Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

[kiseong]

When I use iPhone 6 it’s too big for me. So I moved to SE.
This year every brand new iPhone are even bigger then 6 size.
I really dislike what Apple’s doing now.

 

[dilbert99]

Prices haven't really gone up just the dollar is so strong right now but that won't last forever.

In Australia, the top iPhone has gone up 125% in 6 years, 62% in price gouging, and 63% in currency drops of the AUD vs USD.

 

[Winni]

Uh-oh. Almost looks like the XR is going to be a repeat of the iPhone 5c. I thought people loved phablets?

They do. But when I can buy an extremely powerful Xiaomi Mi A2 with a 5.99" screen for around 200 Euros, I really cannot find --any-- rationale to justify buying a phone that costs six times as much. And the iPhone really is not remotely that much 'better' than Xiaomi's Android One phone that they price difference would be tolerable. It's just decadent to spend that much money on a phone.

 

[urmaster]

For me, all the products are linked. I like having my data sync'd easily between my iPad, phone and laptop. However, as I start to replace some of the software (keychain to Bitwarden, Safari to Firefox) coupled with the fact I don't think the newer laptops or iPads are value for money, then once I decide to switch one device away from the Apple ecosystem, the others lose their main advantage pretty much immediately. After which it comes down solely to price, and Apple never wins.

At the moment I have a 1st gen iPad mini (which is just about hanging on to life), a late-2013 MBP (which runs great, albeit needing a new battery) and an iPhone 6S (ditto). Once one goes, it'll be like dominoes.

I don't want to change though. I'm hoping a decent laptop is unveiled before mine needs replacing, I quite like the XR but find it over-priced, and I'm considering ditching the tablet completely as there's no new mini and the Pros are over-engineered for what I'd use one for.

Hmm - three paragraphs just to say I'm on the fence

I was in a similar situation, iPad mini 3, iPhone 6s and a 2014 MBP.

I've sold the MacBook pro and will hackintosh when I need macOS again. I have no intention of buying another tablet; like you said nothing modern in the lineup that makes a good casual/home device. Lastly the phone options don't appeal to me either; I have multiple devices and headphones so don't want to lose the headphone jack and to be honest I'm not enjoying the battery life on iOS devices.

These new iPhones are rather expensive for what is a very similar user experience - not counting weird gestures that I also dislike.

 

[dilbert99]

Again, no one but Apple knows how iPhone is doing and all sales data has been nothing but positive from Apple. Apple sold MORE iPhones in 2018 than 2017 at far higher prices. They don’t need huge unit sales row then with their pricing power and shift to services.

Their service increases has come from 1 source - google to be the default search engine.
Apple sold 6% fewer iPhones in 2018 compared to 2016

 

[kazmac]

I would like a smaller phone at a lower price point with an iPhone + sized screen resolution. I do not want or need a larger phone anymore nor all the bells and whistles. And certainly not at those price points.

 

[TallManNY]

In Australia, the top iPhone has gone up 125% in 6 years, 62% in price gouging, and 63% in currency drops of the AUD vs USD.

That is some brutal drop in value for the AUD. Do Australians need currency hedges?

 

[Fthree]

It could be worse I could have spent it on an iPhone XS Max.

Actually the max could have been better. Probably would ha e saved you a few bucks today

 

[MacBH928]

Why is Apple increasing their prices so much when competitors are offering similar technologies for less? I don't get it..

smartphones are reaching similar state to the PC where it will last you much longer due its high tech is more than enough for almost all tasks. The "90s PC" phase for the smartphones are over. A smartphone from 2 years ago will last you few years ahead and it can do all the browsing, texting, video+audio, and even games that you want.

 

[plhsnt]

Apple has become like Blackberry was, a year before their collapse.
Too little too late, and for absurd prices.

 

[tito2020]

"the most breakable iphone ever". No thanks. I want my SE2.

New iPhone coming out soon

 

[dilbert99]

That is some brutal drop in value for the AUD. Do Australians need currency hedges?

Couldn't tell you, i'm not an expert.

I think the Aussie dollar hasn't always been high compared to the dollar, but since I moved here it was around parity for quite a few years now gone from parity to about 72c on the dollar.

 

[oldoneeye]

Every year, apple products get more expensive to buy, more expensive to repair and more fragile - fix that and I'll start buying again .....

 

[skinned66]

Well I guess we know why Apple won't be announcing total sales anymore or whatever it was they said they wouldn't be doing anymore.

 

[Ermir444]

Not surprising at all. The XR looks downright cheap compared to XS and XS Max. The screen is shockingly bad if you have anywhere near normal eyesight. Muddy text, inferior viewing angles and thick bezels make it look downward cheap. I believe the iPhone 8 and especially the 8+ are a much better value for people looking for an entry level iPhone.

Multiple colors actually work against it, because now people know for sure you have the "cheaper" iPhone because you couldn't afford the XS/XS Max. Its like buying a Porsche Boxter because you could not afford the 911.

 

[Ted13]

I think people do, which is why they bought the XS Max - iirc sales numbers were ok/good for that. The issue with this model is that it's just "the cheap version". Apple's lineup should be a $1000 iPhone XS with 128gb of storage, an iPhone SE2 with 64gb of storage, and an iPhone XS Max for $1200 with 256gb of storage (roughly speaking for all). There are a lot of people who want the XS series, a lot of people who want an SE-type phone, but there doesn't seem to be a real need for the XR.

Sometimes I don't think Apple understands their market. Make high-quality, repairable, expensive but not overpriced stuff that makes my life better/easier and you've got me for life. Cancelling the Time Capsule/AirPort Express, not updating the Mac lineup, and jacking up the price of the iPhones isn't a long-term winning strategy.

