Kuo: Vision Pro Likely to Launch in Late January or Early February

[Jensend]

That was exactly my point. Seems odd hand picked journalists can say whatever they want but developers cannot say anything at all, literally. I know I keep using that word but I believe it’s apt because they can’t say anything about it except that it happened.

What could really be that bad that hand picked friends of Apple can say “anything” but people who actually go to the effort to go to a developer session can say “nothing.”

Just seems like strange extremes that don’t make for an overall impression of straightforward honesty.

I say this as someone who is cautiously optimistic about the headset.

"hand picked friends of Apple"
Apple invited representatives of what I would consider to be the top 3 independent VR news/reviews publications, UploadVR, Road to VR, and Tested (with Norman Chan), to the initial demos of the Vision Pro. None have any history with Apple, and tend to have a gaming focus. It's not like they chose only organizations that have a history of puff pieces about Apple.

Developers will have less restricted access to the device, so they'll come across many more unfinished/suboptimal features. It's completely normal for developers with early access to a device to be highly restricted in what they say. Also, it is unfair to the media if developers can start writing about the devices first.

There's no reason for Apple to have "straightforward honesty" about the beta state of a device if they don't think it's representative of what the final shipping device will be.

 

[rukia]

With approx 136M iPhone users in the US and billions around the world Apple will sell out 0.5M units on release day, if allowed. Even with a US only release developers and companies will buy some, followed by the US Apple fans among the 136M US customer base. We know Zuckerberg will be picking up some units on day one along with all the other headset vendors. Then there are the parasite scalpers. Unless Apple takes measures against this scalpers will buy every unit possible just to flip to the billions of non-US based fans who cannot purchase one yet. If you think a company at Apple's scale will have a hard time moving paltry 0.5M units among its 1B+ customer base you're not paying attention. Even if you're not one of them realize that there are more than enough affluent customers in the world where $3.5k or $10k makes zero difference. They are simply not price sensitive like the other 99% of the population. Consider how fast Taylor Swift tickets sold out despite being scalped for thousands of dollars. People had no issues paying $15K+ markups for Kia Tellurides and 2x for Toyota RAV4 Primes.

 

[Username-already-in-use]

If we compare iPhones success to iwatch and iPad, both were a failure. iPads are currently on a steep decline and the iwatch has been pulled.

iPad, the world’s best selling tablet computer for the last 12 years: “a failure”. What does a success in the tablet world look like?

 

[cdsapplefan]

It's not a recession economy.

Recession: Definition, Causes, and Examples

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that lasts longer than a few months—though it can take years for an economy to fully recover from one.

www.investopedia.com

I'm financially doing great; better than ever, but I have no interest in this. Not even a passing curiosity...but I'm an anti early-adopter

Maybe in 3-5 years, I'll check it out.

I’ll buy a Tesla before I would buy this, a down payment at least, something useful A car would get you somewhere in Life vs this
Niche technology product

 

[cdsapplefan]

The first iPhone didn't sell all that well by the way. It'll take a 2nd or 3rd gen, a cheaper model, and a bit of social proofing because we kind of have no idea about the experience this device can give us.

I wonder if it's really going to be an M2 chip inside ? Or M3 ?

Yeah it also took the Apple Watch ⌚️ many generations before it started to catch on socially. They have to get all the software bugs out of the way and go through trial testing by first adoptors for it to even begin to star catching on.

 

[Gasu E.]

I stand by my earlier position.

Believe it or not, nobody is taking notes.

 

[Gasu E.]

Given the low volumes of shipments, it would not be desirable for Apple to create high demand since it would create a frustrated consumer base.

I suspect Apple will be content with selling to cash-rich early adopters which will (1) give them valuable real-world real-user feedback, and (2) buy Apple time to iterate on the product and produce something mass marketable.

I agree that it will be low volume, but I believe most of it will be going to developers. I would not be surprised if the total volume on this iteration is far less than 100K, and I suspect that is consistent with Apple's roadmap. I believe Apple specifically built a high end, highly flexible and functional device, in order to encourage the widest range of applications that are really going to drive the market. I think it will be 3-5 years (at least) before we see this market actually take off, if it ever does; and if it does, it will be driven by killer applications that we haven't yet seen. I do think there is a second generation product opportunity (with appropriate applications) that will be targeted at professional visualization users (medical, engineering and design), with applications showing up around 2-3 years out.

