Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

[buststyles]

When you compare the XR to actual budget phones like the Pocophone f1, it’s shocking that Apple charge at least $749 for this device. I dread to think about how much iPhones will cost in 10 years time!

The YouTuber who did the pepsi challenge with the Xr and I believe the cheaper pococphone you mention(may have a different model..but..) with "better screen specs"(high ppi, 1080P) showed that screen specs did not matter and you get what you pay for as the Xr won easily.

 

[Michael Goff]

It must be nice to have a job where you can guess, then make another guess, probably be right half the time at most, and still get paid.

 

[Rogifan]

Now that Apple has stopped disclosing iPhone sales, we'll really never know. Convenient for them...

It didn’t matter when they did release sales. Wall Street has a narrative it’s wanted to believe for years and any rumor or data point that might support it they jump on. I remember one year a guy on CNBC threw his phone on the table and said “iIt’s just a gadget. Apple is a gadget maker. But what happens when someone else comes along and builds a better gadget?” So long as Wall Street believes there’s always someone out there who will build the better mouse trap they’re going to be nervous nellies around iPhone rumors. Which is why Apple has to start telling a different story like what the active install base is and how much they’re making off of each use (ARPU). Focusing on whether iPhone sales are up or down is no longer meaningful. But only Apple can get Wall Street to stop obsessing over iPhone sales.

 

[buststyles]

The Nokia Android phones with stock android and excellent build quality are also pretty impressive considering the price. They might not be as usable in 3 years like an iPhone but then you could buy maybe 3 or 4 of them for the same amount.

Also, if you're not buying it outright and paying for it over a 36 month contract you might as well get the top end model rather than the XR.

I would disagree with that. I find the XS max to large and the XS screen to narrow. The XR is the phone that best fit my needs.

 

[9081094]

Looking at the Huawei Mate 20, the design of the iPhone Xr makes more sense to me. Apple seems to have gone after the Chinese market with this iPhone, but failed.

Well, you should compare the Huawei Mate 20 Pro with the iPhone XS and not the XR. Because the iPhone XR is no match for the Huawei Mate 20 Pro. Even the top of the line iPhone can’t match the specs of the mate 20 Pro. Only the processor won’t be able to keep up with Apple’s. But no one won’t even notice in day to day use.

No wonder Apple is losing market share over here. You should be very dumb to buy an iPhone XR when you can get the Huawei Mate 20 Pro for the same price... oh well, as late long as Apple makes the most profits of them all (Cook’s way of thinking).

 

[sofila]

I posted data that is relevant as of this weekend and it's a FACT.

Kuo is GUESSING about the future, as most analysts do about unit sales. We've seen this wrong time and time again. This is a fact. It's literally impossible to know the demand for Apple's products. We do know Apple reports insane numbers and the analysts are almost always proven wrong when they bet against Apple.

It's even easier to throw out uneducated guesses about the future, be wrong, have no consequences, and then do it again.

Kuo is paid for his work. Who gives him money for this trust his/her opinion. Unless you're the one who's paying, you can argue as long as you want, but not going to change this.
I'm not talking about you specifically, but it seems that most of the users around here complaining about Kuo would like to be in the same position. Being paid for guessing, instead of spending a lot of free-time for just stating the obvious.

 

[2GoldFish]

FQ 2019 Q1

Make sure you are exactly right on your facts, because I know them better than anyone here.

In Q1 2018, Apple had just increased prices on iPhone significantly, so the increase was no surprise.

Apple GUIDED for $84-$87B in FY2018 Q1, the ACTUAL was $88.29B. Since we don't know the actual for FQ 2019 Q1, we have to say that they are guiding for 6.5% (not 3%) revenue growth, Apples to Apples. You can't compare actuals to guidance. You can compare guidance to guidance or actuals to actuals, which we don't have yet.

If the actual in FY 2019 Q1 comes in higher than $93B (likely since Apple always lowballs guidance) there could be significant growth. Remember, we are talking huge numbers, so even 6.5% revenue growth is huge. As the numbers get larger, the % growth increases become harder and harder.

