Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

[Bone Ranger]

Noted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has issued a new research note today, cutting his shipment estimates for the iPhone XR due to several factors. He believes that some of the decline will be offset by higher demand for iPhone XS and older "legacy" models, but he is still reducing his overall iPhone shipment forecasts by 15-20 percent for the first quarter of 2019.

Kuo believes that iPhone shipments for the current quarter will be in the same 75-80 million range he previously predicted, while he has lowered his first-quarter estimate to 47-52 million from a previous range of 55-60 million.

Kuo's prediction is somewhat curious given that he raised his early iPhone XR estimate a little less than a month ago and cited stronger demand than seen for the iPhone 8 last year with the potential for more stable demand over time.

Apple's stock price is down over 4 percent today, outpacing broader market declines and falling to its lowest point since the end of July.

Article Link: Ming-Chi Kuo Cuts iPhone XR Lifecycle Shipment Estimates by 30 Million

LOL.
Seems every fall, there are rumors of slow sales....then APPLE blows them out of the water, again.
APPLE stock is on sale today people.

 

[Baymowe335]

Apple should have kept a 4" screen phone like the 5SE. I still have a 5SE and its still fast and useful. When companies stop listening to the people..HOUSTON we have a problem.

Quite the opposite. People are terrible at articulating what they want, because they don’t know. No one said they wanted an iPhone, remember?

There is no data to support a huge demand for a 4 inch form factor. That’s why Apple doesn’t have one. They have all the data and analysis known to man and decided on this route. It wasn’t based on a hunch.

 

[Glideslope]

Since the XR has the exact same ppi as the 8/8 Plus, perhaps you'd like to try your fairy tale again with some facts? Like some evidence that TouchID is preferred by millions?

For those wishing for an SE2, I sympathize even though I prefer the 8/X screen sizes, but I those thinking the SE2 would be a best seller are delusional. The SE in its first year, even as the cheapest model, with the latest processor confounding analyst expectations, still was the worst selling model. I think the 5s black was the pinnacle of iPhone design, and hope the new IPads presage that the Xi will be a similar design and offered in Space Black matching the Watch, but I don't delude myself in expecting an SE2 to be a best seller. Perhaps 4 years of sales, and accommodating the few that want a smaller phone will justify a release in the spring.
XR sales may influence whether Apple thinks an SE with FaceID and edge to edge screen is worth it to them.
[doublepost=1542135462][/doublepost]

Why is Porsche increasing their prices so much when competitors offer similar technology for less? I don't get it.

Except I do. Similar isn't the same as, and a Porsche isn't a Toyota. The iPhone costs more but it offers more, and amortized over its supported lifetime, is comparable in price for a better experience.

Life is too short to compromise if you don't have to.

8+ is 401 ppi. XR is 326 ppi. Enjoy your Face ID, and have some facts next time.

https://www.apple.com/iphone-8/specs/

 

[dilbert99]

Apple is not selling fewer higher priced phones. Look at the ASP. More total units for a higher ASP than ever before. iPhone revenue grew 18% y/y. Can't argue with facts. If they sold fewer higher priced phones, they wouldn't have record iPhone revenue...by A LOT. Over $11B in fact.

Just as an exercise, why don't you try to work out the percentages of each model, when I tried it,
it seemed to suggest that apple sold mostly lower priced models. If they sold more higher priced models the ASP would have been even higher. The ASP looks skewed towards lower priced phones to me (when trying to achieve that ASP in a spreadsheet).
[doublepost=1542146691][/doublepost]

You're comparing the outlier year of unit iPhone sales (pent up demand for large screen phones) to 2018. Yes, they sold more phones, but again, outlier year. They also sold $11B more in revenue this year, so it's still a record iPhone year.

If I remember correctly you are a shareholder and you show bias in picking your facts.
I simply pointed out that recently Apple took a dip in Sales which was much greater than the increase you saw last year. All I am suggesting is not to cherry pick.