 

[PsykX]

Yeah it also took the Apple Watch ⌚️ many generations before it started to catch on socially. They have to get all the software bugs out of the way and go through trial testing by first adoptors for it to even begin to star catching on.

I'd say the Series 4 is the first one that really took off. Apple positioned the 1st gen as a productivity device at first, and then realized this approach wouldn't sell. It now sells very well as a health device.

The first Apple Watch... the processor was so slow, it'd take 30 seconds to open any application. I remember trying it at Best Buy and thinking "I can't believe Apple commercialized this"

 

[svish]

Expecting it in February. Waiting to see the first hand reports from all the customers.

 

[CarAnalogy]

"hand picked friends of Apple"
Apple invited representatives of what I would consider to be the top 3 independent VR news/reviews publications, UploadVR, Road to VR, and Tested (with Norman Chan), to the initial demos of the Vision Pro. None have any history with Apple, and tend to have a gaming focus. It's not like they chose only organizations that have a history of puff pieces about Apple.

Developers will have less restricted access to the device, so they'll come across many more unfinished/suboptimal features. It's completely normal for developers with early access to a device to be highly restricted in what they say. Also, it is unfair to the media if developers can start writing about the devices first.

There's no reason for Apple to have "straightforward honesty" about the beta state of a device if they don't think it's representative of what the final shipping device will be.

Thanks for a thoughtful reply instead of just smacking disagree. All good points. I could handle some honesty with the understanding that it’s not finished, but I also understand them wanting to control the message because people would just write clickbait negative headlines with the flimsiest of quotes.

 

[Surf Monkey]

While I don’t necessarily know if this is true or not, important to remember that the first demonstrations of multi-touch were given to Steve Jobs and the rest of Apple on an absolutely massive tech-packed table and its own room with a massive projector on the ceiling showing it’s contents.
And this was the early 2000s.
just within that decade, they were able to shrink all that down into a phone, and later a watch sized iPod nano.

So I’d suggest saying something will “never” happen, especially when it comes to getting technology smaller and more power efficient, is stupid.

No one knows what the 2030s and the 2040s and even the second half of the 2020s will bring.

The original multi touch system that Apple adopted was made by Fingerworks. A very small company founded by a couple of university researchers. Their devices were not especially large. One was a tablet, the other a keyboard. The Microsoft PixelSense was a big table but it came a few years after Fingereworks. Once Apple bought the company and dumped all its resources into multitouch they had it integrated with iPhones in two years.

Now, the Vision Pro has been under development with ALL of Apple’s resources behind it for at least three years and this is the smallest they’ve been able to make it. It doesn’t even have an onboard battery.

So no, this isn’t like multitouch. This is a complex system with a bunch of parts that can’t be miniaturized much more than they already are without major compromises.

This system will never be small enough to fit in a pair of glasses.

 

[Surf Monkey]

The original iPhone still made me and everyone I know freak out over how cool it was.

The Vision Pro has made me and everyone I know say “that’s dumb.”

Exactly. The first and biggest hurdle it has to clear is the “cool factor.” But there has never been (outside of fiction) a cool looking face mask. It just doesn’t exist. Could Apple have made a digital blindfold that looks cool and has a set of specific, obvious use cases? Sure. Did they do that with the Vision Pro? I don’t think so.

 

[eicca]

This is a typical response of the doubters. They only see the big, bulky device and fail to see how it's just a starting point into a whole new generation of 3-dimensional computing. The tech will only get leaner and meaner. Need to start somewhere.

We wouldn't have our super-powerful laptops today if computers didn't start out as room-sized contraptions back in the 40's, 50's and 60's.

What I see is an OS that isn’t as flexible as macOS, a typing interface that I hate just by imagining trying to use it, and my face getting itchy and my neck getting tired after maybe twenty minutes.

Every single demo I watch makes me think I’d rather do that same job on my Mac where I know exactly how everything works and it’s simple and quick. Being in 3D doesn’t make a hobbled OS any less hobbled.

iPhone’s strengths were very very clear upon its release. VisionOS is very clearly a solution in search of a problem.

 

[King_Kimbo]

Everyone needs to watch this

Takeaways
Great build quality
Great screens
Intuitive ui
Spatial video works well when close to the subject
Spatial is a gimmick

I stand by my earlier position. This will not sell well.