I agree very much that cancelling the Time Capsule/AirPort Express along with dropping digital (TOSLink) audio in/out from new Macs is a big mistake. I also agree that there should be an iPhone SE 2.

That said, I am not at all sure that the SE was more popular than the XR. Also - not at all sure that most people who bought the SE outside first world countries did so for size - almost all probably did for lower price, and wished they could have gotten a XS Max sized iPhone instead. It is here in the US & maybe Europe that some of us want small phones.

To me the XS is a huge improvement from the iPhone 6/7/8 Plus because it is smaller with an even better camera. If an iPhone SE 2 had a dual lens camera equal to the XS and a maximum 512GB storage I would have bought it instead of the XS. But I am probably a tiny, tiny minority there.

 

[pika2000]

So why did people buy more iPhones in 2018 than 2017 at an average price of $750, up from $650?

I’m not saying people aren’t buying iPhones. I just said that I can agree with that analysis. It makes more sense than the false indicators like what these analysts are concluding from.

In fact, I can guess that the XS/XS Max are selling more in Asia than the XR. Just like how the X at $1k was selling more than Apple expected. In Asia, phones have become a status symbol, so if one is looking to get an Apple iPhone, one would probably get the flagship all the way.

 

[rols]

Sorry. Pulse Wave Modulation. Thats how they save battery life and dim the display

No that's how you achieve x% brightness with something which can only be 100% on or 100% off, you flash it on and off beyond the point the human eye can (supposedly) detect it.

Nothing to do with battery life at all.

 

[Emanuel Rodriguez]

I think people do, which is why they bought the XS Max - iirc sales numbers were ok/good for that. The issue with this model is that it's just "the cheap version". Apple's lineup should be a $1000 iPhone XS with 128gb of storage, an iPhone SE2 with 64gb of storage, and an iPhone XS Max for $1200 with 256gb of storage (roughly speaking for all). There are a lot of people who want the XS series, a lot of people who want an SE-type phone, but there doesn't seem to be a real need for the XR.

Sometimes I don't think Apple understands their market. Make high-quality, repairable, expensive but not overpriced stuff that makes my life better/easier and you've got me for life. Cancelling the Time Capsule/AirPort Express, not updating the Mac lineup, and jacking up the price of the iPhones isn't a long-term winning strategy.

They've forgotten what made them a success: The ecosystem. The larger the ecosystem, the more integrated and better the experience, and the more your customers will stick with your products. Apple should not have gotten rid of the Time Capsule or Airport Extreme, and they do need to start putting more of a focus on their Mac lineup as well. I'd appreciate it if they'd get rid of that new keyboard too, but I doubt that'll happen.

 

[MacManiac1]

Life of "analysts" appears to be very difficult. First they "predict" sales using huge ranges and then they keep updating those figures every two weeks. Kuo went from a 55-60m Q1 prediction to 47-52m (and from 100m LTD to 70m) lol.

And we will never know if he is correct or not since Apple is no longer releasing iPhone units sold numbers.

 

[vvs14]

Vote with your wallets. The only vote that counts in the marketplace.

 

[Rocco83]

I might be alone, but I love my XR. Probably my favorite phone and I’ve had all releases since the 4. Different strokes for different folks.

I was happy to be able to buy what I wanted with all the accessories for under 1k out the door. I know that price tag scares people away, but I use my phone more for work than my laptop, desktop, or any other aid.

Why should I feel the need to spend more on those devices than the one I use the most? If it’s out of your price range, find something that fits your budget. Don’t whine about the price.

I want an Audi R8, but I don’t whine that it’s not the same price as a Kia. Buy what you can afford and move on.

 

[ipponrg]

Why is Apple increasing their prices so much when competitors are offering similar technologies for less? I don't get it..

smartphones are reaching similar state to the PC where it will last you much longer due its high tech is more than enough for almost all tasks. The "90s PC" phase for the smartphones are over. A smartphone from 2 years ago will last you few years ahead and it can do all the browsing, texting, video+audio, and even games that you want.

Because they live in their own bubble which may pop. They make good products, but you can’t irrationally keep gouging the consumer and not expect backlash. By gouging I mean, indirectly bragging about your average selling price. It’s a rhetoric that is rubbing salt on a consumer’s wounds but works well for pleasing big financial investors.

It gets worse every release the last few years.

 

[thekeyring]

No wonder! The XS is too big, too heavy und much too expensive. The XR is much too big, much too heavy und too expensive. Both are much, much too damageable, when falling down.

Ha - remember the days when everyone here said "Apple, we don't care about thinness! Stop Jony Ive!"
[doublepost=1542117412][/doublepost]

It's simply too expensive. All Apple's phones are now. Here in the UK, wages have been stagnant for years; we simply cannot absorb these 20-25% price increases on top of the exchange rate pressure we're seeing due to Brexit.

This might be relevant in a discussion about home ownership. But come off it, almost everyone here in the UK can afford the £60 per month needed to own a brand new £999 iPhone XS. True, there are a few people living right on the edge, who can't.

 

[arkitect]

Ha - remember the days when everyone here said "Apple, we don't care about thinness! Stop Jony Ive!"
[doublepost=1542117412][/doublepost]

This might be relevant in a discussion about home ownership. But come off it, almost everyone here in the UK can afford the £60 per month needed to own a brand new £999 iPhone XS. True, there are a few people living right on the edge, who can't.

It should read:
"almost everyone here in London can afford the £60 per month needed to own a brand new £999 iPhone XS."
And even that is a stretch.
Outside of the M25 and its commuter satellites your statement is just dead wrong.