Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

[Pearple]

All I need is a 4 inch phone.

No nonsense with phablets and “screen time“ apps.

 

[VulchR]

Well well. I suppose ignoring customers' wishes about things like affordability, battery life, and repairability isn't such a great idea after all.

 

[ryanwarsaw]

Yeah, if you haven't noticed, iOS is a pretty big reason to stay. I guess you have noticed...since you are staying.

The Pocophone is a piece of crap. Unless you're poor, you're not going to be interested in $300 saving over the life of a device you own for 2-3 years and is in your hand hours per day. And if you're poor, you likely didn't have an iPhone in the first place.

I doubt very seriously anyone who had an iPhone is switching to a freaking Pocophone. They'll maybe switch to a high end Android, but even few will do that because they cost similar dollars and run an inferior OS.

It reminds me of posts where people are keeping their old iPhone 5 or whatever because they aren't happy with the new offerings. Very few are switching. Because of the software even old iPhones are better than the latest offerings from competitors.

Do people buy Pocophones and keep them for 5 years? I think there is a cost to the cheaper phones that is hidden. People are more free to change them but they pay to do it.

I can't think of another company where people would hang on to their old phone and not jump on the latest and greatest. The conversation amusingly enough waivers between Apple is intentionally making their phones obsolete to they are doomed because the phones last too long.

I am no expert but I look at some of the numbers Baymowe cites and also look at the P/E which makes AAPL look like a reasonable value. If AAPL is over priced right now given the numbers and the fact they have sound fundamentals I can't even imagine how bad things are at other companies. As pointed out with such huge numbers can't increase percentage wise as easily. However we are still talking billions upon billions of profits quarter after quarter. If some people sell off because they aren't satisfied with numbers that aren't anything short of miraculous others step in and make more reasonable profits.

I am new to stocks but can anybody tell me why anybody in their right mind would sell off their Apple at this moment?

 

[Glideslope]

Unexpected, but clearly understandable once people use it. The 8/8+ is killing the XR. It's all about the ppi and sharper text on the 8. Pegatron had better ramp up the 50% increase quickly. Millions still prefer Touch ID to Face ID.
Cutting the resolution was no where near as big a mistake as reducing the ppi on the XR. Loving the legacy sales though. The 8 was the last true iPhone as far as I'm concerned. You can stick Face ID where the sun does not shine.

 

[robjulo]

Right on cue. And scared of what? Do you have some kind of personal attachment in Apple that causes you to be so emotionally invested? It is a trillion dollar company that does not care about you.

Wow, I'm so scared. Typical guessing from analysts who made up their original forecast and now make up their revision to the made up forecast with no real data.

Ming Chi Kuo is a good leaker for features, but no analyst has really ever nailed demand for iPhones. It's too hard.

 

[groadyho]

I wholeheartedly agree that now it is up to real numbers to speak for themselves in February. It seems to me that there are a lot of problems the market conjures out of thin air. I think AAPL execs knew the stock would take a hit when they decided to not give the numbers on units of phones. Better take the hit now and shed 5% or 10% right now. The percentage would be a larger piece of pie later if they put it off.

Yeah and I think of how many companies that manipulate their sales figures. Apple reports and we all take it as gospel. Look at Enron

 

[ryanwarsaw]

Right on cue. And scared of what? Do you have some kind of personal attachment in Apple that causes you to be so emotionally invested? It is a trillion dollar company that does not care about you.

I don't think he is actually scared. lol
[doublepost=1542060933][/doublepost]

Yeah and I think of how many companies that manipulate their sales figures. Apple reports and we all take it as gospel. Look at Enron

I guess I could not trust anything and put my money under my mattress and watch it grow. You know because you can't trust execs, bankers, etc. I would like to believe AAPL has sounder fundamentals than Enron. Now I won't be able to sleep at night. Thanks, Thanks a lot.

 

[SeattleMoose]

Getting rid of the classic iPhone form factor embodied by the SE was a HUGE mistake.

 

[Baymowe335]

Right on cue. And scared of what? Do you have some kind of personal attachment in Apple that causes you to be so emotionally invested? It is a trillion dollar company that does not care about you.

Well, it's natural to be scared if you think the stock will go down when you have significant stake in the company. So yes, everyone that owns AAPL stock has a personal attachment to it. I am not "emotionally" invested, I'm financially invested.

