Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

[dogslobber]

Life of "analysts" appears to be very difficult. First they "predict" sales using huge ranges and then they keep updating those figures every two weeks. Kuo went from a 55-60m Q1 prediction to 47-52m (and from 100m LTD to 70m) lol.

They’re using formulae which plugs in numbers from their channel checks. If they know to produce the widget took X count from a supplier then if it decreases or increases for X then that is an accurate predictor. Channel check data is real and surprisingly accurate nowadays.

 

[Jimrod]

Ha - remember the days when everyone here said "Apple, we don't care about thinness! Stop Jony Ive!"

Not the same thing though - thinness wasn't helping, it was limiting battery size and ergonomically no better. The iPhone 3G felt great in the hand and was something like 11mm thick! No-one particularly wants heavier phones, some want small, some large but heavy is always worse, shape more important than being thin.

 

[magbarn]

It's not just Kuo sounding alarm bells and causing APPL stock drops:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ewansp...-danger-decision-revenue-margin/#3829711c0ce5

 

[fathergll]

If Kuo owns Apple stock, that would be a huge conflict of interest.

Agreed. He can get arrested for outsider trading

 

[lkrupp]

When Apple made smaller iPhones people complained that the market wanted big iPhones. Now that Apple is making big iPhones people are complaining that the market wants smaller iPhones. I also take note that this thread has grown larger and larger by posts desperately wanting to confirm personal biases about Apple, its philosophy, its pricing, its reason for being.

 

[PaulRustad007]

And in January Apple will post recored profits for Q4, again...beating last years numbers. Stocks will go up.....and then down. Then up. Then down...at least they were over 1T for almost two months.....

 

[[AUT] Thomas]

This is such an inferior product to the XS/Max.

Nope. Not being superior to the XS doesn't mean it's inferior. Phones these days are DIFFERENT -but not necessarily better. Same goes for TouchID vs FaceID.

I think it is somewhat of a comment on the smartphone market overall too. The market is essentially saturated, and people are holding onto devices longer since speed / software compatibility / and features have more or less leveled off.

This. Especially with prices having skyrocketed. 1000 bucks for a phone? Increases the life cycle from 2 to 3 years.

I think Apple understands their customers quite well. However, I also believe that the iPhone XR was never meant to be a big seller in North America or Europe. I think it was targeted at China first and maybe India second.

I never understood that logic. The XR isn't that much cheaper. Dual SIM is also available in the Max. Nothing particular in that phone to target the asian market. Except the colors. Although, for Japan, should have some RGB LEDs in the frame that go off when someone calls. (Not suitable for people tending to have epileptic seizures)

Kuo speaks: Apple stock loses billions

Question is how Kuo or his friends profit. I'd be surprised if no one in his inner circle shorted Apple just very rece.

The Rent is too high.

*damn

One thing that could hurt the XR is all the ugly colours, it devalues it like the 5c. They should have just done silver and black.

Solution: don't by a colored iPhone.
Why the **** should MORE colors hurt the sales of the phone? Your logic is flawed. Especially since the color is one of the main reasons I ordered the red XR. Dual-SIM alone wouldn't have done it nor the non-existing Apple Pay or FaceID. Frankly, I'm sick of all the same black, dark blue or white/silver designs.

 

[L-Viz]

If we look at last months stock curve, we see a steep decline, despite all the new products.


There are two main reasons for this.

First, the new hardware is ridiculously expensive. Mac mini should start at 499. iPad pro should start at 499. iPhone XS should be 899, the max version 999.

Second, there is no new iPhone SE2, which should start at 399.



If Tim doesn't set the course right, Apple will go down fast. Reminds me a little of the pre-2nd-Jobs-era with ridiculous overpriced and confusing product line ups...

 

[smallcoffee]

I agree very much that cancelling the Time Capsule/AirPort Express along with dropping digital (TOSLink) audio in/out from new Macs is a big mistake. I also agree that there should be an iPhone SE 2.

That said, I am not at all sure that the SE was more popular than the XR. Also - not at all sure that most people who bought the SE outside first world countries did so for size - almost all probably did for lower price, and wished they could have gotten a XS Max sized iPhone instead. It is here in the US & maybe Europe that some of us want small phones.