PS would really be interesting to see your percentages of each model to achieve the ASP, it wa an interesting exercise for me. As always lots of ways to get achieve an ASP, so would be good to see a different one to what I calculated. But I don’t think you can.

Ps iPhone sales have been flat for 4 years so they are not selling more phones

 

[78Bandit]

Apple told us the X was the best selling iPhone.

Please post the source where they said it was the best selling phone of all time.

They repeatedly said it was the best selling phone in 2018, but considering they were selling the X, 8, 8 Plus, 7, 7 Plus, 6s, 6s Plus, (as well as the 6 and 6 Plus in India) and SE during that period, any attempted correlation to 2015 when they had just the 6, 6 Plus, 5c, and 5s is impossible.

They likely sold quite a few less units of the X than they did of the 6 and 6 Plus back when they were current.

My back-of-the-napkin estimates based on ASP are the 6 and 6 Plus accounted for 75% of total sales in 2015. My estimate of 2018 sales are the X accounted for 25% while the 8 and 8 Plus garnered a combined 30%.

 

[dilbert99]

You're comparing the outlier year of unit iPhone sales (pent up demand for large screen phones) to 2018

The iPhone 6+ with larger display came out in 2013. Edit - 2014.

 

[Baymowe335]

The iPhone 6+ with larger display came out in 2013.

No it didn’t, but that doesn’t change my statement about a spike in unit sales.

 

[dilbert99]

No it didn’t, but that doesn’t change my statement about a spike in unit sales.

Oops, checked wrong line, was 2014 which is still two years before 2016.

Apple sales have been flat for 4 years and prices are rising hence asp is increasing.


Please feel free to share your figures. Otherwise you are just trying to get your share price up.

 

[Baymowe335]

Oops, checked wrong line, was 2014 which is still two years before 2016.

Apple sales have been flat for 4 years and prices are rising hence asp is increasing.


Please feel free to share your figures. Otherwise you are just trying to get your share price up.

Nothing I can say or do I say has an impact on AAPL share price.

Not sure what the argument is here anymore. Apple just sold the second most iPhones ever (save the outlier year I mentioned) at the highest average price ever.
[doublepost=1542149191][/doublepost]

Please post the source where they said it was the best selling phone of all time.

They repeatedly said it was the best selling phone in 2018, but considering they were selling the X, 8, 8 Plus, 7, 7 Plus, 6s, 6s Plus, (as well as the 6 and 6 Plus in India) and SE during that period, any attempted correlation to 2015 when they had just the 6, 6 Plus, 5c, and 5s is impossible.

They likely sold quite a few less units of the X than they did of the 6 and 6 Plus back when they were current.

My back-of-the-napkin estimates based on ASP are the 6 and 6 Plus accounted for 75% of total sales in 2015. My estimate of 2018 sales are the X accounted for 25% while the 8 and 8 Plus garnered a combined 30%.

I never said it’s the best selling iPhone of all time...we will never know that or the mix.

I never specified flagship. They are flat out selling more higher priced phones by definition if the ASP is up. A higher priced phone could be an iPhone 8 with 256GB. I don’t care where the dollars come from, just that they sell more high priced phones.

It’s pointless to try to understand mix because it’s not reported. Sure, it’s possible they sold more “flagship” iPhones in 2015, but neither of us can confirm that and there were fewer options. What I can confirm is the most dollars ever were spent on iPhones and the second most units ever, save the large screen outlier year.

The reason why I said Apple is selling more high priced phones than ever is that the ASP confirms that. On average, an iPhone Apple sold was more expensive than ever.

 

[dilbert99]

Nothing I can say or do I say has an impact on AAPL share price.

Not sure what the argument is here anymore. Apple just sold the second most iPhones ever (save the outlier year I mentioned) at the highest average price ever.

Just to remind you then. You said that the asp was increasing because Apple was selling more phones at a higher price.

I called you out on this, stating that sales have been flat for the last 4 years because prices have risen 62% in 6 years. Higher prices are the reason for higher asp and not increase in sales of higher prices devices. Simply just higher prices.