Your numbers are right, and so are my.

"Apple achieved 12% of year-over-year growth in Q1 2018. But they are 'projecting' (if you do not like the word guiding) merely 3% year-over-year growth in Q1 2019."

Whether you take the higher or lower guidance is subjective. If you take the lower guidance of Q1 2019 ($89b), it would mean that Apple is heading for 0% year-over-year growth in Q1 2019. Hence, I used mid-point.

Everything is relative.

 

[Yojimbo007]

Some people said "it was a time" when the stock was at $205. They were wrong. What makes you think that you are not wrong too? It would be even better to invest in AAPL when it's at, say, $130, right?

Following your logic.. it can always be a better time right... why not 80—50- 10...

You will never have a crystal ball to know.. so at some point, given u have done your due diligence you pull the trigger and allow for your investment to mature.
One of the best ways to loose money is to constantly yoyo in and out reacting to every little ripple.

Now if you are a very short term investor or day-trader.. its a different ball game... a game which i don't understand.

 

[Baymowe335]

Kuo is paid for his work. Who gives him money for this trust his/her opinion. Unless you're the one who's paying, you can argue as long as you want, but not going to change this.
I'm not talking about you specifically, but it seems that most of the users around here complaining about Kuo would like to be in the same position. Being paid for guessing, instead of spending a lot of free-time for just stating the obvious.

Who cares if he's paid? Every analyst wrong about Apple sales figures are paid. The reason they throw so much garbage out is BECAUSE they are paid to do so BECAUSE people click these stories. Apple is one of the most manipulated stocks in the world and this is why.

You post one fake news article and it's copied endlessly because it works people into a frenzy, facts be damned.

What I'm pointing out is that they ARE guessing and in the past, Apple has proven them wrong. Apple recently traded at $233/share. Do you think anything happened in the last month has really changed about the business? These supply chain "checks" are the biggest joke, starting with the always wrong Nikkei.

BTW, Apple trades at 13X 2019 earnings, so let's not have the "stock is overvalued" argument because I'll direct you to AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, FB, NFLX, NVDA, AMD, and others that all trade significantly higher than 13X earnings.

The whole market is a turd, which is why the stock is down. Nothing to see here. Come back Feb 1 when the numbers are out and Apple beats (again).

 

[ccsicecoke]

My hands are big, but I still have no idea how anyone could think the XR is too big. Ever since I got my iPhone 6 Plus, I’ve never been able to go back to anything smaller.

My launch 7 Plus is starting to show signs of wear and tear and I’d consider replacing it with the 8 Plus over the XR any day, and that’s not even accounting for price. And as much as I want an XS Max, the PWM is too much for me.

He’s right about Huawei, too. Both their notebook and smartphone lineups are excellent right now. One of the only companies who might be able to turn me away from Apple.

I just went back with 4s and realized Steve Jobs was always right

 

[mi7chy]

Apple went too far with gimping the Xr to upsell the Xs. Apple should've taken the Xs and remove portrait camera, remove haptic engine and give less DRAM for $750 starting. They got greedy when they also downgraded the display to near 720p LCD and the final slap to the face is downgrading the fit and finish. It could've been a popular best seller but now it's turning out to be another iPhone 5c.

 

[Baymowe335]

Your numbers are right, and so are my.

"Apple achieved 12% of year-over-year growth in Q1 2018. But they are 'projecting' (if you do not like the word guiding) merely 3% year-over-year growth in Q1 2019."

Whether you take the higher or lower guidance is subjective. If you take the lower guidance of Q1 2019 ($84b), it would mean that Apple is heading for -5% year-over-year growth in Q1 2019. Hence, I used mid-point.

Everything is relative.

Our numbers are both right, but mine are analyzed correctly, yours aren't. You can't compare guidance to actuals. It's silly, makes no sense. When Apple reports actuals, come talk to me about y/y growth. Until then, the numbers the have reported are phenomenal.