To me the XS is a huge improvement from the iPhone 6/7/8 Plus because it is smaller with an even better camera. If an iPhone SE 2 had a dual lens camera equal to the XS and a maximum 512GB storage I would have bought it instead of the XS. But I am probably a tiny, tiny minority there.

Oh the SE is likely not even close to as popular, but it filled the right niche and I think that is important.

 

[newdeal]

Well I love tech and all but I am fine with my 6S and can't see a reason to upgrade. It has touchID and a headphone jack both of which I use and like. It still works perfectly, is fast, takes fine photos. What is there out there that would really make me want to upgrade? They keep releasing faster cpus but the OS is still not taking advantage of them. I am not going to take pro photos even with a DSLR so the camera is good enough for me as it is

 

[Justanotherfanboy]

Why is it whenever apple is expected to sell less items, either Tim Cook or other analysts blame either a trade war, or some other reason, but never say that the consumer is slowly waking up to see that apple's old tech isn't enough to sell as much as it used to?

These silly comments are always good for a laugh!

Apple’s 5 year old TouchID tech still hasn’t been duplicated... as a matter of fact, I believe- for 5 years running iOS is the ONLY mobile platform that you can use biometrics for financial transactions.
It’s hilarious to see all the other guys unable to match Apple’s “legacy” tech, even as they abandon it for the next step!
Lol, or maybe the A12... which runs rampant over the “competition”, so much that reporters have ceased bothering comparing it to direct competitors, instead pitting it (favorably, I might add) against desktop CPUs.... it’s old tech??
The TrueDepth camera system, that will also likely not be matched during its entire existence, is that the “old tech” you’re referring to??
I tell ya what- if the ONLY thing you have in your arsenal is nitpicking that the XR has a (phenomenal) LCD display, rather than an OLED... the only thing old is your tired & trite complaint.

 

[groadyho]

These silly comments are always good for a laugh!

Apple’s 5 year old TouchID tech still hasn’t been duplicated... as a matter of fact, I believe- for 5 years running iOS is the ONLY mobile platform that you can use biometrics for financial transactions.
It’s hilarious to see all the other guys unable to match Apple’s “legacy” tech, even as they abandon it for the next step!
Lol, or maybe the A12... which runs rampant over the “competition”, so much that reporters have ceased bothering comparing it to direct competitors, instead pitting it (favorably, I might add) against desktop CPUs.... it’s old tech??
The TrueDepth camera system, that will also likely not be matched during its entire existence, is that the “old tech” you’re referring to??
I tell ya what- if the ONLY thing you have in your arsenal is nitpicking that the XR has a (phenomenal) LCD display, rather than an OLED... the only thing old is your tired & trite complaint.

Not true at all. Have you never used a galaxy , been using galaxy pay for years, their iris scanner and fingerprint sensor came be used to pay for any mobile transaction. Samsung pay you can use anywhere visa is accepted not just where apple pay is. Crazy talk

 

[sofila]

This might be relevant in a discussion about home ownership. But come off it, almost everyone here in the UK can afford the £60 per month needed to own a brand new £999 iPhone XS. True, there are a few people living right on the edge, who can't.

It should read:
"almost everyone here in London can afford the £60 per month needed to own a brand new £999 iPhone XS."
And even that is a stretch.
Outside of the M25 and its commuter satellites your statement is just dead wrong.

I would say that every statement containing "almost everyone" is dead wrong, whatever the argument is

 

[fathergll]

If we look at last months stock curve, we see a steep decline, despite all the new products.


There are two main reasons for this.

First, the new hardware is ridiculously expensive. Mac mini should start at 499. iPad pro should start at 499. iPhone XS should be 899, the max version 999.

Second, there is no new iPhone SE2, which should start at 399.



If Tim doesn't set the course right, Apple will go down fast. Reminds me a little of the pre-2nd-Jobs-era with ridiculous overpriced and confusing product line ups...