You also can’t back up your average price hearsay with factual calculations. I’m beginning to think you were absent when they did averages at school. Ouch

Honestly keep it factual and civil and I will try to do so too

 

[Baymowe335]

Just to remind you then. You said that the asp was increasing because Apple was selling more phones at a higher price.

I called you out on this, stating that sales have been flat for the last 4 years because prices have risen 62% in 6 years. Higher prices are the reason for higher asp and not increase in sales of higher prices devices. Simply just higher prices.

You also can’t back up your average price hearsay with factual calculations. I’m beginning to think you were absent when they did averages at school. Ouch

Honestly keep it factual and civil and I will try to do so too

They are selling phones at higher prices. I don’t care if prices were raised. Good. They are selling the same amount or more iPhones (besides the outlier large screen year) at higher prices. ASP is an all time high.

I will concede I have no idea what the mix is to drive the ASP so much higher, but the best selling iPhone X (confirmed by Apple) likely was a big driver.

I am right by the very numbers Apple reported. If you’re selling $166B in iPhones, you’re selling them at higher prices. Your argument is that’s invalid bc they raised prices? I don’t care...the sales were made.
[doublepost=1542149736][/doublepost]

Just as an exercise, why don't you try to work out the percentages of each model, when I tried it,
it seemed to suggest that apple sold mostly lower priced models. If they sold more higher priced models the ASP would have been even higher. The ASP looks skewed towards lower priced phones to me (when trying to achieve that ASP in a spreadsheet).
[doublepost=1542146691][/doublepost]
If I remember correctly you are a shareholder and you show bias in picking your facts.
I simply pointed out that recently Apple took a dip in Sales which was much greater than the increase you saw last year. All I am suggesting is not to cherry pick.

PS would really be interesting to see your percentages of each model to achieve the ASP, it wa an interesting exercise for me. As always lots of ways to get achieve an ASP, so would be good to see a different one to what I calculated. But I don’t think you can.

Ps iPhone sales have been flat for 4 years so they are not selling more phones

I’ve already posted a mix when iPhone X was released.

 

[dilbert99]

They are selling phones at higher prices. I don’t care if prices were raised. Good. They are selling the same amount or more iPhones (besides the outlier large screen year) at higher prices. ASP is an all time high.

I will concede I have no idea what the mix is to drive the ASP so much higher, but the best selling iPhone X (confirmed by Apple) likely was a big driver.

I am right by the very numbers Apple reported. If you’re selling $166B in iPhones, you’re selling them at higher prices. Your argument is that’s invalid bc they raised prices? I don’t care...the sales were made.
[doublepost=1542149736][/doublepost]
I’ve already posted a mix when iPhone X was released.

You stated as FACT, that the asp was because Apple was selling more higher priced phones. Please don’t do that if you don’t know basic math.
Also don’t believe Apples carefully worded statements relating to Apples higher priced phone sales. Do the math yourself and you will see that they are selling more lower priced which is keeping the asp low.

If the higher priced phones were selling two things would happen.
1) the asp would increase closer to $1000
2) Apple would release the figures (or at least unqualified statements in the keynotes, and unit sales in the annuals).
[doublepost=1542150190][/doublepost]

They are selling phones at higher prices. I don’t care if prices were raised. Good. They are selling the same amount or more iPhones (besides the outlier large screen year) at higher prices. ASP is an all time high.

I will concede I have no idea what the mix is to drive the ASP so much higher, but the best selling iPhone X (confirmed by Apple) likely was a big driver.

I am right by the very numbers Apple reported. If you’re selling $166B in iPhones, you’re selling them at higher prices. Your argument is that’s invalid bc they raised prices? I don’t care...the sales were made.
[doublepost=1542149736][/doublepost]
I’ve already posted a mix when iPhone X was released.