The point of not being scared is that nothing has changed in AAPL's business to make me want to sell the stock. The whole market is crap and no other stocks are any better. AAPL is 15% below its all time high closing. Big deal. Other stocks are just as bad or way worse, particularly in the NASDAQ.

 

[Glockworkorange]

The only reason Im going with this phone is because the LCD screen doesn’t blast your eyeballs out with PWM like the OLED screens. Total fail on Apple’s part to pit a screen on XS and Max that gives people headaches. Unbelievable

I’ve been using an OLED screen without issue for well over a year.

The X and XS Max must be giving other people headaches...

 

[ani4ani]

Kuo speaks: Apple stock loses billions

I think you will find many of Apples subcontractors have spoken and published their results and forecasts. Any decent analyst is looking at this stuff. When these companies rely so much on Apple feeding them, it is obvious when they are going hungry....

 

[Baymowe335]

It reminds me of posts where people are keeping their old iPhone 5 or whatever because they aren't happy with the new offerings. Very few are switching. Because of the software even old iPhones are better than the latest offerings from competitors.

Do people buy Pocophones and keep them for 5 years? I think there is a cost to the cheaper phones that is hidden. People are more free to change them but they pay to do it.

I can't think of another company where people would hang on to their old phone and not jump on the latest and greatest. The conversation amusingly enough waivers between Apple is intentionally making their phones obsolete to they are doomed because the phones last too long.

I am no expert but I look at some of the numbers Baymowe cites and also look at the P/E which makes AAPL look like a reasonable value. If AAPL is over priced right now given the numbers and the fact they have sound fundamentals I can't even imagine how bad things are at other companies. As pointed out with such huge numbers can't increase percentage wise as easily. However we are still talking billions upon billions of profits quarter after quarter. If some people sell off because they aren't satisfied with numbers that aren't anything short of miraculous others step in and make more reasonable profits.

I am new to stocks but can anybody tell me why anybody in their right mind would sell off their Apple at this moment?

You shouldn't be selling a stock trading at 13X earnings that just put up 20% revenue growth and 40% EPS growth.

AAPL has the largest buyback in history and is going to buyback $71B more in stock in the next 2 quarters. If the stock goes down because of fake news and general market worry, it's a good thing long term. Nothing has changed in the business except speculation on how well iPhone sales are going to do (which is always wrong). The reported numbers are nothing short of breathtaking and the speculation is just that...speculation.

If history is a teacher, speculation is wrong when it comes to AAPL. Very complex supply chain, very loyal customers, and very cheap stock in general and relative to the market.

MSFT trades at 38 times earnings.

AAPL makes over 2X (almost 3X) the earnings of the #2 most profitable company in the last 12 months.

Most recent 12 months Net Income:

Apple:$60B
Google: $22B
Amazon: $8B
Berkshire Hathaway: $27B
Microsoft $17B
Facebook: $19B
Samsung Mobile: $8B

 

[smallcoffee]

Well, apparently in China big phablets are popular. I think the XR is aimed squarely at that market, more than US/Europe.

Perhaps, but the XR isn't much of a phablet. It's a large phone, sure, but I personally wouldn't consider that screen size to be phablet territory. I have an XS Max - that's a phablet.

 

[2GoldFish]

He's good on SPECS, but no one is good on sales.
[doublepost=1542058589][/doublepost]
Again, no. We are talking 12% versus 6.5%, which is less than 50% and the actuals aren't in yet. Yes, the growth in Q1 might slow, but we don't have the numbers to verify it yet and the EPS will grow, which is all the matters in the end.

We've discussed the law or large numbers, so growth gets harder as the numbers increase.

I don't consider growing sales $6-8 billion dollars in 90 days running out of steam. Some would call that a good year. That's why I don't use silly commentary. I just look at numbers.

Again, no. We are talking bout 12% (Q1 2018) vs 3% (Q1 2019), year-over-year. On the assumption that Apple hit mid point of their 2019 Q1 guiding ($91b).

A reduction of 75% of year-over-year growth over holiday seasons. Many would (and should) consider this significant.

 

[ChrisMoBro]

That's was the point of the youtuber's challenge (Test was done by showing the same video). And it was not close, the Xr handily won. He wanted to prove and he did, that the spec shaming of the Xr was not a real thing. When the results showed it, commenters then wanted to say it is a cheaper phone that's why it lost after the whole internet said it would have a better screen. Until somebody can match apple with an edge to edge(sides and top and bottom) LCD, FaceID, A12 chip performance with a lower price the Xr will cost what it costs.