Apple is in a tough spot. They need to answer to share holders and growth was going to slow down no matter what as tech matures. Refer to newdeal post above "Well I love tech and all but I am fine with my 6S and can't see a reason to upgrade."

Add in the competition is getting very step. Apple's strategy is to price these devices for the high end to make up for the inevitable decline in device growth(which is why they will stop reporting unit numbers as that will not accurately reflect how much revenue they are generating).


I do agree the product lines are confusing and Jobs would never allow a Macbook and Macbook Air to exist at the same time. Apple's pricing strategy will work for a bit but they are in real danger in a major recession hits(something much bigger than '08) and consumers will not be able to afford these devices along with their organic foods and $4 coffees.

 

[ryanwarsaw]

Actually the max could have been better. Probably would ha e saved you a few bucks today

Well we shall see which one is worth more in a year. lol

 

[Blaze4G]

These silly comments are always good for a laugh!

Apple’s 5 year old TouchID tech still hasn’t been duplicated... as a matter of fact, I believe- for 5 years running iOS is the ONLY mobile platform that you can use biometrics for financial transactions.
It’s hilarious to see all the other guys unable to match Apple’s “legacy” tech, even as they abandon it for the next step!
Lol, or maybe the A12... which runs rampant over the “competition”, so much that reporters have ceased bothering comparing it to direct competitors, instead pitting it (favorably, I might add) against desktop CPUs.... it’s old tech??
The TrueDepth camera system, that will also likely not be matched during its entire existence, is that the “old tech” you’re referring to??
I tell ya what- if the ONLY thing you have in your arsenal is nitpicking that the XR has a (phenomenal) LCD display, rather than an OLED... the only thing old is your tired & trite complaint.

Ignorance at its best. I guess when you're so engulfed in Apple you have no idea what's happening outside of the Apple world.

 

[nburwell]

True that.

Just reduce it to 5.5” and make it USD 649 and the sales will more than double.

No truer words have been typed out. Apple should heed this advice.

 

[buststyles]

If you haven't noticed, Apple have massively increased their pricing across all platforms. And please don't brag about their "edge to edge" display. The Xs and Xr represent a compromised design. The notch is hideous.

I do not know why you think I was bragging I don't make the iPhone I just buy it. lol. Just pointing out that as far as head and chin on an LCD displayed phone they have the most edge to edge screen. And that embarrassing notch that has since been copied by other manufactures because of the big foreheads they wanted to get rid off on their "edge to edge" phones. All design is a compromise. If you know of a way to get around the X class phone compromises somebody has a big payout for you.

 

[raccoontail]

No wonder! The XS is too big, too heavy und much too expensive. The XR is much too big, much too heavy und too expensive.

Agreed! They need to make a smaller phone with the A12. Hopefully the lack of demand will at least result in some good holiday discounts from retailers.

 

[NCWildcat]

Interesting. FWIW, still loving my XR, and for the first time in a while I really want to just go into an Apple store and buy ALL of the new products they've introduced this fall.

I love my XR, and my wife loves hers. I don't understand why it gets so much hate. I do miss 3D Touch but it is far from a deal breaker, and I expect Apple to expand the haptic feedback functionality. I get FaceID, a great camera, a very nice screen (don't care about OLED, and I don't watch much video on my phone, that's what my 65" 4K TV is for) and the battery life is outrageous. It is heavy compared to my 7, operative word being compared. It is not heavy as an object on its own. It's totally fine. I kinda like it. I picked up the XS and Max and they feel almost too light. If my wife and I had opted both to upgrade to and XS that would have been $700 more. I'm just not willing to spend that much. Would I ultimately prefer an XS? Possibly, but not at that cost.

 

[raccoontail]

I love my XR, and my wife loves hers. I don't understand why it gets so much hate.

XR is a fair price for what you get, but it's just too big for many people. I miss being able to sit down without taking my phone out of my pocket first.

 

[Marzel]

They’re using formulae which plugs in numbers from their channel checks. If they know to produce the widget took X count from a supplier then if it decreases or increases for X then that is an accurate predictor. Channel check data is real and surprisingly accurate nowadays.