Lower end guidance for Q1 2019 is $89B, not $84B. Lower end guidance for Q1 2018 was $84B, which would mean a 6% increase if you took low end on both.

You've lost all credibility.

 

[BeefCake 15]

Wait so should I upgrade from my 6 to the XR or no? Why are there so many complaints about it?

 

[Velin]

It must be nice to have a job where you can guess, then make another guess, probably be right half the time at most, and still get paid.

The people manning these desks have a lot of money on the line. Which one of these is true:

(1) Prop trading and private equity desks are "guessing."

(2) The desks put a tiny fraction of their capital to work in the field, gathering data and information about order flow, shipments, and cancellations. After receiving the information the prop trading desk positions the house's desired long/short position at advantageous prices; only after the prop desk trades are in place, the research note drops.

I know the answer. Do you?

 

[ob81]

I am not sure how long these phones have been out, but in my time buying Apple products, this is the first time that I have not seen ANY of the new phones in the wild within the first few days of release (still haven’t seen any). I work in tech, and no one at work has one, or is even talking about it. Someone somewhere is still buying these expensive phones, mostly on plans, and it hasn’t fully hit Apple yet that these prices are ridiculous. They are still profiting because they are playing the price creep long-game with the hikes in monthly premiums. Eventually people will wise up, and hopefully we see decent products for decent prices.

Just because you put updated tech in a product, it does not mean charge me more. All they have to do is keep making great products every 1-2 years, and they are set. The competition is blowing it as well by following Apple’s price scheme. Go cheaper and I will switch when my iPhone goes out. I am already priced out of the laptop and tablet market. I would have grabbed a SP if they didn’t cost just as much as an iPad/MacBook.

 

[Michael Goff]

The people manning these desks have a lot of money on the line. Which one of these is true:

(1) Prop trading and private equity desks are "guessing."

(2) The desks put a tiny fraction of their capital to work in the field, gathering data and information about order flow, shipments, and cancellations. After receiving the information the prop trading desk positions the house's desired long/short position at advantageous prices; only after the prop desk trades are in place, the research note drops.

I know the answer. Do you?

Nope. I don't.

 

[2GoldFish]

Our numbers are both right, but mine are analyzed correctly, yours aren't. You can't compare guidance to actuals. It's silly, makes no sense. When Apple reports actuals, come talk to me about y/y growth. Until then, the numbers the have reported are phenomenal.

Lower end guidance for Q1 2019 is $89B, not $84B. Lower end guidance for Q1 2018 was $84B, which would mean a 6% increase if you took low end on both.

You've lost all credibility.

You can twist however you want to analyse data to suit your need.

If Apple's guiding is correct, that would mean that their growth have significantly reduced (-75%), on a year-over year basis.

So Apple is "running out of steam" after all.

 

[Act3]

.

I am not sure how long these phones have been out, but in my time buying Apple products, this is the first time that I have not seen ANY of the new phones in the wild within the first few days of release (still haven’t seen any). I work in tech, and no one at work has one, or is even talking about it. Someone somewhere is still buying these expensive phones, mostly on plans, and it hasn’t fully hit Apple yet that these prices are ridiculous. They are still profiting because they are playing the price creep long-game with the hikes in monthly premiums. Eventually people will wise up, and hopefully we see decent products for decent prices.

Just because you put updated tech in a product, it does not mean charge me more. All they have to do is keep making great products every 1-2 years, and they are set. The competition is blowing it as well by following Apple’s price scheme. Go cheaper and I will switch when my iPhone goes out. I am already priced out of the laptop and tablet market. I would have grabbed a SP if they didn’t cost just as much as an iPad/MacBook.

The Xr was released just over 2 weeks ago, yet they can be found in inventory just about anywhere that sells them, and in most of the colors. Same can be said with the overpriced new iPad pro that just came out last week.

 

[840quadra]

Things have leveled off yet prices have skyrocketed

The original iPhone was $599 for 8gb (~$740 today) AND required a 2-year contract. I’d say the prices now are decent, especially considering how much more of a device these are.