I said calculations not predictions. Work out the asp and you will see what I mean

 

[Baymowe335]

You stated as FACT, that the asp was because Apple was selling more higher priced phones. Please don’t do that if you don’t know basic math.
Also don’t believe Apples carefully worded statements relating to Apples higher priced phone sales. Do the math yourself and you will see that they are selling more lower priced which is keeping the asp low.

If the higher priced phones were selling two things would happen.
1) the asp would increase closer to $1000
2) Apple would release the figures (or at least unqualified statements in the keynotes, and unit sales in the annuals).
[doublepost=1542150190][/doublepost]
I said calculations not predictions. Work out the asp and you will see what I mean

Yeah, they are. Higher ASP = higher priced phones. You both are trying to imply I was stating certain models. We don't know that. All my arguments are based in the data.

Higher ASP, increased unit sales over 2017 = More iPhones at higher prices...by definition.

For commentary, I know the X was tremendously successful because they built their entire 2018 iPhone lineup around it.

/discussion

 

[78Bandit]

I never said it’s the best selling iPhone of all time...we will never know that or the mix.

I never specified flagship. They are flat out selling more higher priced phones by definition if the ASP is up. A higher priced phone could be an iPhone 8 with 256GB. I don’t care where the dollars come from, just that they sell more high priced phones.

It’s pointless to try to understand mix because it’s not reported. Sure, it’s possible they sold more “flagship” iPhones in 2015, but neither of us can confirm that and there were fewer options. What I can confirm is the most dollars ever were spent on iPhones and the second most units ever, save the large screen outlier year.

The reason why I said Apple is selling more high priced phones than ever is that the ASP confirms that. On average, an iPhone Apple sold was more expensive than ever.

Jeez, you just simply can't admit that Apple could be (and likely is) selling fewer high-end phones than they were in 2015. They are selling them at a much higher price than they had been, but they are still selling fewer of them.

You can also confirm unit sales were DOWN between 2015 and 2018. That alone should tell you they are selling FEWER phones no mater how hard you try to stretch the math. ASP doesn't confirm they are selling MORE phones, only that the ones they are selling are more expensive on average.

 

[dilbert99]

Yeah, they are. Higher ASP = higher priced phones. You both are trying to imply I was stating certain models. We don't know that. All my arguments are based in the data.

Higher ASP, increased unit sales over 2017 = More iPhones at higher prices...by definition.

For commentary, I know the X was tremendously successful because they built their entire 2018 iPhone lineup around it.

/discussion

Ok, reply with the total unit sales, total sales $, and what percentage of phones made that mix and I will plug it into the spreadsheet I made when I was trying to see how I could get a 750asp. I arrived at a conclusion that the split was about 60 odd percent lower prices devices

 

[Baymowe335]

Jeez, you just simply can't admit that Apple could be (and likely is) selling fewer high-end phones than they were in 2015. They are selling them at a much higher price than they had been, but they are still selling fewer of them.

You can also confirm unit sales were DOWN between 2015 and 2018. That alone should tell you they are selling FEWER phones no mater how hard you try to stretch the math. ASP doesn't confirm they are selling MORE phones, only that the ones they are selling are more expensive on average.

Yeah, so more expensive phones. I don't care how they got expensive or what the mix is (other than the fact the X is the best selling model in the lineup). I never said they were or weren't selling more flagships, besides the X. I said the revenue was higher in 2018 than in 2015 which means they sold iPhones at MUCH higher prices, indicating sales of higher priced iPhones. I never said which ones they were, although I do think the X exceeded expectations. That's why ASP has recently blown out Analyst forecasts.

I also acknowledged they are selling fewer iPhones in terms of units than in their outlier year of 2015. Off the top of my head, 233M vs 218M. As an investor, I want to see revenues and EPS higher...I don't care about unit sales. The confirmation of Apple's enormous pricing power means iPhone is stronger, not weaker, than ever.

They just sold the second most units ever for an ASP of ~$760/iPhone for $166B revenue, a record by 8%. Phenomenal.