First of all, we are still talking about model fitting so obviously they aren't 100% accurate. Second of all, if they provide huge ranges and update their numbers every few weeks, then they are obviously going to seem accurate. The same type of "channel data" that Kuo used for his last (apparently inaccurate) predictions are the ones used for this one. What would be far more useful is for analysts to make accurate predictions that end up being correct after a year. Meaning using far more elaborate patterns to accurately predict without revisions in September the sales of the whole year. Otherwise what you have is just a trend that changes every week and only appeals to the stocks market (which is either way to a large degree immature and reactive).

 

[Baymowe335]

Their service increases has come from 1 source - google to be the default search engine.
Apple sold 6% fewer iPhones in 2018 compared to 2016

You're comparing the outlier year of unit iPhone sales (pent up demand for large screen phones) to 2018. Yes, they sold more phones, but again, outlier year. They also sold $11B more in revenue this year, so it's still a record iPhone year.

You're discounting a lot of other services and remember, Google WANTS to be default search on iPhone. No need to apologize for taking their money if you're Apple.

Services is going to be a $50B in 2019 business and "reports" say Google pays about $9B/YEAR. Apple is doing about $10B/QUARTER now. The increase is coming from all kinds of services.
[doublepost=1542125656][/doublepost]

Why not show your calculations on the percentages on each and how it matches the ASP, in my rough calcs, Apple must have sold less of the more expensive models to achieve the $766 ASP, considering the XS/MAX are $999-$1449

One possible calculation to achieve an ASP of $767 would be
34%: XR/XS/XSMax
66%: 7/7+/8/8+ series
Noting that 2018 was mainly X and below, i think the ASP in 2019 will drop.

One flaw in your calculations. The XR has not been calculated in ANY public numbers (our most recent numbers are for Calendar Q3). XR was not even on sale yet. XS/XS Max were on sale 12 days. Essentially, none of the new phones were in the recently reported ASP.

So your calculations are totally meaningless and you have no credibility because of this oversight.

The simple average price of base model new phones is $949. ASPs aren't going down.

 

[Fidgetyrat]

I get that apple was a bit shocked that people paid out the !#@$ for the X when it was released, but that doesn't mean they are going to continue to pay out the !@#$ every year. The more expensive phones get out of the gate, the slower the upgrade cycle will become.

 

[Baymowe335]

Stats wise Apple sold the same amount of phones in 2018 as they did in 2017 (0.4% more) but 6% less than they did in 2015. Apple is selling less of the higher priced phones and their stockprice is taking a dip because of it.

Apple is not selling fewer higher priced phones. Look at the ASP. More total units for a higher ASP than ever before. iPhone revenue grew 18% y/y. Can't argue with facts. If they sold fewer higher priced phones, they wouldn't have record iPhone revenue...by A LOT. Over $11B in fact.

Unit sales in 2015 were based on pent up demand for large screen phones. Apple just did $166B in revenue for iPhone, easily destroying the revenue for iPhone in any year.

Apple did $11B more in iPhone revenue in 2018 than in 2015 while selling fewer units. How did they do this? Selling MORE high priced iPhones. Simple math and about $100 more in ASP.
[doublepost=1542126195][/doublepost]

I switched from being a long time iPhone user to an Honor 8 when Apple couldn't deliver an iPhone 7 plus in jet black.

What a great device and it opened my eyes to how good many other manufacturers have become. Keeping features many people want (like TouchID and headphone jack), innovating way more than Apple the last couple of years, no comparison really, yet much lower prices than Apple. Apple has alienated too many of its core customers by trying to be "courageous".

After the Honor came P10 Plus and P20 Pro and soon Mate 20 Pro (better overall than any iPhone yet priced as the cheapest Xr over here in Europe (Sweden in my case). To me, Apple has lost its ways. However, I'll gladly come back if they start making high end phones, filled with features people want and that truly represent value despite the high prices, like they used to.

Huawei has put my focus back on smart phones; great devices at prices that truly represent value, that's why I've started upgrading way more than before, it's just so much fun!

Edit: And I still have an iPhone 6 just to keep in touch with iOS, but it rarely gets used.

Great anecdotal story.