Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

[Meandmunch]

"the most breakable iphone ever". No thanks. I want my SE2.

Does the "2" stand for second more breakable phone?

Jokes aside. I just got my new iPad Pro and it reminded how much I loved the look of the iPhone 4s and 5s. They should have continued to "own" that look. And to your point they were light years more durable than what we have now.

You could grip it so much easier and even though it is silly, stand it on it's edge to take a picture.

 

[frank_hnd]

since when does mn stand for Million?

 

[DevNull0]

Sorry. Pulse Wave Modulation. Thats how they save battery life and dim the display

Pulse Width Modulation. Not sure what Pulse Wave Modulation would even mean.

 

[jpn]

kuo as an analyst has shown no particular useful financial investment insights. ever.
his ability to translate supply chain source info (which is good) into financial advise for his company's customers is historically worthless.

 

[Lone Deranger]

So many concerns about Apple’s greedy price increases. And rightfully so. Apple needs a biiiiig slice of humble pie.

 

[DakotaGuy]

If it fails as badly as the 5C did, what's that say about the XS and Max which its going to outsell?

I actually doubt it will outsell the XS and especially the XS Max. Most people who have tight finances will be looking for a discounted 7, 8 or Android phone. People that do have plenty of money which is a large percentage of Apple customers will want the best phone if they are going to shell out the money for a new phone. $250-350 doesn’t make that much difference to them. If the XR was priced lower at something like $500 then it would sell to a different customer and be more successful. At the current prices it’s just too close to the XS and XS Max while providing an inferior design with less features.

Of course Apple isn’t really going to break out numbers anymore so I guess we’ll never know.

 

[Kiorr]

I'm hoping that they release an iPhone XR mini also that is either the same size or smaller than the iPhone 8.

But with smaller bezels than the xR

 

[Fthree]

It reminds me of posts where people are keeping their old iPhone 5 or whatever because they aren't happy with the new offerings. Very few are switching. Because of the software even old iPhones are better than the latest offerings from competitors.

Do people buy Pocophones and keep them for 5 years? I think there is a cost to the cheaper phones that is hidden. People are more free to change them but they pay to do it.

I can't think of another company where people would hang on to their old phone and not jump on the latest and greatest. The conversation amusingly enough waivers between Apple is intentionally making their phones obsolete to they are doomed because the phones last too long.

I am no expert but I look at some of the numbers Baymowe cites and also look at the P/E which makes AAPL look like a reasonable value. If AAPL is over priced right now given the numbers and the fact they have sound fundamentals I can't even imagine how bad things are at other companies. As pointed out with such huge numbers can't increase percentage wise as easily. However we are still talking billions upon billions of profits quarter after quarter. If some people sell off because they aren't satisfied with numbers that aren't anything short of miraculous others step in and make more reasonable profits.

I am new to stocks but can anybody tell me why anybody in their right mind would sell off their Apple at this moment?

Traders will sell and buy on the momentum. Investors will hold through all this BS. As a share holder for years I can tell you that information like this comes and goes and the people who tune it out make money. Tune out the noise and look back in 5 years and see how wealthy you will become. As you said AAPL is the best hold at the moment as profits are consistently going up (HUGE).

 

[I7guy]

So many concerns about Apple’s greedy price increases. And rightfully so. Apple needs a biiiiig slice of humble pie.

People have been saying this for years, and maybe one day it will come. But right now there is much momentum and people who don't want to pay apple's prices have plenty of other places to look -- just like with every other manufacturer in every other industry.

 

[purged]

Absolutely.

 

[MNJohn]

Noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has issued a new research note today, cutting his shipment estimates for the iPhone XR due to several factors. He believes that some of the decline will be offset by higher demand for iPhone XS and older "legacy" models, but he is still reducing his overall iPhone shipment forecasts by 15-20 percent for the first quarter of 2019.

Kuo believes that iPhone shipments for the current quarter will be in the same 75-80 million range he previously predicted, while he has lowered his first-quarter estimate to 47-52 million from a previous range of 55-60 million.

Kuo's prediction is somewhat curious given that he raised his early iPhone XR estimate a little less than a month ago and cited stronger demand than seen for the iPhone 8 last year with the potential for more stable demand over time.

Apple's stock price is down over 4 percent today, outpacing broader market declines and falling to its lowest point since the end of July.

Article Link: Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

[doublepost=1542072153][/doublepost]Hey, Apple, your phones are just too damn expensive. Even people who can afford them are hesitant to shell out that much money for incremental improvement.

 

[nottooshabby]

For me this has been the first upgrade cycle without any usable carrier promotions. The 3, 4, 5 and 6 were $299 with the carrier subsidies, and you could sell your old phone for around $200, making the upgrade fee less than $100. The iPhone 7 was a killer deal with the $650 trade-in promotion they were giving with the trade-in of the 6. This year, you had to add a line to get a BOGO on the XR, or the $700 off on the XS. The XS is appealing but having to jump from 64GB to 256GB for an extra $150 is tough to swallow when my 7 has 128GB but not even close to full, but more than 64GB.

 

[coolfactor]

I'm firmly in the camp where switching platforms from year to year would be a nightmare. My contacts have been seamlessly syncing for 17 years, from .Mac to MobileMe to iCloud. This has been a far better experience than Google's joke of Contact syncing.

Then we have Keychain. I'm trying to remember what life was like before iCloud Keychain. Password management on iOS and macOS is so seamless and effortless. Sign up to a site on a Mac. A strong password is generated for me. And then immediately sign in with that saved password in the corresponding iOS app. No password entry required. Password syncs instantly across all registered devices. Nothing compares to this in the Android world.