Even as an investor, I'm elated they are not reporting unit sales anymore. People need to focus on the full Apple story.
[doublepost=1542151274][/doublepost]

Ok, reply with the total unit sales, total sales $, and what percentage of phones made that mix and I will plug it into the spreadsheet I made when I was trying to see how I could get a 750asp. I arrived at a conclusion that the split was about 60 odd percent lower prices devices

All you need to do for 2018 is used 218M units, $166B in sales, see the ASP was ~$762 and make iPhone X the best selling in the mix. Those are the only facts we know. I couldn't care less about the mix and I never said otherwise.

All I said is Apple is selling MORE higher priced iPhones than ever. Not flagship. Higher Priced. That could be a 256GB model, an iPhone X, a Plus Model...I don't know. Ultimately, you need to get to $762. Math is math...need some high priced phones to get to $762. I also couldn't care less they increased prices. That was never something I separated. I don't care if the iPhone 7 now costs $1,000. That would be a higher priced phone in my statement.

I care how many dollars consumers are spending on iPhone. It means they WANT it. I don't care if Apple increased prices to get it, they are buying big storage, flagship, whatever. I just want consumers to vote with dollars and they did, to a record.

 

[Fthree]

Well we shall see which one is worth more in a year. lol

It is all relative. XS max can help some be so much more productive in their work days generating them more money in their pockets. AAPL has been getting crushed with no end in sight.
[doublepost=1542154483][/doublepost]

Even Kuo's lower estimate means that 1% of the entire human population of the world will buy an XR within the first 12 months. Not including all the people buying the Xs and Xs max as well as older models. For premium phones at the top of the price range, that is phenomenally good. It's pushed Apple to a trillion dollar company (at least briefly). If Apple holds those sales they will continue to be a trillion dollar company. But when they dominate that much of the world, how much upward potential do you think the stock has?

Services will little by little get more expensive as the device sales slow this is why they are blowing it out still with declining device sales (and the higher MSRP of course) If apple can make it so that they get people on a every 2/3 year upgrade cycle but make up for it on services they will continue to dominate as services can go up to an irrational price once the people are hooked.
[doublepost=1542154559][/doublepost]

Well we shall see which one is worth more in a year. lol

Of course I would love for the shares to go back up to their highs!!!

 

[Act3]

Anyone remember how much VCR's cost when they first came out? Same with DVD players, desktop computers, etc... Heck, console video games have been a standard $59.99 for how long now despite the improvements in the game quality over the years, Eventually the phones will get to a point,if not already, that sales will die off unless they can add must have features. Of which, none of the latest offerings really offer that. For some reason , the smartphone market keeps raising prices while the tech has sort of plateaued.

 

[ipponrg]

As an investor, I want to see revenues and EPS higher

As an investor, I am rather skeptical over whatever rhetoric you or they have for not sharing information that once was shared.

If unit sales are flat, that means it's not growing when there is still a significant portion of the population that does not have an iPhone. Selling to the same people year after year doesn't portray the type of narrative I would want to see when a company describes "growth".

I agree that revenues should be a base line and not unit sales, but Apple's confidence doesn't necessarily parallel their actions.

 

[Spizike9]

The original iPhone was $599 for 8gb (~$740 today) AND required a 2-year contract. I’d say the prices now are decent, especially considering how much more of a device these are.

iPhone 4 was 650 without contract and 16gb. Was made out of steel and glass like the Xs. What was the price of flash memory back then per gb compared to now? I’m asking because I honestly don’t know.

 

[iMEric984]

Not true at all. Have you never used a galaxy , been using galaxy pay for years, their iris scanner and fingerprint sensor came be used to pay for any mobile transaction. Samsung pay you can use anywhere visa is accepted not just where apple pay is. Crazy talk

Apples Face ID can be used for mobile payments and secure apps. Samsung face scan and iris scan can only be used to unlock the phone.
[doublepost=1542172486][/doublepost]

Ignorance at its best. I guess when you're so engulfed in Apple you have no idea what's happening outside of the Apple world.

