually it's already failing.
2. Apple Vision Pro will fail immediately, after it is released.
3. Apple iPhone is failing, people are tired to pay thousands annually for nothing.

Apple and Apple's shareholders will experience a MASSIVE decline worldwide.
Because Apple "value" is just a pipe dream. It's just speculated/100% fake "value" without value.

Apple's trillions of dollars of market "value" is in reality much less. The next months will show this.

Apple, Google, and Microsoft, etc. are just imaginary giants. They are just extremely overhyped worldwide.

Reductionism. Not especially relevant.

 

[Alan Wynn]

I'm not sure what color the sky is in the universe where half a million people are going to shell out that kind of money in this kind of economy for that kind of device.

Just to be clear, are you arguing that Apple will not sell at least 500,000 units in the first year? What is your estimate for sales? How many would they have to sell for you to consider this a success? What else would need to happen for this to be considered a success by you?

 

[Alan Wynn]

It’s at a price point to not sell in high numbers. Is there any electronics product that sells in high numbers that’s $3500?

Define high numbers.

 

[Karma*Police]

Also just because 2.1 million people pre-ordered it, again most of those orders coming from 2019, does not mean that 2.1 million people (or anywhere close to that) are actually going to pay the full amount and take delivery of the cyber truck.

You’re right but it shows what kind of demand a company can generate if they do something bold and innovative. Apple is no longer that company.

 

[Karma*Police]

I believe this is because for all the limitations and issues inherent in early smartphones (like the OG iPhone not coming with 3g), Apple nailed the user experience that made users willing to put up with every other drawback combined. That's what Apple does best. They can give you a small MacBook with just 1 usb-c port and there are still enough people who prize that one killer feature enough (portability) to put up with the other shortcomings.

The problem with other VR headsets like the quest is that the resolution tends to be too low to work comfortably from, the UI is often crap, and you can't see what's around you once the headset is worn (which makes even mundane tasks like drinking a cup of coffee near impossible). There is no redeeming factor here. There are enough pain points to make most people go "Bah, it's just not worth it", even if it's so much cheaper.

The Vision Pro may not be perfect out of the box, and it doesn't have to be. I am willing to bet that after it has been released, there will be tons of articles written about some perceived problem. Maybe the battery life is too short. Maybe it's too expensive. Maybe it will be criticised for still sporting the M2 chip when the M3 is already available. None of them will detract from what really matters, the experience of putting one on and using it to interact with the world around you.

I agree with you - maybe the Vision Pro doesn't do much more than existing VR headsets, but it can do them better, to the point where people are happy to use it when competing alternatives would long have been consigned to the trash heap.

It’s not the low resolution IMO, but the lack of usefulness. People were obsessed with Atari 2600 games even with the blocky graphics because the games were fun and simple to operate. Even if Vision Pro addressed the resolution “issue,” it still has plenty of drawbacks, including price, weight, and battery life; all super important.

 

[Karma*Police]

This was largely kids putting down $100 refundable ‘deposits’

Lot of rich kids haha. No one expects Tesla to sell all those preorders on a $65k vehicle but the fact that there’s that much interest in a pickup truck is insane.

Tesla is the new Apple. Thinking differently, taking bold risks, defying conventions, proving “experts” wrong, and changing the world.

 

[bobcomer]

I was tempted to bring that up, but let’s be honest, there aren’t that many Macs sold >= 3,500$. Probably 80% of sales below $2k.

I don't know about 80% less than $2000, but you're right about me, the highest dollars I ordered from Apple was $3099 (MBP) But I do know you can order them that costly. Just max the RAM and SSD.

 

[Someyoungguy]

It’s not about being an apologist, it’s about being realistic.
It’s also about the fact that there really is no room for this product to be a flop or a hit, because they’re literally going to sell about as many as they can make.
We probably won’t have anywhere close to a picture of if this product is successful or not for several years, and by then the supply will have gone up in the costs will have come down.

The original iPod, which was at least twice the price of most competition, Mac only, firewire only and without the iTunes Store, today would be considered a “flop” by people here.
But once they switched it to USB and introduced iTunes to Windows and introduce the iTunes music Store and created cheaper and more expensive versions… It took off.

Great perspective - got a like from me - but I have to disagree with your level of optimism. Unlike iPods and iPhones, no one really knows what this is for.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Just to be clear, are you arguing that Apple will not sell at least 500,000 units in the first year? What is your estimate for sales? How many would they have to sell for you to consider this a success? What else would need to happen for this to be considered a success by you?

Of course they will. But that isn’t a significant data point. We already know that Apple is artificially limiting the number of them that they make in this first run. Apple could sell 500,000 snow tires if they released a set. Says nothing significant about the Vision Pro.

 

[iPhoneFan5349]

500,000 times $3,499 is just $1.7495 billion. Not a big thing by Apple standards. Far away from being the "next iPhone".

For real. 500,000 units is nothing. Let’s see what they come up with, but seems like they are too early in the game.

 

[Skyscraperfan]

I wonder how many units they have to sell to get back the development costs.

I saw some reviews that seriously suggest that it might replace a Mac, the monitors and a TV. That certainly will not happen. People will only wear it if there is no alternative. So far it had been the same with every headset: People use it for a while and then it will collect dust. Vision Pro might have a better resolution, but it still is heavy and uncomfortable to wear for more than an hour or so.

Most people do not wear masks any more, because they say they are uncomfortable. Would those people wear a device that weighs 500 to 600 grams?