I believe, even in 2018, that many consumers still expect technology to be difficult, given the mass popularity of Windows and now Android. They expect that getting a new device means starting over again and they are willing to go down that path each and every time. No way for me. My time is too valuable.

The XR is a genius device! I can't believe that I can get one for $0 down from my provider (Bell). I honestly thought that a higher priced device would not be "free" (at the entry level), but I was wrong. This makes the XR very attractive to consumers, and anyone thinking of switching to an Android instead of choosing the XR is only asking for the pain they deserve.

 

[ralpa]

No because of the thickness

 

[coolfactor]

Exactly!

I love my XS, it's the ideal size for me. But we've been waiting for a replacement for my wife's iPhone SE – and the XR is just too big. I know that bigger phones are a big thing (ha!) especially in the Asian markets where Apple wants to grow, but a smaller XR would be a day 1 buy for my wife. *shrug*

This is the only thing worrying me about XR... I've heard several times that the larger size is a concern. The SE is also my preferred size, and I was hoping the XR would directly target this customer segment, but it seems they missed the target by making it just a bit too big.
[doublepost=1542073128][/doublepost]

No because of the thickness

The thickness of the XR?

If it's too thick for you, that's bizarre. So many people complain that phones were getting too thin, compromising on durability and battery life.

if it's too thin... no, I can't see you complaining that it's too thin.

 

[mi7chy]

Another reason estimates are cut is due to the premature death of the notch with notchless competition coming out. The ZTE Nubia X is by far the most innovative and interesting solution out for notchless phone with dual screen and side fingerprint scanners and priced less than iPhone Xr.

 

[VMMan]

iPhones are expensive, old models are good enough, and there are a lot of competing phones. So unless the new iPhones are cheaper, the newer iOS versions demanding of better hardware, or significantly different/better than competitors, sales will probably be rangebound.

 

[jonnyb098]

How is selling 70 million iPhone XR units deem it a failure? Maybe it won’t be a smash hit but it’s by no means a failure. Considering it’s 90 percent of an iPhone XS Max at 350 cheaper it seems like a win for ......70 million customers.
[doublepost=1542074041][/doublepost]

Isn't it clear to you all that the XR is a long game phone? What are people on budgets going to be picking up next year and the year after that? The 7 and 8 design aren't sticking around forever.

Also, anecdotally, everyone around me wants a XR. Most of those people got the 8 last year though, so it remains a want and not a purchase. Yet.

Exactly this......the XR is a massive upgrade from a 6 or 7 series phone. I paid $749 for a 64GB iPhone 6S in 2015. Now I get an XR for that same 749 and it’s a massive upgrade in every way. Specifically all screen, very very long battery life and insanely breathtaking camera. Everyone who’s seen my photos including portrait mode has been blown away as well.

 

[zeesix]

It doesn't really surprise me. The XR makes little sense to me.

Also, generally Apple is abusing the good will they've built over many years by nickel and diming to the extreme.

On top of that, their product decisions have been questionable, it seems like all the new products they release have one major annoying regression in terms of functionality. Whether that is the touchbar and worse keyboard for the MBP or only releasing phablets on the iPhone side.

I know I'm no longer the target audience, but I used to buy every new iPhone, but now Apple doesn't make a product I want anymore (too big). I also get free MBP upgrades from work, but I'm still rocking my 2015 model because of the annoying touchbar.

I guess one thing to praise them for is that they build quality products. My old hardware is still performing quite well after a lot of usage. So maybe I should be thankful that they don't entice me to spend more money.

 

[ralpa]

This is the only thing worrying me about XR... I've heard several times that the larger size is a concern. The SE is also my preferred size, and I was hoping the XR would directly target this customer segment, but it seems they missed the target by making it just a bit too big.
[doublepost=1542073128][/doublepost]

The thickness of the XR?

If it's too thick for you, that's bizarre. So many people complain that phones were getting too thin, compromising on durability and battery life.

if it's too thin... no, I can't see you complaining that it's too thin.

Because it is thicker than both the XS models and I don’t understand why Apple made the phone like that.

 

[Aston441]

Another reason estimates are cut is due to the premature death of the notch with notchless competition coming out. The ZTE Nubia X is by far the most innovative and interesting solution out for notchless phone with dual screen and side fingerprint scanners and priced less than iPhone Xr.

Ok that phone is amazing. Holy holy!

 

[TitanicManDC]

I'm sure that part of the problem is that when Apple calls it the "budget" iPhone, people expect SE prices. The average consumer "Starting at $749" and they are shocked. When it's called the "budget iPhone," it needs to be a budget phone.

 

[Aston441]

How is selling 70 million iPhone XR units deem it a failure? Maybe it won’t be a smash hit but it’s by no means a failure. Considering it’s 90 percent of an iPhone XS Max at 350 cheaper it seems like a win for ......70 million customers.
[doublepost=1542074041][/doublepost]
Exactly this......the XR is a massive upgrade from a 6 or 7 series phone. I paid $749 for a 64GB iPhone 6S in 2015. Now I get an XR for that same 749 and it’s a massive upgrade in every way. Specifically all screen, very very long battery life and insanely breathtaking camera. Everyone who’s seen my photos including portrait mode has been blown away as well.

I compared the XR to the 8 plus in store.

The XR screen is a disgrace.

They have the manufactures of the 8 plus screens already making high PPI LCD for four years. How pathetic they went back under 400PPI for a new model. Shameful.

 

[ryanwarsaw]

Bought 10 more at $192.80. lol I can't stop.

 

[617660]

Bought 10 more at $192.80. lol I can't stop.

Sorry but you are catching a falling knife.