What is ignorant about this post? Please share.
[doublepost=1542172818][/doublepost]

The Xr is ugly as hell in person. Felt fat and thick, with giant bezels that online videos and photos don't portray accurately.

I sincerely think it's one of the ugliest iPhones to date.

How are the bezels big when you compare it to any other older generation? Have you not seen the bezels on the 6-8 models?? I think it’s a beautiful design. I own an XS Max. I still get a little envious when I see the white or red XR.
[doublepost=1542173991][/doublepost]

Exactly this. Last time the threat were from Samsung, and Apart from the OLED Display which was good but not great ( It has its pitfalls that many users many not notice, but has since been fine tuned and improve to a ridiculously good level. ) its software utterly sucks. And it was priced at close to Apple level. ( With heavy commission and discount from Retailers )

At the time Apple was innovating like hell, along with RDF from Steve Jobs.

Apple has since then sold more than double the iPhone, generating more than double or even triple the profits. But what innovation have they made?

Now their competitor is Huawei. And I agree the Honor is a bloody good phone. Mate 20 Pro Camera is god damn amazing. All the Chinese phone makers take most of the good UX design from iOS and moved them over to Android.

Would people continue to paid for Apple's top end iPhone? Sure. They need to prove they are worth that much. Right now I don't think iPhone XS Max is there.

What makes these Chinese phones so great??? The high end ones are just as expensive as iPhones. Sure they look pretty, and might have some cool gimmicky features. But do they stand the test of time?? Will they get software and security updates after a year?? Is their users privacy secured??? I know for a FACT my $1249 iPhone XS Max will last at least 5 years, and still be able to run the latest apps, software, and have security. It’ll never have even a hiccup. When I see these Chinese brand phones, they all come with gimmicky stuff. Apple implements software and hardware that will be beneficial to the user. In screen fingerprint reader is cool and all, but 3D face scanning is more secure.

 

[miniyou64]

All ten of you on MR forums...

Oh Im so sorry that since you dont have the issue you dont care and think its non existent.

 

[98winds]

The 2006 flip phone lasted to 2015. Will the 6s be good to 2024... Smartphones are handy, I prefer the iPad mini.

Last sunday morning, passing by the Apple store, the place was jam-packed. No worries about the X-mas Q numbers, but isn't the subsequent Qs Kuo is worried about.

 

[Jimrod]

For those wishing for an SE2, I sympathize even though I prefer the 8/X screen sizes, but I those thinking the SE2 would be a best seller are delusional. The SE in its first year, even as the cheapest model, with the latest processor confounding analyst expectations, still was the worst selling model.[doublepost=1542135462][/doublepost]

I think you're missing the point, you could have a new SE with iPhone 8 screen size and much smaller body if they used the new design language - I think many (based on thousands of forum comments) were hoping that's what the X would be, not an even bigger phone than the 8. The SE was the worst selling model - it was an ancient design in tech terms with no flagship features, It's like trying to sell a 2012 model car with a new engine, it was never going to set the world alight. Apple have never launched a flagship spec small phone along with other models so comparisons are Apples to Oranges (pardon the pun).

 

[Abazigal]

As an investor, I am rather skeptical over whatever rhetoric you or they have for not sharing information that once was shared.

If unit sales are flat, that means it's not growing when there is still a significant portion of the population that does not have an iPhone. Selling to the same people year after year doesn't portray the type of narrative I would want to see when a company describes "growth".

I agree that revenues should be a base line and not unit sales, but Apple's confidence doesn't necessarily parallel their actions.

https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2018/10/22/the-gray-markets-impact-on-iphone-pricing

Flat unit sales mask the fact that Apple’s iPhone install base continue to grow via sales of second hand iOS devices. If anything, it’s precisely because iPhones appear to hold their value so well that users are able to sell off their iPhones at reasonable prices so they can continue to upgrade on a regular basis. It’s not as bad as people are making it out to be.