If you haven't noticed, Apple have massively increased their pricing across all platforms. And please don't brag about their "edge to edge" display. The Xs and Xr represent a compromised design. The notch is hideous.

 

[Doomtomb]

Not to derail, but I'm wondering what exactly do you think "5G" is and what will a "5G phone" be able to do?

You sound like you could use some reading
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5G

 

[78Bandit]

Make sure you are exactly right on your facts, because I know them better than anyone here.

In Q1 2018, Apple had just increased prices on iPhone significantly, so the revenue increase there was no surprise.

Apple GUIDED for $84-$87B in FY2018 Q1, the ACTUAL was $88.29B. Since we don't know the actuala for FY2019 Q1, we have to say that they are guiding for 6.5% (not 3%) revenue growth, Apples to Apples. This is midpoint of their FY2018Q1 guidance to midpoint FY2019Q1 guidance.

You can't compare actuals to guidance. You can compare guidance to guidance or actuals to actuals, which we don't have yet.

If the actual in FY 2019 Q1 comes in higher than $93B (likely since Apple always lowballs guidance) there could be significant growth. Remember, we are talking huge numbers, so even 6.5% revenue growth is huge. As the numbers get larger, the % growth increases become harder and harder.

Why in the world would you say you can't compare future guidance to past actual results? Apple actually had $88.3B revenue in Q1 2018. Whatever guidance they may have issued previously was immediately irrelevant as we now have a fixed, actual amount to use for reference. Using old, outdated guidance numbers would only be valid in showing a trend where Apple consistently beat the high end of their guidance by some relatively stable percentage, and even in that case it would only be useful in finding some constant to adjust their future guidance by.

Unfortunately for you, Apple doesn't beat their guidance regularly. In the past 12 fiscal quarters they exceeded the high end of guidance four times. On average they have come in 0.7% under the high guidance over the past 12 quarters. That makes it reasonably possible Apple could come in higher, but unless Wharton teaches a different definition of "likely" than I am accustomed to a 1-out-of-3 chance doesn't meet that criteria.

It is noteworthy that Apple never came in under the low end of their guidance. That would indicate Apple does tend to be closer to the high end of their guidance, so using the mid-point may not be the best way to do it.

Apple is guiding Q1 2019 revenue to be between $89B and $93B. That would be a range of 0.8% to 5.3% growth over the actual results last year. History indicates expectations should be toward the upper end. Could it be higher? Of course. Apple has beaten expectations before.​

 

[Baymowe335]

Again, no. We are talking bout 12% (Q1 2018) vs 3% (Q1 2019), year-over-year. On the assumption that Apple hit mid point of their 2019 Q1 guiding ($91b).

A reduction of 75% of year-over-year growth over holiday seasons. Many would (and should) consider this significant.

What part about comparing actuals to guidance not making sense to compare are you missing? I know where you got 3% and it's utterly meaningless since $91B is fiction until reported.

Don't even get me started on where EPS growth will be, because it won't be 3% or anything close to it. It will be far higher, which is the goal here.

 

[ryanwarsaw]

These threads go nowhere because people get too fixated solely on AAPL stock. The discussions largely miss what is going on in the market in general.

You shouldn't be selling a stock trading at 13X earnings that just put up 20% revenue growth and 40% EPS growth.

AAPL has the largest buyback in history and is going to buyback $71B more in stock in the next 2 quarters. If the stock goes down because of fake news and general market worry, it's a good thing long term. Nothing has changed in the business except speculation on how well iPhone sales are going to do (which is always wrong). The reported numbers are nothing short of breathtaking and the speculation is just that...speculation.

If history is a teacher, speculation is wrong when it comes to AAPL. Very complex supply chain, very loyal customers, and very cheap stock in general and relative to the market.

MSFT trades at 38 times earnings.

AAPL makes over 2X the earnings of the #2 most profitable company.

I am not seriously thinking of selling I just bought more right after the session ended. I made a pretty hefty increase in my position. I am a bit underwater on AAPL at the moment but the magic number to break even when averaged out just went significantly lower. obviously at some point if it keeps going down I will run out of money to buy the dips. However I looked at today as another opportunity. I am still in bargain shopping mode.

If I liked AAPL at $216 I am loving it at $194

I was throwing it out there to see if anybody in this thread could make a compelling argument why AAPL would be a good idea to sell. Nobody came up with any.

 

[ChrisMoBro]

Yeah, if you haven't noticed, iOS is a pretty big reason to stay. I guess you have noticed...since you are staying.

The Pocophone is a piece of crap. Unless you're poor, you're not going to be interested in $300 saving over the life of a device you own for 2-3 years and is in your hand hours per day. And if you're poor, you likely didn't have an iPhone in the first place.

I doubt very seriously anyone who had an iPhone is switching to a freaking Pocophone. They'll maybe switch to a high end Android, but even few will do that because they cost similar dollars and run an inferior OS.

I bought an iPhone for an employee in my business and it cost over 1 months mortgage payment - that's insane. I'm just annoyed that Apple have spiked all of their prices across all products. When I bought my MacBook Pro at the end of the 2015 it cost me £2500. The same spec costs £3000 and if I wanted 32gb RAM and 2TB SSD it's over £4000!!! Their pricing is just crazy.

iOS is great but Apple's attitude towards consumers is pathetic. Look at how they're so tight with iCloud storage!!! I guess having over 700million people paying 79p is quite a nice little earner.

 

[Baymowe335]

Why in the world would you say you can't compare future guidance to past actual results? Apple actually had $88.3B revenue in Q1 2018. Whatever guidance they may have issued previously was immediately irrelevant as we now have a fixed, actual amount to use for reference. Using old, outdated guidance numbers would only be valid in showing a trend where Apple consistently beat the high end of their guidance by some relatively stable percentage, and even in that case it would only be useful in finding some constant to adjust their future guidance by.

Unfortunately for you, Apple doesn't beat their guidance regularly. In the past 12 fiscal quarters they exceeded the high end of guidance four times. On average they have come in 0.7% under the high guidance over the past 12 quarters. That makes it reasonably possible Apple could come in higher, but unless Wharton teaches a different definition of "likely" than I am accustomed to a 1-out-of-3 chance doesn't meet that criteria.

It is noteworthy that Apple never came in under the low end of their guidance. That would indicate Apple does tend to be closer to the high end of their guidance, so using the mid-point may not be the best way to do it.

Apple is guiding Q1 2019 revenue to be between $89B and $93B. That would be a range of 0.8% to 5.3% growth over the actual results last year. History indicates expectations should be toward the upper end. Could it be higher? Of course. Apple has beaten expectations before.​

Apple is likely to beat their guidance in an Xmas quarter, like they did last year. The dude said 3% growth, which is fiction because it's based on a number that likely will be beaten based on last Xmas and isn't even reported. We are talking about Christmas and although I haven't looked at years prior to last Xmas, Apple will likely be over the high end because this is a huge sales quarter.

All I'm arguing is that revenue growth won't be 3% and it's silly to compare midpoint of guidance in an Xmas quarter to an actual sales number in an Xmas quarter. They will be over the high end of guidance in this quarter, like they have been (just checked, the last 2 Xmas quarters).

 

[Brandhouse]

Kuo's prediction is somewhat curious given that he raised his early iPhone XR estimate a little less than a month ago and cited stronger demand than seen for the iPhone 8 last year with the potential for more stable demand over time.

Reliable Ming is putting a bet each way on a 2 horse race because he doesn't know if his inside tip is worth anything.

 

[falainber]

Unprecedentally, just released MacBook Air is already on sale (-100...150$) at B&H Photo. Sounds like Apple is starting to realize the limits of price rising policy. Good start, now give us BOGO on iPhone XR and someone may even buy it.

 

[bonze]

The problem is that Apple's implementation has the number of times it does the flicker low enough that it is on the edge of human eye perception, and some people pick up on that flicker.

You can stop the flickering without always using high brightness when in low light using the accessibility function under "Display Accommodations" to reduce the white point (85%-100%). Then you can apply the accessibility function that allows you to turn that feature on and off with a triple click of the side button. So you can easily turn it on or off when working in low light.

I'm including the link where I found this with some trepidation, since it appears that the blog is hosted by a Russian software company that deals in phone-cracking software. It may mean nothing, but in this day and age it pays to be cautious. The blog explains PWM and Apple's application of it very well and gives full details of how to use the accessibility features. https://blog.elcomsoft.com/2018/03/...to-stop-oled-flickering-in-just-three-clicks/

 

[trifid]

iPhone XR is boring, and XS is too expensive that's why.

The exciting iPhone would have been iPhone SE X

Consumers have spoken.