500,000 will sell in an instant, it’s a tiny amount. Apple’s eyes are years and variations down this line with this product. Your “predictions” are irrelevant because you and most others here for some reason can’t grasp what is taking place. This is simply an introduction to a new paradigm, not an attempt to hit the mass market (yet). The people who buy this and the next 4 or 5 gens are the ones who will literally help shape how it’s used and what it becomes. Listen to the last podcast, Hartley gets it.

 

[dampfnudel]

That woman looks so dorky wearing the headset. 🤣

In a few months a lot of dorky-looking celebrities will be posting to Insta wearing these headsets. Maybe in five years or so, maybe more of us will be posting pics to Insta of us wearing these headsets. That is if Apple is still selling them.

 

[Realityck]

This seems hard to believe. I feel like that’s a very short amount of time to have consumers clear on what this product is and why they need it.

It's just a guess IMHO. Earlier this year Kuo said new Macs weren't coming, and 2 weeks later there they are. You never know about when Apple is going to do something like past years.

If looking at the status of Vision OS, it's not like you see a RC yet?

Apple Releases Seventh Beta of visionOS

Apple today seeded the seventh beta of visionOS, the software that runs on the Vision Pro headset. The sixth beta came out in November, so it has...

www.macrumors.com

Apple today seeded the seventh beta of visionOS, the software that runs on the Vision Pro headset. The sixth beta came out in November, so it has been a month since Apple last released a ‌visionOS‌ update.

 

[MichaelAdam]

500,000 times $3,499 is just $1.7495 billion. Not a big thing by Apple standards. Far away from being the "next iPhone".

It’s a Pro product and the first of its kind … the “consumer” version will come a few years after and will be a killer … I believe over a million will be sold on first 6 months in USA and GB … I am already up for buying 2 for home and pro use …

 

[TheColtr]

I cannot wait for mine. I took a ton of spacial video this Christmas, and will continue taking more spacial video until I get my Vision Pro and see how good it is. If it’s anything like I hope it will be, then I’ll be very happy.

Also working in spacial is very exciting to me, being able to bring in just my laptop and have zero displays on my desk is my dream.

 

[StoneJack]

Cant wait to see porn with $3.500 device

It is going to be amazing our consumers can’t wait to buy the product they will be drooling over it

 

[FlimFlamDude]

Everyone needs to watch this

Takeaways
Great build quality
Great screens
Intuitive ui
Spatial video works well when close to the subject
Spatial is a gimmick

I stand by my earlier position. This will not sell well.

As if Spatial is the only reason why people will buy this? <facepalm> haha. The reason it won't "sell well" is because it's expensive AF and simply cost prohibitive. Cheaper versions will fly off the shelves.

 

[Realityck]

It is going to be amazing our consumers can’t wait to buy the product they will be drooling over it

I guess the 2 hour run time is ample time to be see what you need to see.

 

[StoneJack]

I guess the 2 hour run time is ample time to be see what you need to see.

Yeah standard vhs time for this kind of videos. Add spatial sound and you will be in heaven

 

[Karma*Police]

Keep in mind that the original iPhone sold its first million units in an order of 2 1/2 months, and within a year it only sold 6.1 million units.
Meanwhile, the iPhone 5C and 5S sold 9 million units… In a single weekend.

And now they’ve went from selling 6 million phones a year to 220,000,000+ phones a year.

While I’m under no impression they’re anywhere close to selling 220 million headsets in a year, it’s quite possible they could get into selling the 20 million or so units that they do with the Mac

The massive jump also had to do with subsidies and monthly payments.

Also, iPhone entered a category that was clearly useful and desirable with very clear benefits. VR OTOH is seen as a niche application with limited appeal and unclear benefits, as evidenced by poor Oculus/Meta Quest sales and 50+% abandonment rate.

Oh, and Cybertruck, priced at $61K-$120K, has 2.1 million pre-orders. That’s what happens when you take bold risks, and defy convention. Something Apple used to do regularly when they had bold leadership with, uh… vision.

 

[Abazigal]

as evidenced by poor Oculus/Meta Quest sales and 50+% abandonment rate.

Or maybe those devices just sucked. 🤷‍♂️

 

[Karma*Police]

Or maybe those devices just sucked. 🤷‍♂️

So did early smartphones but that didn’t stop people from buying those like hot cakes, cos the use case and benefits were clear to everyone.

Not so with Apple VR. The eye tracking is cool and improves UI, but it doesn’t drastically change the use case or benefits.