 

[sofila]

Who cares if he's paid? Every analyst wrong about Apple sales figures are paid. The reason they throw so much garbage out is BECAUSE they are paid to do so BECAUSE people click these stories. Apple is one of the most manipulated stocks in the world and this is why.

You post one fake news article and it's copied endlessly because it works people into a frenzy, facts be damned.

What I'm pointing out is that they ARE guessing and in the past, Apple has proven them wrong. Apple recently traded at $233/share. Do you think anything happened in the last month has really changed about the business? These supply chain "checks" are the biggest joke, starting with the always wrong Nikkei.

BTW, Apple trades at 13X 2019 earnings, so let's not have the "stock is overvalued" argument because I'll direct you to AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, FB, NFLX, NVDA, AMD, and others that all trade significantly higher than 13X earnings.

The whole market is a turd, which is why the stock is down. Nothing to see here. Come back Feb 1 when the numbers are out and Apple beats (again).

I'm just talking about Kuo's supposed reliability , I really don't care about stock, market manipulation. I just know that all the money I've earned (or not lost) with stock market was made doing exactly the opposite of analists' advices, see 2012 and 2015 AAPL dips. Every stupid analist bullying about buy buy buy and see what happened. Remember it's you the one who choose to filter informations for yourself. Or do you really believe that every Kuo's sneeze impacts a gazillion dollars stock value?

 

[ChrisMoBro]

Over here the iPhone XR starts at € 859 and to consider that you can buy flagship devices from any other brands with more capacity, better camera, OLED for far less. Even considering that Android today is as good and in many cases even better as iOS (freedom and openness + better services like google maps, voice recognition and lots more). I don’t know what’s apple’s plan and I certainly don’t get the slow evolving speed of their soft-, hardware. If Apple wants to become the Gucci and Prada from the high tech industry, it better gets its act together.

I just dumped my Apple TV in favor of my LG’s webos 4.0 and don’t regret it. It’s offering all the capabilities and more and talks nice to all my devices.

I’m only willing to get into a walled garden again, if that walled garden is up to date and evolving like the rest of the industry. If it’s more expensive, it has to give me a reason to be more expensive. Apple has proven these last 7+ years not to be thrustworthy partner for me: time for a divorce.

The only reason I'm staying with Apple is iMessage and my Apple Watch. If I find alternatives for the latter, I'd possibly think of switching - I feel constricted by Apple.

 

[javanni]

I think people do, which is why they bought the XS Max - iirc sales numbers were ok/good for that. The issue with this model is that it's just "the cheap version". Apple's lineup should be a $1000 iPhone XS with 128gb of storage, an iPhone SE2 with 64gb of storage, and an iPhone XS Max for $1200 with 256gb of storage (roughly speaking for all). There are a lot of people who want the XS series, a lot of people who want an SE-type phone, but there doesn't seem to be a real need for the XR.

Well, apparently in China big phablets are popular. I think the XR is aimed squarely at that market, more than US/Europe.

 

[johnnygee]

Quants are making money on the downside. The stock will soon be rising again. It's a pattern that keeps repeating.

 

[ChrisMoBro]

The YouTuber who did the pepsi challenge with the Xr and I believe the cheaper pococphone you mention(may have a different model..but..) with "better screen specs"(high ppi, 1080P) showed that screen specs did not matter and you get what you pay for as the Xr won easily.

But the Pocophone costs 1/4 to 1/3 of the XR, so the fact that it's close is huge. Is the XR really 3 times the better phone in order to justify the price? Nope. iOS is the only reason I'm staying with Apple... for now.

 

[Guda.FL]

First thing that I thought of when they made the announcement of Xr is 5c.

Judging by my circle of friends - out of 10, two of us got the Xs. Feedback from others is 7 or 8 is good enough and Xr is not enough of an upgrade & Xs is too expensive for the storage they needed.

Our family's upgrade through At&t was going to equal to 3/4 of my car lease payment. Thinking in that perspective...even though it's solid tech. It's a tough call